confirmed going to 0$, short now and rebuy at -10$
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Fundamentals win, although I say chart is bullish.
... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto!
this is not at all how technical analysis works... actually my point was that this analysis is highly ambiguous. |
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That's not going to fix that the EMA has been breached twice and is now sloping downwards.
Lagging indicators.... they change with the market. |
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People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!
What was the gameplan? I missed it. buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance. This is not like the other rallies at all:  ... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto! |
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do timescales mean nothing to you? we made a higher high on the 1-day scale. not saying that this bullish price action is not significant, but since we've been making lower highs for the past 4 months, i'm pretty sure your statement is premature.
If this wasnt playing out exactly to my expectations, I might agree with you. never mind the chart, its the sentiment and fundamentals that are crying out reversal right now. and on a large time scale, we have been diverging for many days. longer time-scale indicators point to a downtrend that is gaining momentum. there is some divergence on the shorter time frames, but that is what bulltraps in a bear market look like. take a look at the daily-scale CMF and MACD:  http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg150zigDailyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gCMFzi2gMACDzvzlonly today's data point is diverging, and today's candle is still premature. so, again, we've got countertrend action, but only on the daily scale, sub-daily if we consider a possible retracement in the next 12 or so hours. i would close that long soon, if i were you. you've already made some nice profit on it. Fundamentals win, although I say chart is bullish. the bears have too much to lose, and they will. there is evidently too much buying pressure, not even the very confirmation of your worst fears can bring this market down as seen yesterday. THE NOOBS HAVE SOLD!! |
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People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!
What was the gameplan? I missed it. buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance. There are some things different about this wedge. namely......?? and yet you call it a wedge? |
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People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!
What was the gameplan? I missed it. buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance. |
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People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!
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do timescales mean nothing to you? we made a higher high on the 1-day scale. not saying that this bullish price action is not significant, but since we've been making lower highs for the past 4 months, i'm pretty sure your statement is premature.
If this wasnt playing out exactly to my expectations, I might agree with you. never mind the chart, its the sentiment and fundamentals that are crying out reversal right now. and on a large time scale, we have been diverging for many days. |
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This is why it is going lower, much, much lower: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20131211005909/en/BitPay-Exceeds-100000000-Bitcoin-Transactions-Processed#.Uzp95qIryhoThe more success Bitpay has, the worse for Bitcoin. Because Bitpay is all about liquidating BTC. How could we have missed that! (Slams forehead into the wall) I saw the silver chart pattern indicating a long grind lower ahead, and I saw the asymmetry in appeal for merchants vs. customers, but I didn't put 2+2 together. The Gyft owner has a bullish bias so that is why he is saying $350. In fact, markets don't work that way. They have momentum and overshoot either upwards or downwards. Bitcoin is pointed down now and it will be a vicious cycle that feeds on itself. It is structural and we have to go down and restart from a low equilibrium. the fact is, merchants and reatailers still have no effect on price. even overstock is a drop n the sea. sorry! |
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 im in a good position, thats what Im in. |
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So you are saying we are no longer in a bear market? Can I quote you on this?
yes, no longer in a bear market. I am not therefore saying we are in a bull market, because we need a higher low before we can say that. but according to that chart, we have a higher high, and that does not happen in a bear market. So I guess all those higher lows we have had since 1163 were just mirages? Like the one that took us 710. That didn't happen, right? If you want to argue like that, then 1200 never happened either, did it? your chart says sideway for the next 3 days at least, and that a higher low means bull market. sorry if you are short. there is nobody left to bail you out, not even fearful noobs. |
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thanks for the chart. have you noticed that the prior 3D candlestick high has been broken through like a knife through butter.
That is a higher high, watch out for the higher low, because technically this is no longer a down trend!
if thats what you need to keep telling yourself then i think you are in denial. go ahead, short the market! |
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So you are saying we are no longer in a bear market? Can I quote you on this?
yes, no longer in a bear market. I am not therefore saying we are in a bull market, because we need a higher low before we can say that. but according to that chart, we have a higher high, and that does not happen in a bear market. |
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 use this to help your decision. thanks for the chart. have you noticed that the prior 3D candlestick high has been broken through like a knife through butter. That is a higher high, watch out for the higher low, because technically this is no longer a down trend! |
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It could grind much lower than $300. We could be in for another brutal bear market, takes us down to $80.
It could. but you need an argument for that to be stronger that the current reversal signal. I dont think it is at all likely, and wishful thinking. I am following the game plan that we all agreed on 4 months ago. I seem to be one of the few who has not forgotten. |
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for the last 3 days, the market has been pressured upwards in risk off situations.
over the weekend, when there was no chance of a PBOC announcement, the market was stable and lifted. furthermore, news of law enforcement on chinese exchanges failed to carve new lows on western based exchanges.
- there is lots of buying pressure.
today the market is nervously creeping up despite yesterdays fiasco.
If by the end of the chinese day there are no more announcements, the chances grow slimmer that there will be one before April 15th.
This said, I believe we should expect a rally in the next 48 hours, perhaps entering the low 500s.
hollar out. |
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Did you read the article or not?
yes I did read the article. he said it will form a base in the next quarter, not crash. as for the range he describes, why would you believe he has the formula to predict $350 bottom? 436 bottom has given us all the signals we need. all the past bubbles have consolidated in a wedge. thats a sequence of 5. if the price dropped to 350, this one would break that rule. wedges have significant meaning in consolidation. Did you read his points about why there is now more structural selling? Specifically that there are too many retailers and retailers convert immediately to fiat. And consumers are not growing as fast. Because Bitcoin is wonderful for merchants (no chargebacks) but sucks for consumers . dont forget that the mother of all uses of bitcoin will be money transfer. That could be organised in months. anything to do with retailers and consumers have never had an impact on the market. the market cap is speculative. |
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Trend reversal always happens when despair is the greatest. Maybe the overall pessimism here is a good indicator for that.
It happens when people really get desperate, bearish sentiment is at its maximum, doomsday prophecies begin pouring in.
And just in that moment, when it is least expected, the bounce comes. You cannot really predict it.
Technical indicators cannot tell you when it will happen. They can only give you small hints.
I think we could be friends  people seem to neglect this the most. |
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To think that no fresh fiat is heading to exchanges is absurd...
did anyone say exchanges? all this time, just like the winkelvii have done, bitcoins are being gobbled up off exchanges. one day, this will catch up to the exchanges, like today perhaps. everyone be like, "wheres all the coins? I thought there were more. " |
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