Has this 40K btc purchased news actually been confirmed by anyone as legitimate? I saw it linked on some Chinese site. Perhaps it's a Chinese pump before their next dump.
This purchase could technically happen 300 times. But who is to say it will happen even one more time? It takes more than just some occasional institutional investor to cause a reversal - there needs to be a trend of new people getting interested and actually wanting to use the technology, or a new market.
The daily chart is trumped by the weekly ema downcross. All the little patterns and indicators you are looking at will just get erased with a random giant red candle out of nowhere.
yeah it was confirmed. how could it happen 300 times? that's wishful thinking. 300 market orders? or shall they put up a 5 million BTC buy wall on bitstamp? I am using the daily chart. and I wish that you could guarantee that my 'little patterns' will be wiped out, but you cant. what we are seeing now believe is the market preparing for July, when for the first time legit exchanges will be opening in America. we will see all the legit money that's been held back, and perhaps china follow the lead of the USA as expected. |
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Chessnut will be right one day.
Unless Bitcoin goes to zero. Then he may never be right.
hmm well if I remember correctly I was right just yesterday, and the day before. When we pass 3000 yuan you will be looking at a daily chart in the bulls favour. so it could be many months before buyers are exhausted. |
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ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.
"Abruptly?" evidence? You have made a bald assertion with nothing to back it up. Where else are Chinese miners going to sell? well practically, they can or cant sell, if they can, they will sell it to offshore buyers. if they cant, then they wont. it's a fact that this will be resolved. there is a finite supply of fools who bought to get rich quick. they will sell, and never sell again. but I guess anything is possible, so it must fall right? As long as BTC is concentrated in the hands of people who have a negative fiat cash flow outside of BTC appreciation, selling pressure will continue. I know this because I am one of those people. I can survive for years before I run out, which means that if many others are in a similar situation, the down trend can last for years. That doesn't mean the down trend will last for years, it only means it can. A crash is actually the bullish scenario. A long painfully drawn out slide is also possible. The market could reverse at any time for any reason or no reason, but we are playing probabilities, not possibilities. the probability is another argument, when gaming companies are purchasing 40k bitcoins on a risky day I think the bear argument is losing it's grounds. this trend is showing strong signs of reversal. |
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ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.
How could they run out when they are still running their illegal exchanges with a bunch of volume and the owners are trying to pretend like nothing is wrong? There are also new huge sources of coins coming in every week from other sources now. (hackers, mtgox, silkroad, drug dealers) Maybe I'm wrong about the above. So, if the trend breaks, I can act on it then. But why would I preempt the trend breaking, all the way at the top, when I'm most likely to fail and get clobbered by a brutal move? If you sum the risk reward of each of these decisions as it has occured about 8 times during the trend now, then you will find that not preempting the trend reversal is a much more profitable strategy. The one time I have to pay somewhat higher price after reversal is confirmed will be much better than the 7 times I would take a huge loss. is the volume fake, or not? there are things that are constant, and there are things that have finite impact. if you will attribute the fall to chinese bank ban, which seems evident in the news, the market will reach equilibrium after it is resolved. We don't know exactly how much Chinese volume is 'fake' and how much is real. You don't have to attribute the falling to one particular thing. Just that supply > demand. There are millions of free coins floating around right now from various sources as well as a lack of buyers and interest for several reasons. This manifests into a downtrend. When the tides turn for whatever reason, you will see the downtrend reverse and indicators start to flip on the weekly chart. 40k bitcoins were bought just the other day, injecting more than 1billion yuan into the market cap. how many times can that be sustained? I see on the chart divergance on the macd on a daily scale, a head and shoulders, and the same on an hourly scale. the bear run is now weaker than the bull run, and whats more, nobody seems to care about the chinese news last night. we are rallying. im beginning to think the word trend is becoming cliche. |
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ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.
How could they run out when they are still running their illegal exchanges with a bunch of volume and the owners are trying to pretend like nothing is wrong? There are also new huge sources of coins coming in every week from other sources now. (hackers, mtgox, silkroad, drug dealers) Maybe I'm wrong about the above. So, if the trend breaks, I can act on it then. But why would I preempt the trend breaking, all the way at the top, when I'm most likely to fail and get clobbered by a brutal move? If you sum the risk reward of each of these decisions as it has occured about 8 times during the trend now, then you will find that not preempting the trend reversal is a much more profitable strategy. The one time I have to pay somewhat higher price after reversal is confirmed will be much better than the 7 times I would take a huge loss. is the volume fake, or not? there are things that are constant, and there are things that have finite impact. if you will attribute the fall to chinese bank ban, which seems evident in the news, the market will reach equilibrium after it is resolved. |
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ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.
"Abruptly?" evidence? You have made a bald assertion with nothing to back it up. Where else are Chinese miners going to sell? well practically, they can or cant sell, if they can, they will sell it to offshore buyers. if they cant, then they wont. it's a fact that this will be resolved. there is a finite supply of fools who bought to get rich quick. they will sell, and never sell again. but I guess anything is possible, so it must fall right? |
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 keep an eye on that channel. |
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ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.
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As an EW analyst I went to the effort of making this illustration of fractals, if not only because some might find it interesting to see. I do not mean for it to be predictive, because by large it is retrospective.  |
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Just sent an email to the Agri Bank hotline to shutdown BTCCHINA as they are violating the BAN
Lets hope it works....china Im sorry but its not you but us and we are moving on
imagine if you get an email back -"what ban?? der no ban?" haha some insider info. |
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Everyone is so bullish right before the trap and buys in to get burned, during some slow weak push up towards the major downtrend line.
we just retraced 100% of a china ban sell off, we have divergance on a daily scale, inverse H&S on a daily scale, divergance on an hourly scale, inverse H&S on an hourly scale, a clear corrective retracement of a bull run off major lows, and fresh fiat entering the market. Dont you think this is a dangerous time to put your trust in the down trend?  |
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A trip to 3000 yuan would make this look like the most beautiful TA and EW set ups Ive seen for ages. |
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In a 0...9 scale of relative price, we are now at 0.2.
It is a good opportunity to short.
It's the time to finish the bad traders.
 you think now is a good time to short? the entire movement of the news has been retraced! we are at critical levels, and everyone still wants cheap coins. If you are a bad trader, you should short now, because it is the time to get rid of you and move on   I get it now. I knew something funny was going on when you said 'short' in that context. |
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 if you like H&S |
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In a 0...9 scale of relative price, we are now at 0.2.
It is a good opportunity to short.
It's the time to finish the bad traders.
you think now is a good time to short? the entire movement of the news has been retraced! we are at critical levels, and everyone still wants cheap coins. |
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all as usual: ...only some hesitation / staring at the screen / biting on nails / hoping - until it has got enough attention by the market until the first start to sell because they can't stand the stress / want to secure in fiat then it drops because the other sheep follow in panic... (sell before ist starts to drop ) I watched all the news releases before... they used to be impulsive, now they are corrective. It was around 12 bans ago that we were at 450... here we are again. a gaming company just bought 40k BTC.... there's your fresh fiat. The market is preparing for the next key date... 10 may. By the way it is behaving now, Id say it is preparing to reverse by that date, as one would expect. |
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Is this the day we have been waiting for, when the FUD comes and nobody cares? sell the rumour, buy the news.
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There is a new pattern with these sudden dumps and a recovery that started yesterday i think
yeah, and this one seems over already. I dont think this is new news anyway. wreckless panic. |
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It's estimated that there are currently only 2-3 million people WORLDWIDE who actually own any bitcoin at all. By contrast, the population of just one large U.S. city, like New York, is ~8.3 million people. Imagine what happens to the price when suddenly tens of millions, even a hundred million people around the world eventually want to buy some bitcoin. This could happen faster than anyone could imagine.
this is very true, considering 10 million new users would be competing for a minority of the coins that exist, as many are hoarded/destroyed and will not be sold until many years from now. the wonders that a  10bil market cap would do for bitcoin..... |
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obviously, speculation is a game of probability. If you use your experience, your knowledge, and your philosophy, you may have an edge in the game.
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