no bans on chinese saturday or sunday likely - maybe another reason why we are rallying.
I think this rally has flattened out, the question now is whether there will be another one or if we'll slowly go down again for a while. I am all BTC at this point but I'm tempted to short and see if I can increase my coins. well the bear run was so weak, and this is a strong and impulsive move that seems unexplained. I think the most likely explanation, we are continuing the bull run. |
|
|
|
|
no bans on chinese saturday or sunday likely - maybe another reason why we are rallying.
|
|
|
|
|
Primary wave took 1.5 days to complete, third wave took 2.5 days to complete. how many days will fifth wave take to complete?
|
|
|
|
Finally an impulse up. Hourly candle looks very similar to the one from $409 to $475 on the first wave of iii up.
.... many of us here believe this is wave V. can you please illustrate iii wave interpretation? We are in agreement on the count - refer to my previous chart. This is what I meant with the other comment. sorry I misread your post. glad we all agree! this is a powerful reading. |
|
|
|
The above shows the bearishness. In Bitcoin's history, only once (out of 1000+ times) has one month change been worse than -60% negative.
Whereas about 15% of 30-day periods has actually seen the price at least double (+100%), a feat that the current forecasters think is almost impossible.
Since 2013-1-1, 16.3% of 30-day periods have seen the price at least double.
But has the monthly price ever doubled directly after a monthly low? that is my (only) argument against $1000 in one months time. EDIT ok lol it has BUT has has the monthly price ever doubled after the historical capitulation low? |
|
|
|
People who are new to bitcoin will follow the mass or more intelligent people will gather all needed information about bitcoin their selfs and will do decisions on their own. That's correct! Yes, i'm almost sure this is not 2-3 days question. We will see bitcoin situation in atleast 2 weeks 2-3 years before we will see "the situation" for what it really is. (hint: santa = fiat) In all seriousness though, here's what's really going down.
P.S. SPOILER ALERT Mega +1 |
|
|
|
yes, laws of physics play out every where, and they are reflected on the charts. but I would rather know the fundamentals. am impulse might precede a third wave, or it might be the end of a cycle, or it might be an A wave. only with fundamentals can we know which one it is.
Agreed, but you should rather know both the fundamentals and waves. And you should know all possibilities for future waves. That would allow you to define possibilities for future fundamental events. yep yep I agree with that. lets watch the this blow out fifth  |
|
|
|
nano did fuck all.....
her husband must be furious! I bought at 355, I sold at 420. I bought at 405, I sold at 520. I bought at 488, shorted at 490. now I have bought at 484. You will find evidence for all these if you care to look.
Nano took a lot of time to carefully go through and unmask your delusion multiple times in a dandy little timeline. It was gift from her to us. She practically put a li'l red bow on it. I'm not going to bother with it again when the truth is clear. All we need is for you begin deliriously shouting at us that you've "called the bottom" when you have done no such thing and we'll rename you BJAllen. You two can Indian Leg Wrestle over who needs the most attention. nano took little quotes especially out of context. a very selective researcher indeed. I promise you, she is not a speculator or a trader, or experienced to say the least. she has no idea whats going on here, no wonder she is hurt. why dont you take your own advice, dont believe everything you read. |
|
|
|
yes herd psychology makes EW robust, and is just as important fundamentally as GDP for example. but which piece of information would you rather have - the company that you own stock in is about to burn down, or the company that you hold stock in has possibly completed a fifth wave?
I would want to know both. By the way, I want to explain you how wave fundamentals work. For example, you have a business. Your company becomes successful. What is a fifth wave of your company's success? Durig this wave you are delusional, you are shouting "WOW!! Such success!! We are the greatest! No one can beat us!! Wow!" At this time your competitors (for example) are watching you and getting evil or annoyed or planning something bad for you. At one moment (when Fib timer triggers) they decide to start real actions against you. Something *bad* for your company is happening and stock of your company burns down. Does Bitcoin have "competitors"/enemies who are just still "watchig" now? Of course: banks, governments, hackers etc. Does Bitcoin have "holders" who are shouting "Wow! Bitcoin is successful! F*ck you bankers!" - of course. I think it's time to trigger "the Fib timer" soon. Thanks to Bitcoin Foundation that does great lobby to "soften the blow" in the future. yes, laws of physics play out every where, and they are reflected on the charts. but I would rather know the fundamentals. am impulse might precede a third wave, or it might be the end of a cycle, or it might be an A wave. only with fundamentals can we know which one it is. |
|
|
|
I have been expecting this.
...as you always say, even when you weren't. I wonder sometimes if you are more delusional than Risto. I have proof in illustrations that I have been expecting this... I said this morning I was long from 484. I haven't missed a cent in this bullrun. I was expecting this. ... read it and weep. Nano already covered the bases well enough a couple days ago. Begone, welp! nano did fuck all..... I bought at 355, I sold at 420. I bought at 405, I sold at 520. I bought at 488, shorted at 490. now I have bought at 484. You will find evidence for all these if you care to look. |
|
|
|
yep, and the second floor was a buy target. I didnt get exactly 460, I closed my short and bought at 484 this morning. |
|
|
|
I disagree again, waves reflect fundamentals, they are synonimous, this is not magic or superficial. The reason why news seems to often coincide with junctures is because when the market is at extreme junctures the market is vulnerable to news. news items come every day, bad and good, but most are not significant enough for long term effect, unless the market is positioned for reversal. there is also a conspiracy component, but the waves are still only a reflection of the fundamentals/insider behaviour.
I can burn down a car factory at will, at the throw of a dice, and the stock in that company will crash for certain if it results in destruction. I will cause a wave, and the wave will reflect the destruction.
the arguments that we can predict presidential elections with EW is part of the social mood feature, sentiment.
I would say waves == fundamentals. What is Fib time? It's a timer in your brain. Timer for responce/reaction to events. Every fundamental event is a someone's reaction to someone's action. So, our own life is a big cycle which has waves that act according to Fib time (a timer in our or someone else's brain). So we can predict lots of fundamental events using this method. Because every event is a human's reaction to something. yes herd psychology makes EW robust, and is just as important fundamentally as GDP for example. but which piece of information would you rather have - the company that you own stock in is about to burn down, or the company that you hold stock in has possibly completed a fifth wave? |
|
|
|
I have been expecting this.
...as you always say, even when you weren't. I wonder sometimes if you are more delusional than Risto. I have proof in illustrations that I have been expecting this... I said this morning I was long from 484. I haven't missed a cent in this bullrun. I was expecting this. ... read it and weep.   possible short scalp for the day, or long entry target. buying all I can at 480 - 500. |
|
|
|
Finally an impulse up. Hourly candle looks very similar to the one from $409 to $475 on the first wave of iii up.
.... many of us here believe this is wave V. can you please illustrate iii wave interpretation? |
|
|
|
I disagree..... EW analysis does not permit us to ignore fundamentals. Bitcoin is expanding at an exponential rate. It cannot stall or speculative weight will damage it.
I would say 20% max of a 266 retest.
Elliott waves are much more than just a price movement. I'm pretty sure that fundamentals follow waves, and not waves follow fundamentals. It means you can predict real life events using EW. Example: before New Year I analyzed RTS index (Russian Trade System - main economics indicator). I saw the picture: a big crash in 2008-2009 (economic crisis), and then a little growth and stabilization. I assumed that the crash could be a wave A, following growth is a wave B and according to Fib time there must be another crash in spring of 2014 (wave C). Russian economy looked pretty stable in late 2013, so I assumed that there would some bad events which could cause another wave of crisis in Russia. What happened then? Russian/Ukrainian conflict which was followed by US/EU economic sanctions (import of lots of products became limited), and then RTS index and Russian ruble fell to 2009 lows. How could I know about possible Russian/Ukrainian conflict and American/European sanctions? I just knew that something *bad* could happen, nothing more. I disagree again, waves reflect fundamentals, they are synonimous, this is not magic or superficial. The reason why news seems to often coincide with junctures is because when the market is at extreme junctures the market is vulnerable to news. news items come every day, bad and good, but most are not significant enough for long term effect, unless the market is positioned for reversal. there is also a conspiracy component, but the waves are still only a reflection of the fundamentals/insider behaviour. I can burn down a car factory at will, at the throw of a dice, and the stock in that company will crash for certain if it results in destruction. I will cause a wave, and the wave will reflect the destruction. the arguments that we can predict presidential elections with EW is part of the social mood feature, sentiment. |
|
|
|
|
The market is simply exhausted. was I the only one uninspired by that bear run? we are in an up trend. there will be no banking news over the weekends, the chinese are preparing for a risk on theme. I have been expecting this.
|
|
|
|
|
I disagree..... EW analysis does not permit us to ignore fundamentals. Bitcoin is expanding at an exponential rate. It cannot stall or speculative weight will damage it.
I would say 20% max of a 266 retest.
|
|
|
|
  Im betting on this playing out. This minor break out could soon penetrate resistance @490 and there is little to hold a rally back after this, the bear run has been very weak and stalled. |
|
|
|
|
.... it has absorbed something like 500 BTC so far, probably 1k or so, there are huge orders on BFX sometimes....
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
blow out fifth wave plz 
