I would also like to see same type of charting applied to internet adoption. I'm fascinated but I'll silent now and let the people who know what they're talking about speak.
Good work bro
cheers, no problem. I'd like to see a complete chart of the internet but I dont think there is one chart that represents the internet as charts may represent bitcoin. There's RyNinDaClem, authority on EW around here. that graph is a better illustration of fractals than bitcoin has to provide, but nice to compare the two. |
|
|
|
Edit- oddly enough, just before I saw your thread, I was just remarking that the (general) mood (sentiment)across bitcointalk has noticeably taken a turn towards more positive compared to the gloom of the last couple weeks. Bullish?
sentiment works like this - imagine everyone who is subject to craze buys the item subject to craze. At the point where the maximum amount of those people have bought, the price will be pushed up very high because of the demand they cause. However, having just bought that thing you are likely convinced for some reason or another that it will increase further in value. so when a price of something is at an extreme, an ATH, and a LOT of people are very bullish, that means that most demand is already expressed, and the slightest of supply to that market will cripple it (it will crash). we are at a bottom extreme, and imo most people still think they are in for some 'cheap coins'. that is bullish. today, the sentiment is turning slightly more bullish, but this is not a sufficient contrary indicator because we are not near a bullish extreme. in this case, it is a good thing - people are realising that this is not the apocalypse. |
|
|
|
Could you use this for prediction? My caveman brain sees it always going down (smaller price)
The most I know about fractals is stuff stoned hippies have told me at raves.
It's like the golden mean in art design isn't it? Of course, that would mean everything is constantly being reduced?
Trippy none the less.
I posted a second chart. did you see that one? very significant. basically fractals are self similar, not identical. Of coarse we cannot see the future 100% using patterns on charts, this is just the way that natural forces resolve in a liquid market, in fractals. the most important thing about EW analysis/fractals are the junctures they offer. if you can identify an exact point of price/time where your expectations will be met/broken, then your trades will have a very high risk reward ratio, and you will be able to handle the stress of trading more mechanically. when the junctures are obviously related to fundamental events and panic sell offs etc, these junctures have fundamental significance, and should indicate reversals where they are seen. 339 is a prime example of an large impulsive wave terminating after panic selling. I bought at 355 when I saw this, not knowing what the future would bring, but simply knowing that the panic was over. |
|
|
|
As for DanV, he has been calling Bitcoin correct for months. Everyone else has not. Just watched a video of his from Jan 5th, on the eve of the $995 top, and he was stating that his analysis was telling him that we could expect a retest of the $450 low (he was using MtGox charts back then). Who else was stating that back then? No cunt! He was right, everyone else was wrong, which would suggest to me that DanV has the all important context of his EW cycles correctly aligned, whereas everyone else doesn't.
well thats just plain false. I doubt there are any other EW analysts that you know of. My count is yet to be validated, so you cannot say so much about mine. You've had so many fucking counts invalidated, if they were steps we could all walk up and touch the moon ourselves, without bitcoin's help. You talk a good talk, but you are biased towards being a bull - you only see bullish things. You are not impartial. At any rate, if you are wrong about this, will you stop posting your charts on this forum for a while - say 6 months? say hows that bet going ay ol buddy windjc? seems like you have missed out by a few yuan. must have been a critical juncture ay? did you take my advice to buy at 430? lol. I know how much money you've lost being contrary so you say. Im a winner and I cant wait for you to fill my sell orders. |
|
|
|
As for DanV, he has been calling Bitcoin correct for months. Everyone else has not. Just watched a video of his from Jan 5th, on the eve of the $995 top, and he was stating that his analysis was telling him that we could expect a retest of the $450 low (he was using MtGox charts back then). Who else was stating that back then? No cunt! He was right, everyone else was wrong, which would suggest to me that DanV has the all important context of his EW cycles correctly aligned, whereas everyone else doesn't.
well thats just plain false. I doubt there are any other EW analysts that you know of. My count is yet to be validated, so you cannot say so much about mine. |
|
|
|
|
that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.
|
|
|
|
that is a primary wave, not very bearish. even in a bearish case, it must be followed by an impulsive C wave. however, the third wave of that count is an abc. not valid. a better count is an inpulsive leading diagonal, it has all the characteristic features. it also implies that we have begun the first wave of III or C towards 470 at least.  |
|
|
|
I can imagine right now PBOC is being infuriated by the rally and are devising some kind of emergency strategy to actually get the accounts closed as we speak.
why? they dont care about rallies. they only have to take responsibility for money lost under legal systems, not illegal. that's why they stopped bank deposits. |
|
|
|
follow the fractals, and you will see this is not going to his plan. we should be going down right now. instead we are loser to breaking up out of the wedge on huobi than breaking down. his analysis is resting on a $30 move. dont put too much faith in it. there are alternative counts that are playing out better right now.
I don't think you have been following what he has said fully. If you had, you would know that we are some $150 away from the resistance trendline which would have to be breached to confirm DanV's Wave 4 has bottomed at $340. On the otherhand, we are a $30 move away from breaching the long term support trendline, which if Bitcoin holds above, would establish a strong short-term bullish case, but if it falls below, then we are looking at the large cycle support line currently hovering at $100 (which isn't to say that Bitcoin will go to $100). DanV's position isn't so much that Bitcoin is headed into the ground from here, but that if there is a break-out above these trendlines, then Bitcoin isn't going 2 da moon. It may take out the ATH by a small margin, it fall a bit short. The crux of his argument is that we are somewhere in Wave 4 territory, and that Wave 5 can never have the strength of a Wave 3 (i.e. Bitcoin aint going to da moon anytime soon). I dont see your argument why 'short term' if up, long term if down. not consistent. a wedge is a wedge, it can go up or down. I have seen his charts, I know his position. he admits that he is ignorant of the fundamentals too. the fifth wave that is coming could take out 10k even if it is not a blow out fifth wave. we will break new highs. the analysis that I believe he is wrong about it the descesding impulse down to 266. Wave C has clearly terminated. it was an impulse and it has no steam left. this count is about to be invalidated. |
|
|
|
To me it looks like the current action does not match the previously repeating fractal pattern. If I had to guess, the underlying action of the market is changing into a new one.
yep in EW every fractal begins and ends a possible juncture. it's an opportunity for a previous or smaller fractal/s to express themselves in alternation creating only self similar properties. |
|
|
|
There's a good chance that once bitcoin is integrated with wallstreet, 'investing' in bitcoin is going to molded to fit in with every state law and inefficiency in with the existing system that bitcoin was created to avoid. I'd be suprised if the network itself was even used for anything useful at that point. Bitcoiners are sellouts.
I'm sad to say that bitcoin won't probably ever reach Wall Street. You can't sell an currency to someone, when half of it has been released during times, where it was used only for drug trade and various other illegal shenanigans. When a person has even a half a brain, then (s)he won't invest a meaningful amount into something, where (s)he has to have blind trust that some successful drug dealer just won't dump their 1mil.+ coins and run away with the money. The idea of private open-sourced monetary systems will remain, and it will bring forward plenty of interesting opportunities. But bitcoin is a joke and a gimmick, just like the "financial experts" that hover around bitcoin. and the USD is not used predominantly by criminals? lol, it is printed by criminals! You realise that open sourced monetary systems have promise, and bitcoin is just that, but it is doomed to fail? what will succeed, ripple? lol. the cat is out of the bag and no parallel crypto can compete with bitcoin, and no centralised alternative can either. |
|
|
|
DanVs analysis is breaking up as we speak. wave C is likely complete. the IV wave does not need to bottom within the price range of wave iv, but it tends to bottom above the price low of wave IV ($50). Indicators are diverging to bullish favour within the scale of the correction. clear H&S forming, and we have made a strong base on top of the lower wedge trendline. Bullish EW counts have been playing out accurately assuming the 339 low was followed by a primary.
Erm, no it isn't and we are much closer to breaking the support trend (currently $425) than the resistance trend (currently $595). Should the market avoid breaching the extended cycle support trendline, and breach the resistance trendline that has been with us since $995 in early Jan 2014, then I shall certainly look to take a tentative long position. Currently, the minor resistance trendline is at $480, but if it is going to breach, I imagine that it will occur around the $460-$470 mark. For DanV's Wave 4 to be proven to have bottomed at $340 (which he isn't ruling out by the way), Bitcoin is going to have to get up over $580, providing this thing is to play out within the next few weeks...it might not.....market might stagnate for months...not like it hasn't done that before. follow the fractals, and you will see this is not going to his plan. we should be going down right now. instead we are loser to breaking up out of the wedge on huobi than breaking down. his analysis is resting on a $30 move. dont put too much faith in it. there are alternative counts that are playing out better right now. |
|
|
|
Not just ema; everything on the weekly chart is different from 2013. All the indicators. Everything is diverged and disjoined. So I don't see why there would automatically be any similarity.
There is also a very strong argument for Bitcoin Being on a grand cycle Wave 4 EW retracement. With Wave 3 starting at around $5 in May 2012, and terminating at $1160 in Dec 2013, as per DanV (if anyone hasn't seen his charts/videos I suggest they give his name a google). If this were to pan out, then a 62% (textbook wave 4 retracement ratio) retracement would equate with an ultimate bottom price of around $260, which is of course the price of the April 2013 high. It would all be textbook stuff if it pans out this way and from the short time I have been learning TA and watching Bitcoin, Bitcoin does tend to adhere to textbook TA principles. Granted, zoom in to the short term charts and try to start applying these TA principles there and expect to get chopped about like crazy. But over the bigger picture, Bitcoin likes to tick all the TA 101 boxes. Don't say it doesn't, cos it does. DanVs analysis is breaking up as we speak. wave C is likely complete. the IV wave does not need to bottom within the price range of wave iv, but it tends to bottom above the price low of wave IV ($50). Indicators are diverging to bullish favour within the scale of the correction. clear H&S forming, and we have made a strong base on top of the lower wedge trendline. Bullish EW counts have been playing out accurately assuming the 339 low was followed by a primary. |
|
|
|
Okay. This is a first for me in a long while. TO DA MOON! +1 it's like trying to push down a strong spring with your hands...at the end it will blow on your face... i like all this with China  TO DA MOON  DONT think about zebras! and DONT think about buying bitcoin! |
|
|
|
Hey Windjc, how's your 1200btc short doing? Do you still have it open?
Most of it. Yes. I have learned in the past, that the worst thing you can do it overreact when the market moves against you. It ebbs and flows. Certainly I am not happy about the announcement from the exchanges that caused all the shorts to close on Houbi, but I think it smart to see how this all plays out. Sometime soon, the exchanges have to come clean about what is going on. And, whatever it is that is going on, there is no way that the chinese market is bullish on fresh fiat. All we are seeing there right now are the same coins being traded back and forth and the only money buying is money of the sidelines. So, until I see a break of trends on high volume with confirmation, I won't be making any sudden panic trades. I'm with Windjc here, OK - I am not shorting 1200 BTC, but I am relaxed with a high fiat ratio - I can't see a case for real CCMF that makes me feel I will miss any train just now. Sure, I want to see rockets and choo choos, but I still have stepped bids at below where we are. My overall position (inc cold storage) will be happy with a leap up, but my trading stash is balanced for a move either way and I think that is entirely reasonable right now. We shall see - I am watching and waiting... and still a little bit bored Windjc is following my trades as a contrarian. I told him to buy at 430. If you follow him you might have to buy when the price gets a lot higher this week.  |
|
|
|
 Interesting things are happening on bitstamp. Price managed to deny every downwards trendline I am able to draw. Bull market, here we are again! whats more, is those trend lines are turning into support. How about you guys try using the logarithmic chart. you mean this triangle that's about to break out in the direction from which it came?  normal scale charts are equally significant as log charts. they each give strong signals. Didn't that triangle break downwards in March? In EW the fifth or 'e' wave of a triangle tends to test the triangle trend line in question. the breakout was almost immediately rejectsed, it failed. If we assume that the triangle did break to the downside, the the primary has been 100% retraced which invalidates any further downside. a bearish situation could only arise now if we assume there is no triangle, ask DanV. although his analysis is getting weaker by the day. |
|
|
|
Interesting things are happening on bitstamp. Price managed to deny every downwards trendline I am able to draw. Bull market, here we are again! whats more, is those trend lines are turning into support. How about you guys try using the logarithmic chart. you mean this triangle that's about to break out in the direction from which it came? normal scale charts are equally significant as log charts. they each give strong signals. |
|
|
|
Interesting things are happening on bitstamp. Price managed to deny every downwards trendline I am able to draw. Bull market, here we are again! whats more, is those trend lines are turning into support. |
|
|
|
|
yup It's always great to hear your take Lucano.
|
|
|
|
In the first chart (post 301) why do you automatically assume extended 3rd? There is no overlap.
The CNY chart seems plausible, but the 3rd wave of the iii looks to be the shortest wave so I'm not sure.
If the CNY chart is indeed a 5 waver, then the abA count in the Stamp chart might be right. The different markets do follow each other but sometimes take slightly different paths to get there. Stamp with a 3-3-5 and CNY with a 5-3-5 could be that type of situation.
i wasnt aware that I labelled an extended third. it are you referring to the (i)? that could be just iii. either way these charts are behaving impulsively. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
