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A blow off fifth wave is probable in such an instrument, because of the speculative/emotional nature of it. We have been following the analysis on a log scale, and if a blow off fifth wave was to present its self in exponential terms, who knows where it could go, although it is still likely to be less than $10k.
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I think China's wariness of Bitcoin is bullish in the sense that it means that one of the most powerful countries in the world is worried about this open source software project. They see its potential appeal.
I think it is also bullish that they have not banned it outright. (they say they cant, but they can 'ban' it just like a drug) if they understood the threat it is to them from the beginning they would not have wasted any time. It also seems that insiders are front running the news - they may have invested interest (very bullish) with plans to open exchanges in the USA, I think the PBOC will change their policy, having said to follow their lead. |
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when was this? this is the best news Ive seen for months! macdonalds has the publicity to make bitcoin a common word, and as a bunch of crooked corporates they have vision to monopolise, increasing the value heaps. imagine if macdonalds would offer discount for paying with bitcoin  everyone would try it out for fun! You should be more skeptical of things like this. the idea was nice, but obviously it was not a legit photo by any means. although it comes from a VERY reliable source (Adam) |
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when was this? this is the best news Ive seen for months! macdonalds has the publicity to make bitcoin a common word, and as a bunch of crooked corporates they have vision to monopolise, increasing the value heaps. imagine if macdonalds would offer discount for paying with bitcoin everyone would try it out for fun! |
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Reverse H&S yesterday - target above 460, then if we breaks 455 - there will be another H&S (less nicely looking) with even higher target 475.
The Chinese scare does not work any more.
I think we'll rebound significantly.
Yes it works. It works just as good as the first time. 1 rumour about closing whatever on Twitter right now and we'll be below 400 easily. actually the last rumour was not very eventful. keep in mind that around 12 bans ago we were at around ... 450. |
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well they have all been pretty super bubbles, if you look on the log scale.
The chart is showing strong signs of reversal lately. I think we will test highs before july. cant say we will break them, but I am quietly confident.
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Yea, and if this count is correct (big flat after ATH), then we are at the beginning of new rally. So all we need to know now is if we are inside 2nd or b wave. I guess it would become clear around 600-700.
thanks, and in your opinion, or anyone else, how does this shape up to the 266 low alternative? I think 266 is a highly sentimental number, never will be touched. and more significantly, to forecast any further lows is dismissing some serious divergance. |
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RuNinDaClem, C = impulse. I hadn't looked for it before you assured me that it had to be an impulse, but it actually seems better than the zigzag earlier. This is cearly five waves, the last clearly terminal, and diverging. what are your thoughts on this? or have you covered this already?  |
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if they sold 380,000 btc for 3m, that would be $12 each. - must be a portion, or Im missing out on some seriously 'cheap coins' |
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well if thats the hard EW rules, ok. I just fell like its the same either way - consolidation. contracting liquidty, contracting range. The c wave was rudely interrupted by news, so possibly it was a failed c wave, but I'll give your analysis benefit of the doubt.
I'm not saying to follow my counts. You have the ability to count, so you should count it and re count it and when you think you have it, count it again. Weigh your options, gauge risk, then count again. You can come up with many counts for the same group of waves so don't be overly biased in one direction or the other. One more piece of advice would be to always start with a significant low or high. I know you stated somewhere that you start at the ATH, well good! Do that every time and you will continue to be successful with EW. sure, but the point of the thread is discuss, and maybe reach consensus. In an EW thread I'd give preference to your count, although I would only use it if it inspired me to. |
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well if thats the hard EW rules, ok. I just fell like its the same either way - consolidation. contracting liquidty, contracting range. The c wave was rudely interrupted by news, so possibly it was a failed c wave, but I'll give your analysis benefit of the doubt.
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RyNinDaCleM, can you comment on my B wave wedge intrpretation? It seems to stand out to me as the most obvious interpretation, considering that this bear run is weaker than the previous bull run - while I think your primary count is very clever. - im talking aout this one.  To be a triangle, it needs to have 5 distinct waves and each wave needs 3 subwaves. If the first rise after your a= x then the final rise to make your b needs to be at least x*.618 in length to be a valid C. It is not, so I wouldn't count your triangle as it's own abc either. there are many species of triangles no? wedges describe the case where wave c fails to exceed the extreme of wave a. this is not a 'triangle'. |
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RyNinDaCleM, can you comment on my B wave wedge intrpretation? It seems to stand out to me as the most obvious interpretation, considering that this bear run is weaker than the previous bull run - while I think your primary count is very clever. - im talking aout this one. |
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Edit This is why you don't use EW alone  There are too many variables to it and it can burn you. ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS use other indicators to back up your trade. the eyes are best indicators. I dont use any others. did you know that the brain can be trained to see using a digital signal from a digital camera passed through the nerves of the tongue? after some training, blind people have been able to navigate walking through a room using a digital camera, just like bats can fly with sonar. I think some people seek consistency with indicators, but I think the inconsistency within a trader is the root of all our troubles. |
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Anyone watching stamp orderbook? Someone sold 350btc into first bid wall (second wall was untuched), next minute there is another 260 bid wall... Amazing support in those hard times  Yeah, and very healthy bid depth compared to some other days. |
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What are your forecasts? haven't seen any lately
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EW was a pattern observed retroactively for decades worth of data in saturated / mature markets. Bitcoin is none of those.
EW certainly applies to bitcoin. very clearly. the constant is not the market, the constant is people/herd psychology - old as the hills. wave counts can be ambiguous, but I promise you Bitcoin offers some of the clearest junctures you will eves see. this is because people are very emotionally attached, and prone to panic/greed. Granted. Nevertheless, 'wave counts can be ambiguous'. Aware of the representations of aggregate psychology as manifestations of bubble-like activity. For the most part, this falls within the realm of common sense. Wave counts encompassing bubble phases are insignificant and being adamant about in-depth wave counts in this case is simply obnoxious.one way or the other, physics does fall into the realm of common sense. wave theory is very detailed, I couldnt call a top with common sense. I agree 100% with that said in bold. I am not such an anlayst. rule of thumb, the price can go up, or down, at any point in time |
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In EVERY ABC the C is 5 waves. The A can be either 3 or 5 and the B is of course always 3, but the main thing is that C is 5 waves.
Im sure that's not a rule, many ABC corrections are composed entirely of overlapping zigzags without a trace of impulsive behaviour. the standard model is corrections overlap, and impulsives do not. |
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Erm... Or are you talking about waves from ATH? I meant possible zigzag from 340.
yes, talking about ATH. 100% certain that A wave is a zigzag. |
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The two problems I see with this chart is that 1) your large C should sub-divide into 5 waves not 3(ABC).
2) is that your I off the 339 bottom is not 5 waves, imo. I suppose it can be if you really force it, but not with any kind of proper proportions.
Edit:
To help better explain the 1-2-1-2 to Queeq
It is the same as nested 1-2's Call it an extended 3rd. Ex. I, II, 1, 2, 3, 4, III, IV, V
Im not banking on a primary wave, but the chart is tell me that alternatively a wave C is coming to 550 - 600. the market has turned unexpectedly (not to EW) after BAD news. it has fundamental drive. my overall C wave divides into ABC. is that incorrect? abc - abc - abc is not uncommon? |
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