Ukraine has been actively preparing for its attack on the Donbass all winter. There was a lot of talk about the possibility of a Russian invasion, but however, it turned out to be a complete surprise for Ukraine, NATO intelligence simply overslept it. The genius of Putin's strategy lies precisely in the fact that, according to the military canons current as of February 2022, it was technically impossible - too small forces participated in Russian military exercises near the border with Ukraine and NATO intelligence did not take this threat seriously. This gave Russia at the start of the operation the staggering advantage of a surprise strike from which Ukraine still seems to be in shock.

As Francis Scott Fitzgerald said, "The mark of a first-class brain is the ability to keep two mutually exclusive thoughts in mind at the same time without losing the ability to think". There are rumors that I am the best analyst of the Russian locale, but this is not certain.

Well, why didn't they do it? Why didn't they decide to de-blockade Mariupol or to strengthen the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the East in order to avoid closing the boiler? The Russians left the north, but the grouping of the Ukrainian army near Kyiv remained, what are they doing there? Eliminate the imaginary Russian threat, as if there were not enough real threats in the east and south?

It seems that success in the north could not be sustained with the approach of the spring thaw and the growth of leaves on the trees. The risk of being cut off from supplies and the complete loss of the northern group outweighed the risk of a possible provocation at Chernobyl. Today, IAEA specialists are to arrive there and assess the situation on the spot. I hope Ukraine has enough remnants of common sense not to turn its country into a radioactive garbage dump, will see.

I think Putin is quite healthy, perhaps at that moment he was more tense than usual.

Putin’s famous long table, which has already become a meme, was used by him only for face-to-face dialogue with those politicians who refused to take a test for covid-19 to Putin’s doctors (apparently out of fear of giving Russia their DNA sample). This is a common precaution during a pandemic, if you have not forgotten about this word. Politicians who agree to and successfully pass this test are much closer to Putin, including direct physical contact through a handshake when appropriate.

You may be very surprised, but the Minister of Defense of Russia, General of the Army Shoigu, did not serve military service and does not have a military education. Perhaps his public appearance in civilian clothes means that the military operations of the Russian army in Ukraine are now rather led by General of the Army Alexander Dvornikov. Although Putin is still the supreme commander in chief, and Shoigu is still the minister of defense, of course. But Dvornikov seems to have a big operational carte blanche and he is the one who draws arrows on the map.

Mariupol is a show of force. The attackers' lack of numerical superiority, the use by Ukraine of dominant heights in urban development and civilians as a human shield - did not stop the Chechen assault battalions and the people's militia of Donbass. The city will be restored, with the exception of Azovstal.

If there is an order to clean up Nikolaev, Kharkov, Odessa, Lvov or Kyiv, they will do it again, now you know about it and all of Ukraine now knows and all of the World now knows. Russians fight not by numbers, but by skill, and for them there are no impossible combat missions.

You are right, a real civil war has been going on in Ukraine for 8 years, the genocide of the Russian-speaking population of Donbass. Russia is not at war, she came to stop it. I call a spade a spade.

In the meantime, the EU is censoring the internet lol. I hope no one gets arrested for reading my post. Take care of yourself there in the stronghold of the victorious democracy.

ps A video bonus of the military chronicle from Andrey Filatov, now he is wounded in the hospital and uploads footage from the last days of the cleansing of Mariupol to the network. Here is the work of the rather exotic Russian wunderwaffe UR-77 of the engineering troops, which is usually used to clear a passage in minefields. One shot contains about 800kg of explosives, a harsh thing.

Or maybe you just have a lot of shit in your head?  

No matter how many tanks you have, you can't take with 50,000 soldiers a city of 3 million that doesn't want to fly the white flag. Even now, Russia does not have a numerical advantage in Ukraine, this operation is technically impossible - and therefore it will be included in military textbooks. I have already said above that the attack from the north was a diversionary tactical maneuver - in order to pin down the grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kyiv, which now cannot help in the Donbass, and in order to quickly take control of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and exclude possible provocations by Ukraine with radioactive contamination of the area.

No one is bombing your cities, calm down already. The only object that was bombed was the Azovstal plant in Mariupol, until the moment the Azov commander said that there were civilians in the bunker. During the two months of the operation, about 40 air bombs were dropped on Ukraine - all on Azovstal. I'm already tired of our conversation today, I'll go to sleep.

You don't follow the dynamics of events very well. It seems that 80+% of all Ukrainian tanks and planes were destroyed in the first few days of the operation by massive missile strikes throughout Ukraine, when these tanks and planes were parked in rows. (If Putin had immediately ordered to hit the army barracks with missiles, 80% of the manpower of the Armed Forces of Ukraine would have been destroyed in the first days, but this did not happen). After the dispersal of tanks, they have already ceased to be a target for missile strikes, with rare exceptions, because it is difficult to hit a single tank with a rocket and it is stupid to waste a rocket on a single tank. Do you understand anything about the military or just like to press buttons on the keyboard with a smart look?

This is not my logic, there are some established rules for declaring war - for example, you need to hand over the appropriate note to the embassy, and then the war began. And after the signing of the peace treaty, the war ended. The last war on planet Earth was declared by Russia to Japan in August 1945 and it has not yet ended, because Russia and Japan have not yet signed a peace treaty. Therefore, do not throw around the word "war" in vain, not every armed conflict is a war.

You don't seem to understand this. Russia is not at war with Ukraine, this is a military special operation. If Russia had really declared war on Ukraine, it would have ended a month ago. There is no martial law in Russia, there is no mass mobilization, normal peaceful life is going on in all regions, with the exception of three regions bordering Ukraine, where a yellow level of terrorist threat has been declared. I do not know with whom Ukraine is fighting there, but Russia did not come to this war. And be glad it is.

Destroyed Ukrainian tanks are now rarely included in the reports of the Russian Defense Ministry. It seems that recently there was an attempt to break through in the Kharkov region on 10 tanks, 8 of them were destroyed. And so I don’t even remember that in military reports recently it was about tanks. A tank is an inconvenient target for a missile strike, I think they are more often burned from Ka-52 Alligator helicopters during combat missions.

I think we are both telling the truth, but looking from different angles. The DPR statement of April 25, this is after Russia took control of the 65th arsenal near Kharkov (which is the largest in Europe, by the way). Plus, in the East, Ukraine, for objective reasons, has long had some difficulties with the logistics for transporting ammunition to the front line, I think fresh batches of weapons from the West settle mainly in the West or in the Center of Ukraine. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine made large stocks of ammunition directly in their fortified areas in the Donbass in winter. Earlier, I saw a video with a fighter of the people's militia of Donbass, he said that they attack lightly, using mostly captured ammunition.

Take care of yourself, puppy.

ps The confession of a captive officer of the Marine Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Mariupol that he raped a woman with a Ukrainian passport in front of her husband, whom he killed with his gun in the process. Demilitarized and denazified by Russia.

It's amazing how low your level of critical thinking is if you believe the publications in the yellow press with reference to the words of a repatriate from Russian captivity, whom it is quite possible that the special services managed to turn over before his exchange.

Of course, I am also not completely free from the influence of propaganda. For example, I recently reported on four destroyed railway bridges across the Dnieper, and it looks like three of them turned out to be false, or even all four. I admit, this is the rare case when I am glad to be wrong.

ps Lol, this is a beautiful Arabic trolling


Germany is now in a very difficult life situation. The entire power of German industry relies on Russian gas and Russian raw materials as a foundation, and the “greens” have more political weight, which, to please the United States (for which the energy alliance of Germany and Russia poses a serious strategic threat, and the Germany-Russia-China triple alliance in general nightmare) have been pushing in Germany for a decade a completely ridiculous policy of economic self-destruction. All this against the backdrop of US military bases in Germany. I don’t know how Scholz is still able to withstand the incredible pressure on him, that’s for sure someone you won’t envy. Germany is not very free, apparently it is the main sponsor of this banquet, and against its will.

Danilchenko is on duty in Melitopol. And Fedorov now seems to be in Kyiv, recovering from Russian captivity and composing fairy tales about the heroic struggle of patriots against the invaders where he has long been gone. And the yellow press like AiF willingly broadcasts his stories. Keep believing that you are not being deceived by Ukrainian propaganda.

You have a distorted concept of civilian infrastructure. It is difficult to do without destruction at all when hundreds of thousands of armed people shoot at each other. But in general, the civilian infrastructure in Ukraine is now surprisingly in good condition.

The Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia together sent about 200 T-72 tanks of various modifications to Ukraine. I do not consider German Leopards-1 a serious weapon, but nevertheless. The number of armored personnel carriers and self-propelled howitzers supplied by the West to Ukraine is no longer in the hundreds, but closer to thousands. Also, the West sent anti-tank systems of various types to Ukraine at the rate of ten complexes per one Russian tank. This is only from the West, and there are still huge stocks of weapons inherited from the USSR. Recently, in Balakliya, the Russians took control of the "65th Arsenal" ammunition depot with about 150,000 tons of shells.

Ukraine still has a very impressive arsenal of weapons and ammunition, even considering the very serious losses after two months of demilitarization.

Lol, does Fedorov still think he's the mayor of Melitopol? The mayor of Melitopol - Galina Danilchenko, the city has long been living a normal life, only instead of the Ukrainian hryvnia, the Russian ruble is now in use.

For some reason, you forget or ignore the military assistance of Western countries, which goes to Ukraine in a continuous stream. About 10 transport planes of military aid arrive daily from the USA through Poland to Ukraine. Caravans of trucks with tanks and other heavy armored vehicles are moving from Europe to Ukraine. Every day, Russia destroys part of the incoming military aid with air- and sea-based missiles at logistics hubs, but I think this is only a small part. Russia's refusal to bomb bridges and railroads sounds strange from the point of view of military logic, but Putin's strategy becomes more understandable in the context of a military special operation. Attacks on civilian infrastructure are a sign of genocide, and the genocide of Ukraine is clearly not part of Putin's plan. Therefore, do not worry about tactical nuclear strikes on the territory of Ukraine - Russia will definitely not do this. Although the provocations of Ukraine under a false flag are still possible.

Do not worry about the professionalism of the FSB, they have extensive experience in countering terrorism. Let me remind you that the Winter Olympic Games in Sochi in 2014 were held against the backdrop of the blazing Maidan, and geographically it was very close. However, they passed quietly and without serious incidents.

I think it is in the interests of Russia that the hostilities against the Armed Forces of Ukraine end faster, Ukraine slips into the tactics of sabotage and terrorist attacks, and then a very complex and large-scale military special operation will turn into an ordinary counter-terrorist operation, in which Russia has already eaten more than one dog.

Do you think that Ukraine is not involved in the explosions in Bryansk? Then it is doubly incomprehensible to me why you are dragging offtopic into this topic, and even falsely accusing me of this when I talk about the role of Poland in this story (which, in my opinion, is very interesting and quite significant).

Poland has very specific views on Western Ukraine, Poland has a rather tough political line on the Russian energy embargo, Poland is represented by the largest contingent of mercenaries fighting on the side of Ukraine. The Polish Minister of War recently criticized Johnson aloud for revealing military secrets during a visit to India about the training of Ukrainian soldiers by instructors in Poland. Poland is actively playing its game against the energy alliance between Russia and Germany and is pursuing its interests in Ukraine. This is interesting both in itself and in the context of what possible steps are in this regard in Putin's strategy.

I understand it. When there is confirmation from the Ukrainian side, then it will be appropriate to talk about it here. For now, I can only say that even terrorists act more honestly than Ukraine, because usually some specific terrorist organization takes responsibility for the strike. There is no responsibility - it means that until the end of the investigation it is just an accident. "The Clap with a negative rise of silence", to put it more politically correct.

ps I live in one of the safest places in the world, far enough from the scene of events and at the same time my place for this performance is in the stalls in the first row.

It seems that it is you who are digressing from the topic, I have not seen reports that Ukraine claimed responsibility for the strikes in Bryansk, probably because there were no such messages.

Here is an interesting recent article from which you can better understand what place Poland occupies or wants to occupy in this conflict. It is about a possible union between Poland and Western Ukraine, on the territory of which Poland has claims for historical reasons. Moreover, since 2015, an organization for the return of Polish property in Ukraine "Restitution of Kresov" has been operating in Poland, and about 100 thousand Poles are able to prove that they are the heirs and successors of people who owned real estate in Western Ukraine. And in 2016, Ukraine signed, together with the Sejm of Poland, a joint declaration condemning the Molotov-Ribentrop Pact. By signing this declaration, Kyiv actually abandoned the six regions of Western Ukraine in favor of Poland, which Ukraine received under this pact.

Now it is more clear to me why Poland is so determined and seems ready to take a direct part even without coordination with NATO. This is a historic chance for Poland to become the "customs office of Europe" with physical control over two branches of the gas pipeline from Russia to Europe instead of the current one.

The bad news for Ukraine is that it looks like it could lose not only East and South, but also West as a result of this operation. Only the demilitarized Center will remain, on which all debts for weapons supplied by the West will be hanged.

And why not beads instead of paper, at least they are shiny?

I recommend this interview, although it is in French, it is very informative. Eight centuries of the domination of European civilization down the drain - because of the global loss of confidence in the debt obligations of the West. Bring gold if you don't want to pay in rubles. Green paper does not inspire anyone else in Russia.

It is difficult to say that Russia’s advance in the Donbas is very slow, because there Russia is opposed by the most combat-ready grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is very well entrenched there. There seem to be more Terodefense militias in the south, who are now having a very hard time against the regular army. On the other hand, armored vehicles with the letter O from the central military district are increasingly visible in the front-line chronicle, and the letters V  and Z now look like rotations or regroupings. Shelling in the Donbass is more like "harassing" fire to prevent the Armed Forces from regrouping than to prepare for a decisive offensive.

Theoretically, both sides of the conflict have the opportunity to use such ammunition. The Armed Forces of Ukraine used them during the siege of Slavyansk in 2015. Also, the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not hide the fact that they carried out artillery shelling of Bucha at a time when it was occupied by Russian troops.

I met on the net the opinion that the UK is thus blackmailing Zelensky so that he continues to escalate the conflict. In general, it is strange that the English newspaper discloses the details of the forensic medical examination before the end of the investigation, especially if it does not fit with the original version of the Ukrainian side.

Are you seriously?

I am especially amused by your ability to diagnose Putin by his hand on the edge of the table, while Biden regularly shakes hands with the void.

You invented your fact yourself, Russia is a responsible and reliable supplier of energy resources, and even two months after the start of the operation in Ukraine, Gazprom continues to transit gas through Ukraine in accordance with its long-term contracts. The fact that Gazprom does not supply gas under short-term contracts is its permanent strategy.

It is curious that the protest action is openly taking place in the city occupied by the Russians and no one seems to be shooting at them. And there are more people in the queues for Russian humanitarian aid than at these rallies. This video is more than a month and a half old, since then the mood in Melitopol seems to have changed to a more pro-Russian one.

The problem is not that you are being lied to. Your problem is that you are deceiving yourself.

I think the ambitions to take the South of Ukraine are not the main, but the accompanying goal of Russia in this operation. Moreover, it appeared already during the operation due to the unwillingness of Ukraine to voluntarily lay down its arms. The stronger and longer Ukraine resists, the worse the terms of the peace agreement will be for it. Russia does not need a truce for 10-15-20 years, in order to then again step on the same Ukrainian rake. Putin will not repeat Khrushchev's mistake in rehabilitating Bandera in the 1950s.