Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[coolcoinz]

Unlike the alleged helicopter attack in Belgorod a few weeks ago, this is much deeper in Russian territory (~15 miles vs ~70 miles).

It's not a Ukrainian attack, stop posting propaganda. This is a normal fire that happens from time to time in oil depots. Most likely this time it was human error. Oil is very flammable and tends to cause problems from time to time. Brave Russian firefighters are dealing with it.

I know you're being facetious, but I was hanging out in some Russian TG channels this morning and it's a bit of a mess there...

"When is Putin finally going to start a real war?"
"This can't be Ukraine, this is NATO attacking us"
"Why didn't they appreciate our good will gesture (retreat from Kyiv)"
"Let's nuke Kyiv"
"Let's nuke Poland"
"Mobilization" (ok, that one is just Girkin)

It's sad to watch how brainwashed they are. Ukrainians even call some of them and they are repeating the same mantra.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjhfQrtuJ-A
-Why are you in Ukraine?
-We want to disarm you because you use nazi symbols on your uniforms.
-How many Russians have died for this?
-3000 (lol)
-What if it includes your son? If we were nazis he wouldn't be sitting here with us.

They are killing women and children and destroying whole towns because they saw nazi symbols in Ukraine and they use these symbols in Russia.
What would Russians say if NATO bombed Moscow because of some nationalist marches being held there?

These pictures are all from March 22 or earlier.  Imagine how much has been done since.

We have already learned in this thread that these are pictures of:
-buildings hit by Ukrainian fire because Ukrainians want to kill Russians at all cost even sacrificing their own towns
-buildings hit by Ukrainian artillery that missed their targets
-places destroyed by crashing Russian jets and helicopters that Ukrainians shot down (not Russian fault)
-places destroyed by Russian missiles that were diverted or damaged by Ukrainian fire. Missiles were going towards military targets but were forced by Ukrainian forces into civilian bildings
-civilian buildings where Ukrainian nazis were hiding
-civilian buildings used to store weapons and ammo for Ukrainian forces deliberately targeted by Russians
-civilian buildings destroyed by Ukrainians on purpose to make it look like Russians are doing it to make the world impose more sanctions

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[LTU_btc]

We couldn't really say how much are dead on Ukraine's side. Only the Russians has the time to count their dead mean since they have this war in control. Ukrainian dead were even left on the roadside to rot. And the infrastructures that are destroyed are in Ukraine. If they want their country to be still like remains as is which they can pick up the pieces and resume back to where they are before the war, they could just go on with the peacetalks. Putin still offer the peacetalks afaik.

If Zelensky has care for the country he should be accepting the peace talk that Putin is offering. Its been two months, no one is going to go to Ukraine for war. Regret always happen after things are over but they can stop it while its yet not too late. They may even given opportunities after. Heck Russia has more gas and oil to offer to Ukraine if they make business instead. They may even help rebuild the country.

I think you confused something. Ukraine count their dead men, few weeks ago Zelensky mentioned estimate numbers of dead and injured, but they reasons not to give frequent updates about it. While Russia really leaves their dead troops to rot in fields and to be eaten by wild dogs, despite that they're saying ''Svoikh Ne Brosaem''. And there is thousands of unclaimed dead soldiers are stored in Ukrainian morgues:
https://www.businessinsider.com/7000-unclaimed-dead-russian-soldiers-left-in-morgues-ukraine-says-2022-4
And seems that you completely don't understand situation. Conditions for Putin's offered peace is complete capitulation of Ukraine

I am especially amused by your ability to diagnose Putin by his hand on the edge of the table, while Biden regularly shakes hands with the void.

I can't diagnose disease from photo, but do you think that Putin is looking OK in this photo? And where these long tables is gone? Wouldn't be surprised if it's another faked video. And it's also not often thing to see Shoigu wearing civilian clothes.
Biden is another story, but I don't like whataboutism.

But in general, the civilian infrastructure in Ukraine is now surprisingly in good condition.

Especially Mariupol.

You don't seem to understand this. Russia is not at war with Ukraine, this is a military special operation. If Russia had really declared war on Ukraine, it would have ended a month ago. There is no martial law in Russia, there is no mass mobilization, normal peaceful life is going on in all regions, with the exception of three regions bordering Ukraine, where a yellow level of terrorist threat has been declared. I do not know with whom Ukraine is fighting there, but Russia did not come to this war. And be glad it is.

I know that in Russia you're not allowed to use word war for this, but sorry, that's war. One country armoured invasion into another country is war. Yes, there is no martial law and mass mobilization in Russia, but these things happening in Ukraine is war. But Russia sometimes don't like call thing with real their names.

[be.open]

I think that the Ukrainian military strategically has been mostly intelligent and technically well prepared. When Putin stated over and over that he would not invade Ukraine, they did not prepare for the best case, but for the worst scenario and they were right.

Ukraine has been actively preparing for its attack on the Donbass all winter. There was a lot of talk about the possibility of a Russian invasion, but however, it turned out to be a complete surprise for Ukraine, NATO intelligence simply overslept it. The genius of Putin's strategy lies precisely in the fact that, according to the military canons current as of February 2022, it was technically impossible - too small forces participated in Russian military exercises near the border with Ukraine and NATO intelligence did not take this threat seriously. This gave Russia at the start of the operation the staggering advantage of a surprise strike from which Ukraine still seems to be in shock.

I love how you flip-flop between "Putin's army is invincible" and "Ukrainians are so many and so mean", sometimes in the same post.

As Francis Scott Fitzgerald said, "The mark of a first-class brain is the ability to keep two mutually exclusive thoughts in mind at the same time without losing the ability to think". There are rumors that I am the best analyst of the Russian locale, but this is not certain.

LOL... so Ukrainians couldn't move from Kyiv to Donbas in the ~3 weeks while Russians were retreating through Belarus. Nonsense.

Well, why didn't they do it? Why didn't they decide to de-blockade Mariupol or to strengthen the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the East in order to avoid closing the boiler? The Russians left the north, but the grouping of the Ukrainian army near Kyiv remained, what are they doing there? Eliminate the imaginary Russian threat, as if there were not enough real threats in the east and south?

And then they gave the control back to allow Ukraine to do the "provocations"?

It seems that success in the north could not be sustained with the approach of the spring thaw and the growth of leaves on the trees. The risk of being cut off from supplies and the complete loss of the northern group outweighed the risk of a possible provocation at Chernobyl. Today, IAEA specialists are to arrive there and assess the situation on the spot. I hope Ukraine has enough remnants of common sense not to turn its country into a radioactive garbage dump, will see.

I can't diagnose disease from photo, but do you think that Putin is looking OK in this photo?

I think Putin is quite healthy, perhaps at that moment he was more tense than usual.

And where these long tables is gone?

Putin’s famous long table, which has already become a meme, was used by him only for face-to-face dialogue with those politicians who refused to take a test for covid-19 to Putin’s doctors (apparently out of fear of giving Russia their DNA sample). This is a common precaution during a pandemic, if you have not forgotten about this word. Politicians who agree to and successfully pass this test are much closer to Putin, including direct physical contact through a handshake when appropriate.

And it's also not often thing to see Shoigu wearing civilian clothes.

You may be very surprised, but the Minister of Defense of Russia, General of the Army Shoigu, did not serve military service and does not have a military education. Perhaps his public appearance in civilian clothes means that the military operations of the Russian army in Ukraine are now rather led by General of the Army Alexander Dvornikov. Although Putin is still the supreme commander in chief, and Shoigu is still the minister of defense, of course. But Dvornikov seems to have a big operational carte blanche and he is the one who draws arrows on the map.

Especially Mariupol.

Mariupol is a show of force. The attackers' lack of numerical superiority, the use by Ukraine of dominant heights in urban development and civilians as a human shield - did not stop the Chechen assault battalions and the people's militia of Donbass. The city will be restored, with the exception of Azovstal.

If there is an order to clean up Nikolaev, Kharkov, Odessa, Lvov or Kyiv, they will do it again, now you know about it and all of Ukraine now knows and all of the World now knows. Russians fight not by numbers, but by skill, and for them there are no impossible combat missions.

I know that in Russia you're not allowed to use word war for this, but sorry, that's war. One country armoured invasion into another country is war. Yes, there is no martial law and mass mobilization in Russia, but these things happening in Ukraine is war. But Russia sometimes don't like call thing with real their names.

You are right, a real civil war has been going on in Ukraine for 8 years, the genocide of the Russian-speaking population of Donbass. Russia is not at war, she came to stop it. I call a spade a spade.

Your reenactment of 1984..

In the meantime, the EU is censoring the internet lol. I hope no one gets arrested for reading my post. Take care of yourself there in the stronghold of the victorious democracy.

ps A video bonus of the military chronicle from Andrey Filatov, now he is wounded in the hospital and uploads footage from the last days of the cleansing of Mariupol to the network. Here is the work of the rather exotic Russian wunderwaffe UR-77 of the engineering troops, which is usually used to clear a passage in minefields. One shot contains about 800kg of explosives, a harsh thing.

[DaRude]

Australian PM warns Chinese that new base would be 'red line' for Australia and the US...Western countries are scrambling over a security pact reached between China and Solomon Islands

https://www.foxnews.com/world/australian-pm-says-new-chinese-base-would-be-red-line-for-australia-us

Think we're hitting the peak of the irony here. So how many here are going to start yelling about Solomon Islands' right to join whatever pact they want? Or Chinese cookies are different than Nuland's cookies? Surely China can find a lot more countries around the globe where it can offer some irresistibly profitable trading terms in exchange for some military cooperation. That's the problem with precedents, once you set them then you reap what you sow.

The justification for US screwing Cuba was that Cuba's proximity to US was an existential threat, that got us through cold war. Why, why did they have to challenge that and rock the boat now?

Putin warns West: Moscow has 'red line' about Ukraine, NATO

November 30, 2021 https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/putin-warns-west-moscow-red-line-ukraine-nato-81466257

[cryptomaxsun]

You don't seem to understand this. Russia is not at war with Ukraine, this is a military special operation. If Russia had really declared war on Ukraine, it would have ended a month ago. There is no martial law in Russia, there is no mass mobilization, normal peaceful life is going on in all regions, with the exception of three regions bordering Ukraine, where a yellow level of terrorist threat has been declared. I do not know with whom Ukraine is fighting there, but Russia did not come to this war. And be glad it is.

And this person tells me about critical thinking and that he is less exposed to propaganda.
facepalm.

I think no matter how much evidence provide, you still won’t believe that a real war is going on, where people are dying and real blood.

As Francis Scott Fitzgerald said, "The mark of a first-class brain is the ability to keep two mutually exclusive thoughts in mind at the same time without losing the ability to think". There are rumors that I am the best analyst of the Russian locale, but this is not certain.

You are the worst analyst. You could not accurately predict anything and make money on it.
Tell us better here how you last year, at the peak of a high price, got into mining hardware, mined and did not sell cryptocurrency while it was on the pump. Now the cryptocurrency has dropped in price, you are just another hamster who has not earned anything and imagines himself to be an expert.

[paxmao]

I think that the Ukrainian military strategically has been mostly intelligent and technically well prepared. When Putin stated over and over that he would not invade Ukraine, they did not prepare for the best case, but for the worst scenario and they were right.

Ukraine has been actively preparing for its attack on the Donbass all winter. There was a lot of talk about the possibility of a Russian invasion, but however, it turned out to be a complete surprise for Ukraine, NATO intelligence simply overslept it. The genius of Putin's strategy lies precisely in the fact that, according to the military canons current as of February 2022, it was technically impossible...

I could even believe you... except for the fact that Biden was clearly stating that it was going to happen even a couple weeks ahead "genius" https://www.politico.eu/article/us-joe-biden-warns-of-russia-invasion-of-ukraine-within-days/

There are even posts on this forum making fun, even I did not think Putin would be as stupid... But NATO, they knew.

...
You are right, a real civil war has been going on in Ukraine for 8 years,
[...]
. Russia is not at war, she came to stop it. I call a spade a spade.
...

Again, following the argument of "Russia is not at war" (which is already unbelievable), you say "Ukraine is in a civil war", that means that you admit that all the Donbas is Ukrainian territory at contest between two Ukrainian factions (Ukraine surely thanks you for that). You also say that Russia came to stop it. Thus Russia has sent troops into Ukrainian territory and has military presence there.

Invading another country with military forces is an act of war. Russia is at war with Ukraine. Ukraine can use any (legal) means to destroy Russian war infrastructure, including logistics, depots, factories, command centres, military installations, etc.

And let's now follow the opposite argument: If "Russia is not at war", then Putin is committing acts of terror in Ukraine which makes him a terrorist and makes Russia a terrorist supporting state. Ukraine is then in the right to capture, put to trial and sentence any member of the Russian government or military involved in these terrorist acts. They are lucky, if it were the US they would be sent to Guantanamo without trial and for an indeterminate period of time.

But, none of that is true - Russia has started a war with Ukraine. And, as the saying goes, you only know how wars start, not how they end.

In practical terms, Russia will deny there is a war, and Ukraine will "not deny nor confirm" any activity in Russian territory. But words are just wind.

...
The Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia together sent about 200 T-72 tanks of various modifications to Ukraine. I do not consider German Leopards-1 a serious weapon, but nevertheless. The number of armored personnel carriers and self-propelled howitzers supplied by the West to Ukraine is no longer in the hundreds, but closer to thousands. Also, the West sent anti-tank systems of various types to Ukraine at the rate of ten complexes per one Russian tank. This is only from the West, and there are still huge stocks of weapons inherited from the USSR. Recently, in Balakliya, the Russians took control of the "65th Arsenal" ammunition depot with about 150,000 tons of shells.

Ukraine still has a very impressive arsenal of weapons and ammunition, even considering the very serious losses after two months of demilitarization.

The numbers you are providing are impossible. The self propelled howis are in the range of tens. Should UKR have 1000 Putin's army would already be on their way to Moscow. Interesting that you add numbers of APCs and howis which are completely different. The number of ATs as you mention is nearly impossible.

...
As Francis Scott Fitzgerald said, "The mark of a first-class brain is the ability to keep two mutually exclusive thoughts in mind at the same time without losing the ability to think". There are rumors that I am the best analyst of the Russian locale, but this is not certain.
...

That refers to the possibility of pondering different opinions when there is no data or the data is incomplete, it does not mean purposely changing facts.

Australian PM warns Chinese that new base would be 'red line' for Australia and the US...Western countries are scrambling over a security pact reached between China and Solomon Islands

https://www.foxnews.com/world/australian-pm-says-new-chinese-base-would-be-red-line-for-australia-us

Think we're hitting the peak of the irony here. So how many here are going to start yelling about Solomon Islands' right to join whatever pact they want? Or Chinese cookies are different than Nuland's cookies? Surely China can find a lot more countries around the globe where it can offer some irresistibly profitable trading terms in exchange for some military cooperation. That's the problem with precedents, once you set them then you reap what you sow.

The justification for US screwing Cuba was that Cuba's proximity to US was an existential threat, that got us through cold war. Why, why did they have to challenge that and rock the boat now?

...

As far as Cuba, Castro's regime is not a representation of the people of Cuba, thus does not represent the will of the people living there. I will get flames for this, but that government, IMHO, while de-facto is the Cuban government, cannot be assumed to speak of behalf of the Cuban people and any agreement entered by it is not legit.

Chinese cookies are China's Communist Party's cookies, clearly a regime that cannot in anyway be assumed to represent the majority of the Chinese, even less now that Xi has decided to perpetuate himself in power. Again, I will get flames for this, but their government lacks legitimacy to act on behalf of their people.

If the majority of people of the S.I. and majority of people in China wish to have an agreement and are informed of the consequences (economic, political,...) then they should. There are some doubts about the level of representativeness of the current Prime Minister, who is accused of being in China's pocket.

Now, back to Putin's Russia, currently at war with Ukraine.

Your reenactment of 1984..

In the meantime, the EU is censoring the internet lol. I hope no one gets arrested for reading my post. Take care of yourself there in the stronghold of the victorious democracy.

The govs in the West are banning anything that is considered disinformation. Anyone interested can still access Russian media. If you need proof, please, let me know any outlet that you would like me to read.

Unfortunately, all those bots and trolls like you sending false information have given the West govs the chance to restrict liberty. Another reason to hate this war.

....

Germany free?  

You would need to elaborate that "thought".

[be.open]

I could even believe you... except for the fact that Biden was clearly stating that it was going to happen even a couple weeks ahead "genius" https://www.politico.eu/article/us-joe-biden-warns-of-russia-invasion-of-ukraine-within-days/

There are even posts on this forum making fun, even I did not think Putin would be as stupid... But NATO, they knew.

Link.

The genius of Putin's strategy is that he put all his cards on the table and openly said: "Here is a red line, do not cross it." And even then, no one in the West believed him, everyone thought that he was bluffing, that Russia did not have enough strength to realize the threat. Big mistake.

Again, following the argument of "Russia is not at war" (which is already unbelievable), you say "Ukraine is in a civil war", that means that you admit that all the Donbas is Ukrainian territory at contest between two Ukrainian factions (Ukraine surely thanks you for that). You also say that Russia came to stop it. Thus Russia has sent troops into Ukrainian territory and has military presence there.

Almost. In Ukraine, there was a civil war in the Donbass for eight years, and then Dobnass asked Russia to recognize its independence and help deal with this protracted history. Thus, Russia has sent its troops to the territory of Ukraine and has its military presence there, without the approval of the UN Security Council.

Invading another country with military forces is an act of war. Russia is at war with Ukraine. Ukraine can use any (legal) means to destroy Russian war infrastructure, including logistics, depots, factories, command centres, military installations, etc.

Not necessary. It can be a peacekeeping mission, or a counter-terrorist operation, or a special military operation, there are more than one options. But what you are right about is that Ukraine can use any legal means to destroy any legitimate targets. The use of illegal means and/or illegal purposes is a war crime.

And let's now follow the opposite argument: If "Russia is not at war", then Putin is committing acts of terror in Ukraine which makes him a terrorist and makes Russia a terrorist supporting state. Ukraine is then in the right to capture, put to trial and sentence any member of the Russian government or military involved in these terrorist acts. They are lucky, if it were the US they would be sent to Guantanamo without trial and for an indeterminate period of time.

You have a logical error, and I pointed it out in the previous paragraph. It will be easier for you to understand it using the example of any peacekeeping mission with the approval of the UN Security Council - this is not a war, but peacekeepers sometimes shoot. It can also be viewed as a hybrid information-economic proxy war between the US and Russia for spheres of influence in Europe with a battlefield on the territory of Ukraine. But for my personal safety, I will call this a military special operation.

But, none of that is true - Russia has started a war with Ukraine. And, as the saying goes, you only know how wars start, not how they end.

In practical terms, Russia will deny there is a war, and Ukraine will "not deny nor confirm" any activity in Russian territory. But words are just wind.

Call it what you will, but remember that war crimes are war crimes and will have to be answered.

The govs in the West are banning anything that is considered disinformation. Anyone interested can still access Russian media. If you need proof, please, let me know any outlet that you would like me to read.

Unfortunately, all those bots and trolls like you sending false information have given the West govs the chance to restrict liberty. Another reason to hate this war.

Usually in each of my posts there is at least one link as a proof. But your statements are just unfounded blah blah blah with a bunch of logical errors, as if you have burnt porridge in your head instead of brains. Well, which one of us is a bot?

[paxmao]

Again, following the argument of "Russia is not at war" (which is already unbelievable), you say "Ukraine is in a civil war", that means that you admit that all the Donbas is Ukrainian territory at contest between two Ukrainian factions (Ukraine surely thanks you for that). You also say that Russia came to stop it. Thus Russia has sent troops into Ukrainian territory and has military presence there.

Almost. In Ukraine, there was a civil war in the Donbass for eight years, and then Dobnass asked Russia to recognize its independence and help deal with this protracted history. Thus, Russia has sent its troops to the territory of Ukraine and has its military presence there, without the approval of the UN Security Council.

Invading another country with military forces is an act of war. Russia is at war with Ukraine. Ukraine can use any (legal) means to destroy Russian war infrastructure, including logistics, depots, factories, command centres, military installations, etc.

Not necessary. It can be a peacekeeping mission, or a counter-terrorist operation, or a special military operation, there are more than one options. But what you are right about is that Ukraine can use any legal means to destroy any legitimate targets. The use of illegal means and/or illegal purposes is a war crime.

And let's now follow the opposite argument: If "Russia is not at war", then Putin is committing acts of terror in Ukraine which makes him a terrorist and makes Russia a terrorist supporting state. Ukraine is then in the right to capture, put to trial and sentence any member of the Russian government or military involved in these terrorist acts. They are lucky, if it were the US they would be sent to Guantanamo without trial and for an indeterminate period of time.

You have a logical error, and I pointed it out in the previous paragraph. It will be easier for you to understand it using the example of any peacekeeping mission with the approval of the UN Security Council - this is not a war, but peacekeepers sometimes shoot. It can also be viewed as a hybrid information-economic proxy war between the US and Russia for spheres of influence in Europe with a battlefield on the territory of Ukraine. But for my personal safety, I will call this a military special operation.

But, none of that is true - Russia has started a war with Ukraine. And, as the saying goes, you only know how wars start, not how they end.

In practical terms, Russia will deny there is a war, and Ukraine will "not deny nor confirm" any activity in Russian territory. But words are just wind.

Call it what you will, but remember that war crimes are war crimes and will have to be answered.

The govs in the West are banning anything that is considered disinformation. Anyone interested can still access Russian media. If you need proof, please, let me know any outlet that you would like me to read.

Unfortunately, all those bots and trolls like you sending false information have given the West govs the chance to restrict liberty. Another reason to hate this war.

Usually in each of my posts there is at least one link as a proof. But your statements are just unfounded blah blah blah with a bunch of logical errors, as if you have burnt porridge in your head instead of brains. Well, which one of us is a bot?

Act of war definition:

act of war
(4) the term “act of war” means any act occurring in the course of— (A) declared war; (B) armed conflict, whether or not war has been declared, between two or more nations; or (C) armed conflict between military forces of any origin;

Does not get any clearer.

The use of illegal means and/or illegal purposes is a war crime.

Curiously enough, that is not always the case. War crimes have also specific definitions, not everything illegal is a war crime and there are three groups of crime wars that are not at the same level of relevance.

You have a logical error, and I pointed it out in the previous paragraph. It will be easier for you to understand it using the example of any peacekeeping mission with the approval of the UN Security Council - this is not a war, but peacekeepers sometimes shoot. It can also be viewed as a hybrid information-economic proxy war between the US and Russia for spheres of influence in Europe with a battlefield on the territory of Ukraine. But for my personal safety, I will call this a military special operation.

There are no US nor NATO soldiers in Ukraine, there are Putin's Russia soldiers. A peacekeeping mission is a force that gets in the middle of two conflicting factions to prevent them from fighting. Russia is not getting in the middle of two factions, is taking a side.

If you wish to consider this a proxy for spheres of influence it would be closer to the truth. I am not particularly happy about US influence in Latin America, the Middle East nor anywhere else. I do take sides when a despotic regime takes the path of aggression on a germinal democracy - a very imperfect one.

I am not blind to the conflicts in Donbas, but there should be a pacific resolution and Russia should have acted as a mediator, not as a part in the conflict. US probably did not help either, both are still living in an imperialistic mindset in which local dissents are an opportunity to grab another piece of the world and they are both experts at feeding the local hawks and make a lot of money selling weapons in the process.

There are many countries that have different levels of governments and political organisations that could very well work in Ukraine, but that happens when people are given the opportunity to discuss and find common ground. That does not happen under despotic regimes that simply take one side, but usually in Democracies (e.g. North Ireland, Basque country, ...) in which people eventually understand that fighting is most of the times the worst solution.

For your purposes, you can call it whatever your government allows you to call it - we would not want you in prison, would we?

[paxmao]

I could even believe you... except for the fact that Biden was clearly stating that it was going to happen even a couple weeks ahead "genius" https://www.politico.eu/article/us-joe-biden-warns-of-russia-invasion-of-ukraine-within-days/

There are even posts on this forum making fun, even I did not think Putin would be as stupid... But NATO, they knew.

The govs in the West are banning anything that is considered disinformation. Anyone interested can still access Russian media. If you need proof, please, let me know any outlet that you would like me to read.

Unfortunately, all those bots and trolls like you sending false information have given the West govs the chance to restrict liberty. Another reason to hate this war.

Usually in each of my posts there is at least one link as a proof. But your statements are just unfounded blah blah blah with a bunch of logical errors, as if you have burnt porridge in your head instead of brains. Well, which one of us is a bot?

Are you aware that you just quoted one of my links above? Yes you provide links to official media sometimes ... hardly a proof, more of food for Youtube algos.

Oh, my brain is fine. I know you will have a hard time understanding me and, be sure, I am not here to amuse you. Truth is boring, logic is long, boring and does not provide simple (yet wrong) answers to complex issues.

[icopress]

The first echolocation images of the ex-flagship of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation appeared.

The wreckage of a Mi-26 helicopter lying near the cruiser is also visible.

But I was especially pleased with the Russian propaganda ingenuity ... if I were the one who would receive money for such work, I still would not have thought of dressing the girls in the uniform of sexy nurses with swastika elements, (the uniform is definitely taken from a sex shop or a drama theater because this kind of costume nurses wore 70 years ago).

[paxmao]

The first echolocation images of the ex-flagship of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation appeared.

The wreckage of a Mi-26 helicopter lying near the cruiser is also visible.

...

You can also see the rouble / USD value right by the helicopter, sunken deep.

On the helicopter thing, I am not saying this is not accurate information, but I wonder why was the helicopter not able to leave the ship?

The nurses... gee, looking clean and lovely. No wonder Putin's soldiers are so keen in getting wounded and their leader make all kinds of efforts to send them to the hospital. Or the morgue.

[suchmoon]

On the helicopter thing, I am not saying this is not accurate information, but I wonder why was the helicopter not able to leave the ship?

This is Russia we're talking about... single cruiser loitering around hostile cost and spontaneously catching fire... the helicopter sliding off the ship when it was listing would be quite in character.

However the sonar pictures might be fake so take it with the requisite amounts of salt.

[paxmao]

...

But I was especially pleased with the Russian propaganda ingenuity ... if I were the one who would receive money for such work, I still would not have thought of dressing the girls in the uniform of sexy nurses with swastika elements, (the uniform is definitely taken from a sex shop or a drama theater because this kind of costume nurses wore 70 years ago).

The original version would be

[TwitchySeal]

I think that the Ukrainian military strategically has been mostly intelligent and technically well prepared. When Putin stated over and over that he would not invade Ukraine, they did not prepare for the best case, but for the worst scenario and they were right.

Ukraine has been actively preparing for its attack on the Donbass all winter. There was a lot of talk about the possibility of a Russian invasion, but however, it turned out to be a complete surprise for Ukraine, NATO intelligence simply overslept it. The genius of Putin's strategy lies precisely in the fact that, according to the military canons current as of February 2022, it was technically impossible - too small forces participated in Russian military exercises near the border with Ukraine and NATO intelligence did not take this threat seriously. This gave Russia at the start of the operation the staggering advantage of a surprise strike from which Ukraine still seems to be in shock.

Wasn't the surprise that Russia failed and ended up retreating 5 weeks after the war began?  Everyone thought it would be a matter of weeks or even a few days for Kyiv to fall, but the world overestimated the capabilities of the Russian Army and underestimated Ukraine, including you:

BCУ xopoшo мoтивиpoвaнa и зaкaлeнa вocьмилeтнeй вoйнoй c Дoнбacoм, плюc пoдгoтoвлeнa инcтpyктopaми HATO, нo бeз пoддepжки c вoздyxa и apтиллepии пpoтив peгyляpнoй apмии PФ в пpямoм пpoтивocтoянии y нeй нeт дaжe тeopeтичecкиx шaнcoв. Пoэтoмy Киeв oкpyжили тoлькo c тpёx cтopoн, и ждyт кoгдa из гopoдa пo мaкcимyмy cъeбyтcя миpныe житeли, чтoбы минимизиpoвaть пoтepи cpeди гpaждaнcкиx. Bce, ктo нe cлoжит opyжиe, бyдyт yничтoжeны - и глyпo нe пoнимaть этo.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are well motivated and hardened by the eight-year war with Donbas, plus trained by NATO instructors, but without air support and artillery against the regular army of the Russian Federation in direct confrontation, it has no even theoretical chances. Therefore, Kyiv was surrounded only from three sides, and they are waiting for civilians to get out of the city to the maximum in order to minimize losses among civilians. All who do not lay down their arms will be destroyed - and it is foolish not to understand this.

Do you still think it's naive and foolish to doubt a Russian parade in Kyiv on May 9?  That's just two weeks away now...

In Kyiv on May 9 2022, a traditional parade will be held in honor of the victory of the USSR over Nazi Germany. It is naive and foolish to doubt it.

Care to make any more bold predictions? Zelinsky seems to be much more confident now that he has seen the Russian army in action.

[DaRude]

....

Australian PM warns Chinese that new base would be 'red line' for Australia and the US...Western countries are scrambling over a security pact reached between China and Solomon Islands

https://www.foxnews.com/world/australian-pm-says-new-chinese-base-would-be-red-line-for-australia-us

Think we're hitting the peak of the irony here. So how many here are going to start yelling about Solomon Islands' right to join whatever pact they want? Or Chinese cookies are different than Nuland's cookies? Surely China can find a lot more countries around the globe where it can offer some irresistibly profitable trading terms in exchange for some military cooperation. That's the problem with precedents, once you set them then you reap what you sow.

The justification for US screwing Cuba was that Cuba's proximity to US was an existential threat, that got us through cold war. Why, why did they have to challenge that and rock the boat now?

...

As far as Cuba, Castro's regime is not a representation of the people of Cuba, thus does not represent the will of the people living there. I will get flames for this, but that government, IMHO, while de-facto is the Cuban government, cannot be assumed to speak of behalf of the Cuban people and any agreement entered by it is not legit.

Chinese cookies are China's Communist Party's cookies, clearly a regime that cannot in anyway be assumed to represent the majority of the Chinese, even less now that Xi has decided to perpetuate himself in power. Again, I will get flames for this, but their government lacks legitimacy to act on behalf of their people.

If the majority of people of the S.I. and majority of people in China wish to have an agreement and are informed of the consequences (economic, political,...) then they should. There are some doubts about the level of representativeness of the current Prime Minister, who is accused of being in China's pocket.

Now, back to Putin's Russia, currently at war with Ukraine.

Ahh right, the "will of the people", totally objective position for international relations, who wouldn't buy up such logic. Now who do you think should decide which governments "speak on behalf of its people" enough to allow them to join pacts? Care to share your list? Did Bush represent the majority of Americans, majority supported, had an agreement and were informed of the consequences (economic, political,...) of getting into Afghanistan? So were Trump's and now Biden's actions?

I mean if we're going to make up justifications why some countries are not allowed to do things that others can, after the fact, why not just say that counties that are in a pact that begins with NA* or in alliance with such pact, can just do whatever they want, wile everyone else gets sanctioned?

S.I. GDP is just $1.71 billion if China double/triple/10x... countries GDP overnight do you not think that majority wouldn't be dancing on the streets welcoming it's military in their houses?? Such idiotic diplomacy is what got us to this place. Now China is just going to buy up "majority" in every poor country that it wishes. If this is the best argument for foreign policy they can come up with, then it's a total diplomatic failure. No one with IQ higher than a rock will accept such mental gymnastics.

[be.open]

Do you still think it's naive and foolish to doubt a Russian parade in Kyiv on May 9?  That's just two weeks away now...

In Kyiv on May 9 2022, a traditional parade will be held in honor of the victory of the USSR over Nazi Germany. It is naive and foolish to doubt it.

Care to make any more bold predictions? Zelinsky seems to be much more confident now that he has seen the Russian army in action.

I think this forecast has already lost its relevance. When I did it, Kadyrov's Chechen regiment was standing near Kyiv, waiting for Putin's signal to attack. Then he was transferred to Mariupol and they, along with the marines and militiamen of Donbass, took Mariupol. In urban battles, this is perhaps the most formidable weapon of Russia, hot bearded mountaineers who shout "Allah Akbar!" after each RPG shot or grenade throw, and they feel like fish in water under bullets. Now the Chechen special forces "Akhmat" have been transferred from Mariupol to the East of Ukraine and, together with the Lugansk militia, are cleaning up the city of Rubizhne in the LPR.

I will refrain from making new forecasts regarding the timing or even the likely directions of strikes, it is difficult for me to predict the logic of the combat general who command this operation. As before, I am sure that Ukraine has no chances in an armed confrontation with Russia, and that over time, the negotiating position of Ukraine is steadily deteriorating, time works for Russia.

You have a logical error, and I pointed it out in the previous paragraph. It will be easier for you to understand it using the example of any peacekeeping mission with the approval of the UN Security Council - this is not a war, but peacekeepers sometimes shoot. It can also be viewed as a hybrid information-economic proxy war between the US and Russia for spheres of influence in Europe with a battlefield on the territory of Ukraine. But for my personal safety, I will call this a military special operation.

There are no US nor NATO soldiers in Ukraine, there are Putin's Russia soldiers. A peacekeeping mission is a force that gets in the middle of two conflicting factions to prevent them from fighting. Russia is not getting in the middle of two factions, is taking a side.

If you wish to consider this a proxy for spheres of influence it would be closer to the truth. I am not particularly happy about US influence in Latin America, the Middle East nor anywhere else. I do take sides when a despotic regime takes the path of aggression on a germinal democracy - a very imperfect one.

I am not blind to the conflicts in Donbas, but there should be a pacific resolution and Russia should have acted as a mediator, not as a part in the conflict. US probably did not help either, both are still living in an imperialistic mindset in which local dissents are an opportunity to grab another piece of the world and they are both experts at feeding the local hawks and make a lot of money selling weapons in the process.

There are many countries that have different levels of governments and political organisations that could very well work in Ukraine, but that happens when people are given the opportunity to discuss and find common ground. That does not happen under despotic regimes that simply take one side, but usually in Democracies (e.g. North Ireland, Basque country, ...) in which people eventually understand that fighting is most of the times the worst solution.

For your purposes, you can call it whatever your government allows you to call it - we would not want you in prison, would we?

I don't understand what you are trying to prove to me? That only the United States or NATO countries have the exclusive right to conduct peacekeeping or special military operations, including without the sanction of the UN Security Council, invading the territory of sovereign states? (There are many examples, the most recent being Turkey's recent invasion of Northern Iraq, which is ongoing right now). Or that Russia has not made enough diplomatic efforts to peacefully resolve the conflict within the framework of the Minsk agreements?

[paxmao]

....

Australian PM warns Chinese that new base would be 'red line' for Australia and the US...Western countries are scrambling over a security pact reached between China and Solomon Islands

https://www.foxnews.com/world/australian-pm-says-new-chinese-base-would-be-red-line-for-australia-us

Think we're hitting the peak of the irony here. So how many here are going to start yelling about Solomon Islands' right to join whatever pact they want? Or Chinese cookies are different than Nuland's cookies? Surely China can find a lot more countries around the globe where it can offer some irresistibly profitable trading terms in exchange for some military cooperation. That's the problem with precedents, once you set them then you reap what you sow.

The justification for US screwing Cuba was that Cuba's proximity to US was an existential threat, that got us through cold war. Why, why did they have to challenge that and rock the boat now?

...

As far as Cuba, Castro's regime is not a representation of the people of Cuba, thus does not represent the will of the people living there. I will get flames for this, but that government, IMHO, while de-facto is the Cuban government, cannot be assumed to speak of behalf of the Cuban people and any agreement entered by it is not legit.

Chinese cookies are China's Communist Party's cookies, clearly a regime that cannot in anyway be assumed to represent the majority of the Chinese, even less now that Xi has decided to perpetuate himself in power. Again, I will get flames for this, but their government lacks legitimacy to act on behalf of their people.

If the majority of people of the S.I. and majority of people in China wish to have an agreement and are informed of the consequences (economic, political,...) then they should. There are some doubts about the level of representativeness of the current Prime Minister, who is accused of being in China's pocket.

Now, back to Putin's Russia, currently at war with Ukraine.

Ahh right, the "will of the people", totally objective position for international relations, who wouldn't buy up such logic. Now who do you think should decide which governments "speak on behalf of its people" enough to allow them to join pacts? Care to share your list? Did Bush represent the majority of Americans, majority supported, had an agreement and were informed of the consequences (economic, political,...) of getting into Afghanistan? So were Trump's and now Biden's actions?

I mean if we're going to make up justifications why some countries are not allowed to do things that others can, after the fact, why not just say that counties that are in a pact that begins with NA* or in alliance with such pact, can just do whatever they want, wile everyone else gets sanctioned?

S.I. GDP is just $1.71 billion if China double/triple/10x... countries GDP overnight do you not think that majority wouldn't be dancing on the streets welcoming it's military in their houses?? Such idiotic diplomacy is what got us to this place. Now China is just going to buy up "majority" in every poor country that it wishes. If this is the best argument for foreign policy they can come up with, then it's a total diplomatic failure. No one with IQ higher than a rock will accept such mental gymnastics.

RE GDP, you are right to assume that people would be very happy about a better lifestyle - that is, if that money really ever reaches the average Joe. However, you should as well tell them that they are becoming a military target, should a war ever occur and they will be from then on depending on keeping in the good side of the CCP and thus loose their independence and, to a great degree, their freedom. You, see ... there are no free lunches, particularly, there are no free "swallow nests" when dealing with the CCP (and I am the one being classed as Naïve... oh my).#

By the way, if you have an army of, let's say 1000 soldiers and you have a base in your territory of, let's say 5000 Chinese soldiers, backed up by a massively superior force ... who's country is it?

See, you can argue about how representative democracies are, however, you cannot argue how representative is the system in Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Iran... because there is no argument.

Your position is that "since representative governments are not perfect then everything is equally bad". Cuba and US have the same level of legitimacy for you. Also, you take the practical approach to world diplomacy, but an ethical approach to judging representation in democracies.

We do not agree, that's all. Certainly, I am not trying to make anything up, I am simply expressing my view. I do not need to "list" ... you need free press, respect for the law and the individual rights and a representative system to elect a government plus independent judiciary... the more the better),

Also, I am not trying to convince you of anything either, nor do I need to justify anyone else's doing and I am certainly not going to try to justify any of the Bushes - Junior is certainly psychopath IMHO.

I think that my way of seeing things is what corresponds to a civilized position in the XXI century. Tzars, despots, kings, feudal lords... that is medieval and humanity should strive to get rid of those systems and those who support and promote them.

I am not a fan of the US nor I defend their way of electing representatives, the massive private donations, the gerrymandering and many other of the idiosyncrasies of the voting system. I could say the same for France, UK (extreme gerrymandering), Spain (you vote for a list, not a person) and even Switzerland which tends to delegate too much into referendums, even for decisions that are too complex, ... you can name any representative system and it has its faults.

[paxmao]

...

You have a logical error, and I pointed it out in the previous paragraph. It will be easier for you to understand it using the example of any peacekeeping mission with the approval of the UN Security Council - this is not a war, but peacekeepers sometimes shoot. It can also be viewed as a hybrid information-economic proxy war between the US and Russia for spheres of influence in Europe with a battlefield on the territory of Ukraine. But for my personal safety, I will call this a military special operation.

There are no US nor NATO soldiers in Ukraine, there are Putin's Russia soldiers. A peacekeeping mission is a force that gets in the middle of two conflicting factions to prevent them from fighting. Russia is not getting in the middle of two factions, is taking a side.

If you wish to consider this a proxy for spheres of influence it would be closer to the truth. I am not particularly happy about US influence in Latin America, the Middle East nor anywhere else. I do take sides when a despotic regime takes the path of aggression on a germinal democracy - a very imperfect one.

I am not blind to the conflicts in Donbas, but there should be a pacific resolution and Russia should have acted as a mediator, not as a part in the conflict. US probably did not help either, both are still living in an imperialistic mindset in which local dissents are an opportunity to grab another piece of the world and they are both experts at feeding the local hawks and make a lot of money selling weapons in the process.

There are many countries that have different levels of governments and political organisations that could very well work in Ukraine, but that happens when people are given the opportunity to discuss and find common ground. That does not happen under despotic regimes that simply take one side, but usually in Democracies (e.g. North Ireland, Basque country, ...) in which people eventually understand that fighting is most of the times the worst solution.

For your purposes, you can call it whatever your government allows you to call it - we would not want you in prison, would we?

I don't understand what you are trying to prove to me? That only the United States or NATO countries have the exclusive right to conduct peacekeeping or special military operations, including without the sanction of the UN Security Council, invading the territory of sovereign states? (There are many examples, the most recent being Turkey's recent invasion of Northern Iraq, which is ongoing right now). Or that Russia has not made enough diplomatic efforts to peacefully resolve the conflict within the framework of the Minsk agreements?

I am not trying to prove anything. You are comparing Putin's war to a peacekeeping mission - which is not, because they have clearly declared that they are fighting on behalf of one side, or a proxy war between Russia and the US, which is not because there are no US soldiers (nor NATO troops) in the conflict but there are Putin's Russia soldiers - so it is not a proxy, it is simply a war between Russia and Ukraine.

Russia has put forward their conditions about how Ukraine would need to act to avoid being invaded. That, in my hood's called a threat, not a negotiation. Ukraine has decided not to be bullied. On top of that, the Donbas conflict could not exist without the support from Putin's Russia. War is expensive - who is funding the separatists? We all know who.

Seems to me that Putin wants peace, but only if he sets the rules, else ... psycho mode.
#

...

I will refrain from making new forecasts regarding the timing or even the likely directions of strikes, it is difficult for me to predict the logic of the combat general who command this operation.

...

Oh, I can help you with that. The guy's strategy is: using massively artillery in cities. Night and day, flatten them. He led the war in Syria... this is Aleppo after his "strategy". This is why the West should be helping Ukraine achieve a decisive victory, this guy is not a soldier, is a psycho.

Dubbed the ‘butcher’ of Aleppo and Grozny, Aleksandr Dvornikov, was honoured with a Hero of Russia medal in 2016

[LTU_btc]

Ukraine has been actively preparing for its attack on the Donbass all winter. There was a lot of talk about the possibility of a Russian invasion, but however, it turned out to be a complete surprise for Ukraine, NATO intelligence simply overslept it. The genius of Putin's strategy lies precisely in the fact that, according to the military canons current as of February 2022, it was technically impossible - too small forces participated in Russian military exercises near the border with Ukraine and NATO intelligence did not take this threat seriously. This gave Russia at the start of the operation the staggering advantage of a surprise strike from which Ukraine still seems to be in shock.

I'm not sure where did you got that Russian invasion become surprise for Ukraine, NATO and West. IIRC, few days before inavsion, USA intelligence warned that inavsion can begin at any moment, on 23th February state of emergency started in Ukraine. Though, Ukraine admitted that they didn't expected invasion in North, from Belarus side.
And I'm not sure why you're saying about too small forces, when there was close ti 200k troops near to Ukrainian border.

Putin’s famous long table, which has already become a meme, was used by him only for face-to-face dialogue with those politicians who refused to take a test for covid-19 to Putin’s doctors (apparently out of fear of giving Russia their DNA sample). This is a common precaution during a pandemic, if you have not forgotten about this word. Politicians who agree to and successfully pass this test are much closer to Putin, including direct physical contact through a handshake when appropriate.

And lonng table is in action again . This time in meeting with António Guterres.
Though, Putin used long table in meetings with local officers too - Lavrov, Shoigu, Danilov and etc.

You may be very surprised, but the Minister of Defense of Russia, General of the Army Shoigu, did not serve military service and does not have a military education. Perhaps his public appearance in civilian clothes means that the military operations of the Russian army in Ukraine are now rather led by General of the Army Alexander Dvornikov. Although Putin is still the supreme commander in chief, and Shoigu is still the minister of defense, of course. But Dvornikov seems to have a big operational carte blanche and he is the one who draws arrows on the map.

It's not surprise for me, I know this fact for a long time. And I'm still getting cognitive dissonance about it. How you can become army general without serving in army? And yeah, I read that now Butcher of Syria is one of the main persons in this war now.

Mariupol is a show of force. The attackers' lack of numerical superiority, the use by Ukraine of dominant heights in urban development and civilians as a human shield - did not stop the Chechen assault battalions and the people's militia of Donbass. The city will be restored, with the exception of Azovstal.

If there is an order to clean up Nikolaev, Kharkov, Odessa, Lvov or Kyiv, they will do it again, now you know about it and all of Ukraine now knows and all of the World now knows. Russians fight not by numbers, but by skill, and for them there are no impossible combat missions.

So, Mariupol's infrastructure isn't good after all? But I used it just as most obvious example, there is lot of smaller cities with huge damage like Severodonetsk or Borodyanka.

You are right, a real civil war has been going on in Ukraine for 8 years, the genocide of the Russian-speaking population of Donbass. Russia is not at war, she came to stop it. I call a spade a spade.

And this ''civilian war'' was started by Russia 8 years ago. And what is genocide of Russian speaking Donbass population is still big mistery for me.

[TwitchySeal]

Do you still think it's naive and foolish to doubt a Russian parade in Kyiv on May 9?  That's just two weeks away now...

I think this forecast has already lost its relevance.

If it weren't for that law they just passed about what you can say about the war special operation, I'd give you a hard time about letting your emotions keep you from admitting that Russia got their ass whooped in the battle for Kyiev.