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1881  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: August 14, 2014, 01:59:15 PM
What do you mean? That 400$ won't hold in the near future?
IMO bids will pile up above the 420$ which held in May and provide support and then a small rally to 540$,
which once broken became major resistance. Breaking 420$ soon would be very bearish.
Breaking 420$ for good in a month or so would be normal for capitulation.
1882  Other / Off-topic / Re: Favorite porn star? on: August 14, 2014, 01:43:05 PM
Ashlyn Rae

1883  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 14, 2014, 01:26:54 PM
aaaaand as soon as USA wakes up, china begins dumping round 2. They might start to panic sell, and looking at this whole situation they should.

Not yet, they must break 3100 and then panic sell, but volume is too low right now, maybe later.
1884  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 14, 2014, 08:53:15 AM
What happens when the Americans (and adam) wake up?

I was thinking the same, Adam will have a shitty morning after seeing this. I wonder if / when he'll turn bear...
1885  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 13, 2014, 09:19:54 PM
...We're deep in bear territory now and we're not even at the "blood in the streets" phase yet.

Can you imagine how these forums will look when we'll reach the "blood in the streets" phase?
It's a couple of months away, and then almost everyone posting will be ashamed to admit holding bitcoins. Cheesy
1886  Economy / Speculation / Re: PANIC PANIC! (just get it over with, will you?) on: August 13, 2014, 09:14:46 PM
lol there is no panic selling, just less buyers, you do now that the number of bitcoin created a day is fixed right, so is all in the buyers

It is most certainly not.  

why, isn't 25 btc every 10 minutes, so 6 x 24 x 25= 3600 a day? i'm missing something?

It's not fixed, because of variable time per block, currently is about 3850 a day AFAIK (was even higher).
1887  Economy / Speculation / Re: Memespeculation on: August 13, 2014, 04:26:53 PM
1888  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 13, 2014, 02:52:53 PM
Where did fallling and shroomie go? Taking their 4 o'clock nap?

Trollin' taking its tollin'...

Eh. I try, I try.

Doesn't look like we formed a bottom, though. For today, perhaps, but don't think we've seen the end of it.

FTFY (just the size). Come on, oda.krell, unleash your inner bear! Cheesy
1889  Economy / Speculation / Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well on: August 13, 2014, 02:40:37 PM
They backpedaled on their 1.5:1  max leverage initiative which was meant to reduce swap growth..
Now its back to 3.33:1 leverage, giving more ammo to buyers to absorb more btc and hopefully prevent a flash crash. This is the latest move to prevent disaster..

If this works as intended - to absorb more BTC - then I'll be impressed. But if it won't be enough, oh boy, it will be fun to watch...
Quoting from wikipedia:
In the 1920s, margin requirements were loose. In other words, brokers required investors to put in very little of their own money. Whereas today, the Federal Reserve's margin requirement (under Regulation T) limits debt to 50 percent. During the 1920s leverage rates of up to 90 percent debt were not uncommon.[1] When the stock market started to contract, many individuals received margin calls. They had to deliver more money to their brokers or their shares would be sold. Since many individuals did not have the equity to cover their margin positions, their shares were sold, causing further market declines and further margin calls. This was one of the major contributing factors which led to the Stock Market Crash of 1929, which in turn contributed to the Great Depression
1890  Economy / Speculation / Re: PANIC PANIC! (just get it over with, will you?) on: August 13, 2014, 01:28:49 PM
I suggest to rename this thread 'Bull bunker', you will need it for the next couple of months. Wink
1891  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 13, 2014, 01:26:56 PM
China is leading this drop, the Chinese bagholders have lost faith and are dumping big even without new FUD.
Must have realized that their digital tulip bulbs won't flourish as desired. Cheesy
1892  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 13, 2014, 01:10:43 PM
568 this is pretty disastrous... wtf is happening...

Disastrous? Not really, from a TA perspective this still allows for a bullish scenario.
But if during the next 1 - 2 days long term support at 540$ will be broken (and I believe it will), then capitulation is a must.
It will be fun to watch the panic manifested in these forums and this thread.  Grin

Support broken, bullish scenario invalidated, it's time for a healthy capitulation! Grin
But it will take a couple of months to reach the bottom, so prepare for lots of whining and moaning in this forum. Cheesy

PS. I got to post on page 8000, cool!
What's your target? <340?

At the very bottom yes, below 340$, but for now support at 420$ - 450$ should hold, followed by a rather strong rebound, that won't
last long, because large holders will understand where the market is going and sell on it.
1893  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 13, 2014, 01:07:24 PM
568 this is pretty disastrous... wtf is happening...

Disastrous? Not really, from a TA perspective this still allows for a bullish scenario.
But if during the next 1 - 2 days long term support at 540$ will be broken (and I believe it will), then capitulation is a must.
It will be fun to watch the panic manifested in these forums and this thread.  Grin

Support broken, bullish scenario invalidated, it's time for a healthy capitulation! Grin
But it will take a couple of months to reach the bottom, so prepare for lots of whining and moaning in this forum. Cheesy

PS. I got to post on page 8000, cool!

So 541 and 539 is the difference between a huge bear market and a huge bull market??


Some time ago I and others warned of a turning point at which the market will choose a bullish or bearish scenario.
It's not just that 540$ support broke, look at the bid sum / ask sum ratio, it dropped down to 230$ on Bitstamp.
There is no bullish recovery from this, just a couple of (possibly strong) rebounds, but for the next couple of months the trend is down.
1894  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 13, 2014, 12:51:12 PM
568 this is pretty disastrous... wtf is happening...

Disastrous? Not really, from a TA perspective this still allows for a bullish scenario.
But if during the next 1 - 2 days long term support at 540$ will be broken (and I believe it will), then capitulation is a must.
It will be fun to watch the panic manifested in these forums and this thread.  Grin

Support broken, bullish scenario invalidated, it's time for a healthy capitulation! Grin
But it will take a couple of months to reach the bottom, so prepare for lots of whining and moaning in this forum. Cheesy

PS. I got to post on page 8000, cool!
1895  Economy / Speculation / Re: Something, something, something, technical analysis on: August 13, 2014, 12:44:23 PM
oda.krell, you missed the chance to post the bearish scenario I was asking for. Cheesy
Now the bullish scenario has been invalidated and the bearish one (capitulation) is going strong.

IIRC you advised someone to buy a couple of months ago because it looked 'safe' (bear market seemed over).
If so, then IMO you should advise them to sell now or on the rebound that will follow, they can buy back below 300$.
1896  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 13, 2014, 12:37:10 PM
Good news, bitstamp chart is working at bitcoincharts again!
I was getting worried that I'll miss important indicators for the unfolding of this nice capitulation. Grin
1897  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Ebola the trigger for martial law? on: August 12, 2014, 08:57:08 PM
Saliva appears to inactivate the virus, it's PCR positive but culture negative, possibly due to enzymes.
Breast milk is the most dangerous, also semen and tears. Perspiration itself is negative, but it could be contaminated with blood.
1898  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 12, 2014, 01:53:51 PM

I am expecting to see a large spike in BDD if support will be broken, price drops to the 420$ - 450$ next support level,
and large holders will send coins to exchanges to sell on the rather strong rebound that will follow. That should result in some weird volatility.
1899  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why did BTC drop to $570 level? on: August 12, 2014, 01:49:44 PM
...
I think this is manipulation. Someone is just trying to crash the market by withdrawing their FIAT to the sidelines. Now everyone is panicking and they can buy in at a lower price. Proactively shorting the market, if you ask me Smiley

You may call it manipulation, but it's a normal market behaviour. They will be buying at a lower price, of course, but this may happen when
the ask side will be about twice what it's now and the price about half. In a bear market (or a medium term downtrend), who dumps first, dumps best! Cheesy
1900  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 12, 2014, 01:28:13 PM
568 this is pretty disastrous... wtf is happening...

Disastrous? Not really, from a TA perspective this still allows for a bullish scenario.
But if during the next 1 - 2 days long term support at 540$ will be broken (and I believe it will), then capitulation is a must.
It will be fun to watch the panic manifested in these forums and this thread.  Grin
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