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Really good work by the OP.
Would be nice to see the same methodology used on MtGox daily price data as well.
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Perhaps the market truly doesn't want to go over 100 just yet. The downward channel upper line is at 100ish, and 100 is a psychological number.
Psychological numbers are strongest early on. 100 has been tested, re-tested, run-through, so many times that its barrier-effect has faded a lot. |
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Maybe just a little worried that not everything is in the image of 2011:
Honestly, 2011 is a vague guide, not a rule-book. There was a fundamental difference right at the start. In 2011 when the bubble began the base was just under $1, so increased over 30x to peak. But the fall was only to $10, still 10x base. So it had a long way to fall, and it did for 5 months. In contrast, 2013 dropped straightaway to barely 3.5x the base of $13-$14. So a low was quickly tested. 2011 was the first bubble so a lot of people did not know what to expect. In 2013, everyone was looking at this prior event and obviously many people cashed out fast. If 2013 crashed only to $135 and bounced around that for a few months then the argument that the bottom had not been tested would be very sound. But this is not what happened. |
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YES. I can't understand why this is a mystery to most bitcoiners |
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Manipulation mostly occurs in the orderbook, the walls. It has only a small effect in the overall market trend. The market came down from 136 to 65. The market is only midway between the two recent extremes. It is entirely reasonable for it to return to $120 for a while even if the long-term downtrend is still intact. If that downtrend has already exhausted, and the $266 bubble deflation has faded away, then it may kick around in hundred plus range for months.
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this thread = more evidence we are headed toward $50
All the people who spurned the chance to buy at $65 waiting for it to drop into the 50s (for the 3rd time since the peak), will be kicking themselves senseless when it ramps back into the hundreds, permanently. |
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One thing is clear to me, we are still on a downtrend unless we touch at least $108 and $120 later (i always look at daily charts for that matter)
The price action in the last few hours indicates that $108 is in the gun-sights. There is no real enthusiasm for a full retreat after the foray to $104. |
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why does 2013 have to follow 2011? making a proportional overlay is one thing, assuming that it's the same bubble dynamic is another fundamental leap in logic
Agreed. Two bubbles can deflate differently, and by the following metric 2013 has already deflated proportionally more than 2011 did: 2011 Peak Low, 10 weeks before, $0.56 Lowest post-peak $1.994 Increase = 3.56x 2013 Peak Low, 10 weeks before, $15.39 Lowest post-peak $50.01 Increase = 3.25x |
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5 min chart shows the pressure building again. $100 is toast soon...
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Bitcoin is a GOD. It can't be stopped by mere mortals selling their souls for filthy fiat!
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My money is on downtrend.
Taking profit for now, as even if $95-100 is broken in this epic bull trap, I would expect a pullback.
Don't you 3 digits on me, Bitcoin! Stand firm. Have courage  |
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In 2011, we rallied off 5.74 to over 12 in a massive bull trap before we descended to 2. So why not.  This time it's different  It's always different!  Yes, but it depends. How about this: 2011 Peak Low, 10 weeks before, $0.56 Lowest post-peak $1.994 Increase = 3.56x 2013 Peak Low, 10 weeks before, $15.39 Lowest post-peak $50.01 Increase = 3.25xPretty much a similar story |
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It looks a lot more like a clearly established upwards trend and that $65 was the bottom when you zoom out on the charts. Sometimes it's too easy to focus in on the close detail and miss the bigger picture. ClarkMoody's H4 scale shows this clearly.
Indeed. I find H4 the best scale to use to get a feel for the detailed and big picture at the same time, and normally keep CM set on that. |
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hm, are we heading to 100  Yes. I think so, at least to 95-98. Interesting that the expected pullback to 80-82 is not materializing, which means the market is feeling pretty bullish. |
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Anyone who deposits into Gox, after the USD "hiatus", deserves what they get.
Yes, agreed. I think I will open a bitstamp account to have a 2nd option. Coins are cheaper and their fee structure is pretty good too: https://www.bitstamp.net/fee_schedule/ |
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