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1901  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why is the bitcoin price being held from dropping below $14? on: July 14, 2011, 07:12:11 AM
Nice dream but free markets dont work that way.

In the same way US exporters could dream that the USD/EUR, USD/JPY, etc. exchange rates would be stable to plan properly.

Instead, hedging is needed for merchants and traders.

The same is true for bitcoin.
1902  Economy / Speculation / Re: I bought serveral bitcoin around 14, and had more USD hold on: July 13, 2011, 09:18:06 PM
there are some valid points here.

However , our analysis shows that we have already seen some capitulation at the 11$ bottom last week.

Now BTC are already in stronger hands as you can see in the sideways, bullish consolidation flag.
1903  Economy / Speculation / Re: Comparison to Apple (AAPL) shares on: July 13, 2011, 09:11:09 PM
yes at least 60% drop.

My expectation is even  a 90% drop, but I am happy to bet on a 60% drop to start with.

To those who dont believe in deflation that is already underway since late 1999 should look at the DJI measured in gold.
1904  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: July 13, 2011, 08:03:46 PM
Putting wishes and emotions aside, the patterns look bullish in the short term for a break out higher (either from current levels or a bit lower)
1905  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: What to do when withdrawing to a non-existent BTC address? on: July 12, 2011, 10:28:30 PM
I did do backups in some point, but after transferring all coins to the new computer I gave the old computer away...

anyway, its gone now and I see the 9 BTC as a way to support the bitcoin community. we have now 21 million coins - 9 BTC :-) - many more people losing some of their coins
1906  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / What to do when withdrawing to a non-existent BTC address? on: July 12, 2011, 06:15:16 PM
Hi experts,

I have a withdrawal issue.

I just withdrew 9 BTC to an address from an old computer that I do not
have anymore (I uninstalled the BTC client beforehand)

How can I get the 9 BTC back?

thanks
1907  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Man U v. Barca Champions League Final - BTCSportsBet.com !! on: July 12, 2011, 06:14:26 PM
I have a withdrawal issue.

I just withdrew 9 BTC to an address from an old computer that I do not
have anymore (I uninstalled the BTC client beforehand)

How can I get the 9 BTC back?

thanks
1908  Economy / Speculation / Re: Comparison to Apple (AAPL) shares on: July 12, 2011, 05:45:20 AM
In the next 2-5 years BTC will likely be higher than AAPL in $terms.

Even if BTCUSD remains at 14$...!

Because the upcoming major stock market crash will bring back AAPL to the teens (and I love the Apple brand, have nothing against them, but consumers will not have the $'s left in their purse or credit to affort those high margin Apple products).

Certainly your guess as to how AAPL will respond to lower consumer purchasing power is as good as any. But both Greenspan and Bernanke hold the stock market darling with no regard for base M0 monetary inflationary policy. The lesson Keynesians learned from '29-39 was that contraction of the money supply was both cause and effect of the stock market collapse. The Fed is now buying assets with printed money to prevent both. No, the stock market won't deflate, the Fed will just claim commodity supplies are decreasing, naturally increasing prices on tangible necessities.

I am happy to bet with you that the DJI will fall below 4000 by 2015, to underline that I am serious with my forecast.
1909  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Would you use credit cards to fund your trading accounts? on: July 11, 2011, 10:35:47 PM
By the way, this was possible last year on MtGox and Bitcoingateway.com but was stopped afterwards. On mTGox, due to credit card fraud because of the reversible nature of credit cards
1910  Economy / Speculation / Re: Comparison to Apple (AAPL) shares on: July 11, 2011, 10:33:44 PM
In the next 2-5 years BTC will likely be higher than AAPL in $terms.

Even if BTCUSD remains at 14$...!

Because the upcoming major stock market crash will bring back AAPL to the teens (and I love the Apple brand, have nothing against them, but consumers will not have the $'s left in their purse or credit to affort those high margin Apple products).
1911  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: July 11, 2011, 10:28:46 PM
Chartly's new $BCOIN symbol has its first chart post.


http://chart.ly/9dumj9u

1912  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: July 10, 2011, 08:02:56 PM

Two questions for you.

1) Is your subscription service free?
No, the in-depth analysis means extensive work and the monthly fee is 5 BTC.
Here are some more details: http://bit.ly/mjP1Rh
The weekly analysis will typically arrive Thursday evening London
time. On top, you will receive interim updates and alerts, depending on
market conditions. Everything will be sent to your email address.

If you want to secure more than one month at 5 BTC / month onwards, you
can secure as many months as you wish to stay in the member pool, and
then sent the appropriate bitcoins (my subscribers are very satisfied and many have already paid
for a couple of months in advance).
For July, I charge only 4 BTC for you.


For the payment, here is a new address that is specific to you so I can
properly see if payment arrived.
1CtjrYqDtcAHknpsX6ZqBJszyQzxvEU5BW

Once I received the funds, you will be in the subscriber pool.
 


2) You seem knowledgeable about this sort of stuff. What would you recommend reading as an introduction to the sort of analysis you do? I don't have a strong background in either economics or trading, but I'd like to learn.


For a very quick intro, you can look at: http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/#axzz1Rjavruib
A good book is: Murphy's "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets"
Further, I also sometimes look at elliottwaves: www.elliottwave.com

Hope this helps

1913  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: July 10, 2011, 07:50:42 PM
I have reset the poll again.

Vote now. Thanks for your opinion.

Up
Same?
Down


1914  Economy / Speculation / Re: Comparison to Apple (AAPL) shares on: July 10, 2011, 11:19:07 AM
330 billion $
1915  Local / Deutsch (German) / Re: Campbx, noch eine neue Bitcoinbörse on: July 10, 2011, 11:14:08 AM
Nichts fuer ungut...

Wir koennen ja "agree to disagree" vereinbaren. Meiner meinung nach waere bitcoin niemals so weit gekommen wir bisher ohne trader, investoren, etc. Spekulanten ist ein sehr nagitiv behaftetes wort.

Um meine obige these zu untermauern, gibt es viele untersuchungen die belegen dass es maximal 1 von 1000-10000 tradern / spekulanten schaffen, langfristig profit zu machen.
1916  Local / Deutsch (German) / Re: Campbx, noch eine neue Bitcoinbörse on: July 10, 2011, 08:03:32 AM
Noch eine Börse mehr kann jedenfalls nicht schaden...

Die Behauptung ist wahrscheinlich nicht falsch, aber helfen tut eine weitere Bitcoin Börse auch nicht. Was Bitcoin bräuchte wäre echter Handel. Aber da passiert soweit ich sehen kann nicht viel. Stattdessen sprießen die Bitcoin Börsen wie die Pilze aus dem Boden.

Meinem Eindruck nach beruht der derzeitige Bitcoin Hype darauf, dass viele denken, sie könnten durch clevere Spekulation was ohne eigene Arbeit dazuverdienen. Während die Miner durchaus eine Leistung erbringen tun die Spekulanten das nicht. Das Geld, das durch Spekulation mit Bitcoins verdient wird, kommt durch neue Benutzer, die auch ein paar Bitcoins haben wollen. Wenn kein Handel mit realen Gütern dazukommt, dann bleibt das eine Blase, die irgendwann platzt. Ein weiteres Problem, das durch die Spekulationen hervorgerufen wird, ist dass der Bitcoin Kurs so stark schwankt, dass echter Handel dadurch behindert wird. Wer nimmt schon gerne Bitcoins, wenn deren Kurs um 50% schwankt?

Mauline

Sorry, aber dein Kommentar entbehrt jeder Logik und zeigt dass Du Dich mit Handeln nicht gut auskennst.
Spekulanten arbeiten mindestens genauso hart wie andere, der Traderjob ist sogar schwerer als viele andere, z.B. Miner.

1917  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: July 09, 2011, 04:21:16 PM
This depends on trader psychology. But as mentioned in my subscription service. We are seeing a short term bullish formation with a breakout of a bullish flag. I expect this to happen in the next 24-48 hours.
1918  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: July 09, 2011, 04:15:46 PM
as with many too obvious things and indicators, the weekend dip does not appear to happen. This may causse some buying rush when people realize that they can't get coins cheaper. It I'd always dangerous to look at 1 single indicator

The "weekend" is young.  It seems like the big "weekend" selloffs have been happening later (i.e. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday).

That may be a function of more traders getting a better idea of what their liquidity levels need to be for the weekend.

Sorry for not being clearer before (my mobile device is crap):

The weekend dip is a myth. Just because we have seen some weekend weakness for a couple of times does not make a good indicator.

More important is the summary of many technical aspects and then build a consolidated picture using many tools. Just using one tool will severely punish those people focusing too much on this one thing.

Because even if it works a couple of times, the next time this tool will fail and people sticking too rigidly to it will be washed out of the market.

Technical analysis is an art, not a computer program. (this should not sound arrogant, I am not saying I am a perfect analyst, but I have experienced many of these issues a decade ago when I started).

Just forget about the weekend effect in bitcoins (or at least use it in conjunction with other analyses).
1919  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: July 09, 2011, 11:48:51 AM
as with many too obvious things and indicators, the weekend dip does not appear to happen. This may causse some buying rush when people realize that they can't get coins cheaper. It I'd always dangerous to look at 1 single indicator
1920  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: July 07, 2011, 10:27:36 PM
So far we're seeing a continuation of yesterdays rally, although its not on as big of volume as yesterdays but it still credible. The $16.5-$17 level still proves to a key resistance level.
true.
we may see a rally to higher levels again

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