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1901  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 09, 2013, 07:06:59 PM
It's not coming back guys...

Police Arrest 8 In International Silk Road Busts [npr.org]

drug trade cannot be killed. when they took down pablo escobar (which enterprise dwarfes sr), what had the us and columbian prohibitionists achieved ? columbian drug trade split up into thousands of small scale enterprises. they took out the big guy and ended up with a much harder to control hoard of little guys. more drugs were produced/sold/smuggled then before.

Yeah that is entirely the same thing as sending drugs to the consumer via postal service.
1902  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 09, 2013, 06:28:19 PM
It's not coming back guys...

Police Arrest 8 In International Silk Road Busts [npr.org]
1903  Other / Meta / Re: Custom avatars don't working now? on: October 09, 2013, 02:46:33 PM
Not only that my avatar has been deleted as well.
1904  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Let Wikipedia know, that we are here! on: October 09, 2013, 12:38:21 PM
Who is this "we"?

The king of Bitcoin.

Dear highness!
1905  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Silkroad Launch another bubble? on: October 09, 2013, 10:55:40 AM
In the spirit of looking at things as "No such thing as bad publicity"

Keep lying to yourselves.
1906  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 09, 2013, 10:54:00 AM
Napster was a new technology, like Bitcoin. As far as the analogy goes Bitcoin is Napster and Silk Road was the top40s.

No: Bitcoin is the Bittorrent where e-Gold or digicash was the Napster of digital currencies.

Going back to SR--an ebay for drugs is a new thing, so it would be analogous to Napster since SR was centralized.  the next gen SR will not be centralized.

Bitcoin is the first digital currency per se, e-gold was just a website, it's not even relevant for the debate.

But Bitcoin is something else also, it's a proof of concept, more academic work rather than what it is made out to be now. That alone doesn't have to be a bad thing, but that it wasn't made to handle the requirements very well is. The distributed blockchain for example is prohibitive expensive, it doesn't suit to store every transaction ever made on every node. The list goes on, proof of work consumes too much energy, transaction conformation time is to long to be suited for a POS system, etc...

It's a immature concept in every way, and one way or the other it is going to be replaced by a successor which was made with those things in mind, not just patched.
OK enough digressions.



I don't really think other tor marketplaces will be in place of silkroads former glory. The cat is out of the Bag essentially.
The FEDs have gathered a bulk of information by busting SR which makes it that much easier to go after the merchants there, if they move on to black market reloaded for instance the FEDs would posses postal codes of some of their customers at the very least and can track the shipment back to the origin, building profiles and eventually busting the sellers.

If you don't believe that, let me tell you the process has already started... the sellers will have their hands full to stay ahead of the FEDs for the foreseeable future. Business as usual under these circumstances should be out of the question.
http://krebsonsecurity.com/2013/10/feds-arrest-alleged-top-silk-road-drug-seller/
1907  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Ross Ulbricht (allegedly a DPR of Silk Road) support & legal defense site on: October 08, 2013, 03:29:24 PM

haha Smiley
1908  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Ross Ulbricht (allegedly a DPR of Silk Road) support & legal defense site on: October 08, 2013, 03:09:27 PM
multiple dpr's seems legit

No it's not, the timeline of events is consistent with a single DPR which happens to be named Ross Ulbricht.
http://shadowlife.cc/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/SR-Timeline.html
1909  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Ross Ulbricht (allegedly a DPR of Silk Road) support & legal defense site on: October 08, 2013, 02:29:34 PM
https://www.rossulbricht.org/multiple-dread-pirates-roberts-eileen-ormsby-inquires-before-and-after-the-bust/


Multiple Dread Pirates! Was pirateat40 one of them?
Simply hilarious, ok now everybody raise their hands who thinks this theory has merit. But please at least read the criminal complaint before you do.
1910  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 08, 2013, 02:18:43 PM
Silk Road was the Napster.  We're just getting started bro...

Napster was a new technology, like Bitcoin. As far as the analogy goes Bitcoin is Napster and Silk Road was the top40s.
1911  Economy / Speculation / Re: 600k, 27k FBI seizure theories on: October 08, 2013, 01:50:32 PM
They gonna auction them off, like anything else they confiscate which isn't cash.

The 600k would either be traded by DPR with the curt for a deal or if not he'd be the first prisoner with $80mil onin his head, I can't wait to see how that would turn out.
Every outcome would be hilarious.
1912  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 07, 2013, 10:03:07 PM
Odalv, yes
notme explained quite well what I am thinking.

I am more interested to know when will the feds sell the confiscated coins, that could have an impact on the market.

I'm more concerned with the 600k coins they haven't have control over (yet). Considering DPR will likely live the rest of his life behind bars, that's a ticket to make pretty damn sure their value never reaches anything significant.

If he has his money stored in brain wallets he can do a lot with that while behind bars.  Unless, of course they catch on and put him in solitary confinement.

The FBI claims they have his encrypted wallet...
1913  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 07, 2013, 08:03:31 PM
I am more interested to know when will the feds sell the confiscated coins, that could have an impact on the market.

I'm more concerned with the 600k coins they haven't have control over (yet). Considering DPR will likely live the rest of his life behind bars, that's a ticket to make pretty damn sure their value never reaches anything significant.
1914  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 07, 2013, 07:59:25 PM
Yup, Silkroad is like the Hydra of Lerna. One down, two new pop up. Government is going to lose this.

The hydra gets it at the end. Don't you think the FBI will utilize the data they got from the SR sever to go after the merchants there?

What data exactly do you are think they recovered?  Nicknames, product lists, public keys and and country seems like about it.

Was pgp mandatory? If not there are at least some postal codes and consumer addresses.
1915  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 07, 2013, 07:41:20 PM
Yup, Silkroad is like the Hydra of Lerna. One down, two new pop up. Government is going to lose this.

The hydra gets it at the end. Don't you think the FBI will utilize the data they got from the SR sever to go after the merchants there?
1916  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 07, 2013, 06:31:10 PM
so is the Chinese bitcoin "economy" purely speculation? is there anything going on besides mining and exchange?

Not that I am aware of.
1917  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 07, 2013, 06:16:47 PM
I may be in the minority on a lot of issues, but the fact that prices remain basically unchanged by this leads me to believe that SR was a minor player. Don't get me wrong, I think most drugs should be legalized. But bitcoin now has a large and complex ecosystem. Any one use is trivial compared to the myriad things bitcoin is good for.

No Bitcoin isn't a large ecosystem it just consumes the power of a small country.
The remaining activity can be put into two categories:

1.) ASIC sales, which are a zero sum game and do not contribute anything to economic activity and are just a lottery ticket for yet to be released Bitcoins, it's speculating either way.
2.) Enthusiasts consuming in Bitcoin and thats a small minority in comparison to ASIC sales. They pay a premium for that to other enthusiasts, but other people are just not into that.

A third category doesn't really exist, gimmicks like humble bundle or wordpress for Bitcoin don't really generate any volume. (Check their published statistics)
Paying with Bitcoins in some German hipster bar is laughable, I think I don't get any arguments there.
Silkroad was the 3rd category until now...
1918  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 07, 2013, 06:02:07 PM
Yeah I put it there.
1919  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 07, 2013, 04:22:51 PM

With Silk Road down Bitcoin now has now no practical use. ...
Never used SR. But I use bitcoin all the time for other things. I could care less about SR and their closing has no effect on my spending habits. If bitcoin were dependent on the decisions of crackheads then it would already be gone.

+1

Your experiences aren't representative for everybody involved in bitcoin,
You are a minority and I said bitcoin is to remain for the true believers.
1920  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Scenario on: October 07, 2013, 03:08:49 PM
Ok here's your precious TA
I don't really trade on that method though, just so it's consistent with common practices here.



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