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$ swaps are slowly decreasing, not falling. They did fall in February, but now it's still undecided. And yet no jump in BTC swaps.
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empowering gave me an idea for a new poll question: How many bitcoins would JorgeStolfi need to have in order to become a bitcoin nutter advocate?  |
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I understand that the missing fiat was loaned to Tibanne and KKShade, so Karpeles can continue to screw his customers while living lavishly.
From the 'liabilities' section it's unclear to me how the deposited / missing bitcoins were appraised. Anyone can clarify this?
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Until now most alts were traded for bitcoins, creating extra bitcoin demand, but if they start trading directly for fiat
then there will be some extra seller pressure on bitcoin. Challenged, I don't think so, not yet.
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I am very curious how the missing fiat will be explained by Karpeles and Kobayashi.
AFAIK there is only some 7M$ left, out of 70M$ (or more) deposited MtGox customer funds.
Bitcoins could be hacked out of Gox, but the fiat?
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3d MACD divergence turned red on all exchanges, for the first time since May.
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Big potential sellers wait for a clear downtrend, which is not apparent now. IMO there's a looming correction in both bulllish and bearish scenarios.
But sellers wait until the last minute, and then sell if a downtrend is confirmed, that's how bitcoin trading works.
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...
Exchange has a list of authorized middlemen. Client sends fiat to a middleman with bank transfer, and the middleman will deposit CNY to the client's exchange account. It could be done within 30 minutes
...
Important question: can the middleman deposit more CNY into his own exchange account, or he already has the CNY in his account and only moves the required sum to the client's account? |
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Exchange insider, whatever the profession. Has access to the most relevant information.
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...
Looks like at best I will be half right by year end.
2500$ by year's end? Possible, but don't forget a small detail: you'll have to turn Chinese media positive on Bitcoin and have the PBoC reverse it's stance too. Otherwise, in a bullish scenario, just breaking the ATH sometime in November - December. In a bearish scenario, capitulation below 340$. |
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...............................
Unless Huobi has some kind of wierd trading features that allow this kind of orders this is very dodgy imo.
Maybe Huobi is trying to implement a Chinese version of Willy the bot? |
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Just some simple math... Two thousand early adopters spend 50 BTC each on Dell hardware. Result: 100k extra BTC sold on exchanges, triggering a healthy capitulation.  is this a joke and I'm just being dumb? why would someone spend 30 grand on dell computers? I dont think he was joking, unfortunately. I was being sarcastic. The uber-bulls believe that because of this announcement a new wave of willing bagholders will storm the exchanges with mountains of fresh fiat, pumping the price 'to da moon'. But this is as likely to happen as the scenario I suggested, of 100k BTC quickly spent on Dell hardware by early adopters. In reality, this only brings more legitimacy to bitcoin, so it won't be banned in the USA (which was already known since 2013). For the price, it's mildly bearish, Dell BTC acceptance will probably add a small seller pressure on the exchanges. As for the healthy capitulation, I am serious. The April drop to 340$ wasn't capitulation. While it's possible to have a new bubble after the old one without capitulation, this would be the first time for bitcoin. And I believe that in order to go 'to da moon' (actually, to enter the mania phase of the new bubble), a capitulation event is a must. |
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Just some simple math... Two thousand early adopters spend 50 BTC each on Dell hardware. Result: 100k extra BTC sold on exchanges, triggering a healthy capitulation. |
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What's with that glitch on Huobi displayed by bitcoinwisdom? Volatility with very little volume?
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1k dump on Bistamp. And yet Huobi andd OKcoin seem to be leading down.
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Considering the current growth rate of $ swaps, by the 21st July there should be about 34M$ total,
and with an average buying price of 600$, and the start of 16M$ on the 19th May (start of local uptrend),
about 30k BTC would have been bought on credit. The stage is going to be set for a nice flashcrash.
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Cost / Value continues to plummet, as Price slowly inches higher.
its time to buy.
For some reason, Bitstamp believes it's time to dump.  |
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Thank you for posting China analysis too. My point is that since the Chinese are more bearish these days and they seem to lead
the market down, the bullish scenario might get invalidated in China first. I see the market as being at a turning point where it has
to decide for a completion of wave 1 or to resume wave C (which IMO so far has been truncated, in the bullish scenario).
Also I believe that a flash crash to the support of 540$ won't invalidate the bullish scenario, if it holds then a wave 1 peak of ~800$ is possible.
The lower below 540$ it drops, the higher the probability of resuming wave C with a healthy capitulation well below 340$.
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