So we are still in the overestimation phase? Accumulation phase just started for me.
Accumulation phase is about to start for me. I expect the price to remain like this for a while, so I have the time  If you go back 2 years estimates would have put bitcoin well over a $1000 right now, that is the "estimate" that we are currently below. His graph is saying that while the actual current price is lower than the old estimated price, we could be at the point where the actual growth starts increasing up to the estimate and then surpassing previous estimates. That is the idea behind the graph. Only time will tell what the truth is. And fonzie, stop being a douce already. It's only cool when you're a child. |
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I'm slowly getting worried that even though BTC will perform very well this year it will not be because bitcoin is so awesome and its opponents suddenly start to see the light but instead because some large scale shit will happen that brings down the conventional markets. When bad things start to happen they will happen all at once. Yes your bitcoins will be worth millions of dollars but at what cost? at what cost?
The markets should go into bear territory later this year when interest rates rise. However for a crash to happen you need a catalyst like a major war or other political event, or for a major company to fail. It is not inevitable. I hope it doesn't happen even though it might benefit me in some ways. Lots of people will get hurt in the process. The bitcoin price is dropping fast right now. I think it is because of the 20mb feud. People who don't understand what is going on think that the sky is falling and pull all of their money out. This is fine for me because i am patient and I love a chance to buy low. When this thing is resolved expect the price to shoot back up. Also, some Texan dude from Ixia said in CyCon last week that there will be a major cyber conflict event this year with human casualties. All this in alignment with Jade Helm, NATO military exercises, California drought (possibly geoengineering) and chemtrails appearing as far as in the sky of eastern Europe lately. If bitcoin's price was to go to the Moon again then I'm pretty sure it would correlate with some other grand scale events. Surely it couldn't be purely a cyber event that results in human causalities....right? |
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Remember, this Lawsky guy will soon be quitting office and getting full on into crypto realm. Excellent business model. 1) Create difficult legal maze that everyone has to go through 2) Setup consulting office to show people how to get through maze 3) Profit On a lighter note, if businesses and wall street "need" bitlicense before they have any balls to start innovating with bitcoin, then fine I will applaud Lawskey for at least paving the legal road for them. But props to all the companies that are currently working on blockchain tech and that are most likely in more favorable jurisdictions than New York or the USA... |
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Somebody posted when they first started trading that xbt provider had 4000 coins for initial backing. Well today they are at 880k notes issues which is 4400 bitcoins. Sounds like they had to move those coins over to xbt provider to keep backing notes sold.
That was me that saw their 4000 coins move to a new address and just sit there. I had figured it was for XBT provider (since they were moved right before it opened on NASDAQ Stockholm), but they ended up selling those 4000 coins on Bitstamp at a rate of 500BTC/day. Currently there is no evidence for KNC Miners having any bitcoins behind XBT Provider at all. They just moved 750 bitcoins to bitstamp for sell confirmed: https://blockchain.info/address/17uTKRCmCgdE5ie85tLu8hP2kRkh4zbhdh
They will likely sell the rest of the 8000+ BTC over the next week, be ready. As a side note they must have been reading my post because they have now moved their miners to a completely different wallet. |
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why is it so special that a certain party is moving their coins. they most likely did it for security purposes. nothing special to be honest.
1) KNC "screwed' a lot of people that had paid them for miners. 2) Large net sells on bitstamp may take place 3) No evidence of any bitcoins behind XBT Provider Those are the concerns and reasons why I mention all of KNC's coins moving |
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If the 9200 coins were moved to back up XBT Provider one would have to ask 2 questions: 1) Why had they not already done this? 2) Since that was all of their "visible' bitcoins, does that mean that they are currently holding no coins at all? A few weeks ago they moved 4000BTC into a separate address that they never used before which I **thought*** was going to be for the initial XBT Provider backing, but what happened is they actually just waited a few days and then began selling them on Bitstamp. I have a funny feeling that is what this next 9000 coins is going to do.
Bitstamp is where KNC sell their coins, most large miners (unless unlimited VC funding) need to sell some portion of their coins in order to cover costs. In the past they have always sold a few thousand coins once every few weeks (they currently mine about 125ish bitcoins per day). When they move 500btc/day for 1 week into bitstamp I think it's most likely to sell them. As far as we know they are in the mining game rather than the exchange trading game so moving them to bitstamp to "trade" with rather than just a flat out "sell" is unlikely.
This is not meant to induce panic. But at the very least we should question where the bitcoins behind XBT Provider are actually located (if it's not these 9200 coins that were just separated from their main wallets)
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Oh shit, this looks pretty bad! Thanks for the update. Will keep an eye on it, but it seems they are trying to dump it ASAP before Bitcoin goes sub 200 which shouldn´t take too long anympre.  You got it. Hey don't tell anyone but Satoshi told me he is going to dump his coins at the same time. Remember, don't tell anyone I said so! Even a 9000 BTC sell isn't really that bad in the grand scheme of things (remember the 30k sell wall?). My bigger problem is if they move their last 9000 to bitstamp and sell them (or something to that regard), then what bitcoins are backing up their XBT Provider shares? |
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Edit: They have also been selling about 500 bitcoins a day on bitstamp for the past week or so, which is about 4x the amount of bitcoin they mine per day.
Have they stated this somewhere? How is this known? Block chain analysis. If you follow their coins, you find their wallets (IE KNC miner purchases). If you find their wallets you can see where they spend their coins. If they spend their coins with other wallets that you have identified you know exactly who they send their coins to (IE monitoring Bitstamp deposit addresses). In this case I know KNC's biggest wallet addresses and I know Bitstamp's wallet addresses. I can therefore see KNC move bitcoins to Bitstamp. As far as them moving the 9200+ BTC to a brand new address, I'm not sure what they are doing there. If it was a hack I may never know. If it's just to a new wallet then I can just continue to monitor their coins. If it is a new bitstamp address eventually I can follow the coins to bitstamp's other addresses once bitstamp moves the coins internally etc. Cool, thanks. Do you have any automated tools to monitor certain addresses for coin movement? Unfortunately no. I just keep my eye on a few big players that I remain skeptical about. |
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Edit: They have also been selling about 500 bitcoins a day on bitstamp for the past week or so, which is about 4x the amount of bitcoin they mine per day.
Have they stated this somewhere? How is this known? Block chain analysis. If you follow their coins, you find their wallets (IE KNC miner purchases). If you find their wallets you can see where they spend their coins. If they spend their coins with other wallets that you have identified you know exactly who they send their coins to (IE monitoring Bitstamp deposit addresses). In this case I know KNC's biggest wallet addresses and I know Bitstamp's wallet addresses. I can therefore see KNC move bitcoins to Bitstamp. As far as them moving the 9200+ BTC to a brand new address, I'm not sure what they are doing there. If it was a hack I may never know. If it's just to a new wallet then I can just continue to monitor their coins. If it is a new bitstamp address eventually I can follow the coins to bitstamp's other addresses once bitstamp moves the coins internally etc. |
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Here is the transaction: https://blockchain.info/address/17uTKRCmCgdE5ie85tLu8hP2kRkh4zbhdhAny speculation as to why? Mass selling incoming? Hack? Moving them to XBT Provider account? Edit: They have also been selling about 500 bitcoins a day on bitstamp for the past week or so, which is about 4x the amount of bitcoin they mine per day. |
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I can't even imagine what someone is thinking if they are buying right now.... lol jesus. Brave souls.
Futures are still over spot @ OKCoin, but not by much.
If you don't like buying low, would you have suggested buying at $1000 instead? |
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In general these types of posts are better fit for the speculation sub-thread for future reference.
In response to your price predictions I highly highly doubt bitcoin price will be stable for 2 years. It'll either be worth a LOT more or go down to near $0.
down to near $0? since you're a high ranked hero member you must know that this isn't possible within a few years. it may go down, but nothing like you say. is it possible for it to go to for example 1 dollar? i dont think so as there will be users of it, i think it can go to 20 dollars neither 20, at worst case i could see it going at the price before the 1200 peak happened, which was around 90, but in the end what i really think is that it won't go even below 150-200, because the mining farms are already too big, to let that happen, they worked hard for growing their big farms , i think they will start buying too if the price fall too much When I say "near $0" I mean it will either succeed and go up greatly in price/value or it can fail with maybe just a small group of people running the nodes and willing to pay pennies just to have the bitcoins. Is it likely to fail? --No, not in my opinion. But it is a possibility. How could it fail? Well if every country made it illegal with the death penalty as punishment there would be very very few people using it. If the EDCSA curve was found to have a mathematical solution that could also be its downfall (not that it's likely). If we have the evolution of a better cryptocurrency that could be its downfall, etc. Bitcoin is highly likely to succeed and will continue to grow in value, which is why I think 2 years of stability around $240 is absurd. Bitcoin has never been that stable and won't be that stable for another 10-30 years (at a much higher price). |
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In general these types of posts are better fit for the speculation sub-thread for future reference.
In response to your price predictions I highly highly doubt bitcoin price will be stable for 2 years. It'll either be worth a LOT more or go down to near $0.
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Here are some interesting graphs. Shanhai index looks like completely normal growth to me   Nasdaq growth looks slightly more legit than the 2000 tech bubble (not completely vertical)  S&P 500 growth shows how strong the economy is right now  This is basically the roaring 20's all over again, let the good times roll. Also to note GDP growth has been adjusted to -0.7% from its earlier 0.2%. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/business/economy/us-economy-gdp-q1-revision.html?_r=0 |
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A big crash is incoming for tomorrow. You've been warned. Get ready to sell, don't be a bag-holder.
oh i didn't realize we crashed yesterday. i think you have to change your time machine it is broken and gives you wrong results NLC is becoming desperate and is running out of creativity. |
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lol you can do the same thing with a $35 raspberry pie...
Funny that you say that, I eneded up buying a RPi 2 and will be setting up my first dedicated node on that device. Hopefully it will arrive this week. |
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I gave it a read. A nice rundown overall if you want it laid out for you.
What was most worthwhile were the insights into how some of the major players got started and what they were thinking at certain points. The author evidently had plenty of access to them.
It ends in early 2014 though which was surprising, but the news comes so thick and fast you have to have a cutoff point somewhere.
You read the whole book today? |
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Without attempting to disrespect anyone, keeping any significant amount of coins on an exchange has always been a bad idea. A major purpose of bitcoin/monero is that you are able to be your own bank and are free of the pitfalls from seizures, bail-ins, bankruptcies etc.
Add the cryptocurrency ideology on top of us living in the post Mt Gox world and you really have to ask yourself why you decided to keep any amount of wealth on an exchange that you didn't plan to immediately trade and then withdraw again.
"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me".
As far as lending any sizeable amount of Monero for shorting I'd advise against it. You're compounding the effects of another Mt. Gox possibility with the addition of a large and quick squeeze with the potential for not enough liquidity for you to get your monero back (I think this happened to huboi or some other chinese bitcoin exchange a while back).
Edit: Especially for an exchange that claims to be located in the US but is somehow slipped under the radar for KYC/AML for a very long time, sounds fishy right from the start.
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