There is a timing problem with the 'buy to dump immediately on exchanges' scenario: [ ... ] The buyer has to be cautious with respect to market movement 27th June - 3rd July.
Yes, he must include that forced delay in his estimate of how much money he would get if he got those coins. It is irrelevant for the optimistic bidder, very important for the pessimistic bidder. That's why the pessimistic bidders are unlikely to win if the market is in a downtrend. The bears should bid like 20% below market price. The bulls (if any) will be willing to hold the bag. |
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If I were bidding at such a sealed-bid auction, I would try to estimate (a) how much revenue I could get from the item if I got it, and (b) what is the minimum profit that I would be happy with on my investment. Then I would bid for the difference (a) minus (b).
For example, I am currently pessimistic about the chances of the price ever getting much higher than now, and expect a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, if I were to get those bitcoins I would try to sell them right away for the best price, as fast as I could. If the auction were today, I would expect to get maybe 550 USD/BTC average from selling 3000 coins on the exchanges over the next week. Thus, I would bid for 500 USD/BTC to have an expected profit of 150'000$ with an investment of 1'500'000$.
By the same reasoning, someone with a more optimistic outlook may bid higher than market. If he expects BTC to be 10'000 USD next year, then he can bid at 5'000 USD/BTC and still expect to make a nice profit. But if such person existed, he would be buying all coins in the market now, at any price. Obviously the optimists are all out of money now.
I suppose that one can build more sophisticated probabilistic models to find one's optimum bid, given one's expectations about future bitcoin prices. However, one must assume a very broad probability distribution for the other people's bids, so I doubt that one can do much better than the simplistic method above.
There is a timing problem with the 'buy to dump immediately on exchanges' scenario: The bidding is on the 27th, Online auction period from 6:00 AM EDT to 6:00 PM EDT 30th Winning bidder notified by 5:00 PM EDT 1st July Phase III Deadline for winning bidder to initiate wire transfer The bitcoins will reach the winner(s) after the wire transfer completes (at least that seems reasonable to me), so they can only be dumped around the 3rd July. The buyer has to be cautious with respect to market movement 27th June - 3rd July. |
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TERA, is it possible to guesstimate when the (mass?) forced closure of longs will happen?
I believe that the market still has about a week of consolidation before deciding on major direction.
BFX could be the market leader, in a bearish way, ultimately meaning it could trigger capitulation.
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Looks like T-72 or T-84 tanks but I could be wrong. I think its a 90s tank model. Does anybody know?
They are T-72 with ERA. |
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Someone seems to be dumping on 4h MACD divergence... It was a reliable indicator in March, but the market has slowed down since. I noticed something strange: the bid sum /ask sum ratio for BTCChina has been well below the price for the last 3 months. The same ratio on Bitstamp has been 'normal', above price most of the time and only dropping when price dropped a lot. So I have a conspiracy theory: arbitrage should have been easiest between Chinese exchanges, so I would expect the same strange ratio to appear for Huobi and OKCoin (but I don't know if it is so, if you can get a graph for those it would be great). However, if Huobi and OKCoin show a 'normal' ratio graph, my conspiracy theory is that they might show fake fiat to boost the bids. By doing so, they would allow insiders to cash out at reasonably high prices, and after that they might show the true bids.  |
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Why is everything called a "bubble"? A bubble by definition is something that is unnatural, unjustified, and rare; not something something that occurs regularly. The only bubble that has ever occured in Bitcoin was when it went to $32 in 2011. The $15-$32 portion of that might be called a bubble, and wasn't seen again for 2 years.
I usually agree with TERA's posts, but not with this one. IMO a bubble is normal and very common, the mania phase of the bubble is somewhat unnatural, unjustified and rare. Silver in 2010 - 2011 had a mania phase, of course not as manic as bitcoin.  Had a wave A in 2011 - 2012, wave B in 2012, and now seems to be still in wave C (back to pre-bubble price). |
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If bitcoin were a company, the time for Wall street to move in would have been 2012 IMO.
But only the Winklevii did the move, because bitcoin was still largely unknown. After 2 bubble manias in 2013,
the risk / reward ratio isn't that appealing anymore. Remember, bitcoin is 'banned' by some banks and countries.
OTOH, if the consolidation breaks downwards and we'll have a proper capitulation, price at the bottom could
be low enough to entice some WS fiat to pump the next bubble.
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Poll results are crap would you buy 1 eur for 1 eur and 10 cents... ok now you will say btc is not eur... ok than I suggest that US Marshals keep buyin btc on exchanges and keep sellin it to moron bidders for 10% profit on every auction... cause btc they sell are clean and so shiny...
This ... you gave me a good laugh! |
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A small clarification: 1h MACD is still positive, just the divergence went negative.
MACD is a lagging indicator, the divergence is less lagging. This term confusion happens a lot in these forums.
Possible way to explain it to someone with physics/math background: TA math physics price function coordinates MACD first derivative speed divergence second derivative acceleration Yes, good work. |
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Maybe now only al-Qaeda are still alive, fighting against Assad, because the moderate ones had no chance (thanks Obummer).
I don't want more involvement, but what Obummer does is similar to what happened in Vietnam. The US army eventually won
the attrition war (the vietcong was depleted), then left and the NVA conquered the South. If you think US occupation of Iraq
was bad (and I don't say it was good, they made many mistakes, especially under Rumsfeld), the civil war is going to be worse.
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The 2013 bubbles (well, mania phase of the bubbles) in March-April and November-December were driven, the first by the block reward halving,
and the second by the opening of new Chinese exchanges and initial good press by Chinese media. The next block reward halving will be in 2017,
and another new wave of speculators (bagholders), willing to pay 1000+ $ (or 5000$ in the future) per bitcoin, is nowhere to be seen yet.
The exponential trend needs a lot of fiat to be sustained, that fiat doesn't magically come out of thin air.
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For his heresy, Mervyn will be called a perma-bear from now on! The biggest problem I see on the short term is China. While outside China bitcoin has two economies to support it (one bullish: Silk Road 2 and clones, and one slightly bearish, the normal merchants accepting bitcoin), in China there is no real use for bitcoin, except maybe bribery (punishment for drug dealers in China is very harsh). So the Chinese speculators, mostly bagholders IMO, react strongly to FUD / real bad news. Since the Chinese exchanges have difficulties attracting new fiat, IMO they will act as a resistance above a price level, that could be ~800$. And if the PBoC decides to worsen their stance on bitcoin, we could see some serious panic selling. During the last 2 months there wasn't much new FUD from China, but this can change anytime, and only insiders will know in advance. |
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McCain wanted to ship weapons and other equipment to moderate fractions fighting against Assad, not to ISIL. And Hillary Clinton had a similar opinion.
But Obummer said no, just like he said no to recent requests of help from the Iraqi government. The ISIL has some US built weapons, but shipped
from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States. If the Iraqi army collapses, the fight will be carried on by Shia militias and Iranian volunteers, resulting
in a civil (sectarian) war that could last years and could do massive damage in destroyed property and loss of life.
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...b) bitcoin never retraces to a mere 10% under your buy-in (where you are liquidated)...
Exactly. All it takes is a 10% temporary price drop and you'd lose ALL your trading funds. |
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same goes for Litecoin, in fact investing in Litecoin is 10X riskier, it is insane but I follow the Risk/Reward rule, the riskier the investment can be the bigger the reward usually is.... see most of you are not objective , you are just a bunch of blind investors.
If you invest in Litecoin now you may be disappointed short term. Litecoin inflation is high, comparable with bitcoin's in 2011. So far, due to lack of seller pressure and a pump, bitcoin has (temporarily?) recovered, but I doubt litecoin will do the same. In 2011 bitcoin dropped from 32$ to 2$, now litecoin may drop from 48$ to 3$ - 4$ if it will experience capitulation. |
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That would be plain robbery.  |
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A small clarification: 1h MACD is still positive, just the divergence went negative.
MACD is a lagging indicator, the divergence is less lagging. This term confusion happens a lot in these forums.
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And oda.krell is going to be called a perma-bear too!  Correct observation about the reluctance to sell. Compared with the early March peak of 710$, the 681$ peak saw about 10k less asks, but also 15M$ less in bids. So it appears Bistamp has been losing a lot of market share, or is this the effect of the decoupling with BFX? Also on the 15m chart it looks like someone is pumping with ~1K BTC buys and then sells in small chunks at the top of the local uptrend he created. |
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I know... Silk Road crash. Can't possibly happen again. Once in a lifetime...
Bullshit. News matter, but price has a way to create its own news that matter.
Like I said, I don't expect it, but I wouldn't be shocked either if it happens.
And we have a SilkRoad crash... Again!  SO the dip before the rally - check. It looks similar enough, but (on-exchange) volume doesn't fit. I personally believe we will see a local peak (that doesn't deserve the word "bubble" though) next month, but the overall theme will be one and a half step back for each two steps forward for a longer time still, imo. SR crash coincided with the bottom of corrective wave 2. IF we are now in wave 1 (and not still in wave C), then we have first to reach the peak of wave 1, around 750$ - 800$, then start corrective wave 2, which would take another 1 - 2 months to reach the bottom, so this IS NOT SR crash like. |
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