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All,
I will be away from computers the next 2 days and wanted to leave a short update.
As mentioned, BTC/USD are in a short/medium downtrend from the 8.9$ high. Key downside support levels are
4.7-5.3$ (but this actually is a weaker support that might not hold for very long)
3.5-3.66$ (medium strong support)
1.1$ (very strong)
Only a new high above 8.9$ and better, a break of 10$ will clearly signal the continuation of the (still intact) longterm rally.
have a great weekend and I will share the usual analysis as planned on Monday.
Your S3052
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All,
I will be away from computers the next 2 days and wanted to leave a short update.
As mentioned, BTC/USD are in a short/medium downtrend from the 8.9$ high. Key downside support levels are
4.7-5.3$ (but this actually is a weaker support that might not hold for very long)
3.5-3.66$ (medium strong support)
1.1$ (very strong)
Only a new high above 8.9$ and better, a break of 10$ will clearly signal the continuation of the (still intact) longterm rally.
have a great weekend and I will share the usual analysis as planned on Monday.
Your S3052
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The subscription will be handled simply by me sharing the analysis with you per email in a pdf format. You can register via PM, sharing an email contact, and paying the monthly subscription in Bitcoins. The service will start in June `11. Initially I take maximum 20 people. Price will be 5 BTC / month. Send me a private mail to register on first come, first serve basis.
Just an update. I have 11 Subscriptions out of the 20 slots. |
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If you want the price of bitcoins to increase, make using bitcoins more beneficial to people. Right now, bitcoins are mainly getting more expensive because they started rising in price a bit and people started buying them to sell later at a profit. This made the price go up further and even more people started buying them. The interest in bitcoins will start dying, people will realize that they can't really do much with their bitcoins and they will start selling them at lower and lower prices, and the price will fall.
What we need are more services that can be payed for in bitcoins, more goods, etc. Just telling miners to sell their bitcoins at a higher price will not help you.
+1 You summarized it perfectly. BTC/USD Prices are at least in a short term downward trend. |
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Hmm price is sagging quite a bit. I guess those supposed big deposits haven't cleared mt. gox yet?  s3052, what do you think are the current support and resistance levels? Here you go http://twitter.com/#!/BitcoinAnalystIn a nutshell, given the huge sell orders and the changed short term trend to down, buyers do not need to rush to buy now from a technical perspective. We are in a similar situation as Nov '10 - Dec '10 and Mar - Apr '10. Prices continue down and this can last a couple of months. |
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I value people's skepticism and there are 3 points that are important people understand:
1) I started the bitcoin technical analysis service back in Oct 2010 because I wanted to see how technical analysis works for this new market. And after 9 months I am very happy with my ability to forecast BTC/USD prices. I also cover Silver, Gold, DJI, SPX, DAX, NDX and I am equally happy with my forecast on those markets.
2) I have no interest to do "insider preemption trading" as it would hurt my longterm trust. In fact, I have reduced trading bitcoins recently just because of that.
3) Related to the above, I do have huge passion for the bitcoin economy overall, and this is my contribution. Many people in this forum continuously ask for new services to really enable paying things in bitcoins and so I do offer this. The price for one month of subscription is 5 BTC whatever they are worth in USD (as long as they remain above 0.5$).
I am perfectly fine if people express their opinion about me and others here in whatever way. They do not need to use my service.
I will continue focusing on my customers. As long as they are satisfied, I am happy.
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If they don't buy this snake oil, they'd buy another brand. I'm interested in these other brands you speak of... Hi ZMoney, what do you mean with your comment. I might not get it.. by the way, so far I have firm 7 subscribers. |
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This is based on technical analysis of the dollar index (DXY)
It already bottomed in 2008 and also made a mid term low in Nov '10, and is rallying since then.
There is at least 20% upside from here.
As forecast, the dollar has bottomed and did not break its 2008 low. Significant upside (more +20% in the DXY to above 90)  |
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This is what I started in another thread: http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=8453.msg123329#msg123329All, some of you have seen my Bitcoin Technical / Market analysis. After 9 months of service since October 2010 (see http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0), I want to build on it and expand it. .I will still plan to keep my 2x per week regular updates on bitcoinwatch for all people. What is new is that as some of you have suggested, I will offer a subscription based analysis.This subscription service provides: - Weekly in depth Bitcoin (BTC/USD) analysis
- Covers all time frames
- Includes Elliott Wave analysis and trading recommendations based on that
- Offers on top trading alerts
- Allows 1x per month a tailored analysis for your specific trading needs
The subscription will be handled simply by me sharing the analysis with you per email in a pdf format. You can register via PM, sharing an email contact, and paying the monthly subscription in Bitcoins. The service will start in June `11. Initially I take maximum 20 people. Price will be 5 BTC / month. Send me a private mail to register on first come, first serve basis. For info, I have already given individual, specific trading recommendations to some people tailored to their needs and they are very satisfied. Thanks for your trust already. I have already 5 out of 20 subscribers. |
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This is what I started in another thread: http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=8453.msg123329#msg123329All, some of you have seen my Bitcoin Technical / Market analysis. After 9 months of service since October 2010 (see http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0), I want to build on it and expand it. .I will still plan to keep my 2x per week regular updates on bitcoinwatch for all people. What is new is that as some of you have suggested, I will offer a subscription based analysis.This subscription service provides: - Weekly in depth Bitcoin (BTC/USD) analysis
- Covers all time frames
- Includes Elliott Wave analysis and trading recommendations based on that
- Offers on top trading alerts
- Allows 1x per month a tailored analysis for your specific trading needs
The subscription will be handled simply by me sharing the analysis with you per email in a pdf format. You can register via PM, sharing an email contact, and paying the monthly subscription in Bitcoins. The service will start in June `11. Initially I take maximum 20 people. Price will be 5 BTC / month. Send me a private mail to register on first come, first serve basis. For info, I have already given individual, specific trading recommendations to some people tailored to their needs and they are very satisfied. |
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All, some of you have seen my Bitcoin Technical / Market analysis. After 9 months of service since October 2010 (see http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0), I want to build on it and expand it. .I will still plan to keep some regular updates on bitcoinwatch for all people. What is new is that as some of you have suggested, I will offer a subscription based analysis.This subscription service provides: - Weekly in depth Bitcoin (BTC/USD) analysis
- Covers all time frames
- Includes Elliott Wave analysis and trading recommendations based on that
- Offers on top trading alerts
- Allows 1x per month a tailored analysis for your specific trading needs
The subscription will be handled simply by me sharing the analysis with you per email in a pdf format. You can register via PM ( S3052@gmx.ch), sharing an email contact, and paying the monthly subscription in Bitcoins. The service will start in June `11. Initially I took 20 people and I am expanding up to 50 subscribers as we added capacity. Price will be 5 BTC / month. Send me a mail to S3052@gmx.ch to register on first come, first serve basis. For info, I have already given individual, specific trading recommendations to some people tailored to their needs and they are very satisfied. |
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 Interim update. |
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This does not seem too far - fetched. The order book looks like a Tsunami. (unless there are a lot of dark pool bids hidden)  |
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Again, the charts gave a clear signal. This is the chart before the decline:
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Bitcoins are subject to the same psychological market influences as anything else i.e. greed/fear, and technical analyses is just a way to translate those influences into a visual format that can help make educated predictions. There are valid concerns that in such a thinly traded market there is the possibility of manipulation that will render some of the analyses invalid, which is why, in my opinion, it is always a wise idea to balance the technicals with the fundamentals. Nobody, no matter how experienced, knows exactly what is going to happen in the future. The most we can hope for is to make educated guesses with the information we have.
s3052 has come here offering his opinions on the direction of the trends in the short and long term based on whatever information he has. He offers this service for free and asks only that you donate if you find the information valuable. Don't like his opinions? Think he's a scammer? Fine, don't donate.
The purpose of this thread, (and correct me if I'm wrong, I'm new here too) is to contribute to the best of our ability our opinions of the direction of the trend based on technical chart levels -- not to debate the merits of technical analyses itself, or to criticize personally the members who offer those opinions freely.
It is quite easy to post a new thread. You could even start one with the title "The Bitcoin Technical Analyses of s3052 is Crap. Here's Why." and see if you get a favorable response. Perhaps some will even donate to you for saving them from being scammed. In the end the market will decide.
+1 Thanks for this fair assessment. 1. Some people here may remember what I have written when I started this thread on Oct 18, 2010: "For those who are interested in Technical Analysis and to use it to trade bitcoins.
A couple of comments first:
I will publish on a regular basis my p.o.v. This does not give any trading recommendation. Trading remains at your own risk.
I will regularly cover the most liquid markets and I may expand this to others (i.e. btcex in Russian Rubels).
Of note: Please don't mix this with fundamentals. This thread is specifically for technical analysis. Of course you are welcome to comment on fundamentals, but I will not reply."2. I have a 12h+ / day job and this is why I am encouraging you to donate some coins as I do this technical analysis on top of this job and my family. As Current-C mentioned, you do not have to. It would be great if you could keep this thread to its initial purpose. thanks in advance |
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BTC/USD behaves like any other financial market when it comes to chart patterns.
On the daily chart, we are in the EXPONENTIAL RISING pattern, with high risk to reverse in the next days.
On the minute chart, we see an ENDING DIAGONAL pattern, which looks textbook-style. Under this assumption, the top at 9 $ is already in.
Key trigger levels are
(1) 7.9 $ - 8.2 $
(2) 7.4-7.6 $. Confirmation of exponential reverse
First target 6 $
Second target 4 $
Alternate scenario is that BTC/USD makes one more top before reversing down.
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