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2041  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Colorado and Washington voters approve cannabis legalization (your move, feds) on: November 12, 2012, 12:04:57 AM
I have said it before and I will say it again. This is how it will play out. The states will legalize marijuana and individuals and groups will put millions of dollars of capitol into building businesses in various places. It will be in the form of land, vehicles, and other assets. The fed will stand by and let this industry grow. Then from time to time the federal government will swoop in and skim off some of the cream from these businesses via federal drug seizure laws, confiscating assets, cash, and property. They will treat it as their own little piggy bank based on ambiguity between state and federal law. This is already in progress to a certain extent.

And, to a certain extent, that's actually progress.  I'm sure that it doesn't seem like it, but governments exist at all because having a permanent criminal class that would keep the other mobs out really was progress to the early farmers who could be raided by any group at any time.  From this perspective an established annual 'taxation' cycle really was progress.

Seriously; perfect is the enemy of the good.  MJ will be legalized only after a decade or two wherein the general public has experience with it and the drug prohibitionists' predictions do not occur.  What the feds do in the meantime is whatever the feds are going to do.
2042  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Wikipedia: "Some criticize Bitcoin for being a Ponzi scheme..." on: November 11, 2012, 11:56:33 PM
That guy also makes a bit of circular argument; considering that many of those articles that he talks about accusing Bitcoin of being a ponzi scheme reference his Wikipedia article as their source.
2043  Economy / Goods / Re: 12 Month Netflix code only $8 on: November 11, 2012, 11:54:03 PM
I'm a netflix member and don't even know how one would redeem such a code.
2044  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin major fail - doesn't allow credit creation (aka deflationary currency) on: November 11, 2012, 11:52:45 PM
General agreement here too. Running up against limits in the number of transactions per block could be fun, but I guess a free market on transaction fees could prevent this from becoming an issue for a while.

Yes, it could; and the size limit on the bitcoin block is arbitrary and amendable.  It's generally assumed that the max-blocksize will be increased several orders of magnitude in the future; but never permitted to be unlimited.  This forces a premium on transactions that need to be processed quickly if there the network is close to the limit.  In prior threads on this very topic, a max-blocksize limit of 1 Gbyte is likely to be the high end in a distant future wherein Bitcoin is processing more transactions per second than Visa while remaining within the practial limits of bandwidth that a dedicated server can afford, assuming that the costs of bandwidth do not continue to drop, which is also unlikely.
2045  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin major fail - doesn't allow credit creation (aka deflationary currency) on: November 11, 2012, 10:57:02 PM
Unfortunately, such a demonstration of fractional reserve seems contrived and lacks the flexibility of the incumbent banking system,

Not really, it's just flexible in another place.  Fiat currencies are 'flexible' in the sense that the absolute number of monetary units (the total monetary base) is not fixed, and therefore the issuing entity (in theory) can add or witdraw (ha, ha) currency as it sees fit to maintain "price stability".  This makes the assumtion that price stability is desirable, but there is no economic reason that this is so.  Hard currencies, like Bitcoin or gold, have a fixed monetary base so they are "flexible" at the price point; which is one reason that the market exchange rate of bitcoin moves so much relative to fiat currencies and can be expected to do so for some time.

While parrallel clones of the bitcoin system could lead to expansion of the monetary base in theory, I don't think that's what is going to happen in practice.  A competing cryptocurrecy has to offer an advantage over bitcoin in some fashion or another in order to establish a market value at all.  This could be done by a niche need, such as with Namecoin; or it could be done by the promises of a trusted entity, such as WalMartCoin or AmazonCoin; or it could simply be that a clone fixes an as-yet-unknown bitcoin flaw (that is otherwise unfixable within bitcoin itself).  But without some obvious advantage in a particular market or function, bitcoin clones will never do well if they have to compete alongside bitcoin, because bitcoin has the first-to-market advantage and new vendors will desire to use the most widely known cryptocurrency first while most new digital consumers are going to desire the most widely accepted cryptocurrency as well. 
2046  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin major fail - doesn't allow credit creation (aka deflationary currency) on: November 11, 2012, 10:44:37 PM
What about bonds (securitized loans if I understand correctly)?

Bonds are just a form of private loan, wherein some company (or other institution, such as a city government) needs to raise their cash position.  Normally, bonds are a one-for-one exchange, no fraction involved.  Investment banks will often issue bonds to be sold, so that they can raise their reserve fund high enough to grant a huge construction loan without breaking the reserve ratio required by law.  This is what is supposed to happen, but it doesn't always.  Bonds are unsecured revolving credit for huge institutions in a similar fashion that credit cards are for consumers.  Bonds function much like an old fashioned bank CD,  in the sense that bonds don't pay out on demand unless you're willing to sell them for a discount on the secondary bond markets.  Utility bonds are some of the safest places to store fiat currency in any of the first world economies, but really all they are is storage.  You're lucky to keep up with inflation under normal circumstances and you certain won't right now.  But even utility bonds sometimes go bad.  Municipal bonds, IMHO, are riskier than utility bonds mostly because you have a group of polititians trying to make a sound judgement on whether or not they can repay the costs of constructing that new sewer system with the tax base.  So you have a group of people who salary is not dependent upon their economic prowess, deciding upon a debt to be paid back by taxes, the amount of which is not often related to the success of the project it's funding.  Whereas a utility bond is pretty straight forward, you're loaning money to a company that (for example) builds power plants with the expectation selling the power from those plants to the city and it's people. 
2047  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin major fail - doesn't allow credit creation (aka deflationary currency) on: November 11, 2012, 05:16:44 PM
A couple of comments on the IOUs, warehouse receipts, customer deposits and loans in a BTC economy.

First. With the current system, the IOU that you get from the bank is indistinguishable from the currency. Say you deposit 100 USD in BoA account, the bank will show that you have 100 USD, not 100 BoAD that are redeemable 1 on 1 with USD. So, that's a big difference because that will mean we need another form of currency to make BTC currency work, right? Name it banks' IOUs, vouchers, litecoins, etc.


No we wouldn't need such an alternative currency, but one could exist. 

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Second. There is no such thing as customer deposits and loans with BTC because BTC is built for transactions; you cannot "deposit" in a BTC bank because it's not like you will share the private key of your account with them or they will share it with you and you can check your BTC account from time to time. You will "buy" an IOU from the bank that says you can get 1 on 1 BTCs for it (like the current system). So we go back to the first point.

No, you're getting confused.  We already have rudimentary banks, in the form of online wallet services.  Imagine if one particular service, let's call it BitcoinPal, were to grow large enough that it had thousands of consumers & retail websites with accounts.  Whenever a consumer used his web portal or smartphone app to import the address of a member's retail website, the computer doing the action could recognize that address to belong to a member, and simply credit that member's account.  This would require group storage of bitcoins, like a bank does with cash, and thus there would be some currently unmet need that the bank can provide that is costly to an individual consumer.  Most likely this would be transaction fee reduction, as thousands of members could operate in this way (so long as the banking institution was trusted) and only produce a blockchain bound transaction. Such transactions are cheap now, but they are subject to market forces too.  When Bitcoin is seving as many transactions per second as Visa, we can't expect a transaction fee to still be a nickel.

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I still don't understand how a loans with interest system will work in a BTC based economy. Knowing that BTC can not be created by banks via "credit expansion" and that there is a limited number of them in existence, how will the interest be paid back? With what BTCs?


Ah, I see the block. You belive that successful banks would eventually own all the bitcoins, correct?  Well the free market doesn't work that way, those bitcoins, including the interest, is always in motion.  Banks pay employees, employees buy services, businesses pay their loans; and when they don't, loans default and banks lose both the principal and interest on that loan, and the interest on a couple others to balance out the loss of reserves.  Interest rates would naturally trend down toward a point that is close to the default rate plus the dispersion rate.  Very unlike our current system of fixed rates.
2048  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin major fail - doesn't allow credit creation (aka deflationary currency) on: November 11, 2012, 04:56:20 PM


What we have nowadays, though, is a bit different, right? Fiat currency isn't backed by gold and can be created at commercial banks by a magical process called credit creation (or "credit expansion"?): the bank puts a new loan into its books as an asset and at the same time increases the balance of the customers account who took the loan by the amount of the loan. New money has been created. The bank cannot do this indefinitely, though, it need some "other assets" to back up the loans. Is that correct? How exactly does this work?


A bit over simple, but yes.

Simple is good, as long as it allows to draw correct conclusions ;>.

What kind of assets are required for a bank to have as reserves for the credit creation?

In our current system?  Banks are supposed to keep a 1:9 reserve to lending ratio, in other words banks are permitted to lend out nine times as much as they have on their books.  However, this includes not only the CD's and savings account balances, but also the marked-to-market value of all the collateral used in all of the loans.  I.E. the resale value of the cars and homes themselves that the bank would 'repossess' should the borrower fail to honor the terms of the loans.  So the ratio of cash on deposit to debt outstanding can be much higher, and when Lehman Brothers failed their real reserve ratio was pushing 1:50.  Reserves can be anything with an established market value; gold, foreign currencies, even raw land.
2049  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin major fail - doesn't allow credit creation (aka deflationary currency) on: November 11, 2012, 08:10:47 AM


What we have nowadays, though, is a bit different, right? Fiat currency isn't backed by gold and can be created at commercial banks by a magical process called credit creation (or "credit expansion"?): the bank puts a new loan into its books as an asset and at the same time increases the balance of the customers account who took the loan by the amount of the loan. New money has been created. The bank cannot do this indefinitely, though, it need some "other assets" to back up the loans. Is that correct? How exactly does this work?


A bit over simple, but yes.
2050  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin major fail - doesn't allow credit creation (aka deflationary currency) on: November 11, 2012, 08:09:35 AM
...  so the others would accumulate the warehouse receipts of the offending bank until they had enough of them that it was unlikely that the bank would be able to honor them all at once, and start a run.  Thus running the offending banker out of business.

This is the part I don't understand. By "accumulate", I assume you mean "pay money for", and I assume the result of starting a run is that the value of the warehouse receipts goes to 0. So, the tactic was: pay for a whole bunch of warehouse receipts and then make them worthless, right?


No, because the banker starting the run rumors would be first in line.  It's the depositors who heard of it late that end up screwed, and angry.  It's never the bankers you see in a mob.
2051  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin major fail - doesn't allow credit creation (aka deflationary currency) on: November 11, 2012, 07:00:30 AM
The point someone else brought up, namely the risk of bank runs due to the lack of a lender of last resort is still valid, though.


Yes, that is still valid, and it was exactly how the 'wild' banks in Hong Kong would keep each other honest right up until the start of WWII.  If one of the banks took things too far, the other bank owners would get wind of it, and start to amass their "notes" (if they printed any, which they did in Hong Kong, usually on recycled newspaper) and if they thought that they had enough, might start a rumor of a bank run, and actually send agents with mass numbers of notes to demand gold in person.  This is what maintained the honor among thieves in the past, and it could do so again under a free market version of bitcoin dominated fractional reserve banking.

I'm skeptical about this story. You are saying that banks would loan money to their competitor and then start a bank run to cause the bank to fail? That seems like a losing strategy. Not only do they lose their own money, but the customers that they would get from one less competitor would  lose their money, too.

No, the banks of Hong Kong issued warehouse receipt notes for gold, and these traded on par with each other based up the claim of gold weight printed upon them.  All of the banks issued more such warehouse receipts than they had gold to cover at any one time, and all of the other bankers knew it as well.  If one was taking things too far, he would also be driving down the interest rates; thus the profits of the other banks.  so the others would accumulate the warehouse receipts of the offending bank until they had enough of them that it was unlikely that the bank would be able to honor them all at once, and start a run.  Thus running the offending banker out of business.  It was called "wildcat" banking when it was the norm in the US from 1860 or so to 1890.  It was also known as the "Free Banking Era".

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Anyway, lender of last resort apparently doesn't do a very good job of preventing bank runs. The Federal Reserve was a lender of last resort during the depression and there were plenty of bank runs. Deposit insurance (FDIC) was created to prevent bank runs. An interesting thing to note is that deposit insurance promotes risky lending by banks, making it more important to have a lender of last resort to bail out the bank.

Deposit insurance is an illusion anyway, but yes, it does contribute to a circular justification.
2052  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin major fail - doesn't allow credit creation (aka deflationary currency) on: November 10, 2012, 11:36:23 PM
The point someone else brought up, namely the risk of bank runs due to the lack of a lender of last resort is still valid, though.


Yes, that is still valid, and it was exactly how the 'wild' banks in Hong Kong would keep each other honest right up until the start of WWII.  If one of the banks took things too far, the other bank owners would get wind of it, and start to amass their "notes" (if they printed any, which they did in Hong Kong, usually on recycled newspaper) and if they thought that they had enough, might start a rumor of a bank run, and actually send agents with mass numbers of notes to demand gold in person.  This is what maintained the honor among thieves in the past, and it could do so again under a free market version of bitcoin dominated fractional reserve banking.
2053  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin major fail - doesn't allow credit creation (aka deflationary currency) on: November 10, 2012, 11:30:27 PM
Again: I'm not saying it's impossible: I'm just saying I don't see any chain of developments that would make it happen.


Ah, ther is the rub.  You don't see it.  I most certainly do.  Investment banking is different than what you are used to.  That said, what if WalMart or Amazon started a bitcoin fractional bank?  Certaily some would distrust either of them, others would respect the honestly.

Hm, I might've caught a glimpse of what you see. Can you explain in a little more detail how that Amazon fractional bank would operate to help me get a clearer picture?


Danny did a fine job on that front.  The question then becomes, how strong of an institution would you consider Amazon to be?  How conservative their lending practices?  The root problem with central banking isn't fractional reserve lending practices per se, but the small amount of reserve the banks are obligated to maintain, since central banking isn't a free market and pretends to insure itself.  When the banking system is ultimately supported by taxpayers, in the form of cheap insurance, they tend to push the rational limits of the 'fractional' part, favoring profit over risk.  An independent banking system, subject to the forces of the free market, might still operate in a fractional manner but not nearly to the same degree due to the risks involved.
2054  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin major fail - doesn't allow credit creation (aka deflationary currency) on: November 10, 2012, 07:16:16 PM

I don't think so, because: BTC Banks cannot borrow Bitcoin from a central bank to buy more time.

True, no last lender means they have a bankrun risk, so that they should treat each loan much more carefully. This is by design

Exactly. If loans can still theoretically be made and fractional reserve banking and interest can still be part of the loaning process, the fact that there is no last lender and the fact that it is a well know fact that there is a known total maximum amount of coins make banks run risks very high.


It makes them higher than what you're used to, that does not make such risk "high".  A bitcoin bank that fractionally loans out twice as much as it keeps in reserves can crediblely do so, so long as it's open and up front abou it's methods and long term CD's are it's primary method of raising capital (or some other not-on-demand deposit system).

Except that the bank can't lend out bitcoins, but only something that can be redeemed for bitcoins. Would you accept a piece of paper that says: "can be redeemed for 1 Bitcoin at the first international bank of bitcoin at any time" instead of 1 Bitcoin?

I wouldn't.

The circumstance that made fractional reserve banking possible historically was the fact that such "receipt money" was already being used for other reasons (gold too hard to store, carry around, cumbersome to transact, divide up)

With bitcoin, how would this happen? Transaction, storage cost and ease of handling of the "base metal" (bitcoin) is already very low and its divisibility high.

Does anyone feel the urge or need to bring his bitcoins to the goldsmith for safekeeping?

Again: I'm not saying it's impossible: I'm just saying I don't see any chain of developments that would make it happen.


Ah, ther is the rub.  You don't see it.  I most certainly do.  Investment banking is different than what you are used to.  That said, what if WalMart or Amazon started a bitcoin fractional bank?  Certaily some would distrust either of them, others would respect the honestly.
2055  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin major fail - doesn't allow credit creation (aka deflationary currency) on: November 10, 2012, 06:50:41 PM

I don't think so, because: BTC Banks cannot borrow Bitcoin from a central bank to buy more time.

True, no last lender means they have a bankrun risk, so that they should treat each loan much more carefully. This is by design

Exactly. If loans can still theoretically be made and fractional reserve banking and interest can still be part of the loaning process, the fact that there is no last lender and the fact that it is a well know fact that there is a known total maximum amount of coins make banks run risks very high.


It makes them higher than what you're used to, that does not make such risk "high".  A bitcoin bank that fractionally loans out twice as much as it keeps in reserves can crediblely do so, so long as it's open and up front abou it's methods and long term CD's are it's primary method of raising capital (or some other not-on-demand deposit system).

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I still have a question on loans as a way of generating credit. Will there be an interest in BTC loans?
Almost certainly.  There have always been interest in investment loans.

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I know interest can be regarded as a measure of risk and as a measure of inflation protection. With a deflationary currency, how would interest be calculated? I.e. - this project has low risk of 4% and BTC appreciates on average 5% per year ... therefore your loan interest will be -1%?!

You're guessing, and poorly.  Keep thinking and you might get there on your own.
2056  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: ISP shut down my Intenet! on: November 08, 2012, 11:14:24 PM

Ok I have 2 computers with 5 miners (cards).  I use Deepbit and GUI miner (used to use POCLBM but switched recently).  For the last while I have been running only one computer which has 2 miners.  My question to you is: does the mining software take a lot of bandwidth?  I can't imagine it being more bandwidth than downloading a torrent.


Only while trying to download the blockchain, like any other client.  Ongoing, not so much, no.

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 Also, will porting through the TOR network really hide the packets from my ISP?

If set up correctly, yes.
2057  Other / Off-topic / Re: a stupid bitcoin joke ... lol on: November 08, 2012, 11:05:04 PM
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how many bitcoins does it cost to bang a hooker?
For me it cost 4.58 BTC or slightly less. For such payment I can get reasonably good looking prostitute that is not diseased. BTC > Cash > ATM withdraw > Girl.

If someone sends me 5 BTC for this purpose I even might post a video of the purchase here lol. If she agrees to video camera. It would be similar to 10 000 Pizza. I know that in black market there was prostitutes available for BTC but the service cost much more.

Wait, seriously? An low-end hooker is only about $50?  Where do you live?
2058  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: ISP shut down my Intenet! on: November 08, 2012, 11:01:26 PM
Ok so I just got off the phone with my ISP.  They have been detecting a "virus" and have shut down my connection because they FEEL like I am infecting other people.  Of course, what they are seeing is the IRC P2P activity from my miners.  I told them it is not a virus and they refuse to accept my explanation.  I told them I would turn off the program if they would just give my internet back (temporary fix).

My question to you guys is, what should I do now?  Is there a way around my snooping ISP?  I feel like I have two options right now, 1. Stop mining.  2. Change ISPs.  Also I have been mining on and off for more than a year now. 

Hoping some people can help me out here. 

Has anyone else experienced anything like this?

This kind of thing has come up before, and in every case that I can recall, it turned out that the ISP wasn't really combating viri but trying to clamp down on Bittorrent or some other P2P tech that takes a lot of bandwidth.  They can't really say it that way, though.  Why would your miners be consuming a lot of bandwidth?  You should only have one that is 'net facing while the rest just connect to each other and that one.  If nothing else, you can port that one's connection over Tor, although that will slow things down.  A ssh tunnel to an off-isp-network shell account would work well.
2059  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Introduce yourself :) on: November 08, 2012, 10:41:19 PM
I came here to learn about mining! I find it very interessting. Hope to learn something from u guys!

There is at least two other forum members that use that exact avatar photo.
2060  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Rand Paul 2016 on: November 08, 2012, 10:37:47 PM

Wow, you read a politician's website and actually assume it accurate?

Ontheissues.org looks at voting record and public statements. So, the extent to which it is inaccurate, is the extent to which he has lied to the public.

A statement that applies to every other elected official, everywhere.  How do you know a politian is lying, again?
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