4 hour crossovers have become very unreliable lately. Back in the gox days, a 4 hour crossover was the holy grail. Nowadays, anything can happen, it could be a trap, or simply go down with no regard for the crossover at all. I prefer to just wait for the 1 day MACD - much more reliable.

Does the train make a beeping sound when it backs up?

Buy silver and you can actually hold coins with pictures of trains on them.

GTA2:  killlllll frenzy!

You're stuck in the mode of thinking of bitcoin from the single use case of a speculator buying bitcoins as an investment, like gold. Bitcoin is much more than this - it is a technology with many uses. You need to get past this and think of how bitcoin will be used in the future once it's big and has serious adoption.

The future of bitcoin is not supposed to be merely as a speculation or an investment. It is supposed to also be a payment gateway, store of value, and a form of programmable money, used by large enterprises.  When it comes to business and accounting, stability is in demand and very important for the books, especially when it comes to things like contracts and lending. The special features of bitcoin are the reason why bitcoin would be used, and not because the value of a bitcoin might go up. The change in value might not neccessarily be desired, especially if it creates an unfair advantage for a party in a transaction or messed up accounting books.

Perhaps more importantly, another point is that the price isn't limited to just going up - it can go DOWN also. Just because it has historically gone up for 4 years (which is not really that long), doesn't mean it's guaranteed to do that for the rest of eternity, or even over the next year. World-related and bitcoin-related events can change the trend at any time, and even the current price history is littered with 50-80% crashes and that horrible 2011 crash. You as a bull might have confidence that the value will be restored and that the trend will last forever, and will be willing to wait. However, this is completely unacceptable to a business and that is not how they want a currency to function - it makes it very unusable for them.

Bulls are equally or even more obnoxious during a rally with quotes like "haha look at all the idiot bears" and "nothing like the smell of burnt bear and the sound of bear tears in the morning", etc.

Just the hype I was looking for to create another selling opportunity.

Whoa 8 blocks in 25 minutes.

We are approaching the event where the last technical analysts and investors attempt to front-run the next cycle and get in on the next rally.

What happens when there are no front runners left, and it becomes apparent that there is in-fact no new rally cycle starting?

$100 may not happen even in a 2011-like scenario.

How did I know some ridiculous bulls were going to blurt out "btc will skyrocket"?  

no...

Guys you are seeing the effects of the economic collapse on bitcoin already - we are in the early stages of the economic collapse, and, it is going down.

Just because btc theoretically could be used as everyone's store of value, doesn't mean it WILL. It is not big enough yet, and right now people are going to store wealth into something more historically reliable. When a crisis happens, people panic and revert back into a very oldschool state of mind. Speculative financial investments and new hightech paradigms are out. Gold, land, food, and survival gear are in.

For someone to use bitcoin as the store of value, they must first trust that it'll hold value and not collapse with the rest of the economy. With only a 4 year history there is no way to trust that this will be true, and it hasn't been tested in that type of crisis yet.

Most of btc's trading is in USD (CNY trading is mostly fake), and more importantly, most btc business/enterprise/innovation is based in the U.S., so if the U.S. or the U.S.D. collapses, it is a good case to cripple bitcoin. Bitcoin's price is held up mostly by two things, and neither of these are it being used as a store of value (like gold). It is mostly:
A) Speculator buy-ins to ride price trends.
B) The underlying businesses/ecnonomy that bitcoin is used for.
Both of these will likely suffer due to an economic collapse, and most of the support for bitcoin will be lost. This will likely outweigh those trying to use bitcoin as a store of value.

Instead of a pressure to get into bitcoin, what we have has a pressure to get OUT of bitcoin, and a reduced demand. Sure, there may be more dollars, which should theoretically raise the btc/usd ratio. The problem is, that people need ALL of these dollars. This is due to:
A) The very same inflation we're talking about
B) Needing to do extra emergency spending due to the crisis, including

1. Food/Water
2. Shelter
3. Land
4. Guns
5. Precious metals
6. Extra spending just to have fun before the apocalypse and enjoy the dollars while they still have value.
7. Arrangements to relocate to foreign countries

I have a banker freind who I mentioned bitcoin to. His first reaction to me was "you have 45 days to sell and get out". I was shocked and confused by the response. He then discussed with me the impending ecnomic collapse. This was 30 days ago...



If anyone is wonder why my sentiments have been annoyingly bearish over the past month, it is not just because of charts and squiggly lines.

Here's a little disclosure: Nearly all of my posts in /Speculation are just that: speculations. They are probabilities, not certainties. So stop being so dramatic.

I have my trading funds split into 3 groups. One is for the 4h, one is for the 1d, and one is for the 3d.   With the 1w I start using leverage.

I've given the details already. The technicals of this subcycle have diverged from the technicals of the previous subcycles, so it more likely to continue diverging from them than to follow them and start another rally. If the 1 week emas go down then there will likely be a long sideways/down period. I didn't necessarily say anything about an apocalypse. Unlike other posters here shouting about $100 etc, I haven't given a specific downside target. I simply acknowledge that it will not be a very profitable time to trade or invest. Holding funds on an exchange to trade with for an entire year would certainly be too risky. It would be much less risky and more profitable to withdraw the funds into other markets and investments where they grow exponentially (or at least don't disappear), and then can be put back into the bitcoin markets when ready (and probably at a lower price than where I sold). FYI I am not committed to this path yet.

If 1W emas cross down, then I will probably move all of my trading funds off of exchanges and then use CoinBase if I ever decide to buy them back in the future. However, I will still keep my committed long term allocation of btc, I might still trade an altcoin here and there,  and I might actually focus on writing code and developing services with bitcoin rather than trading. So you'd see me in Bitcoin Discussion rather than Speculation.

In this discussions about the capitulation cycles, you have to realize that we are no longer talking about the typical 9 month subcycle - this cycle is breaking, which became apparent last week. We are now talking about the 2-3 year supercycle.

If the 1W EMAs break and it goes goes sideways/down for a year, speculators will feel like "it's the end of bitcoin" because it's the end of bitcoin for THEM and they'll probably be leaving but it's not necessarily the end of bitcoin itself and the price may end up restoring current levels in a year from now, and a brand new group of speculators will join in for the ride.



Here's a really simple view of why there is support at $540 right now. 1W ema is a historically strong support.  That's until there is a downcross - then bitcoin is a whole different ball game.

What is this "resistance"?

When it is buying, it is called "support", not "resistance". "resistance" is selling.

There seem to be two potential topics for this thread.
1. Mining's effect on the price
2. Mining's viability as a business

I can't tell which one is the topic here, and the OP seems only to address #2. The post is incoherent. Why is there swearing and emotions?