rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[aminorex]

who can use a daily currency that is taxed for capital gains on every spend.

That question makes no sense to me as a U.S. tax payer.  Given a choice between holding my spending money in a form which loses value costs me much more than does holding it in a form which gains value, regardless of whether the gains are taxed.

1. The hassle of recording and paying tax for numerous daily tidbit transactions is far outweighed by the insignificant value loss of holding $500 in your checking account (exhibit my prior post that average Dogecoin holding is claimed to be $430 per user).

There is no hassle, because it is trivial to automate.  A pretty large set of users just don't file tax returns, and could not care in the least.  Another large set have people who do that for them.  The remainder generally have an app for that.

Bitcoin has enormous usability problems for quotidian consumer applications.  I am acutely aware of this.  But capital gains tax is not one of them.

[AnonyMint]

Again you misjudge the masses, because you are not one. You can't put yourself in their mindset and priority set. I can.

who can use a daily currency that is taxed for capital gains on every spend.

That question makes no sense to me as a U.S. tax payer.  Given a choice between holding my spending money in a form which loses value costs me much more than does holding it in a form which gains value, regardless of whether the gains are taxed.

1. The hassle of recording and paying tax for numerous daily tidbit transactions is far outweighed by the insignificant value loss of holding $500 in your checking account (exhibit my prior post that average Dogecoin holding is claimed to be $430 per user).

There is no hassle, because it is trivial to automate.

In theory yes, but in practice no. I detect you don't have real world experience doing technical support for a software company. I do.

You don't have every user using the same application and tax regime. Some tax regimes are not even efile yet.

And users will avoid something with no advantages which carries the stigma of needing to pay a tax. If they are using it as a currency, they aren't paying attention to gains, and see the tax only as a burden and risk (what if they automation fails, they lose their backup copy, then can't comply with the tax filing!)

Eventually you could get there, but long before that the government will have taken over the exchanges, the pools, and the coin. Or simply offered a digital fiat which doesn't have Bitcoin's problems.

And btw, what is the advantage for the average person to use Bitcoin and go through this hassle to set up this software? None that I can see.

My gosh you missed the main point. The masses like fiat! They don't require that the digital currency of the world needs to not be a fiat.

And you did not address the point that the masses don't like the properties of Bitcoin:

• Mixes traceable illegal activity with their funds
• No protection against theft
• No refundable protection
• No consumer protection
• Very volatile price
• Must convert to and from fiat which is a hassle
• Very slow transactions, and confusing
• No government guaranteed deposit insurance
• Can't obtain a loan or credit card in bitcoins
• There is no cash version to use offline.

Fiat doesn't have those weaknesses. Fiat has other weaknesses which we are concerned about, but the masses don't care about those weaknesses that bother us. Later the masses will fall into the abyss, then some of them will learn to appreciate our ideals but most of them won't learn.

A pretty large set of users just don't file tax returns, and could not care in the least.

For those in the 3rd world, they use cash and the vendors they buy from will not be accepting Bitcoin any time soon. Simply worse for them in every way.

There is nothing they can gain from being banked with Bitcoin that they couldn't get with cash.

Even money transfer using Bitcoin is stupid, since they need to convert to cash any way.

For those minority who don't (a super majority does) file taxes in the developed countries, I still don't see what is the reason for them to use Bitcoin?

Most in USA file a tax return to get their payroll deductions refund, or their Child Tax credit, etc.. I don't know about Europe?

Another large set have people who do that for them.  The remainder generally have an app for that.

For example, localbitcoins doesn't have an app for that.  They would need to customize the app for every tax regime too.

Bitcoin has enormous usability problems for quotidian consumer applications.  I am acutely aware of this.  But capital gains tax is not one of them.

Capital gains is one of them as this scales away from investors to consumers.

Indeed there are many other problems that make Bitcoin impractical. The argument is always offchain services, but those are a problem too or bring us right back to fiat.

I just don't see the big idealistic win. If you are just hoping to help the government create a digital fiat, and get rich on that investment, I doubt it will work out, because of the $223 trillion debt the government is going to confiscate all the wealth it can find. And remember Bitcoin isn't anonymous so you can't reliably hide in it.

P.S. if the quality of my prose is declining, it is because I've been awake for 20 hours and forehead is ready to meet keyboard.

[rpietila]

Adoption is now about .00002% of global humans.  Upper bound is about 70%.  Adoption is about 0.000008% of global liquidity and reserves.  Upper bound is about 80%.

Just want to point out that 1,500,000 / 7,300,000,000 = .0002 = 0.02%.

2000k/2000kk=0.001%

2000k/2000kk= 0.001 = 0.1%

Quick and dirty guide to using the percent sign "%":

100% = 1

Given a choice between holding my spending money in a form which loses value costs me much more than does holding it in a form which gains value, regardless of whether the gains are taxed.

+1

because of the $223 trillion debt the government is going to confiscate all the wealth it can find. And remember Bitcoin isn't anonymous so you

Why are you touting the debt as if it made some kind of justification for enslavement?

- (fiat) Money is debt. They never gave us anything valuable when we borrowed from them. The new money was just created at the moment of loan, and was deducted as inflation from everyone else. They did not give us gold, land, or real goods. We supplied them to them all the time. It is important for people to realize that this debt is a mirage, people are free, and they have received nothing that they should rightfully pay back, quite the contrary.
- In the past centuries enslavement was typically done by physical force, and all land was confiscated, gold was plundered etc. They even now have the largest army with most military bases, and actively seek conflict all over the world to sway everyone, especially the ones who are not indebted to them via fiat money system. NB: This is not directed against the second most hapless people in the world, the Americans (the first one  are the Finnish), both are tools, useful idiots, and chattel in their usage.

I have heard you bragging that you would rather die before giving them your hard earned silver? What makes you now so eager to file tax returns and claim the end of bitcoin because filing tax returns becomes so difficult? Can you only be enslaved by trickery and not by force? Can you see why it amuses me?

[AnonyMint]

Given a choice between holding my spending money in a form which loses value costs me much more than does holding it in a form which gains value, regardless of whether the gains are taxed.

+1

Again I pointed out that this is not applicable to the masses.

Besides, by the time you can get the masses to adopt anything it will be owned by the government through regulation.

There is no way to get the masses to help you the millionaires. You are trapped. I am trying to help you, but you are obstinate (because you are not a polymath). And thus deserve your fate.

because of the $223 trillion debt the government is going to confiscate all the wealth it can find. And remember Bitcoin isn't anonymous so you

Why are you touting the debt as if it made some kind of justification for enslavement?

Since you are a Christian, I will explain from that perspective (I could also explain from an atheist perspective too).

Huh, your Bible in Proverbs says "borrower is slave to the lender".

Do you really think the masses can run up this huge debt which enabled them to abandon God and run abortions to 40 million a year, birth control to pervasive from age 15, and for women to no longer need men because they are supported by the state, and for there to be no enslavement?

I suggest you (re-)read carefully 1 Samuel 8 then 1 Samuel 15.

- (fiat) Money is debt. They never gave us anything valuable when we borrowed from them. The new money was just created at the moment of loan, and was deducted as inflation from everyone else. They did not give us gold, land, or real goods. We supplied them to them all the time. It is important for people to realize that this debt is a mirage, people are free, and they have received nothing that they should rightfully pay back, quite the contrary.

Simpleton mistake. Complete failure to understand economics of fitness, c.f. this post:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg5837161#msg5837161

I have heard you bragging that you would rather die before giving them your hard earned silver? What makes you now so eager to file tax returns and claim the end of bitcoin because filing tax returns becomes so difficult? Can you only be enslaved by trickery and not by force? Can you see why it amuses me?

I am talking about what the masses will do.

If you want something only for us, then Bitcoin has the wrong design and can't protect our anonymity.

If you want to fight in the open, then you need the masses on your side. And the masses always go to the side of the banksters and the leaders of the power vacuum of democracy.

Again read 1 Samuel 8, so you can understand.

[creekbore]

Oh God! (sic)  -- the Quality TA thread is reduced to quoting scripture to show the time of BTC is not upon us.

[BldSwtTrs]

I was assuming 2 million users now and target penetration of 2 billion users => 0.1%.

It is true that most of the 2 million are not really "using" bitcoin now, so we cannot yet directly observe how world-changing Bitcoin is. This "land-grab phase" is designed to take us there.

Why only 2 billions?

Some estimations say by 2020 there will be 4 to 5 billions Internet users:
http://www.neowin.net/news/microsoft-internet-users-will-double-to-4-billion-worldwide-by-2020
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/04/15/tech/web/eric-schmidt-internet

[AnonyMint]

Oh God! (sic)  -- the Quality TA thread is reduced to quoting scripture to show the time of BTC is not upon us.

The time of BTC is upon us if we accept that the masses will use it if offchain regulated businesses provide fixes to all the useability problems with Bitcoin onchain (e.g. 10 - 60 minute transactions, private keys stolen, etc).

But then we give up decentralization and have a global fiat- the antithesis of the idealism purported to be the reason we are investing.

And if we are investing simply to get rich, note that if the regulators can track everything, this is no solution to the coming massive confisations 2016ish as we descend into the global economic conflagrapocalpyse.

Oh I know you don't care as long as you can make a speculative buck in the meantime, who cares if it is all going to be taken from you in a couple of years any way.

Hamster much.  

P.S. I know there are other possible outcomes. The global debt could just disappear. You could hide your gold deep in the forests of Finland. And all other such illogical fantasies.

[threecats]

Huh, your Bible in Proverbs says "borrower is slave to the lender".

Do you really think the masses can run up this huge debt which enabled them to abandon God and run abortions to 40 million a year, birth control to pervasive from age 15, and for women to no longer need men because they are supported by the state, and for there to be no enslavement?

I suggest you (re-)read carefully 1 Samuel 8 then 1 Samuel 15.

Dude why don't you keep your religious moralism to yourself. It does not belong in this forum. That is the problem with all religions on this poor small planet, they keep trying to takeover the public square.

[znaky]

It seesm everybody and their sister is looking to buy at that $400 level. I suspect that final capitulation may be closer to $200-250 but I know nobody wants to hear that.

Why do you see a lot of buyers at $400 as a sign that the final capitulation will be < $400?

[MatTheCat]

It seesm everybody and their sister is looking to buy at that $400 level. I suspect that final capitulation may be closer to $200-250 but I know nobody wants to hear that.

Why do you see a lot of buyers at $400 as a sign that the final capitulation will be < $400?

Because everyone has $400 range as their dream price, not many are willing to invest at prices above this, therefore prices slowly grind down to $400 range, everyone gets their buy-ins and there is a little price hike as a few panic buyers also join the market. However, now we are back up in upper $400 lower $500, and nobody is willing to buy and hold Bitcoins at these prices. Those that got in lowest start to take profits, the price subsides. Those who got in at higher prices sell to avoid becoming bag holders, the price subsides further and before you know it we are back down at everyone's dream lower $400 range but in the midst of low volume market apathy. Things can only go one way after that.

[cAPSLOCK]

Dude why don't you keep your religious moralism to yourself.

I usually just lurk as not to muck up rptilas thread, but this is too low hanging not to pick on.

1.  Anonymint took no religious position when he made his argument.  He was using religion to appeal to his audience.  You missed this completely.

2.  The answer to your above question is because he has as much right to express himself the way he wishes as you do.

In other words:

Why don't you keep your a-religious moralism (sic) to yourself?

[threecats]

Dude why don't you keep your religious moralism to yourself.

I usually just lurk as not to muck up rptilas thread, but this is too low hanging not to pick on.

1.  Anonymint took no religious position when he made his argument.  He was using religion to appeal to his audience.  You missed this completely.

2.  The answer to your above question is because he has as much right to express himself the way he wishes as you do.

In other words:

Why don't you keep your a-religious moralism (sic) to yourself?

not a-religious at all.  i took no agnostic or atheist point of view.

he certainly has the right to drag the bible and abortions and misogyny into this discussion. and i will continue to exercise my right to resist that islamists and the christians and every other breed of book thumpers take over the public square.  religion is incendiary to all not wearing the favored clothing, which is why the enlightenment made such great strides in agreeing that it belonged in the private sphere, not the public. that, cAPSLOCK (sic) is not moralism. or a-moralism. or whatever low hanging fruit you are after.

[Pruden]

It seesm everybody and their sister is looking to buy at that $400 level. I suspect that final capitulation may be closer to $200-250 but I know nobody wants to hear that.

Last summer many people like you said the price was sure to revisit 32$. Even I said somewhere else that the only way to be sure to pick the bottom was to wait for 50$ or less. When the capitulation to 67 began, I consciously made the effort to distract myself from charts expecting lower lows. Fortunately I hedl, because we know how that turned out.

I now know this feeling. It's the despair at the bottom. Just like these days, when there are no bad news.

If 21/10 weekly emas cross down... well, that is quite another story.

[aminorex]

It's very easy - I have often done it myself - to get so caught up into advocating one's position that one fails to see the incoherencies in ones own case.  An old saying is apposite:  There are none so blind as those who will not see.  

When you are making a case to a broad audience as well as to a correspondent -- as is typical in a forum post -- your case is not well served if you refuse to see what all the other readers can easily see.  Denial is not an effective strategy, either logically or rhetorically.  

 

[Syke]

I've asked Bitcoin developers why the BTC fees are so high for small transactions. I know some of you will want to argue about this but you might as well admit the truth: Sending big amounts of BTC is cheap, sending small amounts is expensive. It just does not work for micropayments.

How else can you send money internationally quickly for only a nickel?

That said, you are right, Bitcoin is not well suited to micropayments. There's no point in trying to make Bitcoin work for every conceivable use case. There are plenty of other use cases where Bitcoin is unbeatable. That's where future massive adoption is going to come from. Micropayments will best be suited to some off-chain and/or altcoin implementation.

[TERA]

In this discussions about the capitulation cycles, you have to realize that we are no longer talking about the typical 9 month subcycle - this cycle is breaking, which became apparent last week. We are now talking about the 2-3 year supercycle.

[windjc]

In this discussions about the capitulation cycles, you have to realize that we are no longer talking about the typical 9 month subcycle - this cycle is breaking, which became apparent last week. We are now talking about the 2-3 year supercycle.

You really are leaving us.

Care to go into a more detailed description of our pending bitcoin apocalypse?

[eiskalt]

On the weekly chart:

If bitcoin does not reach at least 750$ within around 2 weeks, SMA 7 will cross SMA 30.

[TERA]

In this discussions about the capitulation cycles, you have to realize that we are no longer talking about the typical 9 month subcycle - this cycle is breaking, which became apparent last week. We are now talking about the 2-3 year supercycle.

You really are leaving us.

Care to go into a more detailed description of our pending bitcoin apocalypse?

I've given the details already. The technicals of this subcycle have diverged from the technicals of the previous subcycles, so it more likely to continue diverging from them than to follow them and start another rally. If the 1 week emas go down then there will likely be a long sideways/down period. I didn't necessarily say anything about an apocalypse. Unlike other posters here shouting about $100 etc, I haven't given a specific downside target. I simply acknowledge that it will not be a very profitable time to trade or invest. Holding funds on an exchange to trade with for an entire year would certainly be too risky. It would be much less risky and more profitable to withdraw the funds into other markets and investments where they grow exponentially (or at least don't disappear), and then can be put back into the bitcoin markets when ready (and probably at a lower price than where I sold). FYI I am not committed to this path yet.

[molecular]

Oh God! (sic)  -- the Quality TA thread is reduced to quoting scripture to show the time of BTC is not upon us.

lol. well-put.