The missing coins are probably stolen (not lost), but the question is by whom:
Karpeles and friends, or hackers that exploited some vulnerability of Swiss-cheese MtGox servers?

HODLing may become more difficult after we'll see some whales panic selling. 

The projection where you wrote: This is legit TA. $250,000 by September confirmed. I suppose it was sarcasm...

But no, the market will now enter the last leg of wave C. In 2011, it dropped from 12$ to 2$, but now it's not that bearish.
Based on interpolation with 2011, my calculation results in a bottom of wave C in the ballpark of 120$.

It just means that TERA is not in a time zone where the eclipse was observable, neither am I. The 'rally' is just a normal rebound, has nothing to do with the eclipse.

At this stage of the market, in August 2011, there was a rebound from about 6$ to 12$, so 100%, not just 50% like now.
Two months later (October 2011) it still dropped down to 2$. Let's wait and see where the price will be two months from now.

I see a problem with these guesstimates. A bottom of around 300$ is not really bearish.
And from 300$ within 6 months it's quite possible to go over 1000$.
The really bearish scenario is with a bottom below 200$, then it's going to be difficult to reach above 1000$ in 2014.

A bit of clarification needed:
1. unlikely to happen soon.
2. possible selfish miner attack, can be mitigated.
3. unlikely to happen soon.
4. possible in China.
5. quite possible after this rebound runs out of steam.
6. which economy, whole one or just the bitcoin economy (drugs, money laundering, capital control evasion)?

Since the 18th March there seems to be a significant increase in orphan blocks and possibly in transaction times.
Could this be a sign of a 'selfish miner' attack?

Article about an update to the heartbleed vulnerability:
http://arstechnica.com/security/2014/04/private-crypto-keys-are-accessible-to-heartbleed-hackers-new-data-shows/

What 'Bitcoin Curse'? It's a bear market, what we're experiencing is normal.

Of course not. It may be the local bottom of the second leg (if it got truncated) of wave C, but the third leg (and most powerful) is yet to come.
Just look at the volume, it's not even close to what a final bottom should look like. And the ask sum on Bitstamp is too small for the final bottom.
When the piglets will squeal 'Bitcoin is dead!', 'it's going to zero!', then you'll know that the final bottom is near.  

The '400$ bottom' myth is about to get busted. 

The IRS ruling on bitcoin may cause the drop of money laundering charges towards DPR:
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/irs-ruling-to-help-silk-road-creator-in-court/2014/04/02

You have a point. That might prevent this bubble from fully deflating, just like MtGox did in May - July 2013.

'Sentiment incredibly bearish'? Come on... Sentiment is bearish, and this is normal in a bear market.
It's more bearish than I previously thought, so it seems that this bear market is going to resemble more 2011 than 2013.
But my EW count says that the market is still far from the very bottom. If 400$ will break during the next days and
there will be a rebound from that local bottom, only after that will the 'incredibly bearish' sentiment kick in.
Quoting from Wikipedia: Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched.

That's bad news for those with goxcoins. It means that the unknown % reimbursement will take a long time.
Gox could give back some coins at the very bottom of the bear market. That would be double-goxxing...

MtGox claimed that they work with the Japanese police: https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20140326-investigation.pdf
If the paper in the OT is right and the Japanese police would read it / confirm it, then IMO the most likely explanation
for the still missing bitcoins is an inside job (by Karpeles or MtGox staff with access to the bitcoins).

U.S. intel assessment: greater likelihood Russia will enter eastern Ukraine

By Barbara Starr

A new classified intelligence assessment concludes it is more likely than previously thought that Russian forces will enter eastern Ukraine, CNN has learned.

Two administration officials described the assessment but declined to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the information.

The officials emphasized that nothing is certain, but there have been several worrying signs in the past three to four days.

“This has shifted our thinking that the likelihood of a further Russian incursion is more probable than it was previously thought to be,” one official said.


The buildup is seen to be reminiscent of Moscow’s military moves before it went into Chechnya and Georgia in both numbers of units and their capabilities.

U.S. military and intelligence officials have briefed Congress on the assessment.

As a result, Republican members of the House Armed Services Committee late Wednesday sent a classified letter to the White House expressing concern about unfolding developments.

An unclassified version obtained by CNN said committee members feel “urgency and alarm, based on new information in the committee’s possession.”

The committee said there was “deep apprehension that Moscow may invade eastern and southern Ukraine, pressing west to Transdniestria and also seek land grabs in the Baltics.”

Transdniestria is a separatist region of Moldova.

Committee members noted that Gen. Philip Breedlove, head of the U.S. European Command and NATO military chief, noted the Russians had sufficient forces to make moves into those areas.

American officials believe the more than 30,000 Russian forces on the border with Ukraine, combined with additional Russian forces placed on alert and mobilized to move, give Russian President Vladimir Putin the ability to rapidly move into Ukraine without the United States being able to predict it when it happens.

The assessment makes several new points including:

Troops on Russia’s border with eastern Ukraine – which exceed 30,000 - are “significantly more” than what is needed for the “exercises” Russia says it has been conducting, and there is no sign the forces are making any move to return to their home bases.

The troops on the border with Ukraine include large numbers of
“motorized” units that can quickly move. Additional special forces, airborne troops, air transport and other units that would be needed appear to be at a higher state of mobilization in other locations in Russia.

There is additional intelligence that even more Russian forces are “reinforcing” the border region, according to both officials. All of the troops are positioned for potential military action.

Russian troops already on the border region include air defense artillery and wheeled vehicles.

The United States believes that Russia might decide to go into eastern Ukraine to establish a land bridge into Crimea.

The belief is that Russian forces would move toward three Ukrainian cities: Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk in order to establish land access into Crimea. Russian forces are currently positioned in and around Rostov, Kursk, and Belgorod, according to U.S. intelligence information.

From cryptocoinsnews: http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/03/27/malleability-bankrupt-mt-gox/

Quoting:

The transaction malleability problem is real and should be considered when implementing Bitcoin clients.

However, while MtGox claimed to have lost 850,000 bitcoins due to malleability attacks, we merely observed a total of 302,000 bitcoins ever being involved in malleability attacks. Of these, only 1,811 bitcoins were in attacks before MtGox stopped users from withdrawing bitcoins. Even more, 78.64% of these attacks were ineffective. As such, barely 386 bitcoins could have been stolen using malleability attacks from MtGox or from other businesses. Even if all of these attacks were targeted against MtGox, MtGox needs to explain the whereabouts of 849,600 bitcoins.

Assuming MtGox had disabled withdrawals like they stated in the first press release, these attacks can not have been aimed at MtGox. The attacks therefore where either attempts to investigate transaction malleability or they were aimed at other businesses attempting to imitate the purveyed attack for personal gain. The sheer amount of bitcoins involved in malleability attacks would suggest that the latter motive was prevalent.

It remains questionable whether other services have been informed by MtGox in time to brace for the sudden increase in malleability attacks. Should this not be the case then the press release may have harmed other businesses by triggering imitators to attack them.

OP, you made a poll that doesn't show results? For the next week I'd vote 600$ - 700$.
IMO there are 2 scenarios: a slow uptrend to 700$, followed by a major drop, or a relatively stable price also followed by a major drop.