Goxing is now a contagion... Which one will be next?

OP, several of your poll choices are odd, if not trolling. And how can a forum dweller know when?
Only the people closely involved with MtGox can make an educated guess.

What I can say is that lawyers probably won't cost more than 1 - 2 M$ / year, so only a small fraction of known MtGox funds
will be spent on lawyers. I know because I was involved in a patent lawsuit in the USA and 1 - 2 M$ / year for a mid-range law firm
(actually upper-range, based in Washington DC) is the norm, in Japan prices are probably in the same ballpark.

From the poll choices is see that people hope that the situation will be resolved soon, but if it's up to Karpeles, it just won't.
He repeatedly lied to his customers, and the only hope is that the authorities will force him to do the right things.

The July 2013 capitulation was a mild one, and the main reason for that was the fiat withdrawal issue at MtGox,
which at that point was still the dominant exchange. There is no guarantee that this one will be mild too.
Currently the market is more fragmented and it is comparatively less liquid in bitcoins. That's why market moves
take much longer than in 2013, wasting everybody's time. But speculator fiat is slowly moving out,
while the ask side will become beefier. This doesn't exclude a fake breakout, like in late May 2013.

Those spending bitcoins (large sums) are mostly long-term holders. They will not buy back bitcoins now, but will wait for the real bottom.
This is bearish, as I already said in January. But once the price will drop further, overstock sales paid with bitcoins will slow down.

For the peak of the next bubble, 3000$ is within reach, but only if the current bubble won't deflate catastrophically (to below 100$).
From 63$ to 1163$ (Bitstamp prices), it was about 18x in about 5 months. So with a bottom of about 150$ - 200$, 3000$ for the next ATH
is possible IMO. But it would require an increase in demand similar to the one from China, and I don't see yet where that will come from.

It's not exactly the Russian Army, but Spetsnaz. Quoting from Jane's:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently denied that what the Ukrainian media widely refers to as the 'little green men' currently controlling key facilities in Crimea are Russian troops, maintaining a pretence that they are instead 'local self-defence groups'.

Further to the CPC report, images passed to IHS Jane's by another source close to the OSCE clearly show many examples of equipment specific to the Russian military - and in some cases Russian special forces (Spetsnaz) - being used by the 'little green men' in Crimea. Among these are: Spetsnaz-style muzzle brakes on Russian AK-100 series assault rifles; VSS (Vintorez) suppressed 9 mm sniper rifles issued primarily to Spetsnaz units for undercover or clandestine operations; Russian RPG-26 anti-tank rocket launchers; Russian NVD 1P93 and USP-1 weapon sights; Russian 6B43 bulletproof vests, 6Sh117 tactical vests and ShBM helmets; and Russian R-168-0,5UME tactical radios.

Quoting from Wikipedia:

The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances is a political agreement signed in Budapest, Hungary on 5 December 1994, providing security assurances by its signatories relating to Ukraine's accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The Memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear-powers, the Russian Federation, the United States of America, and the United Kingdom. China and France gave somewhat weaker individual assurances in separate documents.
The memorandum included security assurances against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine as well as those of Belarus and Kazakhstan. As a result Ukraine gave up the world's third largest nuclear weapons stockpile between 1994 and 1996.

Between March 1994 and June 1996, about 2,000 nuclear munitions of strategic weapon systems were removed from Ukraine to Russia for disassembly. In all, considering tactical weapons, about 5,000 nuclear munitions were moved to Russia in almost 100 trains. On June 2, 1996 Ukraine officially lost its nuclear status.

According to the memorandum, Russia, the U.S., and the UK confirmed, in recognition of Ukraine becoming party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and in effect abandoning its nuclear arsenal to Russia, that they would:
Respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty within its existing borders.
Refrain from the threat or use of force against Ukraine.
Refrain from using economic pressure on Ukraine in order to influence its politics.
Seek United Nations Security Council action if nuclear weapons are used against Ukraine.
Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Ukraine.
Consult with one another if questions arise regarding these commitments.

Following the 2014 Crimean crisis, the U.S. and U.K. both separately stated that Russian involvement is in breach of its obligations to Ukraine under the Budapest Memorandum, and in clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.

A second wave of Russian military reinforcements has been heading towards Ukraine's eastern border, prior to the formal annexation of the region by Russia on 18 March.

Train loads of Russian tanks, heavy artillery, rocket launchers and armoured troop carriers have been revealed in news media reports and social media posts heading westwards from central Russia and Siberia, while airborne exercises have been conducted in the region.

Two trains were filmed in Saratov on 14 March carrying more than 20 T-90 main battle tanks (MBTs) and several 2S3 152mm self-propelled artillery systems (SPAs). Images also emerged of a station in Omsk, Siberia, showing trains loaded with heavy artillery and rocket launchers.

That's correct, volatility would increase with less liquidity.
But it's not clear if the 850k coins are 'missing'. We don't know yet who controls them, and they haven't been destroyed (keys lost forever).
Some coins could still be in posession of MtGox (by some counts 332k), some could be controlled (and currently sold) by hackers.

Such hypocrisy... For the noobs who don't know, rpietila IS an early adopter.
His claim that because he chose not to buy today, somehow makes him an 'early anti-adopter' is bullshit.
He knows that in today's bear market there is little profit to make, but risks are high, so he (and his buddies) simply don't buy today.

IMO preparing to sell on other exchanges. Limited withdraws may be allowed after the bottom of the bear market,
in the meantime Gox will be able to buy back the missing coins, a couple of months from now, at about 1 / 3 of current price.

Interesting article on CNN: Obama screams loudly, carries no stick. 
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/15/opinion/gingrich-graham-ukraine-obama/index.html?hpt=hp_t5

IMO the inverted cup and handle scenario can only happen if Chinese exchanges would be shut down by their government.
In such a case, most coins from China would be cashed out on Western exchanges, and the result would be a death spiral
similar to the one seen on MtGox before shutting down. If Chinese exchanges will keep operating, this bear market is going
to take a long time to fully deflate. Looking at Huobi, the bottom of the first sub-wave after wave B is significantly higher than
the bottom of corrective wave A, so Huobi is for now less bearish than Bitstamp, maybe there's still some demand in China.

There's a rumor that the remaining Gox coins are being anonymized, possibly using CoinJoin. Anyone can confirm this?

To me it seems that the 'factor of 3' is not correct. So far, the bear market (not just a correction) has been slower than that.
From 25th April to 3rd May 2013, there were 9 days to drop from the top of wave B. Now from the 6th January to the
25th February, the same drop from the top of wave B took 49 days. So it's more like 'factor of 5'. In April 2013 the corrective wave A
has been harsh, with lots of volume, and that's why it moved fast. The pace slowed in May, so this factor of 5 may need adjusting.
But it's too early to tell if the current market has completed one upward sub-sub-wave and a small correction and has begun the
second upward sub-sub-wave, that could reach 750$ if seller pressure won't be high.

Are you saying that the transaction was in USD, but because after the transaction completed, the seller converted USD to RUR,
the transaction appeared in the RUR market? I find more likely that the buyer converted USD to RUR, knowing that on the RUR market
he would be able to buy with little slippage and cash out via bitcoins in January. As for the cashing out via RUR and JPY, these may have
taken some time to complete. AFAIK the JPY withdrawals worked until these big transactions happened and Gox became empty for good.
Anyway, I think that a Japanese prosecutor investigating MtGox should find out who withdrew RUR and JPY from these transactions.

OK. I find something else fishy with the ruble chart. IMO it would have been impossible to get such high volume with little slippage.
To me, the green candle means that it was a huge (for the ruble market) ask wall, and it was bought into. Is this correct?
If so, who suddenly had so many rubles required for the transaction? Maybe the seller and buyer were acting together.
The buyer still had some time to withdraw bitcoins before the shit hit the fan.

LOL, how can I be completely wrong if I admitted believing there was some insider trading / withdrawal. You are taking this too personal...
The ruble chart is new info, looks suspicious indeed. But how could it be? Such high volume with little slippage?

This doesn't really prove there was insider trading / withdrawals (although I tend to believe it was some).
Could have been just experienced traders who recognized a wave B and sold to bag holders.
Not on MtGox, where they couldn't have cashed out, but on other exchanges.
I posted about the top of wave B in January and of course I was laughed at by the uber-bulls.