I think the data shows that the vaccine initially provides some protection against infection [...] but this protection wanes over time. Relying on the vaccine to prevent infection that only lasts a limited time is not a sustainable, nor realistic solution.
Yes, the data show that the protection from vaccination wanes over time. The data also show that protection from previous infection wanes over time (the lower part of the chart I shared). I'm sure that some of the reason the protection drops in both scenarios is that we are dealing with new variants. It may be that protection against the previous variant persists more strongly... but this is moot as we are making a relative comparison between the protection conferred by vaccination and that conferred by previous infection. Both offer protection that wanes over time. The advantage of vaccination is that you get that protection without contracting the virus. Protection through contracting the virus is stupid - you catch it so that you won't have to catch it. That's correct, and first and foremost, if you do end up infected with Covid, chances are that you'll have pretty mild symptoms, even lesser than the flu. I was infected a month ago, and trust me, I've been through way worse illnesses. It's pretty pointless to count on natural immunity, when you can simply get vaccinated and be done with it, on top of that, you can't predict how your sickness will progress, if you are infected as an unvaccinated person. The problem with the gene therapy 'vaccine' is that it wanes down to the point where you are more likely to get the SARS-cov-2 virus infection if you had the jab than if you have not. Public health data in various places is now showing that. More likely to die too. The most likely thing which is becoming apparent a year in is that the jabbed people have a new form of AIDS and SARS-cov-2 is just one of many things which people succumb to infection of at a higher rate as their immune systems undergo a slow degradation and failure. It doesn't seem that it is exclusively the social and economic devastation brought on failed corp/gov policy (or 'succeeded' depending on whether you are sheep or a wolf) that is responsible for the skyrocketing excess mortality. The side-effects of the de-pop shot also seem to be a big and rapidly growing factor. Hamburg (Germany) is now saying that they were not lying when they tried to say it was the unvaxxed who were getting the covaids. No, it was a 'software error' responsible for the statistics lies and a result of 'upgrading systems.' It's more and more clear that the same 'software errors' happened all across Germany and in other parts of the world as well. The problem with lying is that the lies build on top of one another and eventually it comes time to pay the piper. It's notable that many of the Jonestown people drank the Kool-aid even while dead bodies were filling up the paths and lawns. I don't expect it to be any different for the Covidian cultists. Would be nice if we could just get it over with and move on the the next phase in the battles because, unlike in with Jim Jones, the perps are not going to pack it in. They are just getting started. I've always wondered from which source you're getting such information, and make such bold claims. First and foremost, vaccinated people account for the majority of the population in most developed countries, thus, it's not than strange that the number of cases are consisted of 80% of a country's population. Furthermore, if you take Greece for instance, 80-85% of the people with severe illness in ICUs are unvaccinated. |
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I think the data shows that the vaccine initially provides some protection against infection [...] but this protection wanes over time. Relying on the vaccine to prevent infection that only lasts a limited time is not a sustainable, nor realistic solution.
Yes, the data show that the protection from vaccination wanes over time. The data also show that protection from previous infection wanes over time (the lower part of the chart I shared). I'm sure that some of the reason the protection drops in both scenarios is that we are dealing with new variants. It may be that protection against the previous variant persists more strongly... but this is moot as we are making a relative comparison between the protection conferred by vaccination and that conferred by previous infection. Both offer protection that wanes over time. The advantage of vaccination is that you get that protection without contracting the virus. Protection through contracting the virus is stupid - you catch it so that you won't have to catch it. That's correct, and first and foremost, if you do end up infected with Covid, chances are that you'll have pretty mild symptoms, even lesser than the flu. I was infected a month ago, and trust me, I've been through way worse illnesses. It's pretty pointless to count on natural immunity, when you can simply get vaccinated and be done with it, on top of that, you can't predict how your sickness will progress, if you are infected as an unvaccinated person. |
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I've known about Bitcoin since 2013, and I've been on this forum for quite a long time now (almost a decade), with only a few years of inactivity in between. However, I still call myself a newbie and I have to admit, I've missed many of those boats you're talking about. It's not because I don't believe in Bitcoin nor because I'm one of those who only praise it when the price is rising, it's because I'm more reserved when making such moves.
When I used to trade, I used to get severe anxiety when shit happened, and spent quite some time just observing and stressing about the market, which is definitely wrong. I also can't stand my own whining in case I take a big loss. Thus, I've resorted to staking, or simply accumulating Bitcoin through other ways.
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Depends on the period we are talking about. Nobody really knows if it will collapse or mature in the short run, it could both collapse or it could mature in the short period, like from today to next 3-6 months. However, if we are talking about years and years down the road then we are definitely going to see it mature in the long run.
I just never even imagine a possible world where bitcoin is not going up in the long run, today is cheaper than 10 years later, and 10 years later is cheaper than 20 years later, and 20 ye.. well you got the idea. So that is why I always keep on buying more and more, bought under 10k, bought over 60k, doesn't matter what the price is, if I have some saved aside, I will always buy bitcoin.
I'm mostly referring to long-term, not much use to talk about what's going to happen in the next upcoming months, it might go down, like it's occurring now, but that's not much of an issue to me. If we're patient enough, I'm certain that our patience will pay off, if not soon, it will happen in the upcoming years. Currently, we're seeing a lot of ups and downs throughout the market, which is definitely worrying, especially when you're seeing your coins' value slowly disappear, but with correct management, we'll get through it without any losses. |
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What you should know: - The "vaccine" reduces the risk of people contracting and spreading the virus, but it's not 100%* since it's related to (1) efficacy, (2) waning effect, (3) age/natural immunity, and (4) COVID variant. For perspective, even if you were double jabbed, you'll have as low as 2% less risk for omicron. - You can still spread the virus even you aren't infected (or tested negative). The virus can stay on your clothes, hair, mask, etc. *I don't want to mention exact number since the data collected can be garbage, it's not as simple as counting death/hospitalization. With other words what you say. Your chances of chatching a cold is reduced by 2% the risk of a earlier death (unknown long term consequences from toxic injection) increases by 98% https://rumble.com/embed/vqqmda/?pub=4The pandemic started a long time ago with the virus in the brain. No. FFS. Have a look at the link that mu_enrico provided. The point about waning efficacy is very relevant. If you've had the third (booster) shot, your chances of symptomatic infection are reduced by 63%. The link is a summary of UK data from late November to mid-December. The chart I shared earlier in this thread covers UK data for the second half of December, and might be easier for you to understand as it's a picture rather than a table. The best protection against testing positive for Omicron is having contracted Delta. Second best is having had the third shot. But obviously the "second best" protection comes with the added benefit that you don't have to have contracted Covid previously. Protection can be conferred either through previous infection or through vaccination, which is both overwhelmingly safe and hugely effective. This really shouldn't be a difficult choice. The effectiveness of natural immunity is yet to be proven, at least in a prolonged time period. I don't get why people are being so supportive of it, claiming that they'd rather be infected to acquire immunity, rather than getting vaccinated, the risk of having severe symptoms is way higher than having vaccine side effects. I was infected a few weeks ago, but I'll also receive the third dose in April. |
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I never actually had any significant amount of Bitcoin, thus, I mostly used online services such as Blockchain.com and BitGo, without any issues at all. After reading more about wallets and safety measures, here on the forum, I refrained from using online services and downloaded Electrum on my laptop. It's a decent choice, but not the best one nonetheless, since the computer has access to the internet, and whatever goes by it.
However, I see a lot of other people posting that they are using wallets on their smartphones, which struck me, because I don't see the reason. Phones are vulnerable to theft and phising attempts through public networks and so on.
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Even if bitcoin reaches the dream price of 1 million dollars yet this bitcoin will valued 10,000 USD in which still low to be considered as rich people.so meaning 0.01 bitcoin will never make a person rich even if bitcoin take 10 million as this will increase to 100k and still not that high.so i think the amount to be considered as good for the future is at least 0.1 bitcoin or more than this .
While $10.000 is a decent amount of money, it's far from making rich or well-off. In most developed countries, it's less than a year's salary. Pretty optimistic/unrealistic to believe that Bitcoin would reach 1 million dollars though, I wonder how many people actually think that. ~
If I only took that "a decade ago" chance to buy one coin, I can't imagine where I am right now, but meh. Seems like I am putting too much attention to price making me slowly regret and slowly try to panic buy lol. .01 BTC is just kind of the monthly of some people here in my country, so meh it's not your "when lambo" moment to think about. There's no point, we might say the exact same thing in 10 years from now, just do your best and try to accumulate as much Bitcoin as you can, without getting too frustrated about it. |
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Can't predict what's going to happen in 5-10 or 20 years, however, 0.01 BTC is far from making you rich, no matter how much it gains in value. $100.000 definitely isn't, nothing, because we are way too far from surpassing it, which is certainly not happening in the following 2-3 months, or even way more.
I can't be bothered to dig up my old posts but the last time I entertained the idea of $1 million Bitcoin I'm pretty sure I also thought it was likelier I would be scattered over the seven seas decades earlier. $10,000 I'm also sure would be worth far less then than it would be today, adjusted for inflation. $10,000 today wouldn't make you rich in the country I come from, even if it's a small fortune worth over 4 years of minimum wage. So I'm always going to agree with you about 0.01 BTC. It won't make you rich, not today, not at $1 million Bitcoin. No. It means you are a $400'anaire, give or take depending on market price.
Why did you misspell 'rich person' with a symbol and digits though?  Certainly, 0.01 BTC was worth a few dollars at best, 10 years ago, many people go by this saying and believe that in 10 years from now, that fraction of Bitcoin could potentially be worth a fortune, but I highly doubt it. There's definitely a bright future ahead of us, I'm certain that this period is ideal for accumulating more, that in the future, could possibly be worth a lot of money. |
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Am I the only one who finds these kinds of predictions incredibly stupid and naive? I believe in Bitcoin, but I highly doubt it that it will be ever worth that much. I seriously do not understand who, why and how they make such predictions. How can someone come up with such an ambitious projection, especially now, with the $100.000 mark looking too far away and unrealistic for the time being.
If only you understood what Bitcoin is all about, then you wouldn't be making such comments. The fact that Bitcoin is deflationary, tells us that its price should go higher over time. Not only that, but Bitcoin is the most decentralized cryptocurrency in the world. $100k is nothing considering that Bitcoin is the best sound money the world has ever seen. With Fiat currencies' inflation on the rise, we should see a Bitcoin valued over $1m at a very fast pace. Knowing that Bitcoin kept reaching new All-time-highs over time, tells me that it's possible to become rich in the future with just 0.01 BTC. The chances are even higher when you accumulate more than that. Right now, Bitcoin's price is declining so it's the best time to grow our stack of coins before it's too late. Who knows how far Bitcoin will go in terms of price and mainstream adoption? Just my thoughts  Can't predict what's going to happen in 5-10 or 20 years, however, 0.01 BTC is far from making you rich, no matter how much it gains in value. $100.000 definitely isn't, nothing, because we are way too far from surpassing it, which is certainly not happening in the following 2-3 months, or even way more. |
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It may go up soon. Since November, Bitcoin lost 25k in value. Maybe there will be a 3rd wave coming which will be a lot. It's never too late to buy bitcoin. If you can't buy bitcoin, don't worry, just buy a fraction.
Man, who says buying Bitcoin at this current price is too late? Did those who missed the 2010 or 2016 pump too late to buy bitcoin? If someone is on Bitcoin for quite a long time, there's nothing to worry. Bear market is ideal to buy more fractions of Bitcoin, only those weak hands are so worried when Btc falls. I have a strong feeling that Bitcoin may fall below $30k and so I guess it's better to CDA currently, then buy massively below $30k. Definitely not too late to buy Bitcoin. Generally, people mention that because its value has gone up and it's no longer risk-free. This could potentially be one of the best opportunities in terms of acquiring and accumulating Bitcoin, losing more than 50% of its value, from the previous all time high in November. From my point of view, Bitcoin is highly likely to fall below $35.000 in the next few days at most. |
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$20K sounds fair if we are talking about not the worse situation. It could dip lower than that if we are really going to experience another long bear market, it's not going to surprise a lot of us whos been around for years with the ups and downs in BTC market. The market somehow becomes very predictable to the old traders that they know after 3-6months the price will be this low after the ATH. But for us who plays in the 1-4hour chart, the market keeps swinging from the bottom and then ups.
$13K could also be the bottom but seem too deep already and it's a bargain for a new country to begin buying to adopt BTC.
It's astonishing that approximately two years ago, Bitcoin was surpassing $20.000 and constantly reaching new all time high records. Look at us now, trying to predict where will the downtrend stop. On the one hand, $20-$25k does sound plausible, but on the other hand, there seems to be some kind of resistance at the $35.000 price level, which is stuck now for the past two days. |
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I was found to have contracted the Delta variant, hopefully, the symptoms weren't that bad, I've honestly felt worse with past sicknesses.
[...]
I was to receive the third dose in late January or early February, unfortunately, Covid got the best of me and now I can't.
The chart above is from the UK, from the second half of December, when Omicron was sweeping the country. You can see that the factor that conferred the highest protection (from Omicron) for this dataset was having had previously contracted the Delta variant... so if Omicron sweeps through your country soon, then it looks like you should have some decent protection. So that's some good news. Anyway, most important is that you've recovered. Thank you, that's good news, I thought I would be susceptible to the Omicron variant, due to being infected with the Delta previously, don't know why but it sounded plausible in my head. Omicron is currently sweeping the country here too, but till a few weeks ago, the analogy between Omicron and Delta was said to be 60/40 -70/30. Chances are, it has increased dramatically now. |
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Am I the only one who finds these kinds of predictions incredibly stupid and naive? I believe in Bitcoin, but I highly doubt it that it will be ever worth that much. I seriously do not understand who, why and how they make such predictions. How can someone come up with such an ambitious projection, especially now, with the $100.000 mark looking too far away and unrealistic for the time being.
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According to Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC), vaccines do prevent infection, however, it is not guaranteed, while the preventive protection dies down after a few months. They certainly assist in preventing severe illness/symptoms or even death. I was vaccinated with two doses of Pfizer, the second one was received approximately 6 months ago. I got infected but only developed mild symptoms, some fever (~38 C), sore throat, a little cough and that's about it. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness/why-measure-effectiveness/breakthrough-cases.htmlThe chart below demonstrates the extent to which vaccines have prevented infection in the UK, and also demonstrates quite clearly how protection wanes over time. As with a lot of Covid charts, there are many complicating factors, and arguably the dimensions on the second chart should be flipped vertically to retain the time trend from the top chart... but it's all quite clear in any case. It's interesting that people who had a first vaccine more than 6 months ago, but never followed it up with a second vaccine are more likely to contract Covid than someone who is unvaccinated. This is interesting, and I'd like to see more detail. I suspect this might be a very small group, of whom a disproportionate percentage have since moved into the 'too vulnerable to vaccinate' category, and so would be at higher risk regardless of vaccination status... but this is supposition, and I have no data on it. One thing - perhaps the most important thing - is not covered on these charts, and that's hospitalisation by vaccination status, the data for which isn't available from the ONS. But data from elsewhere, as I've presented previously, have certainly indicated that the risk of severe symptoms is much lower if you've been vaccinated. Another factor, again supposition, might be that people are more likely to be tested if they are symptomatic. If vaccines protect against symptoms, then they would also reduce the likelihood of you taking a test, in which case the vaccine protection would actually be greater than that presented on those charts. @Ultegra134 - your second Pfizer jab ~6 months ago, with no third jab, would seem to protect you slightly against infection... but as I say, the protection from severe symptoms is perhaps more important.  https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsightsI was to receive the third dose in late January or early February, unfortunately, Covid got the best of me and now I can't. Certainly, the most important thing about vaccines is to prevent serious illness, which could potentially even lead to hospitalisation in an ICU unit or even death. I was found to have contracted the Delta variant, hopefully, the symptoms weren't that bad, I've honestly felt worse with past sicknesses. |
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Well done, I wish I knew half of what's written here. I bet it took quite some time to summarize all the information into one, summarised post. I'll keep this thread bookmarked and use it as an insight for real life Bitcoin discussions, to answer your questions that I do not know how to explain correctly.
Good riddance on the merit requirement too, you'll soon become Sr Member.
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Thanks Ultegra134. We were getting signs of sideways accumulation period at 40k, but the recent stock market drop pushed us over the edge. I don't think we can call it a crash yet, but it's bad for some co0mpanies like Netflix that lost over 20%. If you look at US stocks, they had their highs last year, just like Bitcoin. The demand will continue to rise the lower we get. For instance, the rich keep buying. Just take a look at what this address is doing. It kept adding to its balance every time Bitcoin had a drop, since November. It bought at 50, 40 and now 30k. https://btc.com/btc/address/1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQThere was also a huge (1 billion) USDt transfer to binance today. We can divide BTC price action into fueled by internal and external factors. Internal ones are usually problematic for the long run, like the Gox bankruptcy. External problems may look bad at first but are really a great entry points even for the short-term investor. A good example of such external problems was the US lockdown crash of 2020. You're welcome, my pleasure. The stock market is also bearish the past few weeks or maybe months, it was kind of expected that cryptocurrencies would be severely affected eventually. I've never seen such a high balance in my lifetime, more than $4.5 billion dollars in value, while Bitcoin purchases aren't stopping, he definitely knows what he's doing, otherwise he wouldn't kept buying. I'm not familiar with the whole investment thing, any BTC I ever owned was accumulated through a variety of ways, I've never actually bought from scratch, in terms of investment. I used to trade in the past, but have now stopped, unfortunately to be honest, I don't have the stomach to do it. |
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Every time the market is green, we see a lot of youtube and social media influencers come out to guide people and to predict the targets for bitcoin and altcoins. But as the market dumps, we see no sign of these moon boys. Why don't they come to advise us in the these times.
Maybe they are unable to face the public because they have given too much unrealistic hopim to the people ?
I don't know, how it becomes an unrealistic prediction!! Every trader and hodler said that Bitcoin will cross the previous ATH after halving, is that unrealistic? They said Bitcoin can surpass the Gold marketcap, is that unrealistic? they predict Bitcoin will touch $60K by end of 2021, is that unrealistic? which one is unrealistic I don't actually get that. Bitcoin is not one direction financial system that goes only upward all time, correction is also a part of the system you have to consider it. Currently, I placed my buy order from $35K to $20K. if it will go below $20K probably I will be out of funds. And I will Hodl till next Bull run. Throw out your emotions and be realistic. While I understand your point of view, predictions aren't always accurate, and usually, they are out of touch. Let me point out that a large amount of people actually believed that the $100.000 mark was plausible within 2021. When I pointed out that it's highly unlikely and unrealistic, a lot of people were pissed and said otherwise. Don't get me wrong, I believe that the market will recover eventually, but it'll definitely take time. |
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According to Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC), vaccines do prevent infection, however, it is not guaranteed, while the preventive protection dies down after a few months. They certainly assist in preventing severe illness/symptoms or even death. I was vaccinated with two doses of Pfizer, the second one was received approximately 6 months ago. I got infected but only developed mild symptoms, some fever (~38 C), sore throat, a little cough and that's about it. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness/why-measure-effectiveness/breakthrough-cases.html |
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~
Will we never fall below 29k? This is too optimistic and presumptuous. Of course, we can dive much deeper than this mark. For a cryptocurrency, a 50-60% drop is generally a miserable amount. In cryptocurrencies, even stablecoins sometimes fell by 50%. Stablecoins!!! And you want bitcoin, a highly volatile asset, to keep its value above 29k all the time. He has a great potential to drop to at least 20k - 15k. It's such a volatile market that any derivatives exchange could break it if they start a cascade of liquidations. In March 2020, Bitcoin couldlose 99% of its value in one day. And if Bitmex hadn’t forcibly turned off the exchange, you would have easily seen the price of $0. Read the post-mortem of these events, you will be surprised how fragile the bitcoin market has become due to the development of derivatives markets. Therefore, saving 29k is very optimistic. By the way, in 2021 there was a failure on Binance Futures. Price just fell to the range of 10,000 - 13,000. Another indirect sign. As for the theory of the cyclical nature of the bitcoin market. No one was able to oppose anything to the graphics that I posted at the top of this thread. Just continuous subjective rejection of obvious information. Now, if the annual candle of 2022 closes in green, then it will be possible to argue that this cyclic formation does not work and you should not rely on it at all. Until that happens and the market (for now) draws a red annual candle, this formation works whether you like it or not. I don't think that 20k is impossible, just that IMO we have 50/50 chance of holding 30k, or going lower towards 20, but IMO 15 is improbable for many reasons like moving averages, bitcoin history of always holding the last ATH when it's been breached for the second time, round numbers like 20k being key targets for most people, crowd mentality and so on. That 13k you're pointing at was a pandemic flash crash when USA announced total lockdown. It was something we call a black swan event, pretty much comparable to a big terrorist attack, beginning of an armed conflict and so on. I don't think we can simply bleed for a year until we finally reach 13k again. Since Bitcoin is not really backed by anything other than trust of the people, then I have always lived with the idea that the absolute bottom for Bitcoin is somewhere near 1$. In the current situation I do not find it likely at all that it would reach that, but I would also be very cautious about relying too much on historic data about Bitcoin performance. It can be a useful indicator for sure, but it gives us no hard rules about the current bottom.
you have point. But even though it's not backed by anything else probably those people who always can get benefits in it will not let bitcoin to go back from the starting point especially big holders because it's a big loss for them as well. Just imagine if bitcoin suddenly fell from $1 seems the end of journey.. But i believe the real principle still useful and will always the real key to make bitcoin shine no matter what, wherein there's no way it will not keep holding every support level as long as there are still some people believing that bitcoin still a worth it than any cryptocurrency in the market. Please... Google how many times in the last 10 years people said that it's over and the next stop is $1, 0, or some other low number. Global mining is worth billions of USD, we have more investments in the space than we've had at 10 or 15k per coin. We have more users, more hash power, more companies involved. If we couldn't reach $1 in 2014 when Mt. Gox collapsed, we will not see it now. In fact, a $100k bitcoin is much more probable than a $1k bitcoin. I find it to be funny that this time last year people were celebrating 30k USD and today everybody is sad because we're only at 30k. Curb your expectations! Buy now and don't look at the price until 2023 and you'll thank me for it. It's always darkest right before the dawn.For all of you, who are scared now, here's a thread from last year, when people were saying the same thing, that it's all over, it's bear market, we will keep falling for years, and 3 months later BTC was at a new high. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5331595.new#newWhile I respect both opinions, I tend to believe that while $29.000 does sound plausible, I wouldn't be surprised if it crashed even further, below $20.000 or $25.000. Great explanation, though, rounded up your merit to 700 . Anyway, I do remember that we had the same thing last year, shortly after the new all-time high. While our concerns are understandable, and it's not easy to maintain your cool, I'm positive that it will recover in the upcoming 2-3 months, which isn't a big deal to be honest. |
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This thread is now 3.5 years old and it was written when Bitcoin was in the bear market and interestingly enough it is always re-published when Bitcoin is in the bear market again  While Bitcoin is rising it is very quiet here with new posts. Yes, the price of bitcoin has fallen again: after reaching a peak of $69,000, today we see its price of $35,586. Fall almost half. Therefore, this thread will probably be looked at more often. Earlier it was predicted that bitcoin could fall in price to $33,000. It seems that this prediction is justified. The cycle repeats itself: weak hands will leave the market with big losses, after which we will probably again see a stronger cryptocurrency price increase. The only question is how long will this bearish period last? Well, Bitcoin has lost more than 50% of its value, from the previous ATH of $70.000, leading into billions of losses. Certainly, it's concerning, while the downtrend is still continuing without much resistance. I strongly believe that it's bound to crash even further in the upcoming days. We're definitely going to face some dark days, for quite a long time. I'm quite disappointed, but trying to keep my cool. In the meantime, I'll see if there are any decent opportunities in staking. |
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