I firmly believe in Friedcat...he is being quiet right now because he is busy working on the next big thing.
Wait until he makes the next major announcement...you can be sure that it will be nothing short of "game changing".
Div's are great as they are, but I think they will come back to a new ATH once he is done withholding and new hardware is for sale.
Me,either believing in him too ..I think may be FC's 2 gen chips isn't as fast as others ,but I am quite confident that FC has superior cost advantage, due to low electricity and manufacturing cost in China. I also believing that he has the ability to deploying more hashrate , the reason he hasn't, is because he is waiting for his 2 gen chips into mass production, for people who think this investment is suck , please quoted that even AM's dividend has dropped sharply, it still the asset paying highest dividend in the public exchange. I bet once FC finally deployed his 1PH, we will see the share price may back to 4 again, for all people sale at 2BTC, that is not a smart move. |
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3.5 BTC, This really a attractive price ..I think a lot of people will placing orders.
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Didn't expect this: BTC-MINING paid a dividend: 1.06212424
WOW，This a great news ...will this continues? |
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Great ,a bug there ...everyone did not go through the IPO , it is your opportunity ~~~~!!!
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No shares ,bitcoin freezen, great job!!! can anyone tell me why ?
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Is the server went down, because I had difficulty to open the website, I am in China.
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我们现在说的是如何给AM估值.
你说的这些我只看到一句是跟估值比较相关的:"现实世界里的股价，都是市盈率几十倍的，烤猫离这个还太远"
很多人会有跟你一样的想法,我觉得很有必要来讨论下.
A股平均市盈率18倍(没去看瞎猜的),与之对应的公司债市盈率16.7倍(按6%年息换算).投资者为什么给股票18倍,是对比了其它投资渠道的收益后的结果.
再来看比特币证券市场,债券Great.Loan市盈率5倍(按年复利20%算).对比这样的债券,你还坚持AM也应该几十倍的市盈率吗?
基于以上的认识,我才敢说10BTC的AM都是扯蛋,更不要说20BTC了.
我也不认同股价上10 ，我的观点只是烤猫不因该生命周期，所以它的股价也不能建立在可见的年份的P.E ratio 来做根据而已。 |
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庄家能影响一支股票的价格一时或者一段时间,但长期来说股价终归会反应这家公司的价值.从投资的角度来看,ASICMINER的投资者永远也赚不到10BTC/股.所以我敢打赌,在未来的任何一个时间点,AM都不会在10BTC之上.如果我所赌的那个时间点买家都疯了推过了10BTC,那我也认了.
如果那个时间点过了10BTC,也是买家疯了，而不是你判断失误，这是什么逻辑呢？ 假设AM在它的生命周期里共能带给投资者5BTC的收益,那就就算它的股价到了50BTC,那也改变不了它最多值5BTC的事实. 为什么一定要给烤猫设定一个生命周期？如果你觉得他只能除了挖矿和卖设备就没有第二个活法了的话，我觉得真的也挺不现实的。 比特币发展都后期，如果是健康的发展下去的话，交易频繁程度肯定也会增大，到那个时候肯定会需要一些专业的矿工来负责记帐，赚取手续费。这也是BIT币设计的一个初衷，就算那天设备卖不动了，他们一样可以活下去，只要比特币还活着。 公司估值的本质就是预计这家公司在他的生存周期里能给投资者带来多少回报. 提到"AM的生命周期"只是为了说明估值的本质,估值的出发点.一般给一家公司估值都是预计它永续经营的,但没人会计算它30,50年后能带来的收益,因为有一个折现率,20年后带来的收益折现在现在是非常少的,所以AM能活30年还是50年对现在的投资者来说几乎没有差别. AM除了挖矿和卖矿机外,也许还能卖煎猫大卖特卖.你真的愿意为这个可能的收益而增加你的估价吗? 你能告诉我AM值多少,并且给出你的计算方法吗? 这里面没有计算方法，只是简单的说明AM不一定只可以挖矿和卖设备，所以它的价值光根据挖矿和卖设备来衡量未免不妥。而且非要将其设定个生命周期也是不合适的。 现实世界里的股价，都是市盈率几十倍的，烤猫离这个还太远，或许你要说那是因为别人有资产，那我问一下烤猫的品牌还有它的技术，它以后的DATE CENTER这一类是不是也算是资产。 BTC如果活下去，烤猫因该都能活下去，而且比其他公司活得精彩，毕竟它的经验摆在那里。 现阶段BTC的股价确实只根红利挂钩，以后可能还会有其他的因素也慢慢的加进来吧。 |
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is ASICMINER allowed to write a motion proposing a stock split? I believe a 10:1 stock split would greatly benefit the company.
Shares are trading at almost 5BTC right now, which is around 450~ USD per share. This is a great sum of money. The next best option are the TAT.ASICMINER shares which are 100:1 but incure a 5% fee.
A 10:1 split would mean shares would be at 0.47/share, which will be a much more acceptable entry point for many newcomers.
Shares of Apple trade at more than $400. At one time over $700. They still sell well. or Google @ $900+... Group buy of one Google shares seems urgently needed... |
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As previously announced, I have been working on a series of spreadsheets that will allow investors to view all information pertaining to LabRatMining and how the Bitcoin network and exchange rates affect the company. This spreadsheet was developed to add some clarity to the previously vague "Minimum of 100MH/s per bond." I have taken into account all variables involved except reinvestment by the company as this quantity will vary over time. There are fixed costs involved in hosting the equipment as well as variable costs that will determine the amount that will be reinvested. Below is some data that has been calculated given a scenario based around the following assumptions: -BTC/USD = $90.00 -Expected Difficulty at the time of hardware deployment = 45,000,000 -The period of time you wish to measure in weeks = 26 -The percent increase in difficulty per adjustment = 14 Total hashrate in TH for LabRatMining given bond sales6.9 @16,500 bonds sold 8.4 @20,000 bonds sold 13.5 @30,000 bonds sold 18.6 @40,000 bonds sold 24.1 @50,000 bonds sold 29.5 @60,000 bonds sold 35.3 @70,000 bonds sold 41.2 @80,000 bonds sold 47.3 @90,000 bonds sold 53.5 @100,000 bonds sold Individuals hashrate per bond based on bond sales313.86 @16,500 bonds sold 314.34 @20,000 bonds sold 337.22 @30,000 bonds sold 348.65 @40,000 bonds sold 360.86 @50,000 bonds sold 369.05 @60,000 bonds sold 378.71 @70,000 bonds sold 385.96 @80,000 bonds sold 394.57 @90,000 bonds sold 401.48 @100,000 bonds sold Price per GH at given bond purchase price according to bond salesAverage of $42/GH/s (hosting and electric included.) ProfitabilityAverage returns to be expected are likely to be in the range of 70-90% above and beyond the initial investment over 26 weeks. Difficulty ProjectionsIn this calculator I have included the ability to use differing assumptions to estimate difficulty over 26 weeks. These values are included in formulas that may be used to estimate returns. This calculator is complex and therefore comes with a README that can be used to explain the data and formulas. This spreadsheet was made using Excel. You may download the spreadsheet to allow for input of your own assumptions. The fact that these were produced using Excel may cause some individuals to not have access to using the full potential of this calculator, but Google Docs has a built in spreadsheet viewer that will give you the full information based on the assumptions above. Here is the link to access the complete spreadsheet and README: https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0BwZCh0jtSZkwR1A4RS04TkNUcVU&usp=sharingBecause you have stetted a price gap ,there are little hope you will sold your bonds above 0.15... anyway, the calculation above isn't the same , for example : you said 16500 sold would be 6.9 TH in total. which should be equivalent to 418M/M h per bond. but you stated that individual bond has 318.86/Mhash. and the term of 100M/hash rate bond which originally you stated in the contract now become 300M/hash rate.(Is that you manage your contract by just typing it like whatever you like to?) So you believe that 100% of all profits made by LRM should be equally distributed amongst the bond holders? Lab Rat isn't running a charity, it is a business. Not to mention all of the other overhead costs and his time investment associated with hosting a large scale mining farm. At least he should update his contract ,in order to disclosure everything in it, not in this thread... the term in his contract is vague and isn't mentioning anything of his cost .. anyway , it is over-priced mining bond contract ,either you believe it or not , you will find out 12 weeks later,Because there will have better value contract in the market by the time. |
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原来挖矿是爱好，现在挖矿是职业。
这有着本质区别，爱好可以长期投入与保持，职业的目的就是赚钱！
大量矿机的出现，会使得一些东西变味，会强化买卖的价值。更多人会去关心币值能兑换多少美元，挖矿是不是能赚钱，其它的？～他们会说等我赚到钱再说吧。
所以我不认为这是好事。
那挖金子也不是每个人都能去挖的，最后影响到金子的价值了么？？？ 越难取得越有价值，物以稀为贵。。对么？ 首先如果这个取得的代价变得难了，这就是成本的支出增大了，买卖的时候就变相的更有交易价值了，为何？ 就像石头跟钻石一个道理吧？ASIC没有阻止你去挖矿，只是提高了你挖矿的成本。 原来BTC像石头，每个人能出门捡，现在像钻石，路上的被人捡完了，你只有去山里找才有。 |
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突然想到一个问题，在别的地方看到说烤猫的算力能达到20%年底还会再升级。
现在不是讲利好或者利空的时候吧。
现在因为矿机太贵，买的人也变少了。好，烤猫等这些公司机器卖不出去了自己挖。
会变成什么样的情况呢？
BTC已经引起美国政府的注意了，如果算力全部掌握在几个人或公司手里，不是很好控制吗。
叫他们停机，或者收购，或者断电，等等
然后美国政府或者联合其它国家一下子增加算力到51%以上直接让BTC崩盘。万事休矣
说烤猫有能力把算能增高到51%以上，只是不想BTC崩盘，所以不会这么做他们，但如果被控制了呢？
ASIC 让算力增长，就算美国政府要让这个系统崩盘他花费的代价也远比原来CPU和GPU时代高的多。 而且大多数BTC都在美国人的手里，政府做那么下三滥的事情就不考虑到本国民众的感受么？ 而且汇过去的都是美金，如果BTC崩盘了，最大的赢家不是美国政府，是MT。GOX和其他的几个交易所，损失最大的也是美国政府，好端端十亿美元就送人了。 而且为什么非得是美国政府来干这个不要脸的事情？你觉得为了10亿去损失自己国家的信誉，值么？ 朋友你的想法太天真了， 而且烤猫是中国公司，干嘛要听美国人的话？？ 更是奇怪中的奇怪了。。。。 |
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金融并不是凭空被发明出来的，金融只是对资金配置逻辑的总结 从郁金香到南海公司，从上世纪三十年代的疯狂故事到新世纪初的网络股。每次沉迷其中的人都会说服自己：”这次不一样“。然而，现实告诉我们，每次都一样，重复过的还会被再重复，太阳底下并无新事 只是我不知道比特币在重复历史上的谁呢？ 我也不知道，请那位高人赐教。 |
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更多算力需要更多矿机支撑，那就意味着更多钱进入了比特币世界，就意味着说比特币真正升值了一个级别。
李老师，看来我们观点一致呀...  |
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Soslove868 definitely has a point guys, if things go south buyers of this asset can only rely on whats in the contract but not what is posted in this thread right.  P.S Lab_rate I think this is a cool asset & wish best of luck to you.  It will be wiser if investors are requesting him to update his contract ,in order to as same as what he mentioned in this thread. also ask him to check his mistake in his calculation, it is a mistake or something isn't fully disclosure,by telling investors what is the reason causing the difference between 418 MHash/s and 318.86 MHash/s . |
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if no one bid up the bonds above 0.16 , then after 12 weeks, according to that BITFURY will delivery its products at earliest on October.
You guys will be burned at 12 weeks later.
We assume network difficulty will continues increase 15% per each adjust date. this equal to 12*7/10=8.4 times
the current 1 Mega/hash is about 0.003 ,recording to DMS.MINING . assume contract value will be decrease upon with the adjustment.
Then it will be 0.003 X (1-0.15)8.4times =0.000766. for 100 M/hash should only worh 0.000766*100=0.0766
P.S: if look back the recent trends of difficulty, it indicated about 20% increase each ten days... Thereby the above calculation is very conservative.
From what you're stating, my bonds at a current minimum value of 300MH/s per bond would pull in at least 0.0766 * 3 = 0.2298 BTC on an investment that costs 0.15 BTC. If the quantity of bonds sold increases, the hashrate per bond follows, but the later purchasers pay slightly more. This would allow for early investors to make more profit, but also increase the company's hashrate maintaining that same profitability through new purchases of bonds. There will also be a sizable re-investment made regularly by LabRatMining further increasing your hashrate. This will in turn increase profitability. So on a worse case scenario according to you, you would make a minimum of your money back +50% and still have the bond in hand to sell at a later date. I don't see anything negative in what you just said. Bitcoin is not a sprint to get rich, it's a marathon to make a profit. If 100000 shares isn't totally sold ,then it only worth 100 millions per bond..Am I right? No, at the current level of 17,000 bonds sold, the estimated hashrate per bond is 313 MH/s. grnbrg. Did this information has been include in his contract???or just by he posting over the thread? If he going to execute exactly as the contract , this bond is only equivalent as 100MH/s... |
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As previously announced, I have been working on a series of spreadsheets that will allow investors to view all information pertaining to LabRatMining and how the Bitcoin network and exchange rates affect the company. This spreadsheet was developed to add some clarity to the previously vague "Minimum of 100MH/s per bond." I have taken into account all variables involved except reinvestment by the company as this quantity will vary over time. There are fixed costs involved in hosting the equipment as well as variable costs that will determine the amount that will be reinvested. Below is some data that has been calculated given a scenario based around the following assumptions: -BTC/USD = $90.00 -Expected Difficulty at the time of hardware deployment = 45,000,000 -The period of time you wish to measure in weeks = 26 -The percent increase in difficulty per adjustment = 14 Total hashrate in TH for LabRatMining given bond sales6.9 @16,500 bonds sold 8.4 @20,000 bonds sold 13.5 @30,000 bonds sold 18.6 @40,000 bonds sold 24.1 @50,000 bonds sold 29.5 @60,000 bonds sold 35.3 @70,000 bonds sold 41.2 @80,000 bonds sold 47.3 @90,000 bonds sold 53.5 @100,000 bonds sold Individuals hashrate per bond based on bond sales313.86 @16,500 bonds sold 314.34 @20,000 bonds sold 337.22 @30,000 bonds sold 348.65 @40,000 bonds sold 360.86 @50,000 bonds sold 369.05 @60,000 bonds sold 378.71 @70,000 bonds sold 385.96 @80,000 bonds sold 394.57 @90,000 bonds sold 401.48 @100,000 bonds sold Price per GH at given bond purchase price according to bond salesAverage of $42/GH/s (hosting and electric included.) ProfitabilityAverage returns to be expected are likely to be in the range of 70-90% above and beyond the initial investment over 26 weeks. Difficulty ProjectionsIn this calculator I have included the ability to use differing assumptions to estimate difficulty over 26 weeks. These values are included in formulas that may be used to estimate returns. This calculator is complex and therefore comes with a README that can be used to explain the data and formulas. This spreadsheet was made using Excel. You may download the spreadsheet to allow for input of your own assumptions. The fact that these were produced using Excel may cause some individuals to not have access to using the full potential of this calculator, but Google Docs has a built in spreadsheet viewer that will give you the full information based on the assumptions above. Here is the link to access the complete spreadsheet and README: https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0BwZCh0jtSZkwR1A4RS04TkNUcVU&usp=sharingBecause you have stetted a price gap ,there are little hope you will sold your bonds above 0.15... anyway, the calculation above isn't the same , for example : you said 16500 sold would be 6.9 TH in total. which should be equivalent to 418M/M h per bond. but you stated that individual bond has 318.86/Mhash. and the term of 100M/hash rate bond which originally you stated in the contract now become 300M/hash rate.(Is that you manage your contract by just typing it like whatever you like to?) |
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if no one bid up the bonds above 0.16 , then after 12 weeks, according to that BITFURY will delivery its products at earliest on October.
You guys will be burned at 12 weeks later.
We assume network difficulty will continues increase 15% per each adjust date. this equal to 12*7/10=8.4 times
the current 1 Mega/hash is about 0.003 ,recording to DMS.MINING . assume contract value will be decrease upon with the adjustment.
Then it will be 0.003 X (1-0.15)8.4times =0.000766. for 100 M/hash should only worh 0.000766*100=0.0766
P.S: if look back the recent trends of difficulty, it indicated about 20% increase each ten days... Thereby the above calculation is very conservative.
From what you're stating, my bonds at a current minimum value of 300MH/s per bond would pull in at least 0.0766 * 3 = 0.2298 BTC on an investment that costs 0.15 BTC. If the quantity of bonds sold increases, the hashrate per bond follows, but the later purchasers pay slightly more. This would allow for early investors to make more profit, but also increase the company's hashrate maintaining that same profitability through new purchases of bonds. There will also be a sizable re-investment made regularly by LabRatMining further increasing your hashrate. This will in turn increase profitability. So on a worse case scenario according to you, you would make a minimum of your money back +50% and still have the bond in hand to sell at a later date. I don't see anything negative in what you just said. Bitcoin is not a sprint to get rich, it's a marathon to make a profit. If 100000 shares isn't totally sold ,then it only worth 100 millions per bond..Am I right? |
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if no one bid up the bonds above 0.16 , then after 12 weeks, according to that BITFURY will delivery its products at earliest on October.
You guys will be burned at 12 weeks later.
We assume network difficulty will continues increase 15% per each adjust date. this equal to 12*7/10=8.4 times
the current 1 Mega/hash is about 0.003 ,recording to DMS.MINING . assume contract value will be decrease upon with the adjustment.
Then it will be 0.003 X (1-0.15)8.4times =0.000766. for 100 M/hash should only worh 0.000766*100=0.0766
P.S: if look back the recent trends of difficulty, it indicated about 20% increase each ten days... Thereby the above calculation is very conservative.
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