Private investors tend to sell their winners too early and keep their losing investments forever, till broke.      An unfortunate opposite of what should happen if you want to profit and the bias is true enough that it applies across generations.


Its so often true that its worth writing down or engraving even and putting over your desk.   I know I sold my Apple shares too soon and Microsoft, both of them were fairly solid dividend stocks at one point in a cheap bargain kind of way.  Now both run at a premium as most tech shares will tend to rate at vs their faster rate of growth then most traditional companies.

In terms of BTC I dont know holding it all forever is realistic or productive to the wider growth and usage of Bitcoin.   We all owe something to the first users who bothered to mess around with pennies worth for the fun of it like trading cards for fun.

   I dont fit the dead category but the forgotten about 'mistake'  I've done more then once.   In the early days of BTC, price in hundreds and wavering alot I did purchase some goods.   Theres a time limit and after that they assume you didnt want to buy, so sometimes I'd go to pay but it'd arrive too late; a mixup.   In the end my payment is returned back or other means to pay occurred.

  A bit messy anyway thats how I ended up with a small chunk left dormant for about 5 years or so.  That is long enough in BTC to gain alot hence I try not to think myself ever unlucky and always keep a similar amount around.

    I can think of another giant special case, wallets on phones etc.  that whole rabbit hole must be a warren of lost 'investment' by now

It was earlier ok but just now it was navigating various pages but just doing an endless spin on the faucet.  History under multiply didnt show anything either so I presume its not just a page error or in the display, lag etc.  

Just this minute its returned error 502 via cloudflare but:


a different site checker:

That can lead to bad luck from overly expecting immediate results.  Best plan is to play across at least a week not just pile on in one day as its very possible to be unlucky on one day alone.

I would recommend to not allocate all your money purely to one day.   Split up the cash and come back on multiple instances, if however someone cannot win across an entire week then I can fully appreciate they may just give up at that point.

There is probably a common point there in expecting or demanding that the games in gambling somehow make you happy or fill a gap in your feelings at that point.   At this point you are on a bad path because though gambling can make you feel good on a win it cannot replace all the other emotions and needs a person requires.

Anyone who is vulnerable or feeling low in some way should not seek the answer or resolution through a gambling win.  Some days you should rest, visit another day to play your best game when feeling better & this will result in more success.

   The game will never be enough because its not the right kind of solution, this is just money and a game and some things humans feel are far bigger then that.  It will never fill that gap you might feel in that moment.   A candy floss solution if you like, its not a proper meal that will ever fill you; that whole avenue of thought would be a mistake and the individual has to stop themselves making this mistake.

I wouldnt label all of this greed, but it is the wrong fit to make a game cover any negatives you are feeling at that time.  The best strategy a person can take for a better game record is to come to play with your best game on days when you are at your best not when upset in any way.

DCA is correct as BTC remains positive across years but I would disagree about unpredictable behavior as BTC has just been range bound.   BTC might be wild at times in its actions but right now its fenced in hence I dont expect 75k.  To get to 75k would be breaking new ground past prior boundaries set.   We should only expect BTC price action to repeat its pattern within the upper and lower boundaries observed prior, until alot of evidence points otherwise.

Tax and some level of governance would continue anyway, total anarchy is unlikely.   What immediately could happen is a more local system level, in Switzerland I think they have a city state type system.  They still pay taxes but its locally done, taxation, division and spending.

   Its probably no coincidence Switzerland doesnt spend a great deal on giant armies, the terrain has some involvement I think.   I read of one case where the head of a global company got paid so much, his taxes allowed the rest of his community/town to not require any contribution for a year or so.   He must have been popular at that point.

You can measure the potential of a nation by its available working age population, China for example has a falling working population surprisingly.  Its the fallout of their communist policies forcing the end of traditional families, people are a big resource for any country no matter what negatives people might say about the demands of feeding a population the productivity of a person is hard to beat for investment returns.

Its far more complicated of course, I expect China will do well so long as they can increase the efficiency of their economy to follow the demands of a fast moving global economy.   However it will be alot harder to do so having lost the mass production advantage and low cost they would have once had.  China is being undercut in the lowest costs by other countries and that will probably continue as a trend for some time.

Odds looking much better as of this week with such a positive close to the weekly bar it reverses the prior negative outlook.  My idea of a double top formation even if not that serious in its power or amplitude failed, not of great consequence.  From previous experience where a negative play or scenario fails to play out then expect the reverse bounce back to be quite probable

I was wrong about peak Trump odds then, way wrong as this increases the chances easily. Hard to predict this event, it does amount to some negligence on USSS part as even a drone could have covered surveillance better of the overall area and somehow thats not happened.  i do suspect its just a negligence story though.  I'm going to let the dust settle on this one a bit to see where the new picture for this bet lies but its got to have changed considerably now.

Add in the persistent doubts based off Biden's speech hesitancy which he has always had to some extent and I guess it could upset the race bias some from the standing president carrying an advantage over any other contender.

I wont call it a bullrun thats requires a flock of positive movement but we do have consistent gains across the last week now.   The start of a run perhaps, most of the positive action today was in the first hours of the day but price is still within the 12hr average and gaining.

BTC price has now beaten the Fibonnaci level of 58k and also the sell off low of June 24th following some more rapid selling.  Regaining these losses and continuing to gain definitely counts as a positive.

Now the marker to pass and measure continued successful gains would be the lows of the daily bars following June 24th.  That is about 60.2k, if we can that area as a low I would certainly have to side with a positive acting BTC trend but not a bull run as such.   We are still fenced in overall, we just found and reconfirmed support on the lows hence a rise is normal now.

BTC is so far unaffected by the additional volatility check back Monday, if anything this probably does help Trump with his campaign and fits his narrative.   Idiot actions only help muddy the waters further, for the very first time I think Trump has accumulated an equal chance of regaining the presidency.   Thats not happened for a long time, which ex ever came back like that.

  Overall I still dont envisage Trump winning broad support in the magnitude required but the election is now in contention on multiple fronts.  Without recession this will be an unusual mid term election ; hence all of this adds up to volatility which BTC is well acquainted with.

Never play when drunk for just that reason, confidence from the drink will cost you far more then the alcohol was to purchase.   You are giving yourself a bias that does not exist in the game and so inevitably you will lose more because of it.    Easy to say but hard to do when most people are playing for fun in their down time and of course are having a drink at the same time.

I will always argue take some money off the board as you play and also limit the amount of time played so even if you are drunk, tired and very confident about winning again you are limited by your hard rules as to your boundaries of play.  If you are out of bounds, you know you are breaking your own set rules and are probably on the path to a loss for it.

There is no continuous dip at present, there is a range bound market.  Though there has been the threat of a larger move, I was just waiting for 50k but I didnt get it.   What we got is a ping pong match back and forth we go.

Right now market appears serious in its attempt to move past 58k and close above 60k for the weekly bar close which would return us to positivity once again it would be fair to conclude.  It hasn't quite happened yet but its looking like it will at present.

Always look at time frames for reference to behavior as we might be negative in a certain time period but always there is a bigger fish.  BTC remains positive on the largest time frames, mostly because we sold off so hard in prior cycles. We have recovered and continue to do so in that large time frame, however we could say dip when looking closely at these last languishing months but in effect its mostly just waiting and holding for a real direction outside this range.

He should withdraw the winnings and pay his bills and next months rent that kind of thing.  Then the question is over, he has put it to a good purpose and cannot lose it.   Only then put in the same regular amount into gambling that you do every week or month so that you have the hope at least of withdrawing more then you put in.  

To just put the same winnings right back in doesnt mean you lose them, we always live in hope of doubling the winnings but just the idea you might lose what you just won stops me from trying this.  Small in and large out is the ideal bias to setup a profitable experience.  The details of what happens in the game is alot more involved but at least try and give yourself the best chance imo .

EU should be the largest trading partner for Africa because its only a few miles between the southern parts of Spain and the northern coast of Africa which is an entire continent of course.

  Logistics will matter alot there, its far easier for those two trading blocs to swap goods to mutual advantage and that is the base line for regular profitable trade.

If we are discussing trade and oil then its about China really as China lacks oil and also shares a border with Russia.   There is some trade ongoing there but its not to the extent that EU previously traded with Russia for oil and gas; famously Germany decided this was a good idea to be fully reliant before doing a full reverse.   This volatility and lack of foresight was important in the lead up to war imo.

   I personally expect trade to decide this war and the direction of economies and nations in this area.  People have ideals and ideas across a broad spectrum but its quite simply decided by money alot of the time.  Wars are expensive in all respects and not profitable like mutual trade is.

   China needs Russian oil, they have little and this is also true of India though they are more distant but this aspect of supply and demand is a larger factor in outcome determination then other factors.

Instability leads to wars generally, if the FED loses control of the situation then its true this might lead to less space for issuance of debt and leeway on debt costs.   What I would expect is a failed economy precedes a war a bit like the run up to ww2 led to weakness that allowed far extreme politics to thrive.  

Most weakened countries have the appearance of what turns out to be a false strong leader, who is destructive and violent in ruling not just their own country but threatening those on the borders leading to wars usually.  Its not the high rates are bad exactly, they are an attempt to regain control but they often occur and indicate some failure ongoing.

Ironic thing you will win more if less under pressure even from yourself to perform some sort of money making turn around with your gambling.  The win should be a nice surprise then required objective to have fun.  I certainly think people learn better if able to have a mistake without it ruining your day, your week even then you are likely just to be reacting emotional rather observing impartially how best to maximize winnings.

Simple moving averages would be a plain way to follow.   The detail to that indicator is that multiple time frames exist.   People fret and worry about a weeks worth of selling but its the momentum across a whole year that counts mostly.

Right now there is some dilemena that explains the restricted range of BTC every day.   The low prices currently are just above a weekly average, this mostly means presently BTC has a positive trend ongoing.

BTC also remains just below the 200 day average, the most widely followed indicator there is.  Larger time frames will always beat the short term view, just consider the volume of trades across 200 days will be far larger then 7 or 8 days prior.  Not often can we beat the greater time frames, it takes time to do so.

I think the word is being misused here, to be invested in a situation is a valid adjective.  Its in reference to being invested emotionally in an experience rather then coldly performing an action perhaps.

To be have investment in a financial way cannot be applied to gambling on cards or similar.   You are not the owner, you do not receive a yield from an investment.  I think investment in time for an activity can yield results perhaps is a fair use.

I thought for a second this thread was about having some ownership or involvement with the bankroll of a casino perhaps.  That might be a valid reference but I dont even agree with people saying I bought BTC to hold as an investment.

Cant be too surprised at the suggestion because its quite close to the current ideas in the mainstream economy.  Obviously saving is greatly discouraged by current policies of the majority of central banks to target inflation at 2%.  If they had been able to stay at 2% it might be slightly more credible but its also true many countries had 10% inflation recently, its clear the policy is to constantly depreciate those holding or being paid in cash.

I dont think its a joke, they are probably serious in thinking the idea would raise monetary velocity in BTC and so the total net worth is likely to increase.   The problem is we already have instability in currency worldwide, bringing BTC in line with that is not going to be a positive.   I also hope for more active usage of BTC but I see that coming from natural growth in the population while also increasing the ease at which it can be used.  I think the idea also goes against how Satoshi setup BTC originally.