The dump was not caused by Covid-19, it was caused by Bitmex.
Covid-19 can go away, but not Bitmex. Because some cucks believe in something they call "freedom", and they think that having some controls in place is "tyranny".

So, no, I dont think the price will jump quickly to where it was before. It will take a long time to see $10k again. I believe we will not see $10k this year, and bitcoin will never see a ATH again.
Being a long-term holder (since 2015), I'm going to change my strategies and sell a part of my stash when bitcoin arrives at $10k, probably next year.

This bear market will last for at least five years, and might be even permanent, since its being guided by derivatives. The price will bounce between $4k and $12k. There will be no more ATH, no adoption by merchants, no safe haven against the fiat system.

Maybe this time the exchanges start to implement circuit breakers on their own. They are very necessary for a healthy market. In my opinion, exchanges should build a consensus where they compromise on having circuit breakers.

If the guy from Bitmex had not hit the kill switch, the dropping would continue until sub-$1000. Probably Peter Brandt knew what was happening and made that prediction based on this.

Going sideways is no sign we are out of the bear market, quite the contrary. The price would need to recover at least 2/3 of the ATH before calling for a bull market. This is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement after the ATH. Notice that nobody talks about the retracement anymore, the subject died with the bull market. Now its only a matter of "faith", of "believing" that bitcoin will go up. That's why I think the bear market might be permanent, or at least will last for more than five years.

Only collusion through force could remove the paper speculation from cryptospace. Since I dont believe the exchanges will band together to do this, we will need to learn to live with it, and to accept a ATH is no longer possible.

You know what is funny?

When Ifinex was printing tether to boost the bull market in 2017, everybody freaked out. Then you had the tether FUD, based on the view it was morally wrong to print tether when there was no dollar to cover it, even when this was fueling bitcoin's rising to all time highs and prompting adoption by merchants.

But when its Bitmex using its paper contracts to boost the bear market, nobody says a word. And when I say that paper manipulation (futures, options, derivatives, etc) is literally stealing, then people freak out and says this is "normal" market behavior, even when this might hurt adoption of bitcoin in the long term.

Its like people have been programmed to be poor and to accept failure as a default condition of existence.

I blame zerohedge for having been spreading panic among the markets. Several investors check that site for news.

Personally I believed zerohedge was somewhat of a "outsider" to the legacy system, providing a more impartial view of the markets. This "pandemic" proved they are no different than Joe Rogan and Alex Jones.

You can just check it now, most of the articles there are spreading panic about the flu virus, following the mainstream narrative. No wonder investors liquidated their assets and ran to the dollar.

He is right. The window only lasted for some minutes, the bounce was fast and agressive.

And like I explained in another post, below $3k is the zone of the previous cycle recovery and bull run.

Below $3k is as hard to manipulate as above $12k. The $3k mark is the price from 1st August 2017, a historic date for bitcoin, which was when BCH had forked from it. Below $3k is the area from the other bear market, the one from 2013, and the consequent recovery and bull-run.

Those who bought above $3k will likely not sell below it, as it is too cheap.
Those who bought below $3k but didnt suffer the 2013 bear market will also not sell it, as they probably experimented the 2017 bubble and consequent crash.
Those who bought below $3k and did suffer the 2013 bear market have already sold if they wanted to. They are early adopters and if they weren't in DCA the prices from 2018 and 2019 would look high to them.

So its hard to bring the price below $3k. I read that 60 billion dollars were withdrawn from the bitcoin markets in the recent manipulation. The bearwhales will make much less if they dump it to three digits, and might not work after all.

I saw the price touching the $3000s last night, and only lasted a few minutes. People will flock to buy in.

I would be cautious with any shorting. Governments are printing money to cover the crashes and this might reach bitcoin sooner or later.

Dead cat bounce, bitcoin is going back to $3k. Small traders are selling now.
Its not panic, people want to buy cheaper after Peter Brandt prediction.

It touched $3k last night.

Might happen again, but the window is very short.

I was talking about it all this time. I saw the StF ratio curve being moved ahead by those twitter "analysts" last year, and noticed it was a fake run. Then I stopped buying.

There is no more 4-year cycle. This theory was abandoned, FA is not valid anymore.
I pay attention to posts. I remember what was written before and what is being written now. The bulltards are trying to lure people into a way of thinking that I can only correlate to a religion, a cult. You just pray and then bitcoin will be at 100k.

I remember McAfee saying in 2018 that you have to "believe" that bitcoin will go to one million in 2020. Since when someone need to "believe" in bitcoin? I thought bitcoin was a project for a digital currency, which would give back the value which was stolen from people through international debt, debt which was contracted by nation-states.

You can see now I wasn't spreading misinformation. Its the reality. The more people believe, the less it will happen. If bitcoin settles in the 5-15k range, then its just a matter of adjusting, buying between 5-10k and selling between 10-15k.

When I said the price needed 2/3 of the ATH to call a bull run, it was because of the risk of going down the way it did yesterday. At 12k it would be much harder to manipulate the price than it was at 6k (which is half of it). If the bearwhales tried it at 12k, the price would settle around 10k and would exhaust the bearish momentum, thus prompting a bull run. That's why I called it a "transitional" bear market, because it was not clear if there would be a bull run or not.

Now, I'm not going to sell all my stash, because things dont repeat as easily as we think. If the 4-year cycle is not going to repeat itself, maybe these swings could not as well. But something I will have to sell when it goes back to 10k, just in case I need the money in the future, as this bear market might last for much longer than I planned to hold the asset. For now, I consider this the longest bear market in bitcoin history.

Just leaving this here: https://qz.com/1017805/the-world-bank-issued-425-million-in-pandemic-bonds-and-derivatives-designed-so-investors-pay-in-the-event-of-an-outbreak/

So, what do you think? Maybe those investors sold crypto to cover expenses for this obscure fund?

This article is from 2017. At that time, legacy investors started putting money into crypto through hedge funds.

And there is also this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/south-korea-about-unleash-neutron-bomb-across-global-stock-markets


South Korea have one of the biggest bitcoin markets. Cascade effect could have happened there too.

I believe a bull market will only kick in 2022, that is, two years after the halving.

FA got busted, and the StF ratio (which was the pillar of the hodler's creed) was manipulated and pushed ahead, which invalidated the 4-year cycle model. So we will see these swings for quite some time yet, going from 5k to 15k and back.

I'm itching to buy, but I dont know if I should wait a bit more.

I believe we are going to see $3k soon.

There is already a vaccine. Search for "Inovio coronavirus", but dont use google, as it is suppressing the information. This "crisis" was planned since the start.

I've got to tradingview, to try some analysis, but it seems to be impossible.

The manipulation was hard, really hard. There is a single red candle in the coinbase chart, going from 8k to 5k just today. Its a single entity dumping the coins. My guess is it dumping around 10k bitcoins, enough to make this effect in all exchanges. Maybe its something related to CSW court case, but I doubt it.

Also coinbase is leading the dump, the others are following it.

I dont believe people are panic selling. The drop was very sharp and brutal, it happened in 15 minutes.

It was the action of a single bearwhale, or a group of bearwhales.

I believe it will happen again, maybe two times. First will make the price drop to $3000, and second to $1000.

This is what happens when you dont have regulations in the exchanges.

If the exchanges had built cartels, they could self-regulate themselves, stopping shortings after a certain margin, using mining rates as a base. Then, we would not see drops of more than 5% in a single month, whereas the price would be free to rise to whatever value. This would prompt adoption by merchants, which would boost bitcoin's reputation worldwide.

They also would be able to print tether at ease, without having to answer to the "community", which would boost the price even more. The price would be at 100k already.

Instead, they preferred to follow the path of freedom, which includes freedom (for the whales) to steal from small investors.

This is the price you pay for it.