Look, it doesnt make sense. It will cost too much more, have very little to mine and be at the whim of the antminer E3 pricing basically lol.
Most important question. WHY just WHY do u wanna make an FPGA when one asic already controls 64% of GPU mining? A few asics control most of the GPU mining already.
And this FPGA u are doing is just another GPU. Why? Because anyone can do it. U make a slightly stronger GPU known as FPGA. All u need is abit of dumb money going in there and u make no profits due to high difficulty.
In my opinion, interest to FPGA can be short-term, when you need to mine a certain number of coins before the release of ASIC. Like a Groestl, Nist5 and others. But a more fundamental interest may be to offer a useful proof of work function which can also be ASIC-resistant. By setting new standards for the usefulness of the POW function, we will strengthen mining on FPGA in the long term. In the end, someone uses mega-FPGA cards in real life. For what? Amazon AWS earns with them, why not do the same? Summary. FPGA is not workable when one asic controls 64% of GPU mining market. Lets say u use FPGAs and they now control 20% of remaining market via 8 algos. One asic will appear and easily cut it to 15%. They will take the major coin away again... Your FPGA is basically an antminer S7 and when new asic appears, it gets "downgraded" to be an S5. More FPGAs/GPUs will also join in the crowd as u earn less. U may not even be able to be profitable once it gets downgraded to S5. Do note that difficulty increase does not lower profit, it lowers REVENUE. So, u may go negative on mining once it "downgrades to an S5". I strongly doubt it will work because the asics are far cheaper and too much more efficient and majority of the market is centered around a few big algos. This is not yet including the biggest problem which the E3 that can mine eth, which controls 64% of the GPU. It can keep pushing more GPU mining power to the coins u are mining. No point I keep repeating. I find it conceptually just a horrible idea. Hope to see transparency in numbers and figures to brave souls those who attempt this project. Good luck people  I think you don't get it. FPGA are not here to compete with ASIC !!!On ASIC controlled coin, only ASICs can rule. FPGA are here to compete with GPU without the power consumption of the GPU and without the limitation of the ASIC. My 24*1070Ti rig consumes around 3000w. For the same price i can get 2FPGA that will consume 300w and have more than twice the performance. If the example on RVN stands, i would have 600Mh vs 576Mh for 1/10th of the power consumption. At the current rate the revenue difference is 71$ vs 163$. Over a year this is massive and you dont really have to convert your coin to fiat because the electricity cost can absolutely be paid ( 2600$ vs 262$) No, it is u that dont get it. U ARE COMPETING with asics because asics will push difficulty to the coins u are mining. Profit margins for mining are thin these days. It is abit higher right now compared to 1-2 months ago due to recent price spike but that will correct soon as more hashrate enters market. U can always have an alt coin to mine but it is gonna make low or negative returns for u because of difficulty increase, which are pushed by asics from other coins. U know wat. U just wait a few months. The antminer Z9 mini will push gpu miners out of zec and bitcoingold,etc. Those 2 are billion dollar coins. Lets see where those zec/btcgold gpu miners point their GPUs to. All other coins difficulty will go up. And the day a stronger ETH miner appears or the E3 gets sold cheaper, u will see a 78 billion gpu coin aka ETH get heavily flooded by asics. That will be the day u rue not thinking ahead. Your fpga will still work then and have coins to mine, but with very low profit or possibly negative profit. Not sure wat your numbers will be but I dont believe u will be able to get any numbers on the fpga that make sense. Anyways, do write your fpga experiment here perhaps |
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OP said these cards take 100w - 160w.. they'll be profitable on something for a while. People aren't going to mine algos with GPUs that lose money lol From the sounds of it these cards will remain profitable long after GPUs are no longer possible. The arguments here are cost vs hashrate vs GPUs.. but you have to remember that the GPUs will consume significantly more power than the equivalent hashrate of a GPU rig. You're also repeating yourself over and over again which honestly seems like you're attempting to just scare people off from the idea of using these cuz 'muh ASICS are coming for everything'. I think everyones aware of what happens to other cryptos when ETH either goes ASIC or Proof of stake.. the insane amount of hashrate pointed at ETH will move. Markets adapt.. at this point I think a lot of anti ASIC cryptos are getting annoyed with these ASIC companies and will likely create a plan to have backup algos slightly modified to switch to prior to an ASIC being released for their current algo. The current ETH ASIC aren't super awesome. At 800 they're decent but add on shipping an a PSU and it pushes the price up.. they can't just flood the market with these or they'll kill the profitability on ETH and they won't sell more of them or possibly annoy ETH devs to the point they really do fork. If anything the current ETH ASIC is likely just going to put a cap on the profitability of ETH.. when ETH increases significantly and GPUs are scarce they'll be able to dump another round of ETH ASICs on the market essentially capping the profit at a certain point to a certain extent.
i am repeating because it is quite ridiculous. lol, wat adapt when it is 64%. Look GPU is 2500 USD for 180mh and E3 can be as low as 800 USD for 180mh. It is somewhat similar to the S9 vs S7 where the S9 is 3 times more efficient. In this case, efficiency is same but cost is far lower. It really depends on E3 pricing. More expensive and less efficient eventually becomes obsolete or cant break even. There is nothing to gain from scaring anyone haha. If u lot buy into asics, it will increase the network difficulty alot because asics are cheaper on a per hashrate basis. If u lot buy this FPGA instead, it will increase network difficulty far lesser since it is more expensive per hashrate basis. I should be abit happier that more mining money of others will be soaked up for less hashrate. I am not though, doesnt matter to me. I own no GPUs now, juz some asics. Good luck to u and perhaps track your numbers here too ya. |
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Maybe u have too much guts lol. The crazy expensive part is the problem. It is more expensive and less efficient. Versatility just isnt worth it when mining difficulty will go to your coins anyways due to new and current asics. Asic manufacturers can flood the market like crazy. It wont be the first time.
Perhaps u can update on the total expected cost and hashrate of its best coin when u get the info.
guts? heh no not really. but i have no problem tossing 6 grand at an experiment that might bomb. that just makes me a somewhat stupid risk taker. at least if i lose this one im still alive, as opposed to some of my other hobbies. im betting on some coins adopting an anti asic stance. no sense in developing an asic for a coin you know will change the algo for. we will see. i will give all data as to profit/loss etc when i am up and running. Well buddy, last time people ride horse. Now, there are cars. Ok man, will look at your updates then. |
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With 5 asics appearing so far this year to take down 5 gpu coins, it seems they can create a new asic every 30 days now. Thus, it is possible that 90+% of future coins are asic coins.
That's not true. They can release a new ASIC every month only because they started developing them last year. A new algo is safe from ASIC for 6-8 months. Some coins (Monero IIRC) have plans to fork every 6 months. Just the threat of that is enough to deter ASIC development for that algo. It does not matter if new algo is safe for 6-8 months. Difficulty is CONNECTED. An OLD ALGO gets taken over by asic and all the GPU/FPGA miners on that old algo have to go to your new algo coin. Difficulty of new algo go up. Now, the new algo u are mining makes very little, if any. Lets say the old algo has 5-10% of total GPU mining power. The new smaller algo only have 2-3% of old mining power. Wat do u think happens when huge mining power (2-3 times more) moves to the new smaller algo? The new algo coin becomes worthless to mine. The old algo coin that gets taken over will be a bigger coin with more mining power. Asics always target the bigger coin That is why GPUs have been losing market share and thus, are now easier to buy than before. What u are doing with FPGA is just making another GPU lol. A few algos control the GPU market. Thus, a few asics control the gpu mining market. I guess u people just have too much feelings or something. I bid u god luck anyways. All the best. No, it looks like you have strong feelings on this subject Most other posters have a much more pragmatic approach. I've been mining with GPUs and ASICs so I'm quite sure I have a fairly good grasp on how this works. You're dismissing a lot of variables - power consumption, density, forks, exchange rates, etc. BTW the best time to be a GPU miner was when there were cheap GPUs flooding eBay. I dont have such feelings lol. This is kinda obvious. Bitcoin + mining is a small portion of my assets. Just because it works before doesnt mean it works always. It is human nature to be resistance to change though. Those GPUs will be there because it is not profitable to use them. Ok then, I guess it is time to put your money where your mouth is. Perhaps update the cost and hashrate when u buy and program these FPGA then and the profits lol. Lets see. |
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Summary. FPGA is not workable when one asic controls 64% of GPU mining market. Lets say u use FPGAs and they now control 20% of remaining market via 8 algos. One asic will appear and easily cut it to 15%. They will take the major coin away again... Your FPGA is basically an antminer S7 and when new asic appears, it gets "downgraded" to be an S5. More FPGAs/GPUs will also join in the crowd as u earn less. U may not even be able to be profitable once it gets downgraded to S5. Do note that difficulty increase does not lower profit, it lowers REVENUE. So, u may go negative on mining once it "downgrades to an S5". I strongly doubt it will work because the asics are far cheaper and too much more efficient and majority of the market is centered around a few big algos. This is not yet including the biggest problem which the E3 that can mine eth, which controls 64% of the GPU. It can keep pushing more GPU mining power to the coins u are mining. No point I keep repeating. I find it conceptually just a horrible idea. Hope to see transparency in numbers and figures to brave souls those who attempt this project. Good luck people you keep harping on the e3 and sha256 stuff. those are done deals, no ones gonna use a fpga to mine those (or at least long term) thats not why we (or i) would go with this. there are enough non asic algos to make it profitable. part of the fpga strategy us using its reprogramability to move among different algos. basically what gpu miner do now. also i envision we could, if needed, put bounty programs up to get new bitstreams up faster. Those are done but the impact hasnt been felt yet. It will have some impact later and more over time. If u understand, u would sell all your GPUs lol. Nope, it is a fools play. U still have the thinking as long as I have some non-asic coin to mine, i win. Not at all. When more and more of the GPUs push difficulty of those coins u are mining up, u will make a trickle of profit per month on your fpga or possibly nothing. I guess u will realize why most crypto manufacturers dont take this step from the get go. Post your purchase and hashrate perhaps and keep this thread update. |
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============================== What it is already CHECKMATE FOR GPU/FPGA ============================== U just dont realize it. https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/7wufiq/ethereum_is_64_of_all_gpu_mining_by_power_09gw_of/According to this thread, ETH is 64% of all GPU mining power. I always thought it was above 50%. That being said, the antminer E3 is actually checkmate for GPU already. If they just push it down to 800 USD again. Sales of E3 will skyrocket leading to ETH difficulty skyrocket. GPUs will move out of ETH to other coins. Difficulty of other coins will rise too. GPUs will be wiped out and probably sold en mass cheap on ebay. U see, they can manufacture it at too cheaply for gpus to compete. U are actually not competing with your asic competitor with your FPGA. U are at their mercy. I hope u realize this. I am talking about existing asics and not them having to come up with a stronger one yet. FPGA can only win if lets say over 50% of GPU mining power is shared among say 100 crypto coins. Ahhh and then, u would wanna use FPGA because it is too difficult to create 100 different asics to mine 100 different coins. However, that isnt the case in crypto world. Eth holds 64% lol and a few major coins hold most of the other %. That is why crypto manufacturers mostly build Asics. They arent stupid. With 5 asics appearing so far this year to take down 5 gpu coins, it seems they can create a new asic every 30 days now. Thus, it is possible that 90+% of future coins are asic coins. Now, do wise up and stop pointing that small handgun at the tanks and bazookas. U aint gonna win. Oh and u are welcome buddy P.S> U may even wanna consider shorting nvdia and amd stock in july-august before earnings lol. The downdraft should show up by then. Just my 2 cents. you make some good points. i do think you are not taking some things into consideration though, and thats the versatility and longevity of something like this. i will be buying a xupp3r (although i will use ddr400 memory at 1st, as the qdrii+ is crazy expensive). why? its not to compete with asics, you cant. i own none and dont intend to buy any, im GPU only with a power budget of 1500 watts (my self imposed limit, no reason i couldnt do more). its because i want the power efficiency and density that a fpga can give me. plus the versatility. sure any current or new algo can have an asic built, but it will take time. a fpga is more nimble, load a new bitsteam and go. for that period of time on with no asic for the algo, the fpga will rule compared to gpus. also there is no reason a xupp3r cant last for years and still be pretty competitive even against other fpgas. sure new ones may come out that are more energy efficient but not by orders of magnitude. as long as it has the capacity to fit the bitsteam it will be useful. thats why i figure ill go with the xupp3r as it seems the most advanced one of those being discussed here, and it has the most connectivity (link up to 4 of them for any algo thats too large to fit in one unit). plus, i like playing with new tech. give me a reason to learn programming (although i will never be good enough to bang out algos) it will be fun just to play around. Maybe u have too much guts lol. The crazy expensive part is the problem. It is more expensive and less efficient. Versatility just isnt worth it when mining difficulty will go to your coins anyways due to new and current asics. Asic manufacturers can flood the market like crazy. It wont be the first time. Perhaps u can update on the total expected cost and hashrate of its best coin when u get the info. |
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Look, it doesnt make sense. It will cost too much more, have very little to mine and be at the whim of the antminer E3 pricing basically lol.
Most important question. WHY just WHY do u wanna make an FPGA when one asic already controls 64% of GPU mining? A few asics control most of the GPU mining already.
And this FPGA u are doing is just another GPU. Why? Because anyone can do it. U make a slightly stronger GPU known as FPGA. All u need is abit of dumb money going in there and u make no profits due to high difficulty.
In my opinion, interest to FPGA can be short-term, when you need to mine a certain number of coins before the release of ASIC. Like a Groestl, Nist5 and others. But a more fundamental interest may be to offer a useful proof of work function which can also be ASIC-resistant. By setting new standards for the usefulness of the POW function, we will strengthen mining on FPGA in the long term. In the end, someone uses mega-FPGA cards in real life. For what? Amazon AWS earns with them, why not do the same? Summary. FPGA is not workable when one asic controls 64% of GPU mining market. Lets say u use FPGAs and they now control 20% of remaining market via 8 algos. One asic will appear and easily cut it to 15%. They will take the major coin away again... Your FPGA is basically an antminer S7 and when new asic appears, it gets "downgraded" to be an S5. More FPGAs/GPUs will also join in the crowd as u earn less. U may not even be able to be profitable once it gets downgraded to S5. Do note that difficulty increase does not lower profit, it lowers REVENUE. So, u may go negative on mining once it "downgrades to an S5". I strongly doubt it will work because the asics are far cheaper and too much more efficient and majority of the market is centered around a few big algos. This is not yet including the biggest problem which the E3 that can mine eth, which controls 64% of the GPU. It can keep pushing more GPU mining power to the coins u are mining. No point I keep repeating. I find it conceptually just a horrible idea. Hope to see transparency in numbers and figures to brave souls those who attempt this project. Good luck people |
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With 5 asics appearing so far this year to take down 5 gpu coins, it seems they can create a new asic every 30 days now. Thus, it is possible that 90+% of future coins are asic coins.
That's not true. They can release a new ASIC every month only because they started developing them last year. A new algo is safe from ASIC for 6-8 months. Some coins (Monero IIRC) have plans to fork every 6 months. Just the threat of that is enough to deter ASIC development for that algo. It does not matter if new algo is safe for 6-8 months. Difficulty is CONNECTED. An OLD ALGO gets taken over by asic and all the GPU/FPGA miners on that old algo have to go to your new algo coin. Difficulty of new algo go up. Now, the new algo u are mining makes very little, if any. Lets say the old algo has 5-10% of total GPU mining power. The new smaller algo only have 2-3% of old mining power. Wat do u think happens when huge mining power (2-3 times more) moves to the new smaller algo? The new algo coin becomes worthless to mine. The old algo coin that gets taken over will be a bigger coin with more mining power. Asics always target the bigger coin That is why GPUs have been losing market share and thus, are now easier to buy than before. What u are doing with FPGA is just making another GPU lol. A few algos control the GPU market. Thus, a few asics control the gpu mining market. I guess u people just have too much feelings or something. I bid u god luck anyways. All the best. |
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Your discussions omit three important parameters:
1) coin price increases (crowds out diff increases)
2) emergence of new coins & algos (reduces asic dominance)
3) the willingness of large coins to fork to fight asics (reduces asic dominance)
These speak against loss of profitability and arguments against reprogrammable fpgas as well.
these can be reprogrammed if there is a fork yes but it will still take a month or 2. It takes minutes to switch software on gpu.
Also the next generation of gpus 10nm and 7nm will be out this year that will be big efficiency increase for gpu. Its gonna be a while longer for fpga to get to 10nm and 7nm.
the gap will be closing before you are even finished. Mining is moving so quick now.
Good luck.
It seems u dont understand how eth controls most of the GPU mining difficulty and how mining difficulty for GPU is linked. Why dont u guys just go do it and waste your money then. U will not be able to compete on price or efficiency. U will be at the whim of the E3 miner price and u will have very little to mine and that amount will keep decreasing. Also, wat u are doing is nothing proprietary since everyone can just go in and do it. As it is, just a lowered E3 price would mean alot of GPUs add to other coin mining difficulty. Perhaps state wat u spend and wat the FPGA can do here and track your returns. And when u lose money, u will realize why crypto manufactures dont make the FPGA that u are doing. They can do it at a larger scale, at a cheaper rate and easily beat wat u are doing But they wont because it isnt workable or is just too small to bother with. |
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@Sandal_Hat
Don’t pretend the example I gave makes no financial sense; it would be like arguing with someone that 2 is not less than 3, it’s pointless.
Now, I understand what you are saying but you are also conflating the issues. A reconfigurable system that costs less, and consumes 5x less space and energy; but has comparable hash rates for a given algorithm is preferred for mining, and that’s the issue. If such a system exits, it would push out the less efficient system.
As an aside, I know that dollar for dollar in the long run for mining, FPGAs lose to GPUs, and GPUs lose to ASICs, but it doesn't happen overnight
Look, it doesnt make sense. It will cost too much more, have very little to mine and be at the whim of the antminer E3 pricing basically lol. Most important question. WHY just WHY do u wanna make an FPGA when one asic already controls 64% of GPU mining? A few asics control most of the GPU mining already. And this FPGA u are doing is just another GPU. Why? Because anyone can do it. U make a slightly stronger GPU known as FPGA. All u need is abit of dumb money going in there and u make no profits due to high difficulty. |
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don't forget that the price you pay to get an fpga isn't equal the cost to make it . the real question isn't for how much are sold fpgas but how much do they cost to make. So, I would say the key is just ethereum and the E3.
E3 sold cheaply --> Lots of E3 sales --> skyrocket eth difficulty -->ETH GPU power moves from ETH to other coins --> the other coins (36% of mining power) cannot take the huge 64% of mining power from ETH GPUs--> difficulty of all other coins skyrocket --> Low gpu/fpga profits--> GPUs sold cheap en masse on ebay
This, it would be better to just focus on making a better Eth asic. ETH controls majority of GPU mining after all. I would think u cant manufacture it cheaper since u dont have economies of scale. Thus, u have to make it more efficient somehow...if u wanna take on the king.
Just my 2 cents
All premised on - "E3 sold cheaply"? Last time Bitmain increased the price from 800 to 2000 odd. Without even delivering a single one! Bitmain is not going to sell you their money making machine cheap... why should they? because you are americans? you want an impunity rape card with that too? @yrk Bitmain lowered their L3+ price from 2000 to 1500 and to 450. It is now 700+ The D3 was once 5k and then 2.5k and 1.45k and now 311 USD. Yes, 311 USD. They have huge margins on these machines. Wat makes u think u can compete with them on an expensive FPGA? Most important question. WHY just WHY do u wanna make an FPGA when one asic already controls 64% of GPU mining? A few asics control most of the GPU mining |
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The efficiency gap is worlds apart.
A bicycle can never compete with a motorcycle.
Gpus will move out of Zcash
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So, I would say the key is just ethereum and the E3.
E3 sold cheaply --> Lots of E3 sales --> skyrocket eth difficulty -->ETH GPU power moves from ETH to other coins --> the other coins (36% of mining power) cannot take the huge 64% of mining power from ETH GPUs--> difficulty of all other coins skyrocket --> Low gpu/fpga profits--> GPUs sold cheap en masse on ebay
This, it would be better to just focus on making a better Eth asic. ETH controls majority of GPU mining after all. I would think u cant manufacture it cheaper since u dont have economies of scale. Thus, u have to make it more efficient somehow...if u wanna take on the king.
Just my 2 cents
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I am saying it makes no financial sense. The major GPU coins already have asics, with ETH being the biggest. And those coins that have no asic on it will have asics on it before the FPGA will come close to ever breaking even.
And everytime an asic takes over an alternate coin, all the GPUs and FPGAs that were mining that coin will go to a non-asic coin. That means the remaining non-asic coins will have difficulty skyrocket and guess wat, that means your GPUs and FPGAs mining make less money. Everytime a new asic comes out, the FPGAs make less money. So, there is no niche. There is a limited amount to be earned from mining u see. If the asics keep appearing to take some of it, the switchers (FPGAs/GPUs) will have less and less.
Why not u calculate how much it would cost to make an FPGA that can do the equivalent of mining 504mh like the L3+ or 14TH like the S9.
Run your numbers and see the gap. While I dont have the numbers, I dont think it can work.
Anyways, good luck in your endeavors. Maybe I am wrong.
Just my 2 cents
While your point of view is true in general, there are a couple of exceptions: mainly space and power constraints. Let’s be very specific in our comparison to avoid meaningless comparisons, XCVU9P ($4,000 FPGA) vs GTX 1080 Ti ($800 GPU). Now let’s take the Phi1612 algorithm and give the FPGA a more realistic 5x performance advantage against the GPU at a power consumption rate of 150 watts (0.150 kWh). I would rather run a 100 FPGA farm (17.5 kWh) vs a 500 GPU farm (87.5 kWh) any day and here’s why. Lower overall costs if you believe the 5x advantage ascribed to the FPGA. 4x FPGAs and components approx. ($16K + $1.2K) in server chassis and add 100 watts for overhead. 4x GPUs and components approx. ($3.2K + $0.65K) in frame and add 100 watts for overhead. $430K 100 FPGA farm vs $481.25K 500 GPU farm. Can you at least agree that this makes financial sense? No that makes no sense. 481.25k/430k = 12% better only LOL. --------------------- Rough Comparison: ---------------------- And while the E3 does 180mh for 800watts which is comparable to some GPUs, bitmain can sell it for as little as 800 USD if they want to. Thats the price they sold on first batch. To do 180mh, u will need to spend about 2500 on a rig. The asic can be 3 times cheaper For 300watts, u can get 10,000 sol on asic or for gpu, u get say 1,100 sol? Thats 9 times more efficient and the asic is also far cheaper on a per sol basis. If u consider the gap between using gpu to mine bitcoin/litecoin, vs asics, the gap is even bigger. Doing it 12% beter on FPGA isnt a game-changer at all. --------------------- Why FPGA cant win ----------------------- There is a limited amount of money that can be made from mining. Lets say, for illustration, there are 100k of coins released for miners to earn every 10 mins In the past, 10% of all coins are mined by ASICS and 90% by GPUs or FPGAs (aka switchers) Time passes and asics mine 30% and then 50% and then 70% of all total mined coins. Thus, as time pass, the switchers (GPUs and FPGAs), now mine only the remaining 70% and then 50% and now 30% of coins. Hence, as time passes, there will be more and more switchers sharing a smaller and smaller percentage of the mining PIE. The switchers mining profits will just decrease and decrease as the total % of all coins they mine decrease And if a new major coin appears, the FPGA wont mine it long before an asic takes over. The remaining switchers will be sharing a smaller and smaller pool of coins. Thus, they will earn less and less as the remaining pool of coins have their difficulties skyrocket Thus, u gotta be abit mad to think u should invest in more expensive equipment just for that. -------------------- Speed of Asics being developed --------------------- I mean just look at this year. It is only early May and we have a decred, sia, eth, cryptonight and now zcash asic. Thats 5 major algo and at least 5 major coins being taken down by asics. It is like one new algo takes down one major coin a month. Furthermore there might be other asics algo already made, just not released yet. And lets face it, a new major alt coin appears, it will be taken down by asics soon. ------------------- Difficulty wave coming ------------------- Ok, so in June 2018, the E3s will be shipped. ETH difficulty will skyrocket and alot of GPUs will move from ETH to other coins. Expect other coins difficulty to increase. The good news is that E3 price was increased from 800 to 2,100 usd. This means slighty lesser E3 purchased and lesser difficulty increase compared to if it were 800 USD. Do note that E3 price may go down again in future down which leads to more E3 purchases and higher difficulty. The antminer L3+ went down in price and wat occured was a massive litecoin difficulty increase. If the E3 goes down in price, it is gonna take down GPU/FPGA mining even more. Remember, it can be priced 3 times lower than a gpu rig and a far stronger E3 may appear as well. U are pretty much at the whim of bitmain here. ETH is actually the major gpu coin. E3 price down to 800 USD and goodbye to all gpu because all gpu will move to other coins and all other coins difficulty will skyrocket. This will probably occur eventually. The Z9 mini will take down zec/btc-gold gpu mining, period. SIA and Decred are asic owned. Thus, I just dont see how it will work. By right, it was over for gpu when E3 appeared since eth is the major gpu coin. Does anyone know how much % of GPU mining is ETH. Is it over 50%? Asics have clearly won the war. They may very well push GPUs to have 5-10% of total coins being mined in future. I believe u are letting your feelings cloud your judgement. Anyways, good luck to u buddy. Just my 2 cents Your 2 cents are quite interesting but miss the point. What does ASIC resistance is ? Basically, choosing hashing algorithm for which developping ASIC cost a lot and therefore renders mass production unattractive. This was the main point of Cryptonight in 2013/2014, choosing high memory intensive algorithm, to put a physical economical barrier to ASIC developpment (back in the time memory integration on ASIC was very expensive). Given technological progress, in 2017, it seems memory unit are more affordable for ASIC, and we see ASIC of Cryptonight publicly released in ferbruary 2018, and we suspect them to be already mining since july 2017. The major pitfall of ASIC is staticness. Which means that the work it is designed for cannot be updated or changed after. So the new strategy for beeing asic resistant, if to often change POW algorithm. It's a cat and mouse game. So when coin dev choose to change their pow algorithm, like Monero dev did, those expensive and efficient piece of hardware are becoming useless except for blocking door (or targeting minor CN coins for less profit). Some other coin dev choose to not change their pow like BTC did not after ASIC appearance. Like zcash seems to choose also. In that case, it is clearly obvious that ASIC will soonner or later dominate the mining of those coins, any other kind of hardware are far less efficient and more energy consumming. So where is the market for FPGA mining: Basicaly all coins which developpers want to keep ASIC mining away. Most of cryptonight variant for instance, Even if monero change pow every 6 months, every 6 months developpers can release updated fpga file to adapt to new pow. Also all coin which are not attractive enough to invest huge money into ASIC developpment based on exotic POW which can fit nicely in FPGA. Bringing better h/w ratio than gpu/cpu mining. Of course when an ASIC is existing for a coin, and developper dont want to hardfork POW, there is no more room for cpu/gpu/fpga mining. I edited previous post to explain more. Do read the conceptual part. There are too few developers that will fork just to avoid asics lol. The only major that did that is monero. That is why asics which used to command say 10% of all mining, now command maybe 70-80%? Why do u think GPUs keep losing market share to Asics? And it seems u didnt realize that as it is, once the antminer E3 and and antminer Z9 hit the market later, it is going to drive eth and zec/btc-gold,etc difficulty up so high that alot of GPUs will switch to other coins. If the antminer E3 goes down in price, difficulty of ETH will skyrocket. The key lies in antminer E3 price. ETH is too major a coin. They may just decide to cash in later with lower E3 prices. ============================== What it is already CHECKMATE FOR GPU/FPGA ============================== U just dont realize it. https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/7wufiq/ethereum_is_64_of_all_gpu_mining_by_power_09gw_of/According to this thread, ETH is 64% of all GPU mining power. I always thought it was above 50%. That being said, the antminer E3 is actually checkmate for GPU already. If they just push it down to 800 USD again. Sales of E3 will skyrocket leading to ETH difficulty skyrocket. GPUs will move out of ETH to other coins. Difficulty of other coins will rise too. GPUs will be wiped out and probably sold en mass cheap on ebay. U see, they can manufacture it at too cheaply for gpus to compete. U are actually not competing with your asic competitor with your FPGA. U are at their mercy. I hope u realize this. I am talking about existing asics and not them having to come up with a stronger one yet. FPGA can only win if lets say over 50% of GPU mining power is shared among say 100 crypto coins. Ahhh and then, u would wanna use FPGA because it is too difficult to create 100 different asics to mine 100 different coins. However, that isnt the case in crypto world. Eth holds 64% lol and a few major coins hold most of the other %. That is why crypto manufacturers mostly build Asics. They arent stupid. With 5 asics appearing so far this year to take down 5 gpu coins, it seems they can create a new asic every 30 days now. Thus, it is possible that 90+% of future coins are asic coins. Now, do wise up and stop pointing that small handgun at the tanks and bazookas. U aint gonna win. Oh and u are welcome buddy P.S> U may even wanna consider shorting nvdia and amd stock in july-august before earnings lol. The downdraft should show up by then. Just my 2 cents. |
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I am saying it makes no financial sense. The major GPU coins already have asics, with ETH being the biggest. And those coins that have no asic on it will have asics on it before the FPGA will come close to ever breaking even.
And everytime an asic takes over an alternate coin, all the GPUs and FPGAs that were mining that coin will go to a non-asic coin. That means the remaining non-asic coins will have difficulty skyrocket and guess wat, that means your GPUs and FPGAs mining make less money. Everytime a new asic comes out, the FPGAs make less money. So, there is no niche. There is a limited amount to be earned from mining u see. If the asics keep appearing to take some of it, the switchers (FPGAs/GPUs) will have less and less.
Why not u calculate how much it would cost to make an FPGA that can do the equivalent of mining 504mh like the L3+ or 14TH like the S9.
Run your numbers and see the gap. While I dont have the numbers, I dont think it can work.
Anyways, good luck in your endeavors. Maybe I am wrong.
Just my 2 cents
While your point of view is true in general, there are a couple of exceptions: mainly space and power constraints. Let’s be very specific in our comparison to avoid meaningless comparisons, XCVU9P ($4,000 FPGA) vs GTX 1080 Ti ($800 GPU). Now let’s take the Phi1612 algorithm and give the FPGA a more realistic 5x performance advantage against the GPU at a power consumption rate of 150 watts (0.150 kWh). I would rather run a 100 FPGA farm (17.5 kWh) vs a 500 GPU farm (87.5 kWh) any day and here’s why. Lower overall costs if you believe the 5x advantage ascribed to the FPGA. 4x FPGAs and components approx. ($16K + $1.2K) in server chassis and add 100 watts for overhead. 4x GPUs and components approx. ($3.2K + $0.65K) in frame and add 100 watts for overhead. $430K 100 FPGA farm vs $481.25K 500 GPU farm. Can you at least agree that this makes financial sense? No that makes no sense. 481.25k/430k = 12% better only LOL. If u or someone can make a machine that mines ETH 5 times more efficient than a GPU can, u would sell alot of it. It wont need to be an FPGA. ---------------------------- Concept doesnt work ---------------------------- Conceptually, u are paying more for buying it piecemeal wise and paying more for a machine that has algo switching capability. Your competitor gets bulk discount by buying alot at once... AND ... is paying for a cheaper machine, although it can do 1 algo at a time. Your competitor will always go after the major algo (major coin), pushing u out of that coin/algo and forcing u to mine the smaller coins. --------------------- Rough Comparison: ---------------------- And while the E3 does 180mh for 800watts which is comparable to some GPUs, bitmain can sell it for as little as 800 USD if they want to. Thats the price they sold on first batch. To do 180mh, u will need to spend about 2500 USD on a rig. The asic can be 3 times cheaper For 300watts, u can get 10,000 sol on asic or for gpu, u get say 1,100 sol? Thats 9 times more efficient and the asic is also far cheaper on a per sol basis. If u consider the gap between using gpu to mine bitcoin/litecoin, vs asics, the gap is even bigger. Doing it 12% better on FPGA isnt a game-changer at all. --------------------- Why FPGA cant win ----------------------- There is a limited amount of money that can be made from mining. Lets say, for illustration, there are 100k of coins released for miners to earn every 10 mins In the past, 10% of all coins are mined by ASICS and 90% by GPUs or FPGAs (aka switchers) Time passes and asics mine 30% and then 50% and then 70% of all total mined coins. Thus, as time pass, the switchers (GPUs and FPGAs), now mine only the remaining 70% and then 50% and now 30% of coins. Hence, as time passes, there will be more and more switchers sharing a smaller and smaller percentage of the mining PIE. The switchers mining profits will just decrease and decrease as the total % of all coins they mine decrease And if a new major coin appears, the FPGA wont mine it long before an asic takes over. The remaining switchers will be sharing a smaller and smaller pool of coins. Thus, they will earn less and less as the remaining pool of coins have their difficulties skyrocket. Dont be surprised if GPUs get a 5-10% share of coins in future. ----------------------------------- Speed of Asics being developed ------------------------------------ I mean just look at this year. It is only early May and we have a decred, sia, eth, cryptonight and now zcash asic. Thats 5 major algo and at least 5 major coins being taken down by asics. It is like one new algo takes down one major coin a month. Furthermore there might be other asics algo already made, just not released yet. And lets face it, a new major alt coin appears, it will be taken down by asics soon. ------------------------ Difficulty wave coming ------------------------ Ok, so in June 2018, the E3s will be shipped. ETH difficulty will skyrocket and alot of GPUs will move from ETH to other coins. Expect other coins difficulty to increase. The good news is that E3 price was increased from 800 to 2,100 usd. This means slighty lesser E3 purchased and lesser difficulty increase compared to if it were 800 USD. Do note that E3 price may go down again in future down which leads to more E3 purchases and higher difficulty. The antminer L3+ went down in price and it lead to a massive litecoin difficulty increase. If the E3 goes down in price, it is gonna take down GPU/FPGA mining even more. Remember, it can be priced 3 times lower than a gpu rig. A far stronger E3 may appear as well. U are pretty much at the whim of bitmain here. ETH is actually the major gpu coin. If E3 price down to 800 USD again, it is goodbye to all GPU/FPGA. The Z9 mini will take down zec/btc-gold gpu mining, period. SIA and Decred are asic owned. Thus, I just dont see how it will work. By right, it was over for gpu when E3 appeared since eth is the major gpu coin. Does anyone know how much % of GPU mining is ETH. Is it over 50%? Asics have clearly won the war. They may very well push GPUs to have 5-10% of total coins being mined in future. I believe u are letting your feelings cloud your judgement. Anyways, good luck to u buddy. Just my 2 cents |
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Just my 2 cents speculation
the point is not to compete with asics... as we have seen recently any coin with a large marketcap is going to have an asic implemented after some time. the point is that an asic will only ever work for that algorithm. an fpga can do <within reason> many many kinds of algorithms, you just need to program it. i assume the people who know fpga's can look at a coins algorithm and whip up a miner similar to how people cook up gpu miners for cpu only coins. your gravy would be any algo that you could implement efficiently onto an fpga that no one is going to make an asic for. Yes, I get the point. But if your FPGA cost $2000 USD and can do 500 hashrate while the asic cost 400 USD and can do the same 500 hashrate, u are still screwed. U will switch to other coins but so will all the FPGAs and GPUs. Those other coins that are not yet touched by asics will then have their mining difficulty skyrocket due to all the FPGAs and GPUs going there. Basically, u will lose on a cost per MH/TH basis by too much even if u can match the asics efficiency. And looking at the speed in which asics appear on new coins these days, I dont see how that can work. This looks pretty sucidal. Just my 2 cents speculation you cant compare them. the asic will do what an asic does, so you compete on every coin without an asic and you compete vs gpus and cpus. *edit to add, if you gain yourself a nice niche and an asic does happen to come out, you just go be the king of some other anthill of an algo that isnt asic implemented yet. theres no point trying to make your fpga be as fast or faster than an asic. I am saying it makes no financial sense. The major GPU coins already have asics, with ETH being the biggest. And those coins that have no asic on it will have asics on it before the FPGA will come close to ever breaking even. And everytime an asic takes over an alternate coin, all the GPUs and FPGAs that were mining that coin will go to a non-asic coin. That means the remaining non-asic coins will have difficulty skyrocket and guess wat, that means your GPUs and FPGAs mining make less money. Everytime a new asic comes out, the FPGAs make less money. So, there is no niche. There is a limited amount to be earned from mining u see. If the asics keep appearing to take some of it, the switchers (FPGAs/GPUs) will have less and less. Why not u calculate how much it would cost to make an FPGA that can do the equivalent of mining 504mh like the L3+ or 14TH like the S9. Run your numbers and see the gap. While I dont have the numbers, I dont think it can work. Anyways, good luck in your endeavors. Maybe I am wrong. Just my 2 cents Sounds like you should probably just stick to GPUs and ASICs, leave the real profits to the people who understand this stuff. I understand it fine lol. Why not run your numbers and see for yourself. I get the idea that some of u guys dont like asics and want a holy grail badly but the concept makes no sense. There is a limited amount of money to be earned in mining by all equipment. |
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Bitmain is currently preparing the shipment. I already see that an order has been sent to UPS. Today, some miners would have to be shipped.
Attention to all who have ordered with DHL (Germany) There are problems with the import to Germany DHL does not let the miner through customs.
Yeps, mine shipping today too. |
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Asic coins like bitcoin and litecoin are decentralized. It will be the same for this. To be fair, they purposely made it 1 miner per account to help decentralization as it is.
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That doesnt make sense. Both are on 28nm right? |
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How are u able to do research when the miner is not even delivered yet?
What sorcery is this?
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