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2241  Economy / Speculation / Re: OH MY GOD! on: February 14, 2014, 12:13:21 AM
It's real, only a few pixel rows missing from the bottom. Uncanny... I hope it won't go that low, it would overrun my bids...  Roll Eyes
2242  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin at 470! on: February 13, 2014, 10:11:28 PM
I didn't believe that the bid sum on MtGox would drop below 10M$ during this bear market, but it just did.
As I write this, the price is still above the December 2013 low of 455$, but I think it will go lower.
2243  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: February 13, 2014, 09:44:41 PM
That's the problem: if all speculators leave, then bitcoin would drop to it's real value, which is currently under 100$ IMO.
Speculators leaving is going to happen on a small scale in the coming months, like in the previous bear markets.
2244  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: February 13, 2014, 09:35:18 PM
So far, bitcoin has had little competition from other crypto-currencies. This may change in the future, considering that
now it's worth a lot of money to have a successful crypto. Apple may launch one, Google may launch one, both could have cute mascots.
Bitcoin is just the first and a good one, but not perfect. And against the marketing power of Apple or Google, bitcoin would eventually lose.
2245  Economy / Speculation / Re: What was a more rediculous bubble 2013 $1200s or 2011 $30s? on: February 13, 2014, 09:29:43 PM
Nope, bitcoin bubbles don't work this way. Based on historical data (except the starting 2011 bubble), the top is about 15x - 20x
the bottom from which is starts. So with a bottom of 100$ - 300$ for this bubble, the top of the next could be in the 1500$ - 6000$ range.
2246  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2014, 06:44:42 PM
Total bid sum on Gox is approaching $10 million. Wasn't btc around $100 last time there was that much on the order book?

True, but there were a lot more coins for sale. It's not yet the case. And on Bitstamp the bid side is still impressive.
2247  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where's all the optimists? on: February 13, 2014, 06:25:01 PM
Help, somebody kidnapped the real Proudhon and is posting in his name!  Grin

I will be optimistic once the market will hit the bottom of wave C, and it's still months away.
My primary concern is if the attacks on the network will continue and if one of them will be really damaging.
Maybe those perpetrating the attacks just want very cheap coins, but - worst case scenario - they might
want bitcoin dead. So far, the core devs and exchanges' staff don't seem to win this battle.
2248  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: February 13, 2014, 02:27:22 PM
Based on this I have realised that my bid at $2.9 was probably a bit low and have moved it up to $3.6, just above the .5 retracement  Grin

 Huh

IMO the market is about to end the first 1 / 3 of wave C. But I'm not sure if the dumping has finished for now or not.
The inverted disparity between exchanges is confusing my analysis. Bitstamp seems to have not dropped enough yet,
for the rebound that will follow (the upward 2 sub-sub-waves of the middle 1 / 3 of wave C) to be large enough.
MtGox seems to have has dropped too much to take another large drop before the rebound, and any significant rebound
would require resuming BTC withdrawals, after fixing the wallet malleability vulnerability. A fix may be available sometimes next
week, but in the meantime the market may panic further. For now the attack itself has been halted, since it has reached it's
targets, but it may resume when the exchanges will allow BTC withdrawals. Clouded the future is...
2249  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where's all the optimists? on: February 13, 2014, 02:03:15 PM
They'll be back as soon there is some green on the daily, shouting "CCMF".

I keep seeing this 'CCMF' and I still have no idea what it means.  Google suggests it is Community Concern for Mental Fragility, which seems about right.

It means choo-choo-mofo, sometimes accompanied by to-da-moon (or is it Mars now?).
There is a choo-choo, but currently it's going downhill. This doesn't exclude some nice rebounds.
2250  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: bitstamp btc withdrawal problem on: February 13, 2014, 09:15:19 AM
48 hours.  No BTC received, no BTC added back to balance, and support answered with a full quote of the news release.

No BTC added back to balance (well, not yet), IMO that's worse than MtGox. Why is the Bitstamp price still so high?
Right now it seems stampBTC is not better than goxBTC...
2251  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: February 13, 2014, 08:35:38 AM
The 500$ wall was partially eaten, partially pulled. Not let's see how deep it falls.
The last brick of the wall was 500 BTC buy. 120 were eaten, the rest pulled.
And now it's back. This is going to be fun to watch.

The replenishment of the 500$ wall got eaten and now there's a sell wall at 500$.
2252  Economy / Speculation / Re: Another Bitcoin Flash Crash Imminent? on: February 12, 2014, 06:53:13 PM
Wow guys, you are more bearish than me! I've put my lowest bid yesterday at 111$ and give it a 1% chance to get filled.
Well, unless the BTC-E history repeats itself on other exchanges...
2253  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Who is mutating transactions? on: February 12, 2014, 04:40:08 PM
OK, you have a point, it's not illegal to mutate bitcoin transactions. But the operation isn't zero-cost,
so I assumed that someone is doing this for a profit (whatever that is), and that is probably illegal.
Could be someone who wants to undermine the whole bitcoin concept, like a competitor, in which case
it's unfair competition, or just some hackers that scammed MtGox for thousands of coins (I wish they would clarify this).
2254  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin development problems on: February 12, 2014, 01:16:50 PM
Who pays the devs? 

(I assume the answer is no one).

The core devs are probably loaded with bitcoins, so it's in their best interest to fix the malleability issue asap,
and also help the incompetent staff at the exchanges (mostly MtGox, but not only) fix their wallets, before the
market mass panics and we'll see double digits.
2255  Economy / Speculation / Re: Up from here? on: February 12, 2014, 12:04:11 AM
maybe not this week or this month, but I believe there will be sub $300 coins again. We just had them yesterday. I believe going sub $200 is more likely than breaking $1200 during 2014.
News are not good. Too many people still too bullish, with massive paper profits. I think this cries out for another capitulation event

Quoted for posterity. I see we're approaching despair.

No, we are months away from despair. Well, unless the market collapses with huge volume, but that seems unlikely right now.
IMO the current stage is greed turning into fear. But the fear is mostly due to the malleability attack, not to normal market movements.
2256  Economy / Speculation / Re: Up from here? on: February 11, 2014, 09:30:15 PM
Actually, after the market will hit a local bottom (maybe it already did, maybe not, I'm not sure), the market should experience
a rebound similar to the one in 2013, between 4th May (80$) and 27th May (136$), after which it should go down again, and again, and again.
But the looming problem of the mutated transactions and BTC withdrawals suspended may distort the 'normal' EW behavior.
2257  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: February 11, 2014, 07:13:52 PM
Could it now start to be looking like final capitulation or something? At least there is quite big volume for this past week and if you zoom enough out on the chart it looks like it just might have been long enough to go up. I tend to think that the cycles of rallies are getting faster and more close to each other and on 3day and 1week charts it looks something like last april and beyond that on faster speed?

The local bottom that the market is experiencing now (or maybe tomorrow) will only be the end of 1 / 3 of wave C. In 2013, it happened around 3rd May at 80$.
After this bottom, there should be 2 ascending sub-sub-waves, 3 descending, another 2 ascending and then the final capitulation, the last 3 sub-sub-waves, with much despair.
But a market collapse due to mass loss of confidence could mess up the wave structure. Let's hope the current issues will be sorted out quickly. I don't want very cheap coins.
2258  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 11, 2014, 07:03:29 PM
Why is Gox price so low? Because you can't withdraw coins!

Why is stamp so high when you even can't withdraw coins?  Grin

Because ppl have more faith in stamp then gox.

What if we see stampBTC for real BTC desperation on the marketplace.  Cheesy

How about goxBTC for stampBTC?
2259  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 11, 2014, 07:01:31 PM
I'll report directly to you when there is an exchange that I trust sending any form of money to, until then avoid them all. Wink
A Holliday seal of approval? I'll opt in for that, but I am afraid I will possibly not never get to hear back on this matter. Cheesy Cheesy

I forgot to accuse one particular shill and downplayer of problems: Andreas Antonopoulos. Only yesterday had I realized he was the same Andreas I always liked to listen to long ago on Let's Talk Bitcoin. Shame what a Bitcoin cultist he bcame, even if he is no less intelligent today.
"Without MtGox, Bitcoin would have never made it"

Who is the shill round here?

 Grin

Blitz is right on this, without MtGox bitcoin wouldn't have taken off. That MtGox management / staff are still largely incompetent after several years, it's another issue.  Grin
2260  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 11, 2014, 06:58:45 PM
I wonder WHO/WHERE  the attack is coming from ?

JP Morgan
MtGox
Putin
China
Fonzie's mum
NSA
Some 14 year old in Rio
Mini Putin (you know he has got one)
A bunch of c.......


I already made a thread on this, link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=459887.0

The only useful answer so far:

A few possibilies:
1. Someone creating FUD to buy cheap coins (probably scammed mtgox first)
2. Banks/NSA try to damage bitcoin (but why would they start with mtgox related txs?)
3. A competitor like Ripple, Nxt or Ethereum
4. Mtgox trying to make it look like a general problem (but I highly doubt that)

You need a lot of well connected nodes to be faster than mgox, btc-e, bistamp, coinbase...
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