Confirmed. However, their PR is clearly better than Gox's. So we can't say 'stamped', well ... not yet. |
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It seems that the mutated transactions attack is intensifying, and is not limited to MtGox, but spread to the whole network.
May I ask how could someone know in advance that the price is going to drop so sharply (on BTC-E at least), and because of this attack?
If this attack continues / worsens, then maybe the OP knows who is perpetrating it, or even he may be involved.
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Guys, you are not helpful... I asked this in the speculation sub-forum and it was moved here.
The newest info is that the problem is not limited to MtGox, but is an attack on the whole network.
Someone is spending time and money sustaining this attack, and probably hopes to get huge returns.
Market confidence may be broken badly if this is let to spread and persist. I'm a bear and want cheaper coins,
but not single digit ones. Now, is it possible to trace the source of this attack?
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I don't think you folks quite appreciate the psychology of the moment yesterday. I was trading on BTE-e when that sell went through. I had BTC-e's trading page open in one Browser windows (Safari 5.1.10, MacbookPro 2009) and Bitcoinwisdom 5-minute chart in another. Trollbox had been on hyper yellow alert all night due to waiting for the Gox announcement. When the announcement came through, there were a couple of minutes of general discussion before trollbox trollers started screaming that the Bitcoin protocol was broken. This rapidly became the concensus in a period of about 3-5 minutes of frenzy. At the same time, the price started plummeting from around 710 to 600 in the space of a few minutes. People were dumping like crazy - you can see it if you go to the 30m chart here http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/btcusd - those 2 big red candles around 11 O'Clock GMT yesterday. I managed to dump 1 BTC at around 610 (after frantically liquidating PPC and XPM just to get into some fiat) and just then I saw the price ticker on Bitcoinwisdom display $300, then $110 which lasted about 10 seconds. That kind of sealed it for me that BTC was "finished" but since I've only ever got a small amount on the exchange, I decided just to sit back, watch the show and accept whatever losses were coming my way. Obviously the rest is history as it turned out, BTC wasn't broken and once this started filtering through, a buying frenzy began and it leapt back up to 620 in no time making it very difficult to get back in unless you placed orders about $30 above the current price to give yourself a few seconds lead time on the order book. To me, the $100 trade was just a panic sell - plain and simple. Things were happening so fast that everyone was trying to offload faster than everyone else. The price dropped $150 in less than a minute so I'm not suprised that someone with a lot of BTC to offload might have simply been trying to minimise their losses by buying up everything left on the order book before the crowd did. The only way you can do that is to put your ask in very low and let the trading engine pick up all the remaining bids for you on the way down to that base price. It really did look like it was potentially going to $100 (or zero) over the next 5 minutes. I don't think there's any need for people to start turning themselves into an army of crypto-market Columbos over this episode when a perfectly plain explanation is staring us in the face. Assuming the epic drop was just a mass panic sale, it could be a glimpse into the future. When the market mood will be at it's lowest (at the very bottom of wave C) this support level might get tested again on BTC-E. |
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I have to ask this question, because nobody asked it yet. Someone (a group?) with technical abilities and some serious hardware
has been scamming MtGox of (many?) coins, resulting in them deciding to stop the BTC withdrawals until they (allegedly?) will fix the problem.
Now that the main target is not available, the scammer(s) may try the same on other major exchanges, like Bitstamp and BTC-E.
Right now I don't know if those exchanges are as vulnerable (or not at all) as MtGox to this exploit, and it would be good if they would clarify this.
Back to the OP, the scammer(s) did something illegal and while MtGox's management / technical staff should take a lot of blame, for not
fixing this without waiting for a general fix from the core developers, it seems no one cares about those who are at the root of the problem.
So I am asking again, who could be at the root of the problem (mutated transactions), please speculate and maybe a suspect will eventually emerge.
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In purportedly owing their customers (correct me if I'm wrong) ~68,000 BTC, Mt. Gox has a very large financial incentive to see the market tank.
Do you think this incentive will play itself out, or are there any indicators to suggest it has already?
The 68k BTC may be the amount of BTC stolen / scammed from MtGox through the exploit of the vulnerability in their wallet. I would expect them to get dumped on other exchanges, maybe some already were. |
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...send a chill up many a spine of the wholesale Bitcoin holder...
That's how I felt when I saw that drop to 102$ on BTC-E. And I've been 100% fiat for quite some time. I was expecting this drop since mid January and wanted to buy back close to this bottom and sell close the top of the rebound. Now I'm waiting to see what happens next, I'm not sure if the market has hit a local bottom or not. |
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Gavin Andresen Feb 10 2014
The issues that Mt. Gox has been experiencing are due to an unfortunate interaction between Mt. Gox’s implementation of their highly customized wallet software, their customer support procedures, and their unpreparedness for transaction malleability, a technical detail that allows changes to the way transactions are identified.
Transaction malleability has been known about since 2011. In simplest of terms, it is a small window where transaction ID’s can be “renamed” before being confirmed in the blockchain. This is something that cannot be corrected overnight. Therefore, any company dealing with Bitcoin transactions and have coded their own wallet software should responsibly prepare for this possibility and include in their software a way to validate transaction ID’s. Otherwise, it can result in Bitcoin loss and headache for everyone involved.
The Bitcoin core development team has worked to limit transaction malleability. There is broad agreement in the community that this needs to be eliminated. Finding the best and most responsible solution will take time. In the meantime, users of the reference implementation do not need to be concerned. Transactions are always tracked properly by the Bitcoin-Qt/bitcoind software.
This is a good reminder that Bitcoin is still young and experimental. There are best practices to think about and account for by those who want to build companies. To help improve both the reference implementation and third party software, the Foundation is committed to working with companies to produce best practices to help improve software.
---------------------------------
It would be interesting to find out if other exchanges' wallets could be affected by this vulnerability.
Maybe others didn't wait for the core developers to correct it, like MtGox did, and implemented it correctly. Or maybe not?
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If it hits $400 or lower on stamp/BTC-e on or before 12-31-14 I will pay you. If not I will be paid 01-01-15. We will do escrow. Willing to bet 1-100 BTC on this. PS: If you are taking me up on this bet you are stupid and making a very big mistake  . People, please stop proposing bets. This is bitcoin, it can go both up and down a lot. But I'm really curious to know if that huge dump to 102$ on BTC-E was a fluke (mistake?) or the dumper(s) knew something. |
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IMO MtGox should clarify how many bitcoins were stolen (scammed may be a better word) from them using this vulnerability that they didn't patch against.
They probably still have about a hundred thousands of coins in reserve, so they can cover the theft, but it would be good to know the magnitude of the problem.
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Someone dropped the stolen coins from GOX and dumped all of them on btc-e He even had a few low buy orders to launder part of the money/coins. That's what I thought too, but after seeing the huge volume at abysmal low prices at anxhkHKD, I'm not so sure anymore. |
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Holy shit! 53% of market share overnight! And at 20$ / bitcoin ?  Those coins sold so low will be transferred and dumped onto western exchanges. I'm not buying back anytime soon. |
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Young padawan, you have much to learn. During wave C the market experiences more bad news than good news, and digests them poorly.
My guesstimate was based on the drop to 455$ in December 2013, adjusted by the amount of new fiat that entered the exchanges.
On Bitstamp, in the meantime, more fiat entered than on Gox, and the extra coins from Gox were absorbed, so it didn't drop as much yet.
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My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.
You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong. What were your calls in September? Let's see how my prediction of the 17th January turned out: It took much longer than I expected, mostly because of the low volume. In the meantime, on Gox those players cashing out via Bitcoins caused the fools' rally of January 25th, and then depressed the price on Bitstamp and BTC-E. But now my prediction came reasonably close to reality, only Bitstamp looks now more bullish than I expected. But the drop to 102$ on BTC-E was epic! I am not sure if this is the bottom of the first 1 / 3 of wave C, so I'm not trading, because just one whale dump could overrun my positions badly. |
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Probably the hackers who stole bitcoins from Gox dumped them on BTC-E.
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The news from MtGox say that the bug is in the bitcoin software, and not exclusively in MtGox's wallet.
This is the worst news in recent history, and the impact on the market could be comparable to the 2011 hacking of MtGox.
The way I read it is that it's a known issue but it hasn't caused any real problems so far. Now it has, so now they have to fix it. It doesn't seem to require a hard fork or anything like that, so I really doubt the impact will be comparable to the 2011 hacking event. We don't know how long it will take to fix it. I'll keep an eye on the Developer section, but for now nothing on this issue. In the meantime, the coins stolen from MtGox (and possibly other exchanges) by exploiting this security flaw are probably going to be dumped or spent. The market was already in bear phase (wave C), but a mild one. With confidence broken, it could turn into a harsh one. |
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This is actually good news
WTF are you smoking? IT IS good news, for the bears! The bid sum on MtGox is evaporating quickly, it's going to be a stampede... |
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The news from MtGox say that the bug is in the bitcoin software, and not exclusively in MtGox's wallet.
This is the worst news in recent history, and the impact on the market could be comparable to the 2011 hacking of MtGox.
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