The blind panic was specifically caused by the DDOS in that case. Thankfully MTGox servers are coping with this small sell off today. There is no blind bids here.
And what was this panic in 2011 caused by? The panic selling is caused by multiple weeks of parabolic price action. Any other factors like news or order delay only serve to quicken/deepen it. Human psychology is always the same. That's right. Price action causes price action. Exactly. People see it growing SO FAST and their profits increasing SO MUCH that they start fearing a deep crash as quick as fast was the growth. As you say, its just human psychology at work. Panic sells are basically triggered by the price going down fast, which in first instance can be triggered by some news (like the chain fork), but 99% of the times is just triggered by the dump of someone taking profits - no more, no less. |
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I've just been buying all the way down.
Buying all the way down in increasing size (and selling all the way up) is a good strategy, you need to have some money for that though. ^^ Panic selling and hoping you can buy more coins at the bottom is not, that is more like gambling. Well my strategy has been, sell 50% of my BTC yesterday as I saw this coming and then buy up BTC all the way down on this panic sell. I'm almost totally back in again and look, the price is rising. Not all my efforts but glad to be of assistance  I don't think you know what panic selling really is. There has been none so far. True. Last time panic sellers did their thing was on April, 16th. Oh boy, that week between April 10th and April 16th... There was some real panic selling going on, on Wed Apr 10th there was a $10 bid/ask spread, 3 hours in a row of blind market sells with +20 minutes lag... Since mid April I would say that we didn't have a single episode of panic selling. Some dumping, yeah, last week of of April we also had some nice red candles... But panic? Nowhere to be seen since months ago. The blind panic was specifically caused by the DDOS in that case. Thankfully MTGox servers are coping with this small sell off today. There is no blind bids here. Never bought that crap. The blind panic was caused by the price rapidly crashing, let's be honest... Were you scared by the lag or by Gox's page going up & down? Seriously? No you weren't, admit it, because nobody was. Another concrete example: a couple of days ago Gox stopped working for hours. Did you see any panic when it came online again? I'm sure that DDoS crap causing panic is BS, and in fact IMO Gox going down because of DDOS/lag on April 10th actually slowed the crash, as people couldn't connect and market sell, the page just didn't work... And then Gox did its magic "market cooldown", just to try to stop the crash. I was actively trading that day, I will never buy that fairy-tale story about DDoS that trigger crashes. |
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I've just been buying all the way down.
Buying all the way down in increasing size (and selling all the way up) is a good strategy, you need to have some money for that though. ^^ Panic selling and hoping you can buy more coins at the bottom is not, that is more like gambling. Well my strategy has been, sell 50% of my BTC yesterday as I saw this coming and then buy up BTC all the way down on this panic sell. I'm almost totally back in again and look, the price is rising. Not all my efforts but glad to be of assistance I don't think you know what panic selling really is. There has been none so far. True. Last time panic sellers did their thing was on April, 16th. Oh boy, that week between April 10th and April 16th... There was some real panic selling going on, on Wed Apr 10th there was a $10 bid/ask spread, 3 hours in a row of blind market sells with +20 minutes lag... Since mid April I would say that we didn't have a single episode of panic selling. Some dumping, yeah, last week of of April we also had some nice red candles... But panic? Nowhere to be seen since months ago. |
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My take is as long as we don't break new lows, we're still ok. Below $88, even a little, and we're fucked
No, we are not fucked. We are cool. The cheaper the coins are, the more you can buy. Obviously you need a handful of fiat for that. I have it prepared, do you?  I bought my stack at $10. Have fun with your fiat Your average entry price could be $5 (or $3!) instead of $10 if you had sold and re-bought cheaper. My first bitcoins were also bought at $10ish and while I'm 90% out ATM, if I'd bought back now I would have 50% more of what I had initially, which is a "win" in my book, because I play this game to be able to buy as many BTC I can with my limited fiat. What I mean is that nobody is "fucked", the market is just doing what is expected to be doing after a bubble inflation (going down), fighting the market and just hold forever is cool if you do not give a f*ck about the short&mid term price... But then you are not "fucked", who cares about breaking $88 if you look at the long term?, If you are looking to actively increase your profits/BTC stash by trading the only sound strategy in this scenario (bear market, bubble deflation, etc.) is to sell and buy cheaper. |
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ASIC miners shares started around 0.84BTC, their perceived value is currently around 3.5BTC. It is perceived by those willing to purchase ownership. ASICminers value is still around 0.84 BTC as that is all they're owed for themselves to spend. The 4x increase on resale has been well received by the original investors. New ones won't see that. At a dividend payout of 0.025BTC on average every two weeks, it would take 5.4 years to ROi on ASICminer shares currently.
Sorry, where did you take the number in bold? You have to be quite new in the scene if you don't know that ASIC miner shares started at EXACTLY 0.1BTC (that was the IPO price), and their shares were traded below 0.84 BTC for quite a few weeks even after they started deploying. To be very concrete I just looked into my PM history for you, and exactly on February 11th three members of these forums (rxw, punin and scrypt) offered to me ASICminer shares between 0.36 BTC and 0.5 BTC each. I remember very well that moment because I turned their offers down as those prices looked to me "a tad expensive". Quite a big mistake, as I was very interested in buying, but I didn't. But yeah, hindsight is 20/20. Going back to the real world figures, the increase on resale of ASICminer shares is x35 (and going up), not the laughable x4 you mentioned. |
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Looks like bears are getting ready to assault $92.2 and kill it for good, next stop $88. IMO bulls already know they lost the battle for $88, but it may bounce a little.
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Today is July 1st . My cloud hashing contract starts today. Details to follow. I am supposed to be paid bi weekly. My hash rate is supposed to be 6gh stating today. It is supposed to jump to 7.5gh on sept 1st. On the good side if they start count from today 6gh should make about .14 coins today.
I will post in 2 weeks as I am to be paid biweekly. So far the website does not offer much info other then the fact I have a July 1st contract.
Good luck with that. Now they will come up with a BS excuse about delays from manufacturer, etc., and that you will be made whole in the future. Sure. BTW, you did a very bad choice by investing in a clear scam. |
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It's hilarious that some people think data - i.e., lagging indicators - is useless. In that case looking at charts is useless. Seeing that the price has gone up or down in the past is useless.
I guess the fact that people have used money as a means of exchange in the past has no bearing on whether they will use this new thing called bitcoin in the future, right?
Nobody said data is useless. We are saying that google searches or forum activity follow the price, and not the other way around. The higher gets the price, the higher go the google searches. As soon as an ATM is broken, there you have parabolic growth in google searches. You don't even need to look at those charts, you know how they look on beforehand. |
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False. I recently requested 3 withdrawals, SEPA, 5 figures each, and they arrived to my account in 2/3 days.
Gox has tens of thousands of customers, if all the SEPA transfers had such delays we would see a shitstorm going on in these forums, while we still have $11M on Gox order book and trading goes on despite the low volume. Following my own personal experience, the delays are an exception, and I think if they weren't we would see panic, which we are not seeing
oh boy, you're so full of shit  Why? I'm sharing with you my own personal experience. Then you are a privileged customer, I am already waiting for a month and a half for my last withdrawal, still hasn't arrived. I wonder why some wires go through so fast, while others not. Puzzling. BTW, I'm fully verified including notarized docs sent by regular post. |
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Both Google trends and forum activity are lagging indicators. Quite nice to picture the current situation, and to compare "today" with "yesterday", but complete useless anything else.
All data are lagging indicators. All. So you are saying data is useless? You got it wrong. Those indicators are lagging (and useless to predict future price) because both forum activity and Google searches are driven by price, and not the other way around. |
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I feel we need to be concern if " any company that has yet to announce any mass ordering of chips from foundries now or a few weeks earlier, we may be worry and anxious if they could deliver on time. like "Rampion" says we need to know whether the Chips has been order?? [b]They only need to let us know if the Chips has been order to calm all our nerves.[/b] " Sounds like from their latest newsletter they are still tweaking the Asic Chips??
I obviously agree with you. From kncminer last post in this thread we understand that the chip order has not been placed yet, as they are still discussing with the fab "how much", while they find out "how many". I guess that's why they extended again the payment window, they need people to pay, and that's why they didn't cancel the unpaid orders as they say they would have done weeks ago. Anyhow, they say we shouldn't be worried because they are meeting all the deadlines, but to be honest I won't be confident until there is a precise chip ETA. |
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False. I recently requested 3 withdrawals, SEPA, 5 figures each, and they arrived to my account in 2/3 days.
You are a very lucky man then, i'm still waiting after 7 days for a little SEPA transfer (3 figures), and last time they told me i should wait for longer than a month (back in may). Smallish withdrawals took 7/10 days to arrive to my account pre-bubble, whie now it looks like the bigger the withdrawals I request, the quicker they arrive to my account. Funny. Anyhow, Gox is shitty for trading and its management is amateurish, but I have to say in their defense that they never crapped on me regarding withdrawals. I have no complain in that sense. |
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▼ mtgoxUSD 95.7259
▼ bitstampUSD 89.0500
▼ btceUSD 89.9860
It's interesting that the other exchanges are consistently trading lower than MtGox's low of 92. This has been going on for over a week now, so apparently there is still no efficient way to arbitrage it.
people are waiting to get their money out of gox so they can deposit it on the other exchanges. But it's only a USD issue, why wouldn't they be taking EUR or YEN? gox only does usd and euro? besides sepa transfers take like a month on gox False. I recently requested 3 withdrawals, SEPA, 5 figures each, and they arrived to my account in 2/3 days. Gox has tens of thousands of customers, if all the SEPA transfers had such delays we would see a shitstorm going on in these forums, while we still have $11M on Gox order book and trading goes on despite the low volume. Following my own personal experience, the delays are an exception, and I think if they weren't we would see panic, which we are not seeing oh boy, you're so full of shit Why? I'm sharing with you my own personal experience. |
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▼ mtgoxUSD 95.7259
▼ bitstampUSD 89.0500
▼ btceUSD 89.9860
It's interesting that the other exchanges are consistently trading lower than MtGox's low of 92. This has been going on for over a week now, so apparently there is still no efficient way to arbitrage it.
people are waiting to get their money out of gox so they can deposit it on the other exchanges. But it's only a USD issue, why wouldn't they be taking EUR or YEN? gox only does usd and euro? besides sepa transfers take like a month on gox False. I recently requested 3 withdrawals, SEPA, 5 figures each, and they arrived to my account in 2/3 days. Gox has tens of thousands of customers, if all the SEPA transfers had such delays we would see a shitstorm going on in these forums, while we still have $11M on Gox order book and trading goes on despite the low volume. Following my own personal experience, the delays are an exception, and I think if they weren't we would see panic, which we are not seeing |
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Shroomskit, did you sell yet?
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I'm interested in taking part in a joint legal action against BFL. I requested refund after Inaba's rant against Gar255 and I just received the same BS reply.
This is outrageous.
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Whether or not he is right, that is a pretty good presentation.
I don't see why the fact that he is reading from a script is significant.
There was a weird contradiction. He claims that Shinichi is Satoshi, but also that the emails were written by his son. Perhaps he is wrong and his son is Satoshi.
I would like to point out that a person does not have to be a native speaker of English to have an excellent grasp of the language. Read Lolita by Nabakov. Nabakov is a native of Russia, but has an incredible command of the English language that surpasses most native English speakers.
Nabokov, with an O. |
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I got it two days ago.. it was one heck of a ride. My avalon's Wifi is actually defective.. and I do not have internet where I live.. oh boy. the trials.. the pain.. But it was worth it. There is something sexy about making money while you sleep.  After almost three months from the OP you finally got it... I'm very happy for you, man! Congrats! Enjoy your beast and upload some pics! |
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Bitcoin likely can't survive another extended bear market. Those of you who want cheap coins be careful what you wish for.
So it can startup from nothing, gain global attention, but if the price drops for a long time, then it will burn to nothing, not the first time, but the second time? Yeah, seems likely....  I'm not saying that bitcoin is dead. But if Bitcoin drops to <$30 again, it's going to take a lot longer to recover to >$100 (years perhaps) if it ever does. Why? Do you have empirical proof or analysis to share or its just a "gut feeling"? There are no empirical proofs or analyses and anything who tells you otherwise is simply bullshitting you. There are no fundamentals for bitcoin. You can't analyze is that way! Bitcoin right now is almost entirely speculatory That means it is only worth what people think it is worth. A drop in price is VERY BAD for bitcoin's acceptance. People wll begin to worry and pull out. And people who have lost a significant amount of money in bitcoin will turn away and near look back. That is just more potential bitcoin users that will never be on our side again. And since bitcoin was once at $266, if it goes back to $30 that will mean there will a lot of people that will have been burnt. And most of them will never come back. What is best for bitcoin now is for more and more people to get involved and the price to rise. What is worst for bitcoin now is for people to lose faith, flee, and let the price drop. Bitcoin dropping is basically undoing all the work that has been done in the last 6 months getting us to this point. Inflating the bubble a third time will be even harder. Bitcoin in the news won't be enough anymore. People are already tiring of hearing about bitcoin in the paper but never seeing anything real come from it. THis isn't a simple dip either. Bitcoin has lost 10% of it's value in the past 24 hours. I know this is that unusual, but we've have a period of slow and steady decline for over a month now and pretty much nothing good happen when it comes to price. BS. Bitcoin already lost 1/16th of its value in 2011, and raised stronger shortly after. Bitcoin is not only a penny-stock market, a commodity prone to speculation, it's a revolutionary concept that empowers people and that has huge appeal because it solves real, day by day problems, being a trust free and decentralized system to transfer value. Plus, it has his own exclusive applications, for example Silk Road, that couldn't exist without a Bitcoin-like crypto currency. Bitcoin is the most perfect way to transfer value without relying on a trusted third party that has been created until today. That remains, regardless of boom and bust cycles. Bitcoin potential is not related to exchange rate swings. BTC is nw in a bear, just because it is a commodity-like asset and after a bubble you get despair and capitulation, but this is just the very beginning of this game. People has short memory. All those that now turn their backs to BTC, will be replaced by bigger investors in the next hype cycle. Do not underestimate the need for freedom. |
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Pretty much agree with your analysis, which I think that can be summed up by saying that after a speculative mania phase the market has to correct and adjust to a supply+demand reality that got distorted during a hype cycle. I also enjoyed this particular quote, as I have the same feeling: The time to buy Bitcoins could be when difficulty begins to deflate again. Admittedly, that could happen much further up if another media hype starts, but the chances in my eyes are relatively small. And right now, another media hype is nowhere to be seen. IMO, before that we really need an improvement in the infrastructure. During the next media hype, Gox cannot be anymore the leading exchange. Hence, as it happened in 2011, the end of the "gold rush" in mining, represented by a decline in the network hash rate, could be indeed a perfect moment to buy back in. |
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