Great  So if he keeps this 12k investment I (and many others I assume) don't even need to dream about getting back their loss any time soon. I congratulate him to being past his delusion. A gambling addiction always ends in a disaster. So I hope for him to be past it. Still this hurts  Yep, it hurts, but it is what it is. Being the house of an online casino with such a small edge was never meant to be a "stable, long-term investment" as many delusional investors want to believe. We are gambling too, its just that our gamble is +EV, but for that positive expected value to be realized we need to look to the very long term. Plus, the fact that the "never divest" guys as myself took the lion share of the losses and continually get diluted on the profits make the "very long term" even longer  Meanwhile, Nakowa even said on the chat: 10:02:25 (136175) <allover> don't be hostile to me.  I'm just an investor (gambler) as you all here. Well, admitting he is a gambler is indeed a good step towards redemption. |
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Again my losses grow and my break even point increases in relation to the house profit... Yesterday at this exact point in house profit my losses were lower, and BTW my share in the house roll has been diluted dramatically.
Same for me, at some point I saw the investment changing of 12K (from 36 to 48), so I guess there is a big investor there who joined after some losses and raised the break even point. Looks like only the braves got a lot to lose from the situation... The "big investor" is Nakowa, the whole 12k belong to him. I just read the chat logs, he seems to be past his delusion. He is said aprox. 1 hour ago he just realized that there is no flaw in the site, is just that the 1% house edge is so small that he can create huge variance and end up ahead in the short term by playing with his enormous bankroll... And he also said he realized that if he keeps playing forever he will lose it everything. This said, I also checked the thread about statistical analysis of Satoshi Dice, precisely by Dooglus. Even with a 1.9% house edge, there were months that the site lost quite a lot of money... I'm now wondering how many billion bets we will need for the 1% edge to do its thing and thus investors to profit. |
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Again my losses grow and my break even point increases in relation to the house profit... Yesterday at this exact point in house profit my losses were lower, and BTW my share in the house roll has been diluted dramatically.
That is because after nakowa damaged the house for another 1500, he then invested 12k into the site So, after the 1k he won on Sunday after 14h of crazy gambling he took another 1.5k yesterday? Wow, Nakowa the annihilator. Luckily for us he is not a gambler  |
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Again my losses grow and my break even point increases in relation to the house profit... Yesterday at this exact point in house profit my losses were lower, and BTW my share in the house roll has been diluted dramatically.
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When the site is +3k coins, the chance of it going to -3k or 6k is exactly the same.
Not exactly, the chance is higher we're getting to +6k because of the house edge.
When we're at +3k, +6k should be reached more than twice as often as -3k in theory, since it's twice as close, and in the direction favoured by the house edge. Right, really suck at math |
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I arrived home finally.
So, what's the hashrate? Will the machines have huge divergences in hashrate? When they will start to ship? Tomorrow morning?
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More importantly however, whatever you think the reason for this is, please look at nakowa's yesterday winning charts and tell me that there is no "exploitable" pattern to it:
That's all easy with hindsight. The hard part is being sure of the exploitable pattern of Nakowa's next run. Similarly, I've noticed BTC trading in the 130-145 range over the last weeks. What's stopping you from selling at say 142 and buying back at 135 repeatedly? Would have been a winning strategy over the last weeks/months. What could possibly go wrong... I'm addressing that point in my post: I said, at around bet 6000, some people decided it's a "pattern" and traded accordingly. You also noted that I said, several times in fact, that I'm aware that in the long run, investment "trading" should be -EV, right? But that wasn't my argument anyway: in the short run, it can be +EV. So a loss like the one we suffer now isn't distributed evenly over investors. So the losing investors will be unhappy. So the site will lose investors, which is bad for everyone. That, in a nutshell, is my argument why invest-trading hurts j-d. And the complementary argument is: there's no good reason to *want* invest-trading: j-d already has a gambling mechanism. Investments should be just that: investments. The discussion about investing/divesting is getting long and I must tell that I am convinced that people in the chat were actually cheating people by asking them to divest when Nakowa was -4K for at least two reasons. First, if you have the "secret" strategy you are not going to tell anyone, secondly as everyone agrees divesting is another fallacy. Now also the forum is getting plenty of this and it looks to me an army of trolls trying to cheat other people with "secret" tricks. Maybe I should stay silent and stay invested, but this is getting too much spam in my opinion. Divesting is not a fallacy. It is a risk management strategy. You minimize losses but you may miss out on gains. Have you ever heard the term take profit in investing? This is what you're doing with the divesting strategy. You take profits that you are content with. You might miss out on further profits. But if the profit goes down, you'll have limited your losses. I agree on this (divesting to secure profits is not gambling), in fact I should have protected the profits I had when I went to sleep yesterday (I was up 5%), but greed and faith in both math and Nak's compulsive gambling behavior made me keep my investment there... And I woke up with a 12% loss. This does not change the fact that trying to "ride the waves" or "predict the patterns" by investing/divesting multiple times while Nak is playing is just another form of gambler's fallacy. There are no predictable waves, no patterns, just random events. When the site is +3k coins, the chance of it going to -3k or 6k is exactly the same. |
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Very good post oda, I agree especially on you analysis on "investment daytrading".
Regarding the competitive advantage of the 1% edge, it looks to me that 1.5% might be less attractive for guys like Nakowa, but nevertheless investors would make more money which is ultimately the goal of the site. I might be wrong and we could lose too much volume, it's difficult to calculate.
Finally, I see the chance of Nakowa cheating almost none. Yesterday he lost two smallish deposits and he did a bigger one to cover that losses, as a degenerate gambler would do. He started with a high bet of 130BTC, after a few hours he went to 170BTC, and the last hours he just went berserk and started to make bets as high as max profit allowed hin. The amount if high bets in relation to the smaller ones also increased dramatically at the end of his session, like he was getting anxious.
Finally, in the first few hours he took the house to - 6k, which meant +4k for him, but nevertheless he didn't stop because his goal was to cover the 5k loss of his previous two sessions. Finally and after 14 extenuating hours he stopped by winning 1k coins, but in the process he risked up to 8k. First, that doesn't seem like an unlikely outcome. Secondly, all the above completely looks to me as the behavior of a deluded compulsive gambler, and not the behavior of a cheater.
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Sorry guys out of the country and on my cell so I cannot browse the whole thread
I see orama posting with lots of smileys, how many KnC customers have received their units? Did they finally succeed?
He's posting images from the production factory! No one has received any units yet. But images are looking hopeful. Hashing seems to be going on. Delivery this week? Ok, so they finally over promised and under delivered. Sad. |
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Come on guys, are they shipping? Are people picking up their local units? Did KnC finally "under promised and over delivered"?
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Sorry guys out of the country and on my cell so I cannot browse the whole thread
I see orama posting with lots of smileys, how many KnC customers have received their units? Did they finally succeed?
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1) I think the accusations of Nakowa cheating are totally baseless. He didn't win "7 times in a row", in fact here are the outcomes of his last three sessions:
A) -3k
B) -2k
C) +1k
Yesterday (session C) he gambled for 14 hours non stop, and he took the casino's bankroll from -6k to +5k multiple times, which is perfectly normal variance with just 1% house edge and his volume, and he stopped at - 3k for the house which meant +1k for him. I don't see nothing too strange here, 1% edge is a small edge indeed.
If he is indeed cheating IMO he is doing a genius work by hiding the fact, he was closed to busto a couple of times and took him many hours of what looked like totally random gambling until he walked with a relatively small profit considering how much he risked.
2) I agree that invest/divest "day trading" is pure gambling, and a form of "investors fallacy". You just cannot predict random events, and the rolls of a dice are totally random unless the site is flawed (and there's absolutely no evidence to support the latter). Being a "never divest" investor I can confirm as a fact that on average "day traders" got lucky, as both my losses and my break even in relation to casinos profit are increasing, but that's irrelevant because it's still a random event.
The only sure thing is that if Nakowa keeps gambling forever, he will lose it everything - but the long run is long indeed. With his enormous bankroll and reckless gambling he can indeed profit in the short and mid term because the house edge is very slim and he can handle being thousands of BTC down without worrying at all. Nevertheless, the only way for him to prove the site has a flaw is to win all the bankroll, totally breaking the bank, and he is nowhere near that. The only thing he is proving is that by being the only player pushing max profit, and against a slim 1% edge, he can create huge variance.
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So, what the rest of investors would think about trying with a 1.5% edge? It's going to be difficult to have doog agree on that as all the marketing of JD is based on the extremely low 1% edge, but I would love to hear your reasoned opinions.
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I will tell you for example that I am 25% down and I invested back in July and I stayed invested throughout
Wow. Man, good luck to get positive again, with all people investing when it is low (like now) and divesting when it is high. It will be harder :/ No kidding, that my biggest problem with the system personally. Once you take a loss, getting back to even becomes progressively more difficult due to continuous dilution. I think the point is us the investors should think about a solution to protect our money and push for it. If I was Dooglus I'd be happy with things as they are, he can be divested and make money only on commissions on gains, and thus the risk of the small 1% edge is on the investors and not on him. Anyhow it's obvious that if investors make more money, he will also earn more commissions on investors gains, IMO we just have to find a balance between investors being protected and players attracted to the site. As a first step, I'd try a 1.5% edge. It looks to me that 1% is obviously not enough. I'd also consider a commission on each divestment in order to have a bankroll that is more stable and not fluctuating like crazy like yesterday. Opinions on this? |
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One more comment: after looking at the insane betting volume we had yesterday, I'm starting to think a tiny 1% edge is not enough to make decent money for investors unless we have whales pushing max profit non stop, every single day. That might be the reason all other casinos have much higher edge.
Nevertheless I think that for Dooglus the site is good as it is, as he is taking a healthy cut of all the gains on the site, and with such a low edge he can count on a high volume and thus a nice, riskless and clean profit based on commisions. On the contrary, investors (who are actually the guys providing the bankroll of the casino) have a very small edge working on their favour, which means that they can be down for a long time, which is made worse by having their shares diluted when they are at a loss.
If you ask me, I'd just wait and see, but I'd think about taking house edge to 1.5%, or to think of another system of rewarding investors, helping out the tiny edge they have.
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Well, before Nakowa started playing my b/e point was roughly -2k in house profit.
I never divested and now I'm significantly down (more than 10%), and my break even point is significantly higher (+1,600 in house profit).
I can only assume the reason for this is the "invest/divest" day traders, including Dooglus (who divested when the house was up 3k), on average got lucky and screwed the ones like me who didn't divest. I'd say the "invest/divest daytraders" were gambling against those that did not divest, and the former won big time with a simple strategy: divest when you are up, invest again when the house is down.
What do you think, doog? So much for the "long term, stable investment" some day dreaming investors are looking for...
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Sweet, -6k. Down almost 20% on my investment, this is going to be hard to recover if Nako stops now...
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3 player currently making 100btc+ bets, holy hell...
Don;t you wish the max profit was 1% so we could have even higher variance? Mechs, you amaze me. You do realize that the more players we have doing near max profit bets the lesser variance we have, right? And YES, I'd like to have full Kelly again, as 99% of investors who understand how math works. If it hurts seeing your investment going up and down, don't invest in a casino, or invest less coins in it. |
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Guys I think I never knew what "variance" really was before looking at the swings in my profit on just-dice in these days :-D
You should try online poker. You ain't seen nothing yet! Once I got AA pre-flop three times in a row, I went all in pre-flop the three times (buying in 100 BB each time), every time at least one player followed me, and I lost all three times - two times against weaker pocket pairs, one time against AQ. What are the chances for that? I have the impression than much lower than getting lucky at J-D as Nakowa did. Variance is really huge in poker. |
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Nakowa guy has been playing more than 8 hours non stop, took the site profit to +5k and then to -5k, now its again approaching 0 profit for the site. He has wagered BTC373,710.49268341 in this session only. "I'm not a gambler" (Nakowa dixit) |
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