He might be able to take all the profit  Yeah well, the "profit" is only for the guys who just invested, older investors certainly aren't at a profit. So they took the risks and aren't going to see most of the profits because the investment is now much higher. Great. Well, I guess this is the origin of the "investors turmoil" when max profit was taken to 1/4 Kelly. Those of us who never had any doubt about "math working", and also about Nakowa coming back over and over, didn't divest, so we were hit by the big losses while we waited for math and gamblers psychology to their thing. When max profit was taken down to 0,25%, the only way to *try* to recoup quickly that losses was to multiply by four our original investment. I did so and it worked well, but anyhow it sucks because we were forced to either a) commit four-fold the amounts of coins we were investing in the first place, or b) to stick with huge losses for long. |
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The question is: do you take the risk of an unproven HashFast preorder, or do you prefer an in-stock, already tested Redhash miner? :-)
ONE MILLION TIMES THIS. Finally "ASIC business done right" |
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It would be so nice to just lock this thread until Monday...  |
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Interesting to see how investment skyrocketed to 45k from 30k when Doog took max profit to 0,25%, and how it decreased to 42k when he took it up to 0,5%. People is indeed investing/divesting to adjust their risk and expected return depending on a given max profit.
About variable risk: I think we should think about setting up a limit, and run simulations on different scenarios. For example, if it's going to be possible to set up something as high as 10% max profit (which would be reckless gambling, not investing), I have the impression that a very big portion of the investors would choose very high max profit - wouldn't that potentially create huge swings in the bankroll?
About leverage: formulas to reduce C-P risk are always welcome, but I'd proceed with a lot of care when implementing leverage. IMO, hard limit should be enforced. When leverage is possible I expect a super-inflated bankroll, and this could lead to many bad situations.
Doog, any thoughts on that?
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Sounds like you and OP would get along just dandy I don't think what OP wants is possible. So while he has ideas, I'm not sure I can get along with him. He'd be rattling off too much and I'd just be annoyed. lets all teleport back with our Asic and start mining btc too.
There's no mention about time travel here. But I'd take a USB miner with me. Small. Concealable. 2.5 GH/s in 2009? ROI overnight I think. Bringing a 2.5 GH/s miner to 2009? First, you should bring a recent cgminer too. Secondly, you would just kill the network. |
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Seems like 1 through 4.
Either way, I hope he doesn't come back when max bet is back to 230BTC in a few hours.
Are you trying to use reverse psychology? Its too obvious to be true  |
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One also has to consider the geopolitical risk as well. Ask companies how much they lost when Chavez started nationalizing foreign assets in Venezuela.
Following my experience that is an extreme example. Billion $ companies base their operations in countries where the geopolitical risk is theoretically high, but nevertheless the profit is well worth that risk. As I said earlier, I've seen first hand a few big european companies opening factories in North Africa to be more competitive. There are many benefits (operational costs are lower in general), but especially for companies for which electricity is massive cost, moving abroad is a no-brainer. When you are used to pay 6/7 figures in monthly electricity bills, a mild geopolitical risk is nothing compared to savings An individual will NEVER be able to be as efficient as a corporation in a business as is BTC mining as its currently conceived. Never is a strong word. A company may have cheaper power and mining hardware (although I think in time margins will be so compressed it won't be much cheaper) but it has more expensive "everything else." Imagine a hypothetical miner in 2015. He buys mining boards (which by now are very low margin) he constructs his own case/frame powers it from his old ATX power supply, and puts it next to a window with a box fan. Additional cost beyond hashing equipment and power: ~$0.00.
You can't do that for a PH/s or more. Take the price of the business property lease, add in employees, add in security (you aren't going to leave you $50M in miners alone at night are you), add in insurance cost, add in fire suppression (might be mandatory in some areas), throw in business taxes, and pile on the additional energy and capital costs for 800 KW of industrial chillers, etc. Even mundane stuff like enough racks to mount 1 PH/s (you aren't going to just leave them on the floor are you, and the cost of an electrician to run enough drops to power 1,000 or more systems all add up. All those are Diseconomies of scale. The company may be cheaper but GH/s but it isn't 10x cheaper like the raw power costs might suggest. The last thing to consider is cost of capital. After this gold rush period is over mining isn't a particularly attractive venture from a risk vs reward point of view. Many investors may look at the small reward, the outsized risk, and the fact that profits are largely determined by the actions of outsiders and simply pass on the millions necessary to build up such a mining farm.
One thing I am particularly interested in is using the "waste heat". For a large operation (say 1 PH/s = 800 KW = 1 million BTU/hr) they have a lot of waste heat but it has no value. It actually has negative value as the company will spend money both on hardware and energy to remove that heat. On the other hand a home user could use waste heat to preheat hot water (free hot water for the rest of your life), and in the winter supplement heating the residence. With GPU rigs they are too bulky, complex, and skill intensive. However take some ASICS put them in a compact sealed box, cold water in, hot water out and that "waste heat" suddenly has value. I am doing some experiments right now. Interesting stuff.
That being said I do believe large commercial players will make up a significant portion of the network capacity in the future. I still think hobbyists and small home farmers will exist however they will be in areas of the world with lower than average energy prices (<$0.10 per kWh), generally cooler climates, and may look to thinks like using waste heat to boost ROI%.
I think you are assuming that efficient mining equipment will be generally available, and I doubt that. People with free electricity could keep mining with GPUs indefinitely, but the fact is that their hashrate is already a drop in the ocean. I think there will be a moment in which the most advanced ASIC will just be in the hands of big corporations with the means to fully develop their own chips & hardware, and thus the home miners will be a negligible part of the hashrate, which actually means they were "cut out", because they cannot compete with corporations. I might be wrong, we will see - it's nevertheless an exciting, game-changing time. I also think your experiments about "waste heat" are extremely interesting. While the home miner as we conceive it might be a walking dead, a newborn "rational" miner might be on the way - and that could really be a new paradigm. I can imagine a future in which the hardware that secures the network is warming our homes and our water, and I like it |
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Where do you get electricity cheaper for industrial use than for residential use?
It may vary from country to country or even power company to power company but generally speaking power companies offer lower rates for large commercial/industrial customers. Small businesses generally pay about the same as residential but above 30KW prices are lower and above 200 KW or so they are significantly lower. Also companies which need sustained power (i.e. 30KW continually over an entire month) can contract (they pay 30KW regardless of what their sustained usage is) and get even lower rates. Power companies love sustained usage customers because it is much easier to calculate and load balance. Where I live (Europe) electricity for industrial uses is WAY cheaper than for residential uses. Anyhow, that's pretty much irrelevant. Professional operations will be setup in places where electricity is almost free. In Kuwait, for example, maximum fare is $0.01Kw/h. In North Africa (and I know this first hand), Government incentivizes foreign investment by giving multiple benefits, one of them being free electricity until one point, and "almost free" (<0.01kw/h) after that point. Many energy-hungry industries are flourishing in North Africa because of this. An individual will NEVER be able to be as efficient as a corporation in a business as is BTC mining as its currently conceived. |
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I'm not quite good at thinking about unrealistic situations, and your unfix is not realistic. (Returning my last 2000BTC? I don't think you and JD investors are willing to do this.)
I never proposed that - it was Peter R who did. I just ask you how did Dooglus "fixed" you (without fixing the alleged exploit), so we can ask him to "unfix" you. In the meanwhile, the bankroll skyrocketed to 45k - max profit will be soon at 0.5%, meaning you will be able to bet up to 225BTC using your usual 2x type of bet. Big enough for you to do your thing, Nako? |
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what should Dooglus do to "unfix" you, so you can keep exploiting this yet unfixed flaw in J-D?
Were you me, what would you do? I couldn't be you because I believe J-D is legit and sha256 has no known flaws, and finally I know the odds are against you, and unless you cheat you cannot *beat* the odds in the long run, you can just get lucky in the short/mid term. But, let's say I'm you, and I believe there is a flaw in JD that allows me to "spot patterns" and thus beat the house in the long run. Let's say I know the exploit is still there, but Dooglus "fixed" me in some other way. I would just ask Dooglus to "unfix" me, so I can prove everybody I can destroy the house. In this case "Nakowa" would have written a page in history.So: how do we "unfix" you, Nakowa? Many investors might support your cause and ask Dooglus. |
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Nakowa, you have proven even a complete idiot can be a good gambler. You are like one of those idiot savants who cannot brush their own teeth but can count cards through a 8 deck shuffle.
Mechs, you amaze me. There is no "good" dice gambler, the dice is completely random. The dice is not black jack, poker or sports betting. Nakowa, you did not answer my question: what should Dooglus do to "unfix" you, so you can keep exploiting this yet unfixed flaw in J-D? |
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Dolphins?  Dolphins < Whales I'm saying: if Doog fixed the exploit I used, which he still didn't, (he just fixed me, directly) and let mathematics run the casino, I would go bankrupted if I play long enough.
BTW: I saw at least 3 dolphins got hunted today in JD.
So: what should Dooglus do to "unfix" you, so you can keep exploiting this yet unfixed flaw in J-D? |
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Nakowa, let's put it this way:
As an investor, I'm the house. You won quite a lot of money from me and other investors. I watched you and I never thought you cheated, I'm 99.9% sure you are honest and playing in a fair way. I'm also 99.99999999% sure J-D is completely legit, and that you cannot beat the house edge if you play long enough. You can be lucky 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 times in a row, but not indefinitely.
Thus, I dare you to prove your strategy really works. If it really works you will be able to bankrupt the house. Its your money against mine, just play long enough until us or you go busto.
If you don't, it would just be like admitting you acknowledge there is no strategy, no patterns to spot, just luck and variance. Honestly, in that case I would be happy for you then. You would have come out from your delusion, learnt a big lesson and cashed in a huge profit in the process.
What do you say?
 I do have a stetegy, but not the kind with gambler's fallacy. JD's game has an exploit, by which I could easily create large variation. I've talked about that before, but no body believes me. And then, I proved by actions, won again and again, reaped the whole profit, until I was beaten by Doog changing rules. Believe it or not, if I was not UNFAIRLY trapped, I might well win more. However, most people here tend to believe they truly are masters of Mathematics, with biased wishful thinking. No one could have that LUCK, used 700 bankroll (the maximum down I had), up to at most 16000. That's not luck, that's only because JD has something wrong. I'm reluctant to elaborate what's the exploit. I have no obligation to do so. (NOT as people imagined that I knew the seed. I don't know the seed. I'm even reluctant to change my client seed, only changed once in the last session, because my loss is too unusual. Doog once suspected I hacked into JD's server, but he understand no one can copy data from a harddrive and leave no trace.) Are you saying that if max profit is restored to 1% you will be able to bankrupt the casino if you play long enough? |
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True I just think it won't be that high for a couple reasons. Then again if it is then KNC customers are screwed either way.
Completely agree on that, I've been saying that from day 1. Only thing to do to at least try to "guarantee" a positive ROI to investors is to do something similar to what Avalon did at the beginning - selling batches - with the important difference that the miners should be immediately available, otherwise you risk a competitors burns you by deploying massive hashrate. Obviously all the above is kinda ridiculous, because if any company could be able to guarantee any profit by mining they would just mine themselves. Mining with completely specific hardware and not with commodity electronics is leading us to super-professionalized mining scene, where amateurs will be totally cut out. This process is going much faster than some want to believe. |
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Nakowa, let's put it this way:
As an investor, I'm the house. You won quite a lot of money from me and other investors. I watched you and I never thought you cheated, I'm 99.9% sure you are honest and playing in a fair way. I'm also 99.99999999% sure J-D is completely legit, and that you cannot beat the house edge if you play long enough. You can be lucky 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 times in a row, but not indefinitely.
Thus, I dare you to prove your strategy really works. If it really works you will be able to bankrupt the house. Its your money against mine, just play long enough until us or you go busto.
If you don't, it would just be like admitting you acknowledge there is no strategy, no patterns to spot, just luck and variance. Honestly, in that case I would be happy for you. You would have come out from your delusion, learnt a big lesson and cashed in a huge profit in the process.
What do you say?
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Doog, let's do not make up reality, the change was made to protect the bankroll from the swings caused precisely by Nakowa and ONLY by Nakowa, for the simple reason he is the only one pushing max profit.
If nobody was making huge bets causing the bankroll to plummet then I wouldn't have made the change, that's true. And nakowa was the only one doing it. So in that sense I made the change because of nakowa. But he sees it as a personal attack and was offended by it. It wasn't personal. It was for the good of the site's bankroll, not an attack on nakowa. I doubt it makes any sense trying to explain that to him. He thinks that the lag on the site is somehow working against him too. He's not being rational at the moment. Doog, let's make this more clear: You did make the change because of me, not "in a sense". And in a sense, it IS a personal attack. I played by rules you set, and you fight back by changing rules, is that what "provable fairness" is about? I do NOT see it as me being offended, I see it as you being UNFAIR. Whereas you're under the great pressure, you always choose the wrong direction. Otherwise, you're a nice guy. About the lagging, I'm clearly not the only one who got hurt. I had no proof, so I use the word "supect", and hoping you can prove yourself clear. That's all. Nakowa: just use a third party tool to check your rolls, they will completely match what you had during your last sessions - the site is PROVABLY FAIR, meaning that you can check for yourself that there was no cheating, and that's a fact. The lag, if it existed at all, had absolutely no effect on the dice numbers. This is non debatable, Dooglus already proved himself uploading a screenshot, you can check by yourself using a third party tool - end of the story. If you think the problem here was the max profit %, no problem - in a while you will be able to prove to us how your strategy beats the house if the max profit is taken to 0.5%. |
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If KnC delivers +400 units per day as they claim we will probably see a 400% difficulty jump. Anyhow, i dont think they will.
If KnC delivers 400 units a day, assuming all Jupiters at 500Gh/s... 200Th added daily for the 12 working days between the beginning of next week Monday and October 15. That's 2.4Ph dropped onto the network by the middle of October. (Coincidentally, that figure being very close to D&T's thread on guesstimated preorders) This would mean a jump of ~350million (from 2.4Ph) + ~150 million that it is now = 500 million. High? Maybe; A 400% increase? No. Some people have what I believe are unrealistic expectations on the amount of KNC orders. I have seen projections wild ass guesses as high as them shipping 500 Units (0.25 PH/s) per day. I agree its completely unrealistic, but those are the numbers they claimed to be able to ship daily. |
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Or normal rig ?
ASICs are only good for the people selling them. The current on the market have no ROI, the future will have no ROI once they start shipping Yes they have a ROI, but a negative ROI. If you are going to use basic finance terms, at least learn what they mean: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/returnoninvestment.asp |
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How is your track record?
Adam was a bear earlier this year at $20. It might have made some very specific bearish calls for the very short term, mostly as a joke, but our good old adam is the prototypical permabull, you can't deny that |
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If KnC delivers +400 units per day as they claim we will probably see a 400% difficulty jump. Anyhow, i dont think they will.
If KnC delivers 400 units a day, assuming all Jupiters at 500Gh/s... 200Th added daily for the 12 working days between the beginning of next week Monday and October 15. That's 2.4Ph dropped onto the network by the middle of October. (Coincidentally, that figure being very close to D&T's thread on guesstimated preorders) This would mean a jump of ~350million (from 2.4Ph) + ~150 million that it is now = 500 million. High? Maybe; A 400% increase? No. Yep, you are right, that'd be a jump of above 200%, not 400%. Anyhow, a 200% jump from 150M might too be quite a problem for some people. |
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