I'm inclined to think that bitcoin is a ponzi scheme for a number of reasons:
Actually, there is only one reason to think that Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme, and that is that people are paying its inventor who promises to invest those monies profitably, but instead he is merely using the money to pay out earlier investors. But this is plainly not even remotely true of Bitcoin, therefore it is not a Ponzi scheme. It may overvalued, a speculative bubble, or any number of other things, but not a Ponzi scheme. A Ponzi scheme is a specific type of scam which Bitcoin is not.
1. Quality of a currency - It fails this for me in terms of lacking the tangibility of gold. Now people will say that gold or fiat is not 'tangible', but the guns that enforce currencies are, and the fact that millions of ignorant people want to adorn themselves with gold, makes it a value for at least the next 100 years.
So, something is only valuable if you can force people to accept it? Funny, I thought thought something was only valuable if people are willing to accept it without being forced to. And I guarantee that very few of the people who use gold as money do so because they want to adorn themselves with it.
2. Bitcoin's usefulness - I've just been to a bitcoin conference in NZ. Unquestionably cryptocurrencies are 'useful'. The technology is amazing. This however does not mean 'coins' are valuable; only that the technology is useful. People will say the technology is the coin, but actually, one of its appeals is that it is scalable, open source, but that just means to be that it will be duplicated.
It has been duplicated. Many times. The duplicates are, without exception, almost entirely worthless. If you want to separate the coin from the technology, go ahead and try. Let us know how that works out for you.
3. Bitcoin's evolution - Some critics to me at the conference told me that bitcoin can develop insofar as the protocol can be changed. I'd like to know more about this. How a consensus can be reached to change it, because it strikes me as a rubbery problem. My understanding talking to everyone was that 'all parties' (miners, developers, users, et al) have to be satisfied to make changes. I was also told that architecture-wise, some changes are very hard to make. I was told this by developers.
And the problem is?
4. Inflation from mining - Bitcoin is limited to 21 million BTC. The implication is that there is 42% of inflation to arise over the next 10 years. That is plenty of timer for a new coin to develop without inflation. Why? No mining. Mining is a cost. I'm told that mining adds a cost of 10% to each coin, but that seems too high. Maybe they mean something else. Ultimately the cost is 42% over 10 years.
Without mining, how will you incentivise the security of the blockchain? Oh right, you were going to separate the coin from the technology. Carry on.
5. Redemption - There is a problem getting bitcoins into something I really need - cash. I've heard that its hard to get the currency you want; which strikes me as a liquidity issue.
You've heard wrong.
It seems likely that banks will create their own coins, and that these will get far greater credibility.
Really? Every bank using its own currency? How will you pay people who use a different bank? Will you have to exchange your currency every time you go to the store? That doesn't seem very credible to me.
They have 10 years before the inflation of mining expires with bitcoin.
Why 10 years?
The reason I think its a ponzi scheme is that I think developers, having invested in the development of their coin, they want a pay-out.
How does that make it a Ponzi scheme? In fact, how does that make it different from any other business?
I think anarcho-capitalists, as many are, ethically believe 'market rules', so if you can make money on this 'unregulated market', then why not. Ethically, I think it eases their conscience not to consider the negatives.
Elaborate. What are the negatives? You can only make money in a free market by selling something people want to buy. You can't force people to buy something they don't want. Seller gets money, buyer gets something they want. What's the problem?