Thank you kindly.  You are right about getting at least 1 BTC.  I have been in a little bit of a daze trying to figure out how to scratch together purchase funds for that.  Before you posted that—thinking, Need 1 BTC.  Wrote to a friend that I need at least 1 BTC before I die.  Not even thinking about riches—it is a much deeper need for me, 1 BTC.  Then, your post...  I sat staring at your post, pondering it.

I shot my bolt with stablecoin reserves avoiding liquidation on the way down to $30k.  I typically keep only enough local fiat in the bank for immediate necessities, which are indeed necessities—I spend little, so it is a negligible amount; anyway, there is a privacy firewall between the bank and crypto-land.  That leaves volatile alts.  Most are already gone.  Part of remaining scraps is illiquid—locked up in staking, which takes 7–11 days to unlock (depends on the coin), or long-term locked for one large airdrop that I would have dumped long ago if it wasn’t locked.  They lock those shitcoins for a reason!  Altcoin protip, based on my altcoin experience:  If something has any type of lockup to prevent you from dumping, that itself suggests that it probably should be dumped.  Valuable things do not need lockup to inhibit people from dumping them.  Bitcoin is dominant when 100% of the BTC supply is freely floating.  (I have been intending to start an anti-POS thread about this financial manipulation.)

The rest of what’s left is nowhere near $20k in value right now—not even near $10k.  And those are things I expect to recover against BTC—swapping the thing that’s down more for the thing that’s down less is not a winning move.  Of course, most altcoins never recover after they fall against BTC.  Some probably will; I know the difference.  The “emergency reserve” is one of those, and I don’t have much of it left for any emergencies of an immediate life-or-death nature.  In the past six years, it has not kept up with BTC’s rises; it has overall lost about 97% against BTC, even as it rises somewhat against the dollar.  But it bounces back pretty well against BTC when both crash hard in a bear market, sometimes even starting before BTC bounces.

To get together $20k (or soon, $21k if we’re bouncing?) dollar cash ASAP is very far out of reach for me right now.  The margin account ate the assets that I could have used for such a thing.

Needless to say, I have been mulling a strategy to liquidate scraps in various potential near-future market conditions, to piece together a portion of a bitcoin.  Trying to estimate how to time what, to get the most BTC I can.  To give myself a headstart back towards 1 BTC.

@ImThour Sobs despairingly at good-old-loyal-boi 200MA. It's not over yet but agree, Fed news will move something big. Everyone's expecting up to a full point, majority 0.75 so anything more than that and we'll definitely visit 16k. I'm hoping Powell does a silly and we get half point instead, then we find some 30k respite.

Doesn't matter in the long run, but I'd really like to be not-so-stressed right now heh.

Where will it go? Already 20k and counting backwards. I am not expecting it to go below 20k. I think some institutional investor might come to its rescue at that level.

Question or judgment?

I intended to correct something I told Jay (need to catch up with his posts):  Technically, I do have a gambling habit.  I have profited before from investing BTC in casino bankrolls, and I wish to do so again.  Technically, it is gambling:  The house takes the EV+ side of the EV- bet offered to players.  The truism that “the house always wins” is incorrect:  The house often loses bets, but its average converges on profit for the same mathematical reason that winning players eventually fall into losses.  I said that I never gambled, and I didn’t even think of it in this context, because investing in a casino bankroll is not what most people mean by “gambling”.

I have never gambled even one satoshi of my own BTC on the EV- side.

Just a quick look at the graphs - OMG last 12 weeks in red (ok ok one nano teeny-tiny green dildo there somethere). Last dildo looks particularly frightening. Will $20k stand?  

So I can see shit has really hit the fan and there's blood in the streets etc... whining noobs everywhere... feels like I'm back in 2018   or 2014?  

Anyway, brethren, you know what you need to do now, right? HODL!  

Why Celsius and 3AC going under should cause you to worry

1/x

19/x - Also - If you are wondering why BTC and ETH are the first to be sold off, its because in a crisis, you sell what you can. Not what you want. There is no liquidity for shitcoins/ "alts"/ dreams

What kind of addiction?  I never do drugs; I am very strictly against the recreational abuse of psychotropics.  Except in such circumstances as having just lost a fortune, I don’t drink immoderately; I rarely drink at all.  I don’t have any history of problems with gambling—perhaps because I understand the mathematics of gambling; if someone offers me a game of chance, I will only bet on the EV+ side in the amount proved optimal by the Kelly Criterion.  Not sure what you mean.

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The worst part:  I am sufficiently intelligent to have warned others in the past not to do what I did.

I get rekt by NOT following my own advice.  I knew better.

Perhaps I was underconfident in my own intelligence, and thus vulnerable to the allure of all the influences that urge people towards taking debt against BTC and using margin.  It’s not that anyone told me to do this.  There is a sort of a psychological background noise urging it:  The “don’t spend your BTC—borrow against it!” ads we’ve all seen, the promotion of margin trading by exchanges, the public chatter of some traders who act like they have brass balls with margin, etc.  If you don’t have confidence in your own judgment, then eventually, it sinks in.  It is a subtle type of peer pressure and social influence.

I usually have supreme confidence in my own judgment; and I am immune to peer pressure.  I frankly don’t know why the hell I did this.  In one of my earlier posts, I suggested temporary insanity.  More likely:  Greed.  I screwed myself for years by being insufficiently greedy—by not aggressively seeking to increase my wealth.  I made a few good moves, but not nearly what I could have.  Then, I got tired of not having enough.  I talked so much about Bitcoin; I wanted to have some more of those bitcoins!  Make money fast.  I didn’t want to wait anymore, to keep do it right.

I sought a shortcut to riches.  Thus, I cut short my riches.

One thing's for sure: The mother of all recessions is on its way!

 

Someone needs a salmonslap to stop selling, the weak hands are pathetic.
I hope from now on these weak hands will only be able to own dust.

Hopefully FED news isn't too bad and we bounce to 300k  

Imagine we break 2017 all time high, that would be uncharted territory  

A very sad story for how smart you sound. The moral I draw from the story, regardless of whether it is true or not, as I cannot verify it, is that one should never be overconfident of one's intelligence. Doing so can have catastrophic consequences.

Rate of inflation decreasing in everything except energy and food is exactly the sign of a structural change in economy. From now on industrial sector will be more important than financial sector. Production of food and energy will be more important than printing money and allocating them in a way so that the prices of food and energy be suppressed and artificially high standard of living be demonstrated to people.

Russia will never go back where it was. Now they know what are the benefits of being independent from the dollar and dollar derivatives like the euro, pound, yen etc.

I have no idea what you are talking about.  Energy?  Politics?  Wha?

To edumacate myself, I will ask Hunter Biden his opinion.  I hear that he knows things about energy politics in that region.

What will the Fed do doesn't matter since they don't fight inflation anymore. All they do is trying to manage your expectations about inflation. And this time it is not enough, because this inflation is caused by structural changes in the economy.