Bitcoin Forum
May 12, 2024, 10:45:54 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

Pages: « 1 ... 30727 30728 30729 30730 30731 30732 30733 30734 30735 30736 30737 30738 30739 30740 30741 30742 30743 30744 30745 30746 30747 30748 30749 30750 30751 30752 30753 30754 30755 30756 30757 30758 30759 30760 30761 30762 30763 30764 30765 30766 30767 30768 30769 30770 30771 30772 30773 30774 30775 30776 [30777] 30778 30779 30780 30781 30782 30783 30784 30785 30786 30787 30788 30789 30790 30791 30792 30793 30794 30795 30796 30797 30798 30799 30800 30801 30802 30803 30804 30805 30806 30807 30808 30809 30810 30811 30812 30813 30814 30815 30816 30817 30818 30819 30820 30821 30822 30823 30824 30825 30826 30827 ... 33344 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26382411 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
death_wish
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 70
Merit: 320

Take profit in BTC. Account PnL in BTC. BTC=money.


View Profile
June 15, 2022, 07:12:59 AM

[...] the dollar and dollar derivatives like the euro, pound, yen etc.

font=Comic Sans]Much wow.[/font]  I thought that I was generally contemptuous of today’s fiat currencies.  Dollar derivatives?

You know, it has happened that a major oil-producing country tried to switch from $ to € for its oil exports.  The United States did not exactly react as if the Euro were a dollar derivative.

(Just playing devil’s advocate.  IMO, they are all shitcoins.)
"With e-currency based on cryptographic proof, without the need to trust a third party middleman, money can be secure and transactions effortless." -- Satoshi
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
1715553954
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1715553954

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1715553954
Reply with quote  #2

1715553954
Report to moderator
1715553954
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1715553954

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1715553954
Reply with quote  #2

1715553954
Report to moderator
somac.
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2058
Merit: 1196

Never selling


View Profile
June 15, 2022, 07:13:57 AM

Blood on the streets is STRONG BUY. Avoid margin trading!


Absolutely, don't blow all your dollars though as things can still go lower. And if it doesn't go lower, that means the Fed has reversed course and you can buy the beginning of a major multi year uptrend.

What will the Fed do doesn't matter since they don't fight inflation anymore. All they do is trying to manage your expectations about inflation. And this time it is not enough, because this inflation is caused by structural changes in the economy.

Yes, but they still affect sentiment to a massive degree. When they reverse sentiment will go nuts and assets will skyrocket. If they don't ever reverse, many countries will end up like Sri Lanka and lending will cease as there will be no worthwhile collateral anymore. When the emperor has no clothes sentiment is everything.

I would also not say structural changes either, but rather political. Rate of inflation right now is decresing in everything except energy and food. Reverse what was done to Russia and end the ESG bullshit so we can pump fossil fuels again and inflation will vanish. At least for a while anyway.

Rate of inflation decreasing in everything except energy and food is exactly the sign of a structural change in economy. From now on industrial sector will be more important than financial sector. Production of food and energy will be more important than printing money and allocating them in a way so that the prices of food and energy be suppressed and artificially high standard of living be demonstrated to people.

Russia will never go back where it was. Now they know what are the benefits of being independent from the dollar and dollar derivatives like the euro, pound, yen etc.

Maybe, but the restrictions on energy are political, and they can be reversed. It is only structural if they don't reverse. If they don't, I think that these political restrictions are going to destroy the Biden adminstration, Trump will landlside into the WH in 2024 and he will absolutely let the fossil fuel free markets reign again. A question, if Trump was in the WH for this term do you think we would be in the same position?

We are not at peak oil nor peak gas or peak coal. This will change in the future of course, but that is not now.
Paashaas
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3430
Merit: 4358



View Profile
June 15, 2022, 07:17:44 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (7), Biodom (1), JayJuanGee (1), LoyceV (1)


https://twitter.com/StockmoneyL/status/1536795056618749953
Biodom
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3752
Merit: 3869



View Profile
June 15, 2022, 07:21:23 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), Paashaas (1)


would be nice if true going forward.
death_wish
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 70
Merit: 320

Take profit in BTC. Account PnL in BTC. BTC=money.


View Profile
June 15, 2022, 07:23:57 AM

Wow, that dog’s breakfast is possibly the worst-written nontrivial post that I have ever made.  Disorganized, rambling, with some disjointed parts where I went back and wrote a different logical point at length in the middle of a point.  Some things are confusing or missing, though it’s none of anyone’s business how my assets are structured, etc.; I spilled my guts too much as it is, and the relevant points are correctly described.

It is devolving into the antithesis of classic I AM HODLING.  I am not drunk, but bone-tired—physically exhausted, and also soul-weary—recovering from shock.  Please imagine how well you would take it, if you were suddenly, forcibly reduced to less than 0.05 BTC.


Post 3 / 2, because I am so worn out that I forgot how to count.  Zing!

Post 1/2... [...]

If newbies see the pain and anguish

Even his nickname shows the devastating effect of the leverage trading on the human mind.

[...] Well, now I only need to come up with about $877 to free my remaining itty-bitty bitcoin dust.  Whoopee.  I may dip into the emergency reserve, which I promised myself I would not touch for this.  Thinking it over now.  I am in a state of shock, not good for making financial decisions (with inaction also being a decision).  [Edit before posting:  I wrote this earlier, then realized I should take care of some business...  Slightly different situation now.] [...]

The good news:  After I wrote that but before I posted it, I found some dollars (stablecoin) that I had forgotten about.  Right under my nose—not even misplaced in my labyrinth of various wallets.  Forgetting about dollars, when I am desperate for that...  I am that worn down, worn out.  Maybe these dollars could have tipped the balance to help me avoid one of my recent liquidations, where the bot beat me by a hair.

Now, it worked out so that I could decrease my leverage while buying an itty-bit more bitcoin dust.  No, I should not be buying at all until the debt is gone!  But it is the first time that I have ever managed to buy BTC below 200 WMA, so I sort of did it on principle.  Now, I can brag that I have bought BTC below 200 WMA!  (Unfortunately, two orders of magnitude less BTC than I lost below 200 WMA—never mind my total BTC losses.)

Anyway, it has all become a farce.

I bought a little bit over a millibitcoin at $21,589 a few hours ago.  On margin.  But with much less impact on my % leverage than the HUGE amount of dollars I had just poured in.

Finding that loose change helped so much:  $48.82 is now a lot of money to me.

My finances have become dollhouse-sized.


Image:  A dollhouse handmade by someone’s grandfather (Dave Parker, 2007).  Surely a mansion, compared to what my scaled-down finances can afford.

A few months ago, as I nurtured my growing BTC long-term savings and a zoo of alts, I was throwing around $10k and $40k chunks of stablecoins.

Even after I got trapped in debt, when the market was up, I was doing up to $200k leveraged CFD-style maker trades on the USDT/USDC pair to help keep up with interest on my debt.  It is the one and only thing I tried with margin that did not wreck me.  Low-risk, low-reward:  I usually cleared about a 2 bps profit on each roundtrip.  When BTC rose, and I had more margin available, I could not afford to risk removing BTC collateral from the account; but atop my pile of debt, I could temporarily max out my leverage it for this.  Then, if BTC suddenly started crashing (as happened a few times while I was doing this), I could quickly unwind the leveraged stablecoin position with a lesser 1 bps profit, or at worst a 1 bps loss.  Besides BTC flash-crash which I risked anyway, my only nontrivial risk was a black swan depeg (like USDT briefly down to $0.85 a few years ago, or very briefly down to $0.95 last month), which could get me liquidated even if the de-pegged coin promptly re-pegged as USDT always has.  Oh, the joys of margin trading!

I am now the proud owner of 0.0495 BTC plus a handful of sats, with a liquidation price a little bit under $19.2k.  If Bitcoin somehow breaks below $20k, the whole account is so small that I can hold a dollhouse yard sale of miniaturized alt-dust to raise $50; another $50 infusion would push my liquidation price down by >$1,100.  Eventually, I will get around to freeing my itty-bitty dollhouse bitcoins from the encumbering debt of around $853.  Meanwhile, I can hold a dollhouse tea party.

$48.82 is now a lot of money to me.  Finding that loose change helped so much.
somac.
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2058
Merit: 1196

Never selling


View Profile
June 15, 2022, 07:50:48 AM

Price won't hold for much longer.
death_wish
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 70
Merit: 320

Take profit in BTC. Account PnL in BTC. BTC=money.


View Profile
June 15, 2022, 07:54:54 AM

Price won't hold for much longer.

That could be read two ways.
P2PECS
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 173
Merit: 74


View Profile
June 15, 2022, 07:56:50 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

$48.82 is now a lot of money to me.  Finding that loose change helped so much.

A very sad story for how smart you sound. The moral I draw from the story, regardless of whether it is true or not, as I cannot verify it, is that one should never be overconfident of one's intelligence. Doing so can have catastrophic consequences.
greensheep
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 278
Merit: 44


View Profile
June 15, 2022, 07:59:27 AM

Price won't hold for much longer.

Imagine we break 2017 all time high, that would be uncharted territory  Undecided
somac.
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2058
Merit: 1196

Never selling


View Profile
June 15, 2022, 08:00:00 AM

$48.82 is now a lot of money to me.  Finding that loose change helped so much.

A very sad story for how smart you sound. The moral I draw from the story, regardless of whether it is true or not, as I cannot verify it, is that one should never be overconfident of one's intelligence. Doing so can have catastrophic consequences.

I think these things happen because of addication. death_wish can shed some light on this I'm sure.
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2170
Merit: 1776


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
June 15, 2022, 08:01:19 AM


Explanation
ivomm
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1854
Merit: 2841


All good things to those who wait


View Profile
June 15, 2022, 08:02:39 AM

I've just bought 0.5BTC @ $20700. I'm ready to buy all the way down. Bring it on, bears! Next 1BTC buy is @18K.
somac.
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2058
Merit: 1196

Never selling


View Profile
June 15, 2022, 08:04:09 AM

Price won't hold for much longer.

Imagine we break 2017 all time high, that would be uncharted territory  Undecided

It looks very likely, especially with the Fed meeting coming up

What do we consider the 2017 high 19.6k or something?
Paashaas
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3430
Merit: 4358



View Profile
June 15, 2022, 08:05:15 AM


The opportunity for another bullrun before 2024 effect is featured. 4 year cycle's might be dead from now on.
somac.
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2058
Merit: 1196

Never selling


View Profile
June 15, 2022, 08:07:03 AM

Peak fear? This will affect the BTC price



death_wish
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 70
Merit: 320

Take profit in BTC. Account PnL in BTC. BTC=money.


View Profile
June 15, 2022, 08:15:53 AM

Price won't hold for much longer.

Imagine we break 2017 all time high, that would be uncharted territory  Undecided

It looks very likely, especially with the Fed meeting coming up

What do we consider the 2017 high 19.6k or something?

We are already far below the 2017 top.  I recently got in an argument about this—when BTC was around $28k.  Now, I do not think anyone can question my statement that $19k (hah, $19.6k) in 2017 dollars bought much more goods and services than $20,360 at this moment, as I write this.



Who puts August–September 2015 in a “bull market”?  (Or any of 2015?)

I was just saying something that implied August–September 2015 could be a precedent for us to scrape along/below 200 WMA for the next month.  (If you believe that past performance indicates anything about future results, etc.)

The chart itself shows that 2015 was a bear year—i.e., a great time to buy.  But the chart labels it “bull market” based on a technical indicator widget.  “Bear” or “bull” means the price, not an indicator someone believes to predict future movements in the price.
BitcoinBunny
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1456
Merit: 2494



View Profile
June 15, 2022, 08:18:44 AM

Price won't hold for much longer.

Imagine we break 2017 all time high, that would be uncharted territory  Undecided

It looks very likely, especially with the Fed meeting coming up

What do we consider the 2017 high 19.6k or something?

We are already far below the 2017 top.  I recently got in an argument about this—when BTC was around $28k.  Now, I do not think anyone can question my statement that $19k (hah, $19.6k) in 2017 dollars bought much more goods and services than $20,360 at this moment, as I write this.


True,
We are at around $17,250 in 2017 money based on CPI inflation since.
somac.
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2058
Merit: 1196

Never selling


View Profile
June 15, 2022, 08:19:00 AM

Shit is getting real folks, the emergency meetings have begun

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1162034-ecb-to-discuss-reinvestment-of-pepp-bonds-at
ImThour
Copper Member
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1400
Merit: 1512


Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k


View Profile
June 15, 2022, 08:20:00 AM

I've just bought 0.5BTC @ $20700. I'm ready to buy all the way down. Bring it on, bears! Next 1BTC buy is @18K.
Yesterday I went all-in however I quickly sold 50% because I wanted to wait for this weekly candle to close above 200 MA.
If weekly closes below 200 MA, then it will become resistance and prices will fall towards 300 MA which is at $16k.
Scary time, let's see how it goes from here.
Wilhelm
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265



View Profile
June 15, 2022, 08:20:45 AM

Someone needs a salmonslap to stop selling, the weak hands are pathetic.
I hope from now on these weak hands will only be able to own dust.

Hopefully FED news isn't too bad and we bounce to 300k  Wink
Pages: « 1 ... 30727 30728 30729 30730 30731 30732 30733 30734 30735 30736 30737 30738 30739 30740 30741 30742 30743 30744 30745 30746 30747 30748 30749 30750 30751 30752 30753 30754 30755 30756 30757 30758 30759 30760 30761 30762 30763 30764 30765 30766 30767 30768 30769 30770 30771 30772 30773 30774 30775 30776 [30777] 30778 30779 30780 30781 30782 30783 30784 30785 30786 30787 30788 30789 30790 30791 30792 30793 30794 30795 30796 30797 30798 30799 30800 30801 30802 30803 30804 30805 30806 30807 30808 30809 30810 30811 30812 30813 30814 30815 30816 30817 30818 30819 30820 30821 30822 30823 30824 30825 30826 30827 ... 33344 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!