The logistics add up fine if you assume that some poor decisions were made with regard to contracts which have no escape clause.
So your explanation is: BFL signed some bizarro contract with a shady supplier that is screwing them, but that somehow BFL can't lawyer their way out of it nor did they provide this explanation (which if true would completely absolve them of fault) to the community. What probably complicated the process is the provision of chips to be mounted. This affects the board manufacturer's standard supply chain and I'd expect would attract higher costs for retooling and any custom processes involved.
Nothing on their boards is outlandish. Everything can be had from standard suppliers (like digikey). They at least got that part right. This would in turn have affected the tendering process and may have resulted in selecting a manufacturer for the board who wouldn't charge as much for the custom aspects, but which can't do turnaround nearly as quickly.
There is nothing custom or crazy on the board, it is actually quite simple and straightforward. Notice that the people doing BFL DIY boards completed their projects and got them hashing in a short time with few problems. |
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Since we are feeling chatty today Joshua. Why does the company you represent violate FTC regulations with not providing refunds? The law is very easy to understand for someone of your mental caliber.
I saw some three syllable words in the FTC rules. I don't think he can handle that. That would explain why BFL is violating the law regarding refunds. Nice segway into a Public Service Announcement: If you have ordered from ButterFly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules). First ask ButterFly Labs for a refund, they will probably say no but you might get lucky. If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. Multiple customers have already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days. If you ordered via Bitcoin or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC at http://www.ftc.gov/complaint and they will advocate for you with ButterFly Labs to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises. You can also do a paper filing with the DA here: http://da.jocogov.org/complaint-formsThere are also several threads on how to get a refund from ButterFly Labs, here are two: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0 |
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Can't build things if there isn't the stock to do so. The output of BFL seems less constrained by their assembly and more by their suppliers not supplying parts fast enough or in sufficient quantity for them to massively scale up production. Also explains why some Mondays apparently have more shipped than others.
I agree that BFL is constrained by a lack of parts. I do find it strange that they have had 4 months while knowing exactly how many parts they needed to order. Supposedly they have all the chips they need (if they didn't, then there is no way they could get them in time from the new chip order to build devices to make the Sept 30th date). That leaves cases (which they said they had), power supplies (which they said they are not waiting on for shipping), screws (shouldn't be hard to order), heatsinks (also should not be hard to order), and PCBs. Now any decent PCB production house should be able to crank out thousands of the things in a couple of weeks. BFL knew how many boards they needed, why didn't they order them? I'd venture on issues with case delivery and boards. It would depend on their contracts, if they're locked in with no penalty clauses it would make it very difficult to have any recourse. Poor planning and/or logistics most likely. The reason I suspect cases are a possibility is that they are bulky and take up a lot of space. If inventory capacity is limited these would be one of the first things I'd minimise inventory stock of, and increase the number of smaller orders to ensure regular supply. Unfortunately, BFL claimed they had all the cases in stock. Might not be true, but that was their claim. Boards would store more easily and could be tested without cases for binning and burn-in. Downside is suppliers are probably more expensive and quantity runs considerably less variable. Running a smaller run would drop your priority down the list, and you wouldn't stand much chance of getting regular shipments of small batches.
In Silicon valley, you can turn a board order of < 10,000 units around in 2 weeks. All the on board components are standard and should be trivial to source. If BFL was trying to do placement and mounting of the components themselves (which would be retarded) then I could see the endless delays. Even I don't think they are that stupid, and even if they didn't outsource the placement until after they got the boards made, they still should be able to get 10K boards done in under a month. The logistics just don't add up. |
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Can't build things if there isn't the stock to do so. The output of BFL seems less constrained by their assembly and more by their suppliers not supplying parts fast enough or in sufficient quantity for them to massively scale up production. Also explains why some Mondays apparently have more shipped than others.
I agree that BFL is constrained by a lack of parts. I do find it strange that they have had 4 months while knowing exactly how many parts they needed to order. Supposedly they have all the chips they need (if they didn't, then there is no way they could get them in time from the new chip order to build devices to make the Sept 30th date). That leaves cases (which they said they had), power supplies (which they said they are not waiting on for shipping), screws (shouldn't be hard to order), heatsinks (also should not be hard to order), and PCBs. Now any decent PCB production house should be able to crank out thousands of the things in a couple of weeks. BFL knew how many boards they needed, why didn't they order them? |
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Here is the break down of the http://bfl.ptz.ro/ data into total devices in a 7PH/s orderbook. You said BFL had 70,000 orders and that they had shipped less than 5%. Given the current bitcoin network hash rate of 500 TH/s, plus the other ASIC vendors, and your estimate of a 7PH/s orderbook, BFL could not have shipped more than 5% of that order book unless they shipped over 350TH/s of product. You said that on average, each BFL order is for 100GH/s. Thus 70,000 orders, each for 100GH/s. There was a total of 7668 devices in that table ( http://bfl.ptz.ro/) for 4951 orders. This is an average of 1.548 devices per order. 1.548 x 70,000 is 108,400 devices total according to the distribution of http://bfl.ptz.ro/. 5% of that order book is 5,420 devices. If we subtract that from 108,400 we get 102,980 devices left in the backlog. 102,980 is more than 100,000, thus 100,000+ devices would be accurate. At 300 units per day, BFL would need 344 days to ship that many units. September 30th is only 35 days away. I see that you cannot even read the math I provided. Nor can you repeat it in your posts because it proves you wrong. Here is your original post on the subject: BFL: 7PH and rising.
Got a link or breakdown. 1) Has anyone compiled a guestimate of the amount of pre-orders. 2) I did a breakdown in a previous thread I cannot find ATM. Worked out to an average .1TH per BFL order and ~70k orders using the ~4900 known orders. 3) Refunds were not taken into account due to lack of information. 4) Monarchs were considered the "and rising" That sounds like 7PH/s and rising from you. The 70,000 orders from "4900 known orders" is the http://bfl.ptz.ro/ spreadsheet. |
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It only matters when BFL gets their shipment of chips in. They said it would take 100 days for the chip order. That means they needed to order in late June to get them by the last day in September. That also assumes that it won't be late, like every other thing BFL has attempted.
I doubt they will get the chips by September, but it is possible.
According to bcp19, BFL would have to assemble at least 100,000 devices before sept 30 (since bcp19 believes that BFL has 7PH/s of pre-orders). BFL has said that they can do 300 units per day max. It would take 334 days to process 100,000 units at that rate which means that BFL could not finish their backlog by September. So either bcp19 is way way off in his estimate of BFL pre-orders. Or he doesn't believe they could ship all their pre-orders by Sept 30 (would require shipping 2800 units a day).
I never said 100,000 devices, your lies are getting larger by the day. You still cannot live in reality. Yes actually you did. Your math says 100,000 devices. 70,000 orders you said. 100GH per order average you said. 7 PH/s total you said. According to the distribution on your data set at http://bfl.ptz.ro that works out to over 100,000 devices. Pre-orders stopped April 5th. You seem to think they need to catch up with everything. Reality check.
April 1st if you count when BFL claims they shipped their first device. But we are talking backlog, not just "pre-orders". You also discount refunds and upgrades.
You said 7PH/s and risingContinue your delusions, I enjoy the laughs.
Guess you didn't take any math courses at MIT huh?    Once again, the 7ph was an ESTIMATE of the TOTAL ORDERBOOK before refunds were calculated. You have this insane need to cut and paste snippets out of context as if they are facts, yet you are still wrong. Backpedaling from the 7PH/s you were so vehemently defending in other threads already? How many refunds could there be? You claimed there was a massive set of mini-rig orders operating in stealth. Surely they didn't ask for refunds? *I* said pre-order, YOU said backlog. Semantics, since they mean the same thing in regards to the shipping comment.
Nope. The thread says backlog. You asked to define backlog. Your original post said orders. Only now are you saying "pre-orders". Still, TOTAL ORDERBOOK. GUESTIMATE.
And again, you are childish AND purile.
Still backpedaling. Did you finally realize that 7PH/s is a ludicrous figure? Do you want to change it? You seem to know how to make an estimate, let's here yours then. You keep telling me what I am doing wrong, show me what is right. I cannot accept your assertions any longer until I see YOUR mathematical proof. Get your pen and paper going. Stop denegrating others and PROVE you are right. You have ALL the infomation you need on that website. I am waiting.
I have given you mathematical proof that your assertions of a 7PH/s orderbook (refunds and cancellations remove people from the order book FYI, you may want to be pedantic about something else) are inconsistent with the rest of your opinions. It is also inconsistent with BFL's opinions about their ability to ship and their completion date. BFL talks about clearing their backlog. This thread talks about clearing backlog. You are the only one talking about "pre-orders" now. Here are your original words: " 2) I did a breakdown in a previous thread I cannot find ATM. Worked out to an average .1TH per BFL order and ~70k orders using the ~4900 known orders.
3) Refunds were not taken into account due to lack of information." from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=278384.msg2996768#msg2996768Orders. Not pre-orders. |
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BFL: 7PH and rising.
Got a link or breakdown. 1) Has anyone compiled a guestimate of the amount of pre-orders. 2) I did a breakdown in a previous thread I cannot find ATM. Worked out to an average .1TH per BFL order and ~70k orders using the ~4900 known orders. 3) Refunds were not taken into account due to lack of information. 4) Monarchs were considered the "and rising" For posterity. |
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<bs snipped> Still waiting on that breakdown from http://bfl.ptz.ro/ that you claim to be so smart in doing. I care not for your continued BS. Oh. I figured the math was so trivial that someone who attended MIT could do it in their head. If you were waiting on it, you should have mentioned this. You said BFL had 70,000 orders and that they had shipped less than 5%. Given the current bitcoin network hash rate of 500 TH/s, plus the other ASIC vendors, and your estimate of a 7PH/s orderbook, BFL could not have shipped more than 5% of that order book unless they shipped over 350TH/s of product. You said that on average, each BFL order is for 100GH/s. Thus 70,000 orders, each for 100GH/s. There was a total of 7668 devices in that table ( http://bfl.ptz.ro/) for 4951 orders. This is an average of 1.548 devices per order. 1.548 x 70,000 is 108,400 devices total according to the distribution of http://bfl.ptz.ro/. 5% of that order book is 5,420 devices. If we subtract that from 108,400 we get 102,980 devices left in the backlog. 102,980 is more than 100,000, thus 100,000+ devices would be accurate. At 300 units per day, BFL would need 344 days to ship that many units. September 30th is only 35 days away. |
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Nobody posted anything contrary to me. Not even sure what that means, Josh.
edit:
Maybe you can explain, you are so smart!
You deleted Red_Wolf_2's post more than once. You obviously did not like that he disagreed with you about me being Josh. He also said something about int03h who turned out to be Ivan. Guess you just need your talking heads to agree with you and anything else gets deleted. Who cares! take this to direct post, and get a room! Enough already! Agreed, for the love of (insert deity here) would a moderator PLEASE step in and shut down this giant pile of useless non-hardware related posts that are cluttering up the forums? They are supposed to be for discussing custom hardware, not who is and isn't "shady" (to use a phrase Bicknellski likes to use so much) It is more about the lack of hardware. If somebody could step in and PLEASE make BFL ship the devices they promised, then we wouldn't need threads like this one. Also, the BFL fan-bois wouldn't have to beg to make it go away. So unseemly seeing them grovel.  |
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The forum is overrun with the hate of the day with various "hardware"(/vaporware) vendors, it has become hard to discuss anything else. Many of the participants are behaving like animals.
I'm sensitive to the risk of suppressing complaints. There have been many scam hardware "vendors" of various degrees. People should be able to communicate about the risks, seek recourse, etc. At the same time, these complaints have reached an intensity where they are self defeating. If you tell me vendor X is a scam I don't know if its because they are or because you're crazy, because you're a shill for another vendor, because you're a shill for them trying to make the complainers look crazy, if you're a miner trying to scare people out of mining, etc. As a warning this information is no longer very helpful.
I have multiple people I know (and have met in person and know not to be socks) begging me to do something about the sad state of this subforum. But I'm at a loss... how do we defeat troll culture when it's taking the form of "concern troll" about concerns we should be careful to preserve? And how can we do it without making me and miningbuddy censors who have to vet every single post?
Does anyone have any great ideas?
Firstly, I'd like to note for the record, that humans are animals. My solution: 1) make "concern troll" posts take the form of iambic pentameter. 2) make fanboi posts have to be haiku form that are also palindromes The enforcement of those two criteria should easy to automate. If that doesn't warm your cockles, then perhaps two separate forums for custom hardware, Shipping & Vaporware. BFL singles & Jalapenos discussions would be in Shipping. Monarch discussions would be in Vaporware. Make exit from the vaporware forum contingent on you fondling a physical example of of the device (in a vat of mineral oil and then posting the video on YouTube). |
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Months ago I paid 1 BTC each for 2 miners and 1 BTC in shipping to my country (I live in a technological wasteland called Australia), my miners are so far from ROI I can't express it in words.
Don't worry, bcp19 says BTC will go to $1000 and you will get "ROI". Actually, worry. A lot. That statement is a lot like your long con, until it happens, you can discount it and discount it and discount it. Up until it becomes true. Which will come true first? The supposed long con or BTC=$1000? I bet the latter. Captured for posterity purposes since bcp19 has been ninja editing his posts. |
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You are a moron...and have no idea how any of this stuff works
...Computer science ... yeah right !!
Lol, obviously sarcasm escapes you. Have you seen that Doctor for your depression yet? You need to go soon, your life could be in danger if left untreated. bcp19 didn't even know that Bitfury was making their own ASIC. He still thinks BFL has 7PH/s worth of pre-orders. Oh, and that is the second time bcp19 has claimed to know things about computers. I didn't screenshot the first though. Good time for: PSA: If you have ordered from ButterFly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules). First ask ButterFly Labs for a refund, they will probably say no but you might get lucky. If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. Multiple customers have already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days. If you ordered via Bitcoin or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC at http://www.ftc.gov/complaint and they will advocate for you with ButterFly Labs to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises. You can also do a paper filing with the DA here: http://da.jocogov.org/complaint-formsThere are also several threads on how to get a refund from ButterFly Labs, here are two: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0 |
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150TH of avalon chips = speculation.
Um, no. That is from the spreadsheet of orders that Avalon released. Plus some math to multiply the hash rate of each chip times the number of chips. Is that where you got lost? The math? Maybe that's what BitFury is using and you're doubling up
Bitfury designed their own chip. Not surprised you don't have any clue about who they since: Name: bcp19 Date Registered: July 05, 2013, 03:28:38 PM Yes, really. You should try google. It is pretty cool. Everyone from MIT is using it. "Batch three have completely left our hands, may DHL be swift in their deliveries." - http://www.avalon-asics.com/ reported on Aug 9th. They had been shipping for a couple of weeks prior to that based on reports from the field. 5 days ago, BitFury was at 40TH, today 90TH. 50TH in 5 days!!!!! Hot damn, that's freaking amazing! 90% of network increase from 1 company in 5 days!
:redflag
That is what companies who can properly outsource board production are capable of. So they set up 80 fully populated back-planes in 5 days. That is 16 per day. 2 guys could do that easy. Take board out of box, plug into backplane. Rinse-repeat, once populated plug into network. Turn on power switch. |
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Funny how my reply vanished so quickly.... Wonder why that might be?
Because you added nothing of value and you are a known fanboi. Watch I'll do it again. You won't make them mad. They are used to being whipped into line with deleted posts from their time spent on BFL forums. |
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Phinn, one word of advice from a friend: STOP!
This is the thread you worried about? There is far far worse from PG around. Weirdly, this one is semi-relevant to the forum and is not a scam accusation. Not worried about any thread. Worried about Phinn's obsession. OCDer gotta OC I guess. |
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$0.30+ per kWh reporting in  Hello fellow Californian? |
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They will be replaced by more energy efficient ASICs or will be run in areas where electricity is dirt cheap.
Once we reach technological brick wall (10nm), the network hash rate will level off and difficulty might actually stay flat or go down.
At that level, mining=electricity & hosting costs + a tiny profit.
The economic brick wall is 28nm. 20nm is beyond rediculously expensive for anyone who doesn't know their own fab (Intel, Samsung). Nobody is predicting high availability of 20nm in 2014 either. Nobody (not even Intel is using 14nm) given how parallel Bitcoin mining is the only advantage of going to a smaller process is when the cost per transistor is lower. That usually takes 2-4 years. So 20nm probably won't make sense even in 2015 or 2016. So while I agree with your final sentence replace 10nm with 28nm. The market will become highly saturated and mining margins will be a small percentage over electrical cost of the most efficient miners. Have a less efficient miner, have higher than normal electrical costs, paying for expensive datacenter space expect it to only be a question of how long before your net operating margin goes negative. I am making a 11 nm hashing chip. It does 800GH/s and I am selling them for 200 BTC each. Pre-order now. http://www.Minegoto11.com |
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Phinn, one word of advice from a friend: STOP!
This is the thread you worried about? There is far far worse from PG around. Weirdly, this one is semi-relevant to the forum and is not a scam accusation. |
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Months ago I paid 1 BTC each for 2 miners and 1 BTC in shipping to my country (I live in a technological wasteland called Australia), my miners are so far from ROI I can't express it in words.
Don't worry, bcp19 says BTC will go to $1000 and you will get "ROI". Actually, worry. A lot. |
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It only matters when BFL gets their shipment of chips in. They said it would take 100 days for the chip order. That means they needed to order in late June to get them by the last day in September. That also assumes that it won't be late, like every other thing BFL has attempted.
I doubt they will get the chips by September, but it is possible.
According to bcp19, BFL would have to assemble at least 100,000 devices before sept 30 (since bcp19 believes that BFL has 7PH/s of pre-orders). BFL has said that they can do 300 units per day max. It would take 334 days to process 100,000 units at that rate which means that BFL could not finish their backlog by September. So either bcp19 is way way off in his estimate of BFL pre-orders. Or he doesn't believe they could ship all their pre-orders by Sept 30 (would require shipping 2800 units a day).
I never said 100,000 devices, your lies are getting larger by the day. You still cannot live in reality. Yes actually you did. Your math says 100,000 devices. 70,000 orders you said. 100GH per order average you said. 7 PH/s total you said. According to the distribution on your data set at http://bfl.ptz.ro that works out to over 100,000 devices. Pre-orders stopped April 5th. You seem to think they need to catch up with everything. Reality check.
April 1st if you count when BFL claims they shipped their first device. But we are talking backlog, not just "pre-orders". You also discount refunds and upgrades.
You said 7PH/s and risingContinue your delusions, I enjoy the laughs.
Guess you didn't take any math courses at MIT huh? |
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