Clearly the nick indicates ex navy seals team 6, best not to over predict where and when a person might pop up.   I managed to get 2 GT from the recent promotion which Im quite happy with as I was too tired to do more rolls and I lost count also.

The BTC price has notably acted out of its recent range and is now bullish so be optimistic.   Always price can do anything but its acting very well imo with regular intervals higher just needs to confirm on wider time frames.  I did bet a range of prices but mostly down bias not up so doubt I do well in that respect but its a hedged bet   Also I did use up all my wheel spins, if ever higher that now makes sense to have done so.

Great breakout here, be Bullish for this movement.  Ideally we close at 70k or higher on the daily bars right till end of week on Sunday and that'd setup a whole row of further gains higher quite possibly.

It was feasible to close down on that recent weakness, at the very best only go sideways but its defiantly turned the last 6 days into higher lows and resolved to attempt a good break out of the March range.  Just have to watch if it can achieve a higher ATH then recently sent, doing that much is the clear signal but I think its already indicating as much.

Dont save Dollars to be brief, it wont reward you.  Dollars are debt based and you are juggling politics and an unstable monetary base, the import export balance and a variety of considerations.   Dollar can gain at some times like any asset, you may even appear to gain an interest return but overall the record is clear; losses continually for over a century now.  
Certainly its true since the 1970's that Dollar cannot its lost value, the benefits if any are paid elsewhere not to holders of this promissory note.

Savings is something you can put your head on at night and know it will still exist in the morning.  The ideal being a gain on what you saved like a good harvest.  The Dollar story is about promising to only lose you 2% except when it trips up then maybe even more.  Maybe one day it loses 100%, actually thats almost a certainty hence saving is contradictory tbh.

If it gives a yield its just about possible I guess, what I think more likely is speculative buying as an alternate to BTC.    On the way upwards, ETH and many alternative block chains have a potential to gain more.    Just like silver can gain more in percentage terms then gold does largely because today nobody cares about silver too much beyond industry where as gold has never stopped being used as money at least by some.    Even copper has been a monetary metal, it has future value I'd rather take that bet as an easy to foresee outcome.

Long term, final destination I dont think Bitcoin gives way to Ether.   This iteration of ETH is a split of the original classic ETH of course, I know that might be ancient history to some but its indication of the future likelihood of one protocol becoming superior to the other.   Maybe the most useful thing would be in comparing the two different ETH and which might grow more, appeal to the masses most easily during a bullish period across crypto.    

In any harder bearish market BTC will out perform.    I like silver, I consider it superior on a personal level for its varied utility but in monetary terms I dont rate it as the highest so I will state the same of BTC & ETH or ETC.

Dollar index has risen about 2% since the first week of March, its not yet lost its higher level of movement.   Thats the one I watch but its a macro market and FIAT isnt reliable as a natural market its politics partly too.   So the Federal reserve despite speculation is not likely to drop rates just yet, I do wonder if they do it at all this year and surprise many with a harder stance.    The problem is inflation which they hope to curtail is so elusive and appears in many different sectors separately.

Housing and rising prices there is not contained enough to have FED believe inflation is falling in the hard way it needs to.   In the end they are nowhere near to reversing all the QE done previous so the idea inflation is ever defeated seems like nonsense to me but even by their own logic there are reasons for them not to reduce rates or allow attempts at easier growth policy.

Malaysia also has tourism as well, many do have additional possibilities in their economy besides agriculture.  The most obvious benefit to agriculture is to cut imports or a requirement for reliance on other nations for basic needs of the population.   Malaysia has technology its not nearly an agrarian economy as that perspective would suggest, I think they have many options available for growth within their economic sectors not just one choice which is dangerous if you think about.
  I know someone from Malaysia who works in telecoms for a Japanese firm who are desperate for staff, reason being they are fully capable of fluent formal Japanese speech with customers and that made their labor available internationally through their skills.

Farming crops can fail and over reliance is a dangerous prospect for an entire nation to face as history would reflect.   In the example I gave Malaysia is exporting its labor and Japan has a requirement to import that skilled labor quite often as they famously have a skewed demographic and falling working population.   Not everyone knows this is also true of even China who will suffer consequences of less workers every year, this will alter their economy.

Its not very important anymore, it got less important with every halvening and people never adjusted for that factor of decline in how they rate halvening effects.   ETF news and almost anything else globally economically significant is of more importance to the Dollar and so likelihood of BTC prospects and price targets like this.

If Federal reserve performs no interest cuts this year defying expectations of many market operators you will have a far greater effect in play then the already known halvening effect.   If DXY Dollar index dips below 100 now, thats big to me and could be a downtrend and that also would matter more then purely the news within BTC.  
 Also the 2024 year in the title is the surprising part to me because its asking for too much too soon, even if you attribute a great significance to halvening then its not this year that matters.   The event itself alters block reward then it only starts to matter afterwards, every 10 minutes it counts a little bit more.  

Even a dripping tap will fill a bucket its true it can matter in time, but thats 2025 imo and beyond.  Speculators move in anticipation of that tightening move in the protocol but thats how we explain todays price not trip ourselves up over expecting future gains.   Its a little too much without greater justification I dont think 190k this cycle at all but sure its possible in future.

I won a bet with a free bet offer and the bigger more remarkable fact was I was able to keep winning enough times to qualify on actually withdrawing that free bonus.   Everyone will recognize that being lucky on the offer is a possible but to get permission for withdrawing free cash is like 10 or 20x maybe more times harder because free cash offers are only retained as long as you keep gambling with a consistent win.  

Considering Im not a giant gambler with big offers given to them perhaps and I had nothing big balance wise besides especially at the time, it was truly most fortuitous luck to win in a streak like that on free bet cash.

If you use a mobile phone you have benefitted from Africa produce  almost certainly, not only does Africa the continent exist you rely on their existence and hard labor to continue.    The only negative argument for Africa is the shear amount of wasted potential in a variety of ways.  IF you were asking for investment with possible returns and growth then there is nowhere else as capable and under utilized at present.

The question really is can you improve the situation existing in many African countries to better enable and enrich that countries population.   Can you make order from chaos in some situations, its not straight forward and you could face armed resistance to your idealistic capitalist aspirations, priorities may exist elsewhere like protecting the heritage and natural wealth of the country.

Many firms are accused of exploitation and not building up a country while residing in and benefitting there as guests.  I think its China which has tried to demonstrate investment but they are controversial in demanding too much ownership and power over people and assets long term in exchange for their investment.

Ironically its smartest kind of betting really, he got fairly even odds it wasnt perfect but the gamble was clear in both its risk and positive and negative outcomes.  He made a plan, he had his budget decided beforehand and he got maximum publicity and probably some kind of wage for making it into a TV show.   I wish I was this smart on every bet really, most of us are casual and dont plan anything much beforehand.  

100 seperate bets dont make it superior to this one large bet just adds up to the same thing in the end.  He bet alot to win alot and was just doing it all at once which is time efficient at least.

No I do think its possible this time though the maths behind it is funny perhaps.   If 3 million people take part in this promotion and they get say 2 Golden ticket and maybe they already have 2 or 3 themselves just from normal use of the site in some way and GT win on wheel spins maybe.    So collectively thats perhaps 9 million GT tickets and the result of the draw could result in someone with very few tickets winning, not as they alone had a great chance but because multiple instances of this outcome were entered into the draw.


Those kind of figures even vs a big gambler will swamp the odds, its making it highly possible for an outlier in appearance to actually win.   We  may end up seeing 'the little guy' winning this one  and its justifiably a possibility.

At end of last year 100k seemed a target too high.  It wasnt edited in, that was there from the beginning so all votes were cast with the same choices.

The choices at the end are just the wild card answers,  100k seemed a wild choice to me but to some extent this is bias in the questionnaire which I think does happen in all kinds of polls.   People asking a set of questions expect a certain range of results but with Bitcoin anything can happen.

Of course I would love if BTC made 100k in a fairly short time period of just this year.   42.3k was open price of Jan 1st.   My general take is many moves are reversed, we lose as much as we gain in cycles, bullish trends would just be where the losses are less in some amount then the gains.   

If the number one rule for Bitcoin is volatility we can move back to 52k or somewhere like that and then everyone's perceptions and preferred choices will alter again.   I mentioned locking this thread so we only update the idea after big movements in BTC price action and its always vs that end year target guess.

   I reckon we aint moving much till April & might be a month from now or longer..   Look at the daily bars now, every bar is smaller then the last we are being squished till implosion or explosion ?   Thankyou for all commentary 

Big assumptions quite obvious even now is the Dollar will be worth less in 2030 then now, its only the extent to which it declines.    The Federal reserve has their plan of 2% decline every year and they equate this to growth and stability in some way, it does also indicate they have no intention of allowing a hard money or appreciation in FIAT assets to occur.

Prices of almost everything else will likely be higher when priced in Dollars presuming ongoing demand and flat growth.   A few markets might have growth above demand and so prices might have a chance to drop.
 Many people hope technology has growth that equates to price cuts for the same amount of power that's basically a premise of BTC blockchain mining hence the tightening from halvening we are about to have.

The worst bets when you are a kid are dares to take risks, this story doesnt involve me but I know others did bets or dares where you win if you complete the challenge.   The worst challenge was to zipline down a live electric cable, from a railway bridge you could jump on and get down to the ground.  One person jumped on with a metal watch on his wrist, it doesn't work out well for him and he got electrical burns.   Thats the worst kind of gambling, with money all that can happen is you go broke but amazingly there is worse behavior where people risk there lives for a bet, common in drag racing with cars also often deaths can occur.

Always watch with a bet but the game must come first imo, if you are to get distracted and have to constantly manage a live bet then you can end up losing parts of the game which is unfortunate.    Nothing wrong with a bet you close early because you already got most of the profits showing and want to just enjoy the game, I find if its open Im still distracted a bit so I will close out at least half my bets on a game so I have less to worry about at times.  

Depends on the game also, some games dont turn out so interesting to watch so maybe you dont care and let the bet run if its viable or not worth closing out.

ETF definitely seemed to ignite interest, it doesn't have to be direct exactly but allow a wider market to access BTC and also the news itself gaining attention I think that was something that helped the trend.     I always look at market pricing as a balance and anything which pushes the balance to positive or negative can be a tipping point; people then notice the positive bias and dive in to amplify the effect.    Because of that noticeable speculative effect, BTC price tends to over do itself so we can expect a pullback hence right now its all in line imo

A push forward, now a pullback and eventually we accumulate and rise again.   Seems we have more time to wait for a positive phase to become more obvious.   I will lock this thread again at end of the forum day because its Year end guesses - just until an interesting thing happens, I imagine sometime in April we get a movement past the range of March.    

Still can we guess higher from this 65k BTC price now upto Year end or is it sideways or down from here, I still imagine negatives that are possible.   Always wider world news can be negative, etc.   overall I'm bullish and I believe uncapping the ATH like this leads to more sooner or later, for now its fizzled out some.

Funny what people speculate on as being related, not everything is see through in cause and effect.  FJ is definitely super long term operation, I was on their original sig campaign way back and the one some years after that through a very harsh pullback into the lower 4 figures for BTC they seen it all at this point; its not really a wider sign if they stop or start some activity so far as I know.    Good company they kept my balance safe even when I forgot about it for literally years and years, have to repeat they are a good sort as its least I can do.  Same for Coinbase, no idea how I stumbled into trying to register a new account forgetting I used them to buy pc gear in 2014 so I already had it.

  Im a big fan of any long term operation in BTC, I think they are quite vital staging points for people to interact with and rely on as a solid landscape across BTC.   So FBC is awesome and others.  Even still, FJ is just 1 place, I wouldn't take that as a wider point to speculate on BTC unless there is a wider trend or news etc.


BTC has both lower highs for over a week and also higher lows which is a constricting range.  Apparently diminuendo is the word for the opposite of crescendo but if you could hear BTC as a tone it'd be more obvious, its a distinct pattern for sure imo.  The peak and diminish to a pattern is a natural movement, I was watching some multi decade traders but they recognize profit taking afaik.   I do expect some conclusion but Im not thinking we get it before month end.   My theory some emphasis always occurs around the tax year end but obviously people thinking of halvening etc.  it can be many things, simply consolidation & later greater range is expected, a break.

There is reasoning to avoid multiple confusions that the military use one time with offsets, Zulu time or basically similar to GMT.    Iam surprised to find the whole of India is one single time zone, thats alot of people and distance surely with all different sun rises and sets.   [Amazing the time zone is half an hour not a full hour from others, very unique ]

Anyway this prediction of a few days is a time period very short term, I missed the thread but its pretty random to predict I guess so I would left it for others.  We've been mostly pinging back and forth in a range seems like; I was coming round to thinking we meet the 50 day average which is not the correct format for this contest I know but BTC is up in the air and everything seems a moving target right now.

This is not new, they have been fighting on that border for a decade or more.  Is it escalating is the question and is there really any advantage to what war would occur.  Hostile and actual intent to make war backed by the idea of gaining something would be two different things.   I dont see either party gaining only losing people and probably gaining no useful ground that makes any difference to each country.

Important note here for me personally is neither nation has oil where as you compare Iran and Iraq a border dispute there could involve the gain of maybe billions of value in oil reserves for that land.  Some useless land on the India China border doesnt seem as appealing in any dispute to me.   Without further knowledge of incentives I doubt it, perhaps there is other perspectives but plain hostilities is not unfortunately that abnormal even if people die I dont see an entire country dedicate itself to a war for those reasons.

For the end of month price bet soon to close, I read some of the odds & they are out of sequence appears like and probably too good value in some cases, doesn't mean they win but comparatively worth a try I figured.

As always there is no right answer, I was thinking earlier I bet BTC just drifts now.  Bit of a ping pong but like we're under water slow motion style  If we get a breakout and its a surprise thats always my ideal, that occurred on the last instance of this bet / guessing game and I was found wanting in my choices, I underestimated the move when at least a tiny bit placed on the edges of your expected trajectory for BTC.  It is worth placing on the outlier outcomes.    This time I dont feel a momentum is there ready to kick in, last time it slotted into place just in time.