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2601  Economy / Speculation / Re: Pool: Hypothetical scenario if/when Mt. Gox returns good as new on: February 22, 2014, 06:53:49 PM
Voted on slow recovery at best or Mark runs with BTC to found a new company Smiley
2602  Economy / Speculation / Re: Official End of Mt Gox thread on: February 22, 2014, 06:51:04 PM
Now the real question here is JPY withdrawals (domestic within Japan) in the last two weeks. How are they proceeding?

Seem to be taking 3-4 weeks, faster if you have a Japanet bank account, according to https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=428242.100

This JPY delay is what finally convinced me that MTGox is insolvent.

You're going to be in for a bit of a shock when BTC withdrawals start up again and things return to normal.



Do you really believe it will return to normal? After taking so many people hostage for this long?
You probably have all your BTC in there....

We don't have to believe. We know. Knowing is better than believing. And "normal" is defined to be the same as it was before the halt.

And what do you know? Who is "we"? And "knowing" is only trick of your consciousness Smiley.
2603  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Forecasts on: February 22, 2014, 06:24:52 PM
Short term: $1200 by July 2014

Medium term: $10,000 by April 2015

Medium-long term: $500,000 by 2020

Long term: $1,000,000 by 2040

 Smiley
I think we're at 1 million before 2020.

I don't think so.
90% of all bitcoin holders would already sell if they were offered 100K for 1 BTC.
You mean kids with weak hands, investors (and real men) will hodl.

I'm pro HODL but 100K for 1BTC would mean that I can live a comfortable life and do what I want without having to work.
Walking away with millions might seem weak but who cares Smiley

Waiting for 2040 means you will be 26 years older and assuming your atleast 18 you would be in or after your midlife crisis (44 years at least). Yeah buy a porsche and do a comb-over ....

100K is the point at which I would cash out some to live the life I dreamt of. I will HODL some for the 1000K+ Cheesy
2604  Economy / Speculation / Re: What's with this small rally? on: February 22, 2014, 06:11:10 PM
supposedly the rumor is that someone on reedit or something showed proof of Mt Gox allowing bitcoin withdrawals.

Read the article. It's full of assumptions. Could be the MtGOX guys getting all the BTC out while everyone remains trapped.

My assumptions based on more articles:
They moved the corporate headoffice to a virtual one. Classic move if you're liquidating all corporate assets and don't want customers to know yet.
Once the lawsuits come there is nothing left to reposes and no CEO to sue only an orphaned email box, phone line and an old server in some closet.
2605  Economy / Speculation / Re: Official End of Mt Gox thread on: February 22, 2014, 06:06:45 PM
Now the real question here is JPY withdrawals (domestic within Japan) in the last two weeks. How are they proceeding?

Seem to be taking 3-4 weeks, faster if you have a Japanet bank account, according to https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=428242.100

This JPY delay is what finally convinced me that MTGox is insolvent.

You're going to be in for a bit of a shock when BTC withdrawals start up again and things return to normal.



Do you really believe it will return to normal? After taking so many people hostage for this long?
You probably have all your BTC in there....
2606  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Bitcoin recovery has started. on: February 22, 2014, 06:05:06 PM
The recovery has started.  Shocked

Next stop $1000!!!  Grin

Your forum username is very apt.

Should be noob2014 unless he's a 13 year old Cheesy
2607  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mt.Gox Bitcoin Withdrawls coming soon (Proof) Feb. 22, TX on the move on: February 22, 2014, 06:02:43 PM
It was Karpeles moving bitcoins to sell on other exchange... Cheesy
Or he's moving his BTC to another wallet before he announce bankruptcy  Grin Grin Grin

I believe this to be true.

If it is not this will be an EPIC climb for bitcoin when everyone goes bezerk to get at the cheapies Cheesy. Hope it will trigger all bots making a strong climb to a new ATH. Smiley
2608  Economy / Speculation / Re: what happens to BTC-e & bitstamp price if Gox open withdraws? on: February 22, 2014, 04:30:21 PM
yes i understand gox price would go to the moon, but BTC-e + stamp prices are the topic sir Smiley
Prices will dip momentarily on other exchanges due to the influx of scared people leaving Gox that haven't already, eventually we will see a new ATH as bitcoin will have survived its biggest test yet!

+1 I hope

Other exchanges will dip due to the fact that people run from GOX and push btc/fiat into any other exchange for any price (FEAR). MtGOX will plummet and other exchanges will skyrocket.
Once MtGOX floods with people who want the cheap coins (GREED) it will go back up too.

Hopefully this results in a bull market due to rising prices, causing bitcoin to go back into the TO DA MOON! mode Smiley.
2609  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mt.Gox Bitcoin Withdrawls coming soon (Proof) Feb. 22, TX on the move on: February 22, 2014, 04:23:49 PM
I read the replies and there is no proof on bitcoin withdrawls only SEPA that takes days, weeks months.
The bitcoin transactions could be MtGOX themselves pulling out the money.
2610  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here's what the Mt. Gox Press Release will say and why on: February 22, 2014, 12:17:07 PM
well, my speculation as to the announcement was off, but the announcement is still consistent with what I believe to be happening. the announcement was carefully worded and certainly has nothing to do with malleability. "security problems" and "technical challenges" is not mentioned as having anything to do with malleability or hacking, and could easily be referring to financial security and order fulfillment technical challenges.

the office building move due to security problems is worrisome though. certainly no one walked in with a gun and stole the btc. even if they did, moving office buildings is not a solution.

so what is "moving back into the old office" a solution to?

1) not being able to afford the new facility anymore (a move as part of a business plan to get back on track financially). this is a sudden move, and it seems odd that it coincides with the downtime. it seems like they would just move back quietly when no one was looking if financial hard times had been building (which was my speculation). this is more indicative of a sudden, unexpected financial loss... perhaps the malleability issue really is at the core and mt gox had a huge qty of coins stolen at nearly the same time as SR2.0. the idea that they really were hacked lines up with this action, as much as i doubted it to be true. i guess they wouldn't want to announce a huge loss through hacking since it would demolish the exchange immediately.

2) i think, very unfortunately, that this moving offices lines up better with my original speculation - due solely to the cryptic references to the japanese gov't meetings, and "making sure they were doing everything in accordance with local law." this just doesn't fit the hacking and sudden loss of coins theory very well (they may have gone to the authorities over it... but "following all laws"? what could they be doing, putting out a hit on the theives?). what does fit it well?

Bankruptcy.

bankruptcy with a gov't contingency that they can attempt to still operate the exchange in order to attempt pay back whatever portion of (apparently unpayable) debt they can manage. in bankruptcy, existing nonessential assets are seized, often the leadership is replaced (watch for a mention of staff leaving or Mark leaving), and the company is allowed to operate once again. Unfortunately, the bankruptcy plan process can take a while - perhaps longer than they thought?

About the office building
Read: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ygedk/mtgoxs_new_office_is_literally_a_virtual_office/

They are backing out of their assets so they can vanish into thin air....
The security problem is the fact that lawsuits could get their money they are taking time to put it into an offshore account Wink
2611  Economy / Speculation / Re: What will the price of BTC on Mt. Gox be tommorow? on: February 22, 2014, 12:09:47 PM
Final results
Quote
What will the price of BTC on Mt. Gox be tommorow?  (Voting closed: February 21, 2014, 06:36:22 PM)
<$5    - 11 (23.9%)
<$10    - 0 (0%)
<$25    - 0 (0%)
<$50    - 5 (10.9%)
<$75    - 5 (10.9%)
<$100    - 18 (39.1%)
>$1000    - 7 (15.2%)
Total Voters: 46
Price has been 100-160 since the end of the poll. Adding new poll now

POLL FAIL!!!
The right answer wasn't in the poll answers Cheesy
2612  Economy / Speculation / Re: Poll: Future of gox? (Many possible options) on: February 22, 2014, 12:06:19 PM
MtGOX has hurt their reputation in a very bad way.
I think their efforts will fail and MtGOX will be either forced to close shop or atleast become a minor exchange.
Maybe they will start a new exchange under a different name to get rid of this bad reputation.

Update: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ygedk/mtgoxs_new_office_is_literally_a_virtual_office/
MtGOX will vanish with your money Smiley
2613  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you really think the bottom of bitcoin price after MTGOX is down? on: February 22, 2014, 12:00:24 PM
bitcoin will be on a slow bleed down until some really big fundamental shift happens

such as

a big country bailing in all bank deposits

or

amazon.com accepting bitcoin


something along those lines. Right now its a non stop stream of bad news.


i dont care what price it goes down to, whether its 400 or 30. Will not buy until there is that game changing piece of news.



This big positive news for Bitcoin could happen sooner than expected
The dollar will plunge within 2years, Big western Banks will fail within 3years, corruption is high, taxes are increasing; it will seem extremely sweet to have a few bitcoins when the shi.t hit the fan

I'm pro bitcoin but if the dollar plunges in 2 years and banks fail in 3 years then it will be the end of America and not the beginning of bitcoin.
Bitcoin cannot build the infrastructure that fiat has in that short of a period and have everyone adopt it. We need years of investing in infrastructure before that can happen.

Look at technology like electric cars and mobile phones ... it took years before every city had cell towers and it will take some years before you can refuel your electric car everywhere....
2614  Economy / Speculation / Re: rip mt gox, is bitstamp following? "Bitstamp HALTS withdrawals Again 21st Feb" on: February 22, 2014, 11:16:48 AM
If you read the thread then you must realize that it is FUD.
Some dude is photoshopping and you believe it.

STOP CAUSING PANIC!!!!


My advice: Get some BTC and HODL!!!

Advice 2: TRUST NO ONE!!! Only put money in an exchange if you are willing to lose it all!!!
2615  Economy / Speculation / Re: By December 31st, 2014 we will have touched $5000/BTC on: February 22, 2014, 11:14:19 AM
I agree with the OP. Legit  Cheesy
I think $5000 will be eventually reached. Bitcoin either goes main stream or it dies. I do not see a middle solution.

The middle solution is what you have now: a "steady" rise in value and visibility. The other 2 extremes seem more unlikely to me, as much as I would like to see it going mainstream as soon as possible.

EDIT:

[...]

$5000 won't happen and if does I'll give u my hot girlfriend that I posted about earlier u can view her in off topic.

I don't know about $5000, but you're not very attached to your hot girlfriend, are you?  Tongue

I am, but it shows you how much confidence i have in smoothie's prediction failure.

Or you're gay and want to get rid of your hot GF Tongue
2616  Economy / Speculation / Re: IF you have assets still inside Gox, what percentage of it is in coins on: February 22, 2014, 11:07:01 AM
If they're solvent you want 100% BTC, if they're not then it doesn't really matter which one you have. All in is the way to go

No, if you go "all in" even a  "small" crash from 130 to 100 would impact you the same going from 600 to 461, smaller candles but same effect once liquidated.
If you think Gox is insolvent holding fiat is the only smart move.


If you hold 10 BTC then you hold 10 BTC.  The price movements on Gox are irrelevant, no?  In the (what I think is unlikely) event the MtGox is insolvent, then I expect the BTC to be liquidated at auction and for you to receive x% of the liquidation value.  Fiat holder would receive x% of their fiat holdings.  According to my line of reasoning, if you expect the liquidation price of the Gox BTC in the event of bankruptcy to be greater than $110, then you should go "all in."

 10GOXBTC != 10BTC, if you think otherwise it means you believe Gox is solvent (which is fine to me).
 If Gox is insolvent i don't understand how they will auction GOXBTC's as they are a separate thing from btc network. But fiat still will be fiat (regulated by law in japan).

Isn't a GOXBTC an IOY for a real BTC? Whereas you don't know if they actually have the real product.
Basically just like gold and the federal reserve Cheesy
2617  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gox is at $1,000 - will it ever go lower again? on: February 22, 2014, 11:03:12 AM
are we at ZERO yet  Huh

How can you go to zero if money isn't going in or out?

Maybe the following 2 things can make that happen
 - They shut down the site with the message "Due to high frappuchino usage we can no longer support this business. Your BTC is lost bye bye!!!"
 - Everyone loses hope and trades go to zero and mass abandonment. Some last sorry-ass dude sells hit BTC in GOX for $0 making the last trade $0.

Other than that Gox can remain on the low but will never hit $0.
2618  Economy / Speculation / Re: Official End of Mt Gox thread on: February 22, 2014, 10:53:41 AM
2619  Economy / Speculation / Re: What happens when Gox goes down / hits $0? on: February 22, 2014, 10:51:00 AM
Should we stand ready with large buy orders? Because it will happen, Gox is done there is no turning back now after the video where he just ignored the guys who travalled from London (heroes). Fat fuck (no offense against fat people) hope you burn for how you solved this. Gox had sick fee's, he can pay back the people who got most hurt at least...

Gox is not dead. It's going to rise again to fuck all you motherfu**ers again.

Mark my words. In the next two weeks withdrawals will reopen and despite their horrible customer relations some customers won't leave and they will remain open. And you all will hate them for it. And some of you will trade there again.

Love the word joke Cheesy
2620  Economy / Speculation / Re: As a protocol Bitcoin isnt worth much on: February 22, 2014, 10:45:10 AM
Ppl keep saying bitcoin fundamentals is that it Is a protocol that revolutionizes financial transaction, but I completely disagree. Current systems can be upgraded to have the same features and even better with features like refund which is a critical flaw in bitcoin.

Bitcoin is nothing but an anarcho libertarian dream, a group that have always failed in history and yes I am one but I am a realist.

Bitcoin will never go to $2000+

Adding a refund option to cryptocurrency is like adding a backdoor for hackers.
It will backfire and if anyone can refund money then you can just wait for you rolex to arrive and revoke the transaction.
On the other hand what will happen if the guy selling the rolex pushes his money to a different account??
Well why not rollback all associated transactions LOL... that will turn cryptocurrency into a complete chaos.

The idea is understandable due to scams but who will you trust for refund?
If that is a bank then the whole idea of cryptocurrency just went down the drain you handed them a backdoor to the currency. Banks would no longer need printers to print money Cheesy
Nobody should be allowed to refund at the protocol level. If you do someone has power/advantage and will abuse it.

You will need escrow type of services just like certificate authorities who sell trust, if they lose trust then their business is worthless. They are popping up as we speak.
Ofcourse banks could fill this gap by turning into crypto-escrow trust providers. Doing a good job will make money flow through them.
In my opinion refunding would kill cryptocurrency if implemented at protocol level.


About the $2000+ why not? It went from $32 -> $2 -> $1100+ in about 1 year. Even 10k this year could be possible.
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