Darn it! I am jealous.

hard to say, maybe even lower at first, of course higher sometime later, but when?

Someone, maybe Peter Brandt calls it: strong opinions, weakly held.
Here is one (may not be popular):

My default scenario was btc going to $70-85K before May, then correcting to maybe 45K, then going to 150-200K in a double hump (a la 2013 scenario) but, admittedly, we were going up a tad too fast and s-tcoins were not helping by overheating at the same time.

Now, my secondary scenario is that we might correct deeper here (with out first run being 3.1K to 58K or 3.8K to 58K if you count from March 2020).
Since we did not climb too high, the correction might be milder (to 33-40K), followed by the last (this cycle) hurrah to $140-200K, weather permitting.

Somehow both stock market and bitcoin feel bearish, which could be temporary...or not.
Strangely enough, it looks like 1.9 tril stimulus is already "priced in", which is a surprise, I was thinking that there would be another bump.

In addition, COIN listing might suck out some institutional liquidity from btc as WS would go for "picks and shovels" instead of the actual coin.

Not selling, or buying.

Are you going to get 'them COINs?

Coinbase will go public in a direct listing very soon as S-1 is published.
At above $100bil valuation, I feel like there is no more current 'value" left.
Of course, it could "pop" 30% or more on the first day, but i feel like it would be more of an IPO "dud" like FB and UBER within a week or two.
Later on, maybe a better prospect.

Mixing metaphors...nobody talks about diamond hands among bitcoiners, imho.
that's a GME meme.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoins-2021-rally-is-minting-thousands-of-crypto-diamond-hands-millionaires-11614200303

That said, 20tc bought in 2014 for $4000-4500 is above $1mil, so i think that actual investor numbers are much smaller than 100K (multiple wallets, etc.)
I would say it is probably 10-30K, still much smaller numbers than total number of millionaires (50 mil), so it is not even register.
At about $0.5-1mil/btc bitcoiners would start to affect overall millionaire numbers.


Yes, absolutely, I made almost the exact same supposition somewhere above.
Maybe this how it would start-as an expensive exotic "meats".

M1 (not M2 or M3!), revised numbers...it is at...$18 tril (from $4 tril in feb 2020 and $1.3 tril in 2008)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1

yeah, but would it be a 5% or 27% fat "meat". If 27%, count me out  , unless it is wagu.

Kidding aside, I doubt that we will get there on cost, but it allows for exotic meats, of course.
Secondly, few years later people would not remember how "real" meat tastes. Perhaps, real meat would become a luxury item.

Pretty nice.

LFC and el-dude have like a highway in between #could be friends IRL 

I suggest to respect the Dip....until it is over.

Bitcoin always does sudden plunges and rises when I am asleep.
Such prankster.

...does this qualify as a post NOT made at the top or the bottom?  

#If I took is "seriously", maybe I would have been bipolar already

In an alternative interpretation, Kraken had some trading engine mismatch problems over multiple coins, including btc.
Maybe btc decline was the cause of such calamity or the result of some faulty executions, who knows.

mtgox and blockfi aside (you are correct there, imho), why 60K and why all the time in Deribit?
Why selling here now as some people have done instead of picking your potential sell price (75, 100, 200) and lock in an additional premium?
Big whoop if you lock in premium at 200 and it goes to 300.
Of course, nobody says anything about doing it with the whole stash-well maybe somebody does it, but it ain't me.
I haven't done diddly-squat yet, kind of kicking the tires right now.
Peeps with a large stash should have talked to a fin advisor who understand these types of strategies

If you do this with the whole stash, then you better use even more advanced strategies using futures, etc.
planB (or preston pysh?) is saying that hedgies are on the hook for 1.5 bil already selling futures and buying same amount of spot btc, of vice versa, I don't recall.
Apparently, it is 20% yearly return with practically no risk. It is caused by a significant contango in btc futures..


wait a minute, we are just having some fun despite our age (more advanced for some of us).
something about never being too old to be young (and maybe a bit stupid).
what else can we do-show some helicopters?  

Supercool, much obliged, the froggy is happy. It would take some time to cache, probably.

may a little frog
acquire shiny laser eyes,
asking for a friend

# if you can, please
haiku

indeed, it is, no question about it, apart from the fact that btc keeps going up and bails out those who pursue this.

Convoluted contracts. What are you talking about? blockfi? that is not optimal, sure, I would never give Zack my btc.
However, selling covered calls is a very well known financial technique that involves NO lending and, frankly, is VASTLY advantageous to the outright selling since you are not selling anything at ALL, UNLESS the price is above whatever the value is, chosen by yourself and nobody else. Covered calls assume that you write them against whatever bitcoin you sent to the broker, they are not "naked", therefore "were not able to adequately cover" is not possible and just shows that you need to research this topic more.

Of course it s not better than hodling, but it is superior to repetitive selling up or down, skimming small amounts (or not small, whatever) that you advocate.
Selling covered calls is actually a perfect trade for mined coins since you can lock in value without a sale or assuming a sale at MUCH higher levels if you chose to do it.
If you are lucky, then you retain your btc and if not, you still sold btc at a higher to much higher price (depending on your chosen price for the contract: 75, 100, 200K).
However, if btc is not sold in the end, you generate income and not cap. gains-maybe it matters for some.

Psychologically, you should consider bitcoin on which you wrote covered calls as pre-sold right now for the price attained at some moment in the future. The person on the other of the trade gives you cash right now for the RIGHT to buy btc at that future date at the price that YOU chose (be it 75, 100 or 200K). Yea, tough luck if btc is at 300K and the guy would approx 30X his money and you only get 200K/btc+whatever premium is currently there. Your counterparty would made bank, but so what, you still get your 200K, keep the premium and did not dilly-dally with "little" buys/sells at 56K.

You can always mine. It still produces meaningful amount of coins.
Requires a leap of faith, though, in purchasing the miner and either sticking it in the basement or arranging for hosting.
I am surprised that this method of DCAing is not much discussed here even though it is VASTLY more profitable as a DCA method during bull runs since your purchase price is rising only with difficulty rising, NOT with btc price rising. Difficulty rise was not exponential (16T to 22T) during the last 12mo.

Of course, but could be a good idea if you are buying a ranch and need another mil or so  .
Instead of selling, collect premium on 75-100K Dec. In the worst case-you sold at that 75 or 100 PLUS premium.
Still better than selling at 50ish.


at some point, long time ago I did some rudimentary stat analysis of that on this thread, don't want to try to find it.
basically, we did not significantly increase world millionaire numbers (since there are 46.80 mil or so world-wide).
0.104173/46.8=0.222%, which is stat insignificant.
BTC has to go up approx 20X (to 1.1 mil)  to bring our $ millionaire numbers to above 5% of the world's numbers where it would start to be significant-rough numbers.

More sophisticated calculation below says that for 2.5mil bitcoin $ millionaires to be in existence, btc has to be at $781,250 (and you have to hold 1.28 btc).
https://medium.com/@BambouClub/are-you-in-the-bitcoin-1-a-new-model-of-the

something like that.
You can sell 75K bitcoin calls, collect premium.
Then, if btc is lower than 75K at expiration, you keep BOTH your premium cash and your bitcoin, rinse and repeat.
If it is higher that 75K, then somebody basically buys your bitcoin at exactly 75K (plus $ premium that you collected).
The best thing, it is european style options (at least on ledger X, which is US-based), so your bitcoin would not be yanked from under you in the interim.
Not so good-you need to qualify with above $5 mil to sell options at intermediate odd prices (like 57, etc.).
Anybody who gets approved for the regular account could sell at 25, 50, 75K, now probably 100K as well.
I was considering selling some calls when btc was at $42K, very happy so far that I didn't.
EDIT: I checked and Dec 2021 75K calls have ~16K premium while 100K calls ~11K. Wow.
You can sell Dec 31 2021 200K calls and collect 3.8K in premium (on the bid)-exactly the lowest price in 2020.
The worst case scenario-you would sell at 200K plus 3.8K premium.
Lazer eyes.

I wouldn't mind laser eyes upgrade as well.