Is it really? With GBTC being available, albeit with warts and stuff (premium and a largish fee), what new will the ETP/ETF provide?
Besides, I am sure Barry will find a way to re-position/re-file GBTC as ETF. He will have to at least halve or maybe even quarter his fees, though.
I don't have any GBTC, but I've been looking at QBTC, BITC, ABTC. The last one is sort of an official ETF, but it's still very new. https://bitbo.io/is a good reference site to see the Price and Premiums of GBTC, QBTC, BTCG and BITC. Negative premiums are so tasty... I already have both GBTC and QBTC in IRAs and Roth's (in "moderation", not going 100% btc), no more for me  |
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It’s February..
Pump season doesn’t end till like December-January..
Still just the beginning..
I listened to a few podcasts with PlanB and Willy Woo, and they both agreed pump season lasts about 18 months after the most recent halving, noting that there have only been two previous halvings. By their estimate, December 2021 might be a good ending. He did note, that is all based on on-chain data, so show him any 1 month block of data, without prices, and he can tell you what he thinks if it's bull season or bear season, all without looking at the price.. interesting times. They also talk about super-cycles, and this would be the first ever. It's quite possible we don't really see any "cycles" attached to halvings anymore, although for sure there would still be an effect of those as the supply that comes into the market gets cut in half on the next halving. I'm tending to believe what Saylor said, that eventually, 200% annual appreciation would go down to 150% after a few years, then to 100%, then to 50%; but we will all get to see $500k and $1m, and from there it goes on slowly to $10m or higher. This all makes sense, as long there are no major Bitcoin ETFs. When major and prominent Bitcoin ETFs become a thing, they will likely blow a hole in the typical halving/bull-bear cycles of Bitcoin, as price will rise suddenly and dramatically in a hockey stick fashion, and then the curve will flatten out. Which will completely obscure any past price discovery mechanism of bitcoin through a supply/demand model, as prices will likely be orders of magnitude higher than typical due to Wall Street's extreme margin fueled over-leveraging. Bitcoin mining hashrate will possibly lag for years and years behind this event as mega miners struggle to get new hardware online. That's why it's so critical for today's Average Joe to get in before Bitcoin ETFs begin to rule the day. Once this event passes, all bets are off and God knows who will be controlling the price of bitcoin beyond that point. Is it really? With GBTC being available, albeit with warts and stuff (premium and a largish fee), what new will the ETP/ETF provide? Besides, I am sure Barry will find a way to re-position/re-file GBTC as ETF. He will have to at least halve or maybe even quarter his fees, though. One consequence, though, would be that MSTR at $1000 at these bitcoin prices would be a gigantic short if/when ETF launches since their stock price is >3Xthe price of bitcoin that they have. |
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It’s February..
Pump season doesn’t end till like December-January..
Still just the beginning..
I listened to a few podcasts with PlanB and Willy Woo, and they both agreed pump season lasts about 18 months after the most recent halving, noting that there have only been two previous halvings. By their estimate, December 2021 might be a good ending. He did note, that is all based on on-chain data, so show him any 1 month block of data, without prices, and he can tell you what he thinks if it's bull season or bear season, all without looking at the price.. interesting times. They also talk about super-cycles, and this would be the first ever. It's quite possible we don't really see any "cycles" attached to halvings anymore, although for sure there would still be an effect of those as the supply that comes into the market gets cut in half on the next halving. I'm tending to believe what Saylor said, that eventually, 200% annual appreciation would go down to 150% after a few years, then to 100%, then to 50%; but we will all get to see $500k and $1m, and from there it goes on slowly to $10m or higher. I also listened to those and also to NUPL discussion somewhere else, but it seems exceedingly unlikely that we would be able to maintain the tempo until December, which, in my opinion, makes this cycle similar to 2013 (two-humped) with a first peak earlier than expected, say, the end of Feb-early April at much higher than now (maybe 65-100K), then a steep correction to 40-55K (depending on whether it starts at 65 or 100), then flat city until the end of August, then the cycle hurrah burst to whatever number we can reach (150-288K, maybe even higher), ending in Nov-Dec, as usual. |
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Again, bitcoin is cool and solid, but the rest are overheating like crazy in complete fever.
To me this looks like a setup for a nice dump. Maybe btc gets to 50-60K area before the dump, then at least 20% decline, which would basically bring us back to where we are now or even slightly below.
I am having a difficult time with your current conceptualization of what is a "dump" Biodom. Really? 20% would be a dump? And furthermore we get 20% up into the $50k to $60k territory, then we get a 20% dump which would mean that we would be back into the BTC price arena that we started.. hardly a dump, unless we are considering the matter from an ant's perspective. I humbly advise to do more work on your reading comprehension, perhaps, as it is not where it should be, yet. Congratulations Bob, and Rick. Really, enjoy building the life you have been thinking about all those hodling years. I am sure you keep having a healthy stash in bitcoin, so who cares ?
Thank you for your kind words. It really is quite surreal at times. Have truly been blessed. Sure, congrats, of course. That said, I have difficulty contemplating these moves as to why sell the best performing asset in the world and not others? To each their own, though, plus your case might be different because of the presumed size of the stash and the timeline of when it was acquired. It is difficult to carry the load for 8 years or more, I get it. My plan is to sell forks and alts before I even look at bitcoin for selling some of it, which could be never. |
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Don't sell the corn. In 10 to 20 years, each one will be 6 to 7 digits worth of US fiat.
I don't want to sound gauche, but I have more BTC than I will reasonably be able to spend in this lifetime. Will be passing along a life-changing sum of coins to my nieces and nephews upon my passing. I believe I am on record stating that I don't ever plan on liquidating more than an additional n BTC in this lifetime, to give you some perspective. avoid the highways, at least for today. 100 cars pileup at FW: https://www.dallasnews.com/news/weather/2021/02/11/winter-weather-causes-hazardous-conditions-on-north-texas-roads/ |
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Again, bitcoin is cool and solid, but the rest are overheating like crazy in complete fever.
To me this looks like a setup for a nice dump. Maybe btc gets to 50-60K area before the dump, then at least 20% decline, which would basically bring us back to where we are now or even slightly below.
Shitcoins should drop at least 40-70%, though. I don't want to name names, but many are 100-400% up in the last 7 days. Ridiculous.
For example see nicely engineered dump in overheated pot stocks today. -30% on the open on no news, just to "balance" things out.
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Fully diluted,we are above $1tril-a fine achievement.
Next stop-$1 tril using currently issued (~$53-54K).
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nice catch, but they say that they are plans to hold, transfer and issue bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on behalf of its asset-management clients unless the journo made a mistake what is that ISSUE they are talking about? EDIT: I did not see that this article was already quoted and discussed few pages above. |
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So Elon Musk promotes dogecoin but buys Bitcoin? And people still buy doge? Hmmmm
Are you saying he...distracted people with a shitcoin?   Oh no!  Once i see a fat red candle on the dogeshitcoin and BTC daily, I am shorting the doge to the ground. Just a matter of time. he later said that he bought doggiecoin for his little X, so he might not be completely ambivalent about it. |
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Hey Biodom.. I am rich as fuck...The kind of problems that I am having is a matter of getting richer way faster than expected, which in many senses is described as a problem, but not exactly a bad problem to have, right?
That's good to know, congrats. That said, I think that this board might need wealth consultants soon to explain how to behave upon acquiring significant means in a relatively short time, but only AFTER optional significant cashing out. Before that your proverbial ass belongs to bitcoin and to "slings and arrows of the outrageous fortune". |
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sigh...tether printing is decreasing our dominance...I just wish that it wasn't counted (and it shouldn't). |
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Thanks for a reminder. The red line is pointing to 200K at the end of March, but we cannot really expect it  |
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excuse me for a momentary distraction...had to look and report back.
Stooooonks...Tilrayyyyy
nutso
I have no idea what that means. right, you are not familiar with US capital markets, hence it s not relevant to you. stocks are called 'stonks' in popular lingo (in US). Tilray is a canadian pot company that happened to be up from $7 to $55 in the last couple of mo and it was up 55% in premarket today. Easy money so far, maybe less going forward. |
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yep... yesterday 6k on coins are flown out of f2pool  by the timing of it, it looks like their coins went to Musk, lol. US (TSLA) is better for it. |
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excuse me for a momentary distraction...had to look and report back.
Stooooonks...Tilrayyyyy
nutso
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I thought that you are using Gemini. lol
that said, bitcoin is cool, but other s-t is overheating again.
I wish that mostly btc goes up, not all other...pretenders.
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Last 2 weeks have seen the 2 largest candles measured by USD. Jan 29th with a $6630 candle and today's $6849 (so far) move. Soon.. Ten K moves a day Dollar cost average is gay Life is short, go play #nohomophobe #haiku *not investment advice for the weak *not life advise for the meek should be an awesome week Blame the rhyming on the weed  Of course DCA works.. it is a solid technique.. and maybe it is not looking like it works for fucktwats who waited until the past few months to get in, but if you had DCA'ed in to bitcoin over the past 2-3 or more years, you would be sitting pretty god-damned pretty at this point. Bitcoin is not going to reward peeps who are short-sighted and gambling as well as the DCA'ers and the HODLers.. (which includes stat stackers). Oh.. yeah and for sure, none of us have been suggesting any one sized fits all strategy because DCA surely works, but it also supplements both front-loading and over-investing... which are both great strategies as well, in moderation of course. Ok, I agree, DCA works and in fact it's worked very well as my history documents here in WO, just trolling the growing FOMO sentiment couldn't help myself lol You have credit in part for introductory to a DCA strategy and education here, cheers! Never did fancy that ladder approach stuff though  Conviction is the secret key to BTC success coupled with being a level headed actor. Easy, not easy right? replying, but highlighting the funny passage in the prior (@JJG) response..Saylor and Musk both qualify as fucktwats by that definition, I had a nice laugh. My take: 1. If you have a large or medium cash pile available, don't listen and don't wait, maybe divide in two-three chunks, but DON'T do DCA with whatever you decided to invest. This is kind of crazy thing to do with the current price dynamics. Why? How do you know when it would jump again...and again? If Saylor was DCAing , I am calculating that his average purchase would be about 23K and they would have 30% less btc and would have $1bil less in value of that btc right now. He was already buying the second chunk at almost twice the price of the first one (~11K first, ~22K second, 16K average). Second part was done using the borrowed money, which explains the delay. 2. if you are investing a small portion of your cash flow, it's a whole different story, DCA is natural for that, but don't expect to have a large appreciation in the immediate future. It might still come years down the road. EDIT: not an investment advice, just an opinion for entertainment purposes . |
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The future just said "Hello there"  This is fucking ridiculous guys. I had my sell orders up to $35k and I had to fix them in November or so and so at that point, I had already set all my sell orders up to $100k and thinking that I should be set for several months.. maybe until mid-20121.., but now I am starting to feel that I might run out of those sell orders, too... .. what to do? What to do? Maybe set them up to $250k.. that might keep me until the end of the year, no? Even us folks with a plan.. sometimes have to reconsider some possible tweaks to such plans.  What a bad (first world) problem to have. This Elon thing is a total game changer; you need a whole new plan with another plan in place to change that plan as well. As Mike Tyson said: "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." Ditto. |
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Decided I'm not making a principled sell @ $50k USD/BTC. Going to wait until we actually decide to start building on the land, at which point, BTC should be way higher than $50k USD/BTC. In theory, anyway. Bob's and Rick's Citadel & ranch...year 2040ish https://wallhaven.cc/w/4yeymk |
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