Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Dabs]

This all makes sense, as long there are no major Bitcoin ETFs.

When major and prominent Bitcoin ETFs become a thing, they will likely blow a hole in the typical halving/bull-bear cycles of Bitcoin, as price will rise suddenly and dramatically in a hockey stick fashion, and then the curve will flatten out. Which will completely obscure any past price discovery mechanism of bitcoin through a supply/demand model, as prices will likely be orders of magnitude higher than typical due to Wall Street's extreme margin fueled over-leveraging. Bitcoin mining hashrate will possibly lag for years and years behind this event as mega miners struggle to get new hardware online.

That's why it's so critical for today's Average Joe to get in before Bitcoin ETFs begin to rule the day. Once this event passes, all bets are off and God knows who will be controlling the price of bitcoin beyond that point.

But ETFs follow the price and do not dictate the price. The price will only go up because the fund manager is forced to "physically" acquire more of the underlying, as in, to actually get the bitcoins, either from OTC or from exchanges, or they have some sort of connection with the big custodial ones that service institutions (Gemini, Grayscale, Coinbase are some examples).

It would also be a danger to the ETF fund manager / owner, to rehypothecate. They would need to show the BTC somehow, either through a regulated custodial entity, or if they self-custody, some sort of proof perhaps showing the address or the balance, or at least telling the world how many bitcoins they have.

In lieu of actual US ETFs, one can simply invest in GBTC, QBTC, BITC, ABTC, maybe in TSLA, MSTR, GLXY, MARA, SQ, BTCG.U ... QBTC is "The Bitcoin Fund" and is almost an ETF but it's Canadian. ABTC is another Canadian ETF that closely tracks BTC. Tesla and MicroStrategy, as we know, both have at least a billion dollars worth of BTC each, and are legal to own in your government regulated retirement or savings funds / brokerage accounts, 401k, ROTH IRA or RRSP, TFSA or whatever is applicable in your country.

They will most likely just follow exchange prices or some BTC index or even an average. They can follow Bitstamp for example, and if they need more shares, they just buy more BTC driving up the price, but at least the fund manager themselves actually own and control BTC, either through a custodial service or they have cold storage and keep the private keys.

Almost all of them will be using multi-signature for this purpose. It's the next wave of cold storage and allows you to have at least one error without losing access.

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[Biodom]

It’s February..
Pump season doesn’t end till like December-January..

Still just the beginning..

I listened to a few podcasts with PlanB and Willy Woo, and they both agreed pump season lasts about 18 months after the most recent halving, noting that there have only been two previous halvings. By their estimate, December 2021 might be a good ending.

He did note, that is all based on on-chain data, so show him any 1 month block of data, without prices, and he can tell you what he thinks if it's bull season or bear season, all without looking at the price.. interesting times.

They also talk about super-cycles, and this would be the first ever. It's quite possible we don't really see any "cycles" attached to halvings anymore, although for sure there would still be an effect of those as the supply that comes into the market gets cut in half on the next halving.

I'm tending to believe what Saylor said, that eventually, 200% annual appreciation would go down to 150% after a few years, then to 100%, then to 50%; but we will all get to see $500k and $1m, and from there it goes on slowly to $10m or higher.

This all makes sense, as long there are no major Bitcoin ETFs.

When major and prominent Bitcoin ETFs become a thing, they will likely blow a hole in the typical halving/bull-bear cycles of Bitcoin, as price will rise suddenly and dramatically in a hockey stick fashion, and then the curve will flatten out. Which will completely obscure any past price discovery mechanism of bitcoin through a supply/demand model, as prices will likely be orders of magnitude higher than typical due to Wall Street's extreme margin fueled over-leveraging. Bitcoin mining hashrate will possibly lag for years and years behind this event as mega miners struggle to get new hardware online.

That's why it's so critical for today's Average Joe to get in before Bitcoin ETFs begin to rule the day. Once this event passes, all bets are off and God knows who will be controlling the price of bitcoin beyond that point.

Is it really? With GBTC being available, albeit with warts and stuff (premium and a largish fee), what new will the ETP/ETF provide?
Besides, I am sure Barry will find a way to re-position/re-file GBTC as ETF. He will have to at least halve or maybe even quarter his fees, though.
One consequence, though, would be that MSTR at $1000 at these bitcoin prices would be a gigantic short if/when ETF launches since their stock price is >3Xthe price of bitcoin that they have.

[Dabs]

Is it really? With GBTC being available, albeit with warts and stuff (premium and a largish fee), what new will the ETP/ETF provide?
Besides, I am sure Barry will find a way to re-position/re-file GBTC as ETF. He will have to at least halve or maybe even quarter his fees, though.

I don't have any GBTC, but I've been looking at QBTC, BITC, ABTC. The last one is sort of an official ETF, but it's still very new.

https://bitbo.io/

is a good reference site to see the Price and Premiums of GBTC, QBTC, BTCG and BITC. Negative premiums are so tasty...

[Torque]

This all makes sense, as long there are no major Bitcoin ETFs.

When major and prominent Bitcoin ETFs become a thing, they will likely blow a hole in the typical halving/bull-bear cycles of Bitcoin, as price will rise suddenly and dramatically in a hockey stick fashion, and then the curve will flatten out. Which will completely obscure any past price discovery mechanism of bitcoin through a supply/demand model, as prices will likely be orders of magnitude higher than typical due to Wall Street's extreme margin fueled over-leveraging. Bitcoin mining hashrate will possibly lag for years and years behind this event as mega miners struggle to get new hardware online.

That's why it's so critical for today's Average Joe to get in before Bitcoin ETFs begin to rule the day. Once this event passes, all bets are off and God knows who will be controlling the price of bitcoin beyond that point.

But ETFs follow the price and do not dictate the price. The price will only go up because the fund manager is forced to "physically" acquire more of the underlying, as in, to actually get the bitcoins, either from OTC or from exchanges, or they have some sort of connection with the big custodial ones that service institutions (Gemini, Grayscale, Coinbase are some examples).

It would also be a danger to the ETF fund manager / owner, to rehypothecate. They would need to show the BTC somehow, either through a regulated custodial entity, or if they self-custody, some sort of proof perhaps showing the address or the balance, or at least telling the world how many bitcoins they have.

Sure, this might be the case in the beginning, but surely Dabs you are not so naive as to think it will stay that way for very long?

As happened with the PMs not long after PM ETFs became a thing, there eventually will be relaxed rules around the underlying Bitcoin asset, eventually relaxed reserve rules and lack of audits/transparency, then re-hypothecation, phantom shares, over-leveraged naked shorting, etc., etc. And the SEC will turn a blind eye to all of it.

It will all happen to Bitcoin too eventually, guaranteed. It's not a matter of if, only a matter of when.

[JayJuanGee]

Fired up a browser on a computer I haven't used for a few months and checked bitstamp's price on bitcoinwisdom.io. Computer chirped and screamed at me and I realized I had set a high alert on it.

$20,000. Remember when we all wondered if Bitcoin would ever break 20k? Ah those carefree days of like a few months ago.....

20K is history now. Our grand children will discuss with their friends  that they would have been very lucky if they had bought BTC at that Low price.

Strange.. but very likely true.

The "good ole" days.  #nostalgia

I'm probably late, but.. we did it !  

I am slow.

What does this mean...?

Give it to me straight.

[Biodom]

Is it really? With GBTC being available, albeit with warts and stuff (premium and a largish fee), what new will the ETP/ETF provide?
Besides, I am sure Barry will find a way to re-position/re-file GBTC as ETF. He will have to at least halve or maybe even quarter his fees, though.

I don't have any GBTC, but I've been looking at QBTC, BITC, ABTC. The last one is sort of an official ETF, but it's still very new.

https://bitbo.io/

is a good reference site to see the Price and Premiums of GBTC, QBTC, BTCG and BITC. Negative premiums are so tasty...

I already have both GBTC and QBTC in IRAs and Roth's (in "moderation", not going 100% btc), no more for me  

[bitebits]

I'm probably late, but.. we did it ! 

I am slow.

What does this mean...?

Give it to me straight.

It means that it is still early days. You need to pay 21 bitcoins for a million dollars.

[Icygreen]

Australia considering a Bitcoin ETF

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/asic-open-to-a-bitcoin-linked-etf-listing-on-the-asx-20210212-p571v0

Canada has gone ahead with the first ETF. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canada-approves-worlds-first-bitcoin-etf-for-retail-investors/

[Dabs]

This all makes sense, as long there are no major Bitcoin ETFs.

When major and prominent Bitcoin ETFs become a thing, they will likely blow a hole in the typical halving/bull-bear cycles of Bitcoin, as price will rise suddenly and dramatically in a hockey stick fashion, and then the curve will flatten out. Which will completely obscure any past price discovery mechanism of bitcoin through a supply/demand model, as prices will likely be orders of magnitude higher than typical due to Wall Street's extreme margin fueled over-leveraging. Bitcoin mining hashrate will possibly lag for years and years behind this event as mega miners struggle to get new hardware online.

That's why it's so critical for today's Average Joe to get in before Bitcoin ETFs begin to rule the day. Once this event passes, all bets are off and God knows who will be controlling the price of bitcoin beyond that point.

But ETFs follow the price and do not dictate the price. The price will only go up because the fund manager is forced to "physically" acquire more of the underlying, as in, to actually get the bitcoins, either from OTC or from exchanges, or they have some sort of connection with the big custodial ones that service institutions (Gemini, Grayscale, Coinbase are some examples).

It would also be a danger to the ETF fund manager / owner, to rehypothecate. They would need to show the BTC somehow, either through a regulated custodial entity, or if they self-custody, some sort of proof perhaps showing the address or the balance, or at least telling the world how many bitcoins they have.

Sure, this might be the case in the beginning, but surely Dabs you are not so naive as to think it will stay that way for very long?

As happened with the PMs not long after PM ETFs became a thing, there eventually will be relaxed rules around the underlying Bitcoin asset, eventually relaxed reserve rules and lack of audits/transparency, then re-hypothecation, phantom shares, over-leveraged naked shorting, etc., etc. And the SEC will turn a blind eye to all of it.

It will all happen to Bitcoin too eventually, guaranteed. It's not a matter of if, only a matter of when.

When they do that, ... maybe someone will take up their bet. It's like trying to short BTC ... it's not going to end well for them. BTC itself will still be there. "Paper BTC" will have to follow.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

good to see that i am not the only one having a hard time to cope with the epic&sheer magnificence of tectonic wealth shift of unprecedented magnitude.

This statement, 600watt, reminds me of a fairly common expression that I had been attempting to use to inform peeps in real life about the benefits of getting into BTC, and the price does not matter very much.  I would say that I have been making the same recommendation for years, which has been no matter the price to get your buying abilities set up and then figure out some kind of plan to start to get a stake on a regular basis at whatever level that you feel comfortable, even though I recommend a 1% to 10% range for starting out... and in that regard, my suggestions would be accompanied by a statement that in the coming years we are likely going to be witnessing one of the BIGGEST (if not the biggest) wealth transfers in history... which was attempt to provide a framework in which my audience would be able to appreciate the magnitude and importance of BTC - including the fact that you don't even need to establish a very large investment portfolio into BTC to be able to profit stupendously from BTC, so long as you got off zero - which again 1% to 10% was my suggested starting range, but I also had an appreciation that people need to come to their own conclusions and determinations but still even a statement from me in regards to a likely BIGGEST wealth transfer in history was not enough to motivate hardly anyone into actually beginning a prudent and reasonable BTC investment strategy.  Go figure?

I'm probably late, but.. we did it ! 

I am slow.

What does this mean...?

Give it to me straight.

It means that it is still early days. You need to pay 21 bitcoins for a million dollars.

Oh.  Thanks.  I figured that it was something fairly straight-forward, but I guess my head was not in the right place, exactly.

[savetherainforest]

OK. So. I lied about not taking profit at $50k.

Feeling greedy. Starting to move some coin today in preparation for $50k. That should give us enough liquidity buffer to buy the third and final parcel of land, and start putting up a basic steel/concrete garage on the lot ASAP, as well as covering costs for grading/paving the driveway, and bridge construction.

Was looking over my accounts last night, about which account to draw down on, and decided "Fuck it. I like that money where it is, doing what it's doing. Might as well sell a little bit of corn at these prices."

Sue me.

+merit for doing the right thing!

Also... you should sell now, probably correction is happening, dunno if we get 50K soon or if its a flash crash then Up!        

[Biodom]

I'm probably late, but.. we did it !  

I am slow.

What does this mean...?

Give it to me straight.

It means that it is still early days. You need to pay 21 bitcoins for a million dollars.

OR it means that "fully diluted" btc is at 1tril valuation (1.008.000 mil)  

[JayJuanGee]

a little OT: Do you think the crypto ban in india will effect the price or is it already in the price (so no effect at all)?

I don't think it means anything (just a minor correction) but their claim really tickled my stomach lol

It probably means that a certain number of innocent Indians are going to get left out of this BTC pumpening cycle.. just like a certain number of innocent Chinese were left out of the 2017 BTC pumpening cycle due to some of the Chinese government shenanigans of locking of value in exchanges (and even closing down the exchanges as I seem to remember) in late 2016 and into 2017.

It sucks that all the money seems to still flow into alts. Look at Binance coin. Yesterday I thought it will crash after that pump. Today it gained another 50%. I feel like everybody is getting rich while I wait for bitcoin to make 5% lol.

I know shitcoins and all but damn ı wish I would have bought some when they were cheap. So had lots of money now to buy more bitcoin.

You are pathetic, UnDerDoG81.

It's like you have not learned anything about bitcoin in more than 7 years.

Lot's of shitcoiners and nocoiners have gotten distracted by the same bullshit and enticed into gambling on supposed gains of various shitcoins rather than having a solid bitcoin plan.. and if you have a solid bitcoin plan, you don't have to worry if it goes up another 5% or not.. because you should already be in solid profits.

Focus, UnDerDoG81.


Focus ur lil selfie.  

You trust Michael Saylor and think he is honest in his opinion? -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4oO8VlNFv7Y

Or does he talk people and investors into Bitcoin, maximizes his profits and gets out on the top of the cycle?

Oh gawd....   Another example of your level of dumb, UnDerDoG81.


 

Ever heared of reflecting your self onto others?

I have heard of such a concept, but what does it mean in terms of your demonstrated ongoing levels of persistent dummening, UnDerDoG81?

[dieselmeister]

OK. So. I lied about not taking profit at $50k.

Feeling greedy. Starting to move some coin today in preparation for $50k. That should give us enough liquidity buffer to buy the third and final parcel of land, and start putting up a basic steel/concrete garage on the lot ASAP, as well as covering costs for grading/paving the driveway, and bridge construction.

Was looking over my accounts last night, about which account to draw down on, and decided "Fuck it. I like that money where it is, doing what it's doing. Might as well sell a little bit of corn at these prices."

Sue me.

+merit for doing the right thing!

Also... you should sell now, probably correction is happening, dunno if we get 50K soon or if its a flash crash then Up!        

I doubt that we reach 50k this weekend. Sunday is dump day... I expect a small dump every time we went near 49k. Than a small dip occurs down to 47k... I will place buy orders, when we go up again, to get these dips

[JayJuanGee]

The Bitcoin vs. environment trope is total bullshit.

A widely adopted, deflationary store of value is the only thing with the potential to overcome humanities tendency to instant gratification and rein in the senseless overcomsumption we see today.

If your money is going to be worth more tomorrow than it is today are you going to blow it on some worthless crap at WalMart or IKEA?  No.  You are only going to spend it on things with actual value.

Bitcoin incentivizes the deferral of consumption and planning on longer time frames, as such it is the best thing to happen for the ecology in all of human history.

It speaks - beyond photos.

 

By the way... I am getting a tentative feeling that if the BTC price breaks through $50k, it may well go straight to something in the ballpark of $58k to $63.5k before pausing in any kind of meaningful way.. just some kinds of tentative feelings.... not sure how to label it...  

feelings... whoa whoa whoa feelings

[JayJuanGee]

Ooh.. I am sure they might want some donations before they upgrade the forum software.

Attain cool VIP status for a dirt-cheap BTC50?

This example seems to demonstrate a kind of level of absurdity in some of the earlier bitcoin ideology of pricing goods and services in BTC....

Yes, in the future, when bitcoin reaches somewhere approaching the top of the s-curve, it might start to make a bit more sense, because at that point, then BTC prices are likely to stabilize to some extent.. but in terms of dollars, the BTC price may well need to be quite a bit north of $10million per BTC... looking like such prices are more and more in reach... even though it could take a couple (or even a few) more cycles to get there.. 2030-ish?  this post is not going to age well, but just throwing out some thoughts.

It stems from a 10k BTC pizza and 1 BTC = 1 BTC line of thinking.

I think the better estimate would be closer to 2040 or even 2050 when we see $10m BTC.

If we assume a halving every 4 years, then we can conservatively estimate a doubling in value in terms of USD, and it would look like this.

Block, Year, Reward Era, Block Reward, Start BTC, BTC Added, End BTC, BTC increase, End BTC % of limit, USD price estimate
630000   2020   4   6.25    18,375,000.00     1,312,500.00     19,687,500.00    7.14%   93.75%       50,000.00
840000   2024   5   3.125    19,687,500.00     656,250.00     20,343,750.00    3.33%   96.88%       100,000.00
1050000   2028   6   1.5625    20,343,750.00     328,125.00     20,671,875.00    1.61%   98.44%       200,000.00
1260000   2032   7   0.78125    20,671,875.00     164,062.50     20,835,937.50    0.79%   99.22%       400,000.00
1470000   2036   8   0.390625    20,835,937.50     82,031.25     20,917,968.75    0.39%   99.61%       800,000.00
1680000   2040   9   0.1953125    20,917,968.75     41,015.63     20,958,984.38    0.20%   99.80%       1,600,000.00
1890000   2044   10   0.09765625    20,958,984.38     20,507.81     20,979,492.19    0.10%   99.90%       3,200,000.00
2100000   2048   11   0.04882812    20,979,492.19     10,253.91     20,989,746.09    0.05%   99.95%       6,400,000.00
2310000   2052   12   0.02441406    20,989,746.09     5,126.95     20,994,873.05    0.02%   99.98%       12,800,000.00

I started with 50k even though it was last year... just round numbers.

Of course, a lot of different sources are now predicting 100k by end of 2021, to as high as 300k and even 400k by year end.

In any case, it is just a matter of time, and most of us will still be alive by 2050 to witness whatever Bitcoin is worth then.

Notice that by 2036, technically not all coins have been mined, but the number is already at 20.9 million corns, for all practical purposes miners are living on transaction fees and all bitcoin has already been mined. (Yes, it's not, but it is. Whatever, debate about the last bitcoin if you like, it becomes irrelevant at this point in time in the future.)

We are probably NOT far apart in terms of some of our discussion of this subject.. matter of degree rather than kind, perhaps?, but there is some level of disagreement that I have with your presentation, and I cannot quite put my finger on where the disagreement lies, exactly... .. sent a merit, anyhow because I appreciate the discussion and various angles of presentation.

[savetherainforest]

OK. So. I lied about not taking profit at $50k.

Feeling greedy. Starting to move some coin today in preparation for $50k. That should give us enough liquidity buffer to buy the third and final parcel of land, and start putting up a basic steel/concrete garage on the lot ASAP, as well as covering costs for grading/paving the driveway, and bridge construction.

Was looking over my accounts last night, about which account to draw down on, and decided "Fuck it. I like that money where it is, doing what it's doing. Might as well sell a little bit of corn at these prices."

Sue me.

+merit for doing the right thing!

Also... you should sell now, probably correction is happening, dunno if we get 50K soon or if its a flash crash then Up!        

I doubt that we reach 50k this weekend. Sunday is dump day... I expect a small dump every time we went near 49k. Than a small dip occurs down to 47k... I will place buy orders, when we go up again, to get these dips

                           

I see so much red !!! DUMP ALL THE SH!TCOINS! DUMP ALL THE CORN! DUMP EVERYTHING!!! ... (FIAT IS KING?? )        

[BobLawblaw]

I doubt that we reach 50k this weekend. Sunday is dump day... I expect a small dump every time we went near 49k. Than a small dip occurs down to 47k... I will place buy orders, when we go up again, to get these dips

Not planning on making a move until Monday at the earliest. Set up a new receiving address with <Bobs.Broker> and waiting for the first small transaction to clear, before sending the rest of the batch.

Also, goddamn is the mempool fucking full RN, yo.

Not in a hurry to pull the trigger; just want to make sure I have everything loaded and ready for when the time is right.

[savetherainforest]

I doubt that we reach 50k this weekend. Sunday is dump day... I expect a small dump every time we went near 49k. Than a small dip occurs down to 47k... I will place buy orders, when we go up again, to get these dips

Not planning on making a move until Monday at the earliest. Set up a new receiving address with <Bobs.Broker> and waiting for the first small transaction to clear, before sending the rest of the batch.

Also, goddamn is the mempool fucking full RN, yo.

Not in a hurry to pull the trigger; just want to make sure I have everything loaded and ready for when the time is right.

In 4 < > 7 days it will be the next ATH and over 50K.

[Biodom]

when issued btc market cap exceeds 1 tril, even W. Buffett will take a 'parcel' of btc land.
That and seeing btc on his great-grand-children iPhones, lol.
1 tril and he is in...
Although, who knows, maybe he was one of those who bought MSTR converts as he like converts so much.