Well we got our monthly close and it looks awful. Basically there is no wick and I don’t think there was ever any red candle like this. What this implies is who sell pressure and means that Bitcoin will most likely head lower.

Most likely we won’t get an immediate reverse and turn bullish. I think we need to retest those pivots and see if the lows hold this time and eventually hoping that the $28K area doesn’t get broken.

Either way going to be a big week since the fed is raising rates this week by 50bps. Wonder how the markets will react.

I remember back in November of last year everybody was super bullish. They couldn’t wait to buy Bitcoin or certain stocks. Now right now the sentiment is completely opposite, everybody is calling for a crash or a recession.

Yes Bitcoin looks weak however it still held up better than most other assets. So if you are thinking it’s going to go lower to catch a bottom you might miss it. We all want Bitcoin to crash to like $20k so we can buy the dip however there is a possibility that it won’t happen.

Reason why these large cap companies are getting these nasty 20-30% dumps in a single day is due to a higher than normal volatility which results in lower liquidity.

Generally when VIX index is high, it means lots of volatility, and in return it has less liquidity. Coupled with the fact that many people mostly retail bought all these stocks on leverage, it caused a cascading liquidation event, similar to crypto.

Another reason is they were overvalued to begin with. Their PE ratio was very high and this is not surprising. A few more weeks and it’s a good area to long.

Honestly I think we will most likely see a repeat of 2018, where the entire summer is range bound trading. Then late October or November will come around and we will get out move.

However nobody knows which way the move will be. People are already bearish now and people are expecting $20K Bitcoin and they will long there. However with this many bearish sentiment I don’t know if that will happen. Either way it would be a perfect long setup especially if it revisited the 200 wma.

It depends on how the stock market does next week. Most likely if we keep getting bad earnings then most likely it will drag Bitcoin down also and it will end up breaking that pivot.

Or since everything is majority oversold there is a good chance we will get a dead cat bounce next week and we will get some relief. However with the situation in Ukraine and China still unresolved I don’t think it will be a bullish May month.

Well I guess if it still works it must not be important. Why did they put it there in the first place? Lol.

Either way. I had an old Gigabyte Radeon 7970 GPU that blew some capacitors. Sent it into repair by Gigabyte and assumed they would solder new ones on. Guess what came back?

Basically they just desoldered all those caps and sent it back. Ran perfectly fine without them.

I know this is not the economics or speculation section but crypto currencies are not a inflation hedge. It seems like it should be however crypto currencies and Bitcoin especially are correlated with the stock market. Especially the nasdaq index.

Plot a chart of Bitcoin and nasdaq side by side and you will see they follow each other very closely. So since inflation is up, the interest rates will rise, which will cause stocks to fall and crypto will follow.

It basically is considered a risk on asset.

This reminds me of a similar Ponzi scheme back in the day. It was POW and was very profitable however the catch was that to be able to mine the coin, you had to first own it.

So miners had no choice but to buy the coin just to be able to mine it. I forgot exactly what happened whether it was revealed as a ponzi with some eventual rug pull because it was a long time ago.

Either way stay safe out there.

Price does not follow hashrate, hashrate follows price. When prices goes up generally hashrate goes up. When hashrate goes up, it doesn’t mean price will go up.

If it happened before then it’s a coincidence and nothing more. I guess there is that theory that the more hashrate a coin has the more secure it is hence it should have a higher price but it’s not guaranteed.

Right now POS will be earliest maybe Q3 if they don’t have any more delays .

Yes it looks like many countries are starting to purchase Rubles because their currency pair is gaining a lot of traction. Wondering what Poland will do in the winter. I am assuming they are hoping this war is over by then and things will go back to normal.

However if it’s not over they will have no choice but to pay in Rubles. What other choice do they have. They got a reserve but it won’t last a long time. And in the cold winter they will have to comply to Russia’s demands because they don’t want their citizens to freeze.

Earnings were pretty bad for Amazon after the lose and also bad for intel. Most likely we will be seeing this trend for a while. So whenever there are bad earnings, crypto follows and also dumps. I think all those overpriced FANG stocks are finally getting closer to their real value.

Look at Netflix, lost almost 80% in a short period. I don’t think even bitcoin went down faster than some of these high cap stocks. I am assuming many people bought in at the highs and are now getting liquidated if they bought it on leverage. Not looking good for crypto either.

No it’s not going to happen, it will most likely also never break its old ATH. There are many people that assumed it would hit $1 or $5 or $10 but they are forgetting it’s a mineable coin with a large miner reward everyday.

I forget the exact numbers but if doge is $1 then every month there is like $500 Million worth of new supply and those coins needs to be absorbed by new users and adoption just won’t happen that fast.

Easily way to make money is to short it whenever Elon makes a tweet about it, it almost always fades.

The difficulty will never drop to the point where it’s very profitable to mine despite the lower price. It never happened in any of the bear markets for Bitcoin, Litecoin or Ethereum. It will be lower than today but not that low.

The only good thing about solo mining is that you save on 1% fees and for privacy reasons. However you need enough hashrate to do so, a few GPUs is crazy to Solo mine. The variance will get you.

Honestly there are a few reasons.

First one is that since ETH POS is more or less confirmed sometime later this year… many just find it too risky due to the long ROI period.

Second is that there are new gen video cards being released soon so people are waiting for those.

Third is inflation and recession risk. People are saving their money for the worst to come due to the way the economy is going.

Yes the trend is your friend and that’s why it’s easy making money in bull markets. They are generally easy to spot and last longer than bear markets. Right now however we are in sideways trading pretty much. A few weeks ago we had a failed low on the daily and then had a failed break on the weekly. So we are essentially flat.

Ranging markets are the most difficult to trade and most people get chopped up. This is why it’s best to wait until $50K breaks or if the $28K support breaks and we head downwards. I am predicting a very slow and ranging summer until Q4 starts.

I remember years ago when Bittrex restricted withdraws for their clients. They restricted withdraws however the trades were still allowed and some people basically out of desperation started to hedge the trades with another broker in hopes of getting the funds out that way.

So if trading is still allowed you can try and hedge your money out of the exchange. Basically use 2 exchanges, one long and one short and do it in favor so the Stex exchange is losing on the trades.

So is the gas shut off or not. Basically getting conflicting info. Yesterday there was news it was shut off and then hours later there was confirmation that it’s back on. And today it’s in the news again that it’s shut off. So is the news lagging what is happening in real time?

Looking at the USDRUB chart you can see that many people are buying Rubles to pay for the gas it seems. It’s gaining value very quick according to the chart. Very volatile forex pair recently.

Today was nothing but a dead cat bounce type of day correlated with the tech stocks. Yesterday was a blood bath type of day where the nasdaq entered bear market territory with the nasty earnings they got.

Today Facebook and had decent earnings so it had a rally towards the end. And Bitcoin follows pretty much every move. Hence there will be more volatility for both depending on how Apple earnings go tomorrow.

The problem with this is, is that who is going to pay for it. Obviously it’s going to be the people who are currently working. And how do you think you will feel when you need to get up and work from 9 to 5 while your neighbor next door just stays at home all day and makes slightly less than you. Obviously it’s not fair and everybody would quit working to do that, I just don’t think this would work.

What needs to happen is that many employers like McDonalds and Walmart need to pay fair wages for anyone who isn’t a teenager. Most teenagers can make min wage because they live with their parents. Most adults can’t. So there needs to be a different pay scale based on age.

Today is proof how correlated Bitcoin is for nasdaq. When it was confirmed that Musk bought Twitter it rallied along with the nasdaq 100. Pretty much correlation very close at 90% or so. This is what has been happening pretty much since the start of covid and will be this way for a while.

Right now I have no idea what will happen with stocks. They should go down however everybody is calling for a recession and most likely that won’t happen. So there is a good chance they bottom somewhere where nobody is expecting. Also many stocks are like 80% from ATH pretty much. Many already capitulated like with Facebook and Netflix.