Great thread! Thanks so much. I have a pretty good understanding of astrology and just came across this. Do you have a detailed interpretation of BTC's birth chart? I found a mini-one here: http://moggysworldofastrology-moggy.blogspot.de/2013/04/bitcoins.html But, I really disagree with her overall interpretation, which is negative - a dark illusion. Rather, I see it as symbolic of what BTC (Uranus in Aries!) does - it is fighting the powers that be (Saturn in Virgo - e.g. government/banking)... I have to look closer at the chart but it, thus far, looks amazing. I think I will go with the Japanese chart though just as the name Satoshi Nakamoto means more to me than the Chancelor quote, but who knows... Some QUICK observations on my part (don't hold me to this as I don't do much astrology these days. And this is hack, to really understand this chart you have to pull it together. This is "for fun" in a sense.): Pluto being in the 2nd house can be very very significant when you think of the 2nd house and money. Pluto conjunct Mars - WOW! If Pluto isn't enough we have to "amp" it up with it's lower vibration in Mars. Jupiter in same house - A blessing, it brings lots of good wherever it goes. Jupiter conjunct Mercury - Another wow - bringing this "higher" message to the masses. Mercury in the 3rd house - Works well there, double whammy. Very very strong message to communicate. Venus in the 2nd as well, more about communication of this new money. Saturn in the 10th is it's house. Strong signal regarding work/vocation. Saturn rules the 6th but in the 10th, it is RULING it's work, so to speak. Uranus in the 4th - Nice, it is nurturing us close to home. Have to look at that in Pisces - could be tricky. So many planets in the 2nd house, which I'll say has to do a lot with resources (money)... Also a lot in the 3rd - communication, ways to communicate and process this new information. I'll say this, if I was giving an individual a reading with this chart, I'd say they could be kind of POWERFUL AND LIFE CHANGING. Enough for now, I'll let a real astrologer have a go ;-) IAS |
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Gentlemen, brace yourselves.  This is the pic I keep coming back to. What a beautiful triangle (with or without the logarithmic scale - though it looks better on the latter.) Breakout on the New Moon?  (May 10th) |
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The market depth on Gox is really starting to look strong. It is like the opposite of before we took that dip on May 1st (looking at April 30th's numbers). The bids at $70 are the 2nd highest I have recorded. They are at 125k, up from 109k yesterday (when I last checked). Nice sign. The sells at $300 are slightly down by 2k from when I last checked yesterday. Not good nor bad. And we are seeing those sell values in $ creeping up. All doing my best imitation of the Bitcoinchannel.com guy.  Yeah, the manipulation can get the better of things and twist the numbers but things are looking overall good. Anyone else? IAS |
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Wow, all those orders to 111 and then 112 and in between some orders of 13 or so BTC dropped the price by $2???
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That was interesting. There was that sell order for 450-500 or so sitting on 110. As we blew to it it went up to 600 something...
This 110 level just keeps seeing more and more sells.
It's gone!!!
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When you look at the chart going back a few months, it is pretty clear that that symmetrical like triangle is a part of the uptrend and NOT recent downtrend. Also, since it is symmetrical, that would be a good omen coming out of a big upmove. But I agree with you, I don't know. Uptrend? Where? Oh you mean this:  C'mon, clearly a bubble!  Edit: And this, children, is why we use logarithmic charts. Thank you! And can you tell us, as others including myself have asked, where did you get that Logarithmic chart? Was it built custom from Gox data? IAS |
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 EDIT: So i was thinking the other day, in a channel like the one above, if the volume is much higher at the lows then at the peaks, that would mean there is more resistance against breaking the lower support line right? Looks like a bearish pennant. Not sure: taken from http://www.trending123.com/patterns/bearish_pennant.htmlApart from its shape, the Pennant is similar in all respects to the Flag. The Pennant is also similar to the Symmetrical Triangle or Wedge continuation patterns however; the Pennant is typically shorter in duration and flies horizontally. Volume As the Pennant develops, the volume tends to decrease. Martin Pring notes in his book, Technical Analysis Explained, "a pennant is in effect a very small triangle. If anything, volume tends to contract even more during the formation of a pennant than during that of a flag." However, as with Flags, when the Pennant completes you will often observe a sharp spike in volume. Duration of the Pattern In his book, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, John J. Murphy identifies that Pennants and Flags are relatively short-term and should be completed within one to three weeks". He also notes that by comparison, the bullish patterns take longer to develop than the related bearish patterns. Trading Considerations Possibility of Price Reversal In some rare cases, the price will break against the original price movement, and create a reversal trend. The pattern reversal may be signaled during the Pennant formation by an increase in volume, as opposed to the more typical decrease. Duration of the Pattern The duration of the pattern depends on the extent of the price fluctuations (consolidation). The greater the fluctuations, the longer a pattern will take to develop. |
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Let's get back on topic maybe? Like I wrote in SlipperySlope's thread, I think we're at a critical point where two trendlines are about to collide.  Any relevant movement upwards, crossing 120, is evidence that the post-bubble correction trendline is broken, or at least getting weaker. Any sharp decline, 90 or lower, would be evidence that the mid-January growth trendline is no longer valid or weakened. No idea where we're going from here, but I believe that whatever direction it is will give us a good idea where we're going in the coming weeks. When you look at the chart going back a few months, it is pretty clear that that symmetrical like triangle is a part of the uptrend and NOT recent downtrend. Also, since it is symmetrical, that would be a good omen coming out of a big upmove. But I agree with you, I don't know. In light of all the big news lately, I really don't feel like trying to trade out and pick up more cheaper. Maybe with 30% of your holdings if you like to gamble. But I see BTC at this stage as just too open to a violent up-move. IAS |
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Imagine Facebook allows shops or the like and adds BTC as a payment! Heck, how about Paypal adds an exchange  |
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This is great news and only makes sense. BTC can become a "community" type currency. These "meet ups" are social events as well. Would love to see more of them develop but we need an easier way for the masses to take part. There isn't even an App for the Iphone (thanks Apple). But I imagine there will be a ton for Android and that will really help adoption.
At this stage it is easy to get lost in the price rise - understandable as we live in a capitalistic world, but as we continue the idea is of exchange and not so much profit (outside of slight deflation).
Anyway, things are moving VERY VERY fast right now. The BTC landscape in 6 or 12 months (only) will probably be quite a bit further along and more different than we can imagine.
Remember bitcoin is both a Black Swan and an Anti-Fragile technology (see my sig below).
It's About Sharing
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@SlipperySlope:
You keep invoking the 2011 bubble, and how you expect a similar protracted slide downwards in this one as well. I'm not going to take the cheap shot and say "past performance is no guarantee of future results", in fact, I'm not even ruling out that you are right and that we have a correction of about 3 months ahead of us, bringing us all the way down to the 20-50 USD range, but there is one thing you seem to keep ignoring:
The smaller corrections (or capitulations) in 2011 followed a decidedly different pattern than those of the current bubble. What I drew in as "corrections" in 2011 and 2103 (see charts below) is to a degree debatable, but one trend seems to hold: the corrections of 2011 followed a very obvious, steady downward trend, each time reaching a lower high, and, more or less, going to lower lows with each correction.
The 2013 corrections so far however look quite different. True, we didn't reach a new ATH, but at the same time, the low points of the last two corrections are both higher than the lows of the first two corrections. If anything, I would say the corrections so far seem to indicate a (very cautious) consolidation pattern, trying to converge at a price somewhere between 100 and 130, while the 2011 pattern could perhaps be described as "reluctantly going downwards".
I appreciate your insights a lot, and I follow your posts closely, but I'm not buying your by-the-book comparison to the 2011 price decline, if the first month after this crash already looks so much different than the month after the crash two years ago.
I wonder the same thing. The one idea that needs out attention is that the crash of 2011 was when BTC was basically unknown (relative to now). It is much easier to have happen what happened. Factor into the new crash the low amount of BTC's in existence and increasing awareness of BTC, most notably China and even the US over the last few months. I too don't outright disagree with what others are saying but we have some pretty knowledgeable guys mixed on opinions and someone will be judged to be correct. Pretty hard to call correctly what we see happening as BTC is also Geo-Political and on the radar in more ways than most of us imagine imo. IAS |
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Beware: aprox. BTC15K just appeared on the order book. That could be a nice round of bullets for the bears, prepare your bids and fasten your seat belts.
Where are you seeing that? I still see the total sales at 172k. The only wall is 2k at $130. (I'm looking at ClarkMoody) I am really careful of that order book (market depth is the same I think?) as that is where the psychological manipulation occurs. If someone wants to bring things down, they will just put out a sale at market and then add to it, no? Maybe a bit of both? |
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My concern is that once a massive buying sets in, price is going exponential and exponential is nothing but bad.
We need ~30 mil USD to go to 4 digits. Or less if panic buy really sets in.
That is a good point. But what you are probably going to see is volatility on a scale that the stock market has never seen. Instead of thinking of currency movements (e.g. - a $30 move on a $100 BTC) - imagine that as a % occurring at $1000... and so on (add mirrors for effect. ehehe) We need a better exchange system, wallets, etc. before that happens. But so much is happening now, I bet we get there in time, barring extreme situations we can't fathom. Many will cash out a portion of their holdings and roll it into regular currencies - that will be bought by others. Over time the price will stabilize but that will happen as the market understands what this is. We really don't know what it is. Think about it... A decentralized currency not under the control of governments co-existing with other currencies. Add to that, the blockchain and it's many uses. The one that gets me is decentralized DNS. Oh boy. This Black Swan is here and now we are going to see it's anti fragile nature next... |
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China is not such a big deal. Let me check...Uh oh, It's like a BTC Red Dawn! (Unless you are holding) That is really interesting, big WOW. |
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It would be plain ignorant to think that this is not being spoken about at a higher level in Washington. (No offense to the ignorant ) By higher levels I don't mean our representatives in Congress, at least very few of them. I'm talking global movers. BTC (and cryptocurrencies) must be a very very sensitive topic for obvious reasons. I'm not one to think it threatens banks as many think. In some ways it does, but we will still need loans for homes, cars, etc. (at least for a few more years depending on what happens to the banking system, to be honest.) In other words I don't see traditional forms of loans and credit applying to BTC. Any ideas there? Great article by the way. IAS |
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Does anyone know the date that the Jalapeno's were first being ordered? I see some on Ebay with order dates and wonder which are the earlier ones as once you get yours later on and the faster units come out, you will be at a loss imo.
Also, anyone know if these will run on a Mac?
Thx,
IAS
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Interesting chart. Where did you get it from?
From a colleague of mine, who used bitcoincharts.com data. ManBearPig has price data going back to 2009 which shows the trend has been consistent from the start, I don't see any option at bitcoincharts.com for that type of chart. Do you mean he just used their data and then his own charting software or ? That is a really interesting chart, probably because it just keeps going up steadily If you could find the link that would be great - much appreciated. IAS |
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Hmm..
I must practice my triangle-fu, I still don't see it.
it's easier to see on this scale: [taken approx. 12 hours ago] -===-  -===- we're just hitting that red line, the marked upper bound of the (yellow) triangle. these things are like magic So, basically we are going to finish forming that triangle (going up and down a bit) but then breakout to the upside again, as the original trend was, before the drop (started the triangles formation)? That I can believe though I'm not sure BTC is going to follow TA all that well due to it's anti-fragile & Black Swan nature |
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