...It's about having good money. And by good I mean: scarce, easily transferrable, fungible, easily auditable, accessible to anyone, ownable (deny access to others). Once you have that the economy (= the people) will thrive and prosper because the market can do its thing without money injections bloating it up in various places and distorting price signals.
I just wonder if the market can *still* do its thing without "monetary injections." It hasn't lived a"natural" lifestyle for so long, shooting meth to wake up, dope to get through the day & horse tranqs to fall asleep -- i doubt it could get clean without barfing all over the place, throwing temper tantrums & cleaning out my wallet for "just one more fix." What if the best we could look forward to is a series of methadone clinics, AA meetings & ugly relapses? "If you gonna be like this, might as well get back on the stuff, Lee." You have to watch some of Max Keisser regarding "quantitative easing". The short answer "they" we can't stop. The debt has grown so large and once we slow the printing of money we can no longer pay for the debt as the interest rates will move up. QE will continue until things pop. (We have a bond bubble as well.) Interest rates are rising anyway. Seriously, it is going to get interesting, very interesting. Talk about the worlds largest social experiment, I say the money one ends as the others have (Boom). Speaking of which, here is his latest episode - A GREAT ONE - on... Quantitative Easing. Coincidence? (Worth 2 watches.) http://rt.com/shows/keiser-report/episode-472-max-keiser-217/In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert ask whether or not it will ever be possible to unwind quantitative easing as the parallel universe it has created sucks out interest payments and central bankers’ brain cells. They discuss the latest in a long line of market rigging - this time the traders who allegedly rigged QE. In the second half, Max talks to Pete Comley, author of Inflation Tax, about inflation, how government regulated prices are rising the fastest, and the pound sterling’s century-long decline. Comley also asks where are the protests in the UK against the 11 percent theft of savings by quantitative easing? |
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What is shows is that people will do anything to get that mighty USD. Don't confuse that with love of Bitcoin...it's just another bridge to something real, secure and trusted. Oh yeah...King Dollar.  Confuse? I got to call bullshit when I see it and well... "Bullshit". It's one thing to be a short to mid term bear (and ride that wave as it agrees with your overall opinion), but it's another to distort and try to hijack and overall great picture. No matter what currency is king (and the dollar will continue for a while longer), the ability to have a tool that allows you to move in and out of it regardless of governments wishes (regulations, power, etc.) is a power we have not experienced (that I am aware of) before. Gold and Silver are too easily stopped (due to obvious reasons). To have a digital version though, is another story. So, ride the bear wave all you want but don't stretch that same bullshit to a revolutionary technology. Don't cloud what is so clear. I have a feeling when BTC once again does clearly turn around and become huge, you will not change your opinion what so ever. It's these moments that you so poorly hide that show your true colors... If I'm wrong... oops.  You can paint whatever delusions you want...they are using BTC to get USD. Period. They would use bear Sh%t, if anyone would accept if for USD but that doesn't mean they like bear sh%t. The technology is revolutionary sure but there is plenty of it out there and much more to come. Maybe BTC will be one of many to survive, maybe it won't. I could care less because what I know is the delusions of you permabulls that Bitcoin is like the "internet" and a "one world currency is imminent" are all fantasies created in your own minds. It's crypto that is like the "internet". Bitcoin is just a single brand, like Netscape or maybe AOL. Who knows, who cares. Crypto is here to stay, no denying that and I love it, especially under regulations. But Bitcoin is just another brand that can fade like any other brand. This is why I love Ripple. It's about letting people engage in commerce with ANY currency, not trying to force just one currency down everyones throat. But I digress... Bitcoin is just a type of crypto, yes. But a strong one... the first one. It's likely to make it out on top when crypto in general becomes accepted by more and more people. If not (and another, better one comes out on top), well: fine be me. I might be a little disgruntled and kick myself for not buying more TopCoin earlier, but I'll still be living in a world that has no assholes being able to print money at will and that's the real upside. Yes, they (Argentinians) are using BTC to get USD, but they're having contact with Bitcoin and actually using it. They will not just simply forget about the concept. They are now infected with the crypto virus. Takes time to incubate, but it never leaves you and in no time you find yourself bragging about how you teleported your wealth out of the country by memorizing a string of numbers and letters to your friends and had you just not converted back to USD you'd now be twice as rich, damnit, maybe I should buy some bitcoins again . "It's about letting people engage in commerce with ANY currency" <- I disagree. It's not about that. Yes: ripple is a wonderful system (or open transactions?) for allowing transmission and automatic trade of IOUs. In case you're saying XRP (the ripple built-in money you need for using the system) is the money in ripple that will become the "main currency" everything will be based off of (reserve currency) then your argument is moot because then we're talking one currency again. Ripple can be great for running your local or niche currency and it can be a good tool for transferring IOUs of existing currencies, but it doesn't solve counterparty risk or problems inherent to the moneys you're transferring IOUs of. It's about having good money. And by good I mean: scarce, easily transferrable, fungible, easily auditable, accessible to anyone, ownable (deny access to others). Once you have that the economy (= the people) will thrive and prosper because the market can do its thing without money injections bloating it up in various places and distorting price signals. Nicely said and thanks for saving me some more typing. Coinseeker likes to integrate a variety of logical fallacies into his posts and you clarified things. Exactly - it isn't about BTC per say but it is the best, most accepted and first to the show. It would be great if BTC is The One to succeed, but that is not the point. We are a part of something bigger. And correct again, it is being used and is giving us a choice as a medium of exchange. Be it for products, as a store of wealth or to subvertedly get into and out of other currencies... Really, it is like digital gold.   |
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...they are buying BTC to transfer and sell ... they still want dollars, they just want to get them out of the country as soon as possible without using suitcases.
... Thanks  love it. Don't get me wrong ... there *ought* to come a time when nobody wants dollars. But when that will be is anyone's guess. TPTB will do everything they can to prop up the house of cards for as long as possible. For the last ten years Japanese Gov Bonds have traded at ridiculously low yields ( = high price) and many have tried to call the turn and short them, seeing the situation as unsustainable (which it is ultimately). The trade has become known as 'The Widow Maker' due to the number of people who have crashed and burnt trying to call the turn. Unrealistic and unsustainable valuations can last for a very long time, defying all logic and fundamental analysis. That said, the moment of truth would appear to be approaching IMO ... just don't bet the house quite yet I somewhat learned that lesson buying puts on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (in around 2003 if memory is right). I just didn't think they would float much longer. Man, the help they received... You are right - NEVER underestimate the power of these these "people". You can see through the obscurity a bit of what they do, but you can't stop them. (You can only hope to go around them and weaken them.) And these same "people", unfortunately, have a very powerful say regarding what militaries do (though I don't think as much as they would hope for.) We are certainly getting closer to their apocalypse (Us uncovering the truth). But how long will it go on? |
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What is shows is that people will do anything to get that mighty USD. Don't confuse that with love of Bitcoin...it's just another bridge to something real, secure and trusted. Oh yeah...King Dollar. Confuse? I got to call bullshit when I see it and well... "Bullshit". It's one thing to be a short to mid term bear (and ride that wave as it agrees with your overall opinion), but it's another to distort and try to hijack and overall great picture. No matter what currency is king (and the dollar will continue for a while longer), the ability to have a tool that allows you to move in and out of it regardless of governments wishes (regulations, power, etc.) is a power we have not experienced (that I am aware of) before. Gold and Silver are too easily stopped (due to obvious reasons). To have a digital version though, is another story. So, ride the bear wave all you want but don't stretch that same bullshit to a revolutionary technology. Don't cloud what is so clear. I have a feeling when BTC once again does clearly turn around and become huge, you will not change your opinion what so ever. It's these moments that you so poorly hide that show your true colors... If I'm wrong... oops. |
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Why is the price of BTC 30%-40% higher (or something like that) in Argentina? Probably partly for the reason you "stated". You are seeing a free market go for what it knows. Also, there are plenty of freedom fighters our there (not to mention some of whom are governments) that can get on a plane with an address full of BTC and go there and either sell them, give them away or some combination of the two...
BTC is revolutionary, we shouldn't lose sight of it. We are not so much talking about a currency competitor. We are talking about a currency that is stateless at a time when corrupt states (most all) are collapsing around the world. Chew on that.
fuck yeah! As I understand it, and I am very happy to be corrected, the price differential is Argentina is relative to the price in Uruguay. Basically due to rampant devaluation of fiat people are trying to move their cash out of there and BTC is proving a useful medium. Uruguay is the playground for wealthy Argentinians, so it is the obvious place for them to move money too. So they are paying over the odds to buy BTC in Argentina and then being 'skimmed' at the other end when converting them back into dollars. It's a classic opportunistic arbitrage, but apparently a price worth paying to move money out of the country. I don't believe it has a net impact on demand, as they are buying BTC to transfer and sell ... they still want dollars, they just want to get them out of the country as soon as possible without using suitcases. That they are using BTC for this is a double edged sword in terms of utility vs potential clampdown. The opening salvos are definitely being fired in this case and it will be interesting to see how it evolves. Thanks for that info as I hadn't heard nor thought of that before. Free market in action and as you said, it is showing us something quite interesting. The "scary" part, is that we are just scratching the surface. Extrapolate that out and things get interesting. (Oh, and we are not even at the Netscape Navigator navigator stage yet, we are at the Mosaic stage ...) Imagine, only 11 million of these "bits" in existence for the world to do with it what it will. (Not counting other crypto-currencies of course.) MUST MUST LISTEN TO: Your minds will have fun running with this... Latest Let's Talk Bitcoin: Subvert your government (and a whole lot more): http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheDailyBitcoinShow/~5/Ol5FMDmh8Ng/101753710-mindtomatter-e25-subvert-your-government.mp3 |
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There's been allot going on, and I've been feeling fairly confident about long-term bullishness, but after a recent conversation with a sceptic, I realised that I haven't got much more than dangerous inductive reasoning to convince anyone that bitcoin will continue to rise another order of magnitude from here. The straight line on that log graph of BTC value since its inception doesn't mean it will carry on growing like that for ever, especially as many factors change as it grows. I've heard talk about VCs getting involved, but haven't really seen much evidence for that other than the Winkie-twins featurette. Long term bull as well (short to mid term bear) and questions are welcome and needed for the community imo. We are a part of a very complex system, that apparently is breaking down. At the center of this system, I see 2 main things: The control of information and the control of money. Basically, we can say "The control of people via many ways." But, those 2 ways are key. The internet has been easing the first and BTC or something like it, is the 2nd. There is something quite big going on, but,... we are in the eye of the hurricane so to speak, and don't notice it. Though I would not put too much weight on what another says in any one conversation. Look to the larger data set and not that of one person... The VC's are a great point, do they want the price to go up, or perhaps are they ready to double down or ... ;-) - The principles that 'ensure' its significant value increase seem to depend principally on mass adoption. A start for that is serious big businesses, but they won't adopt something so volatile, and without their adopting it, it will not stabilise other than by transient unconvincing manipulation. 11.5 million BTC's, rising up to 21 million in roughly 120 years. That is sort of a small amount of "shares". Considering BTC is a multifaceted "thing" (e.g. - currency, commodity, store of worth, protocol, etc.) I would think there aren't enough... But luckily, we have those 8 decimal places. ;-) And the open source to make it 20 when need be. If enough people around the world just used it as a store of wealth the price would be huge (lots of money out there and it is continually being devalued). We need about 1% of the global money supply to be hugely successful. But, I don't think there is a little bit with BTC. It is either going to be worth 0 or a whole lot. It is hard to envision that as the even horizon is blocking (most of) us out. - If you want to buy BTC in say, Argentina, I can't imagine anyone wanting to sell BTC for Argentine currency, so I can't see how it could be adopted there by any more than a small privileged group. And I don't really buy into the trickle down effect. Why is the price of BTC 30%-40% higher (or something like that) in Argentina? Probably partly for the reason you "stated". You are seeing a free market go for what it knows. Also, there are plenty of freedom fighters our there (not to mention some of whom are governments) that can get on a plane with an address full of BTC and go there and either sell them, give them away or some combination of the two... BTC is revolutionary, we shouldn't lose sight of it. We are not so much talking about a currency competitor. We are talking about a currency that is stateless at a time when corrupt states (most all) are collapsing around the world. Chew on that. - Post-bubble realisations are certainly quenching allot of the investment hype and get rich quick input, and will do so increasingly in the next few months as people realise that mining is only worth it if you can afford development contracts with a chip manufacturer or the like. And I don't see enough confidence in the market to start a truly sustainable up-trend. Enjoy the experiment but I have a feeling it will work itself out. Humanity, in part, is depending on it. I see BTC getting bigger, but I'm beginning to fear that this may be the beginning of its asymptote, as a niche that will always be awesome, but won't get mass adoption leading to $1000+ per BTC without some sort of extreme revolutionary event of the kind our governments are adequately well equipped to prevent. I guess it depends on how bad the shit gets, how many more wars are started with tax payer dollars that we want nothing to do with, how many more oppressed people just say they have had enough, etc. I get the feeling more and more by reading your questions that you are seeing BTC as JUST an investment. That is sort of like saying an awakened person is spiritual... Well yeah, but... I'm fairly ignorant on this subject, but so are the 99.9% who haven't gotten on board. So the question is, how can we be certain this will really go allot higher. 200-300, maybe for a while, but 1000?...
Good to see you thinking, it helps all of us. Ignorance that is recognized is not exactly ignorance though, is it? It is not about higher, it is about adoption. It is about the principal of what it represents and why it is attracting people to it (Don't forget those people who's currency is inflating at 30% a year and who's government does a reboot every 8 years with their currency). Yes, price will be a measure of BTC and even though we are on the "speculation" forum, BTC is sooooo much more than an investment and to talk about it just like that trivializes it, much like porn trivializes sex. The investment part will "reveal" itself, but we are changing history. Perhaps not just with BTC, but with what it is, what is developing from it, and what it becomes. There are many facets to this diamond and if we only look at a part of it, we are sort of missing the picture. |
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Considering I just bought a few BTC, the price is bound to go down Say what, 40 in the first week or 2 of August?  (where are the TA ppl when you need them! ) I'm almost certain it is related to solipsism. I can call it great, check my posts, but when I actually buy lately, I don't (check my posts). Seriously, as important as emotions are, they seem to get in the way with trading. Intuition, yes. Logic, yes. Emotions, no. |
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Well, maybe our Sunday seller will make a return and get things moving around here. Yea, we miss him, 24h gox volume will be 6k in one hour...  Then it's setting up a nice price volume negative divergence. That is a reliable indicator DURING down movements, but not so much during sideways movements, as of late. We'll see... |
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Well, maybe our Sunday seller will make a return and get things moving around here. |
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We just recovered 5 dollars and no activity here? Seriously?
Bears aren't dancing anymore....
Recovered 4-5 dollars, yet still down 4-5 dollars on the same crash. Hmmm....and you're excited why? Because it's not as bad as it was?  Ahhh, my one time Nemesis, now turned ally... Who would have thunk. (But I'm still keeping a close eye on you. )  |
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Things are interesting right now. Uranus is moving back over the Midheaven (10th house cusp at the top of the chart) and that is "shocking" to how BTC acts in the "workplace", BTC's workplace. It is in the sign of aries and I like to think of that as a bit of discovery via "trial and error".(Maybe a big contract or something like that?) Overall a positive thing, but often quite traumatic (Gox news?). Really interesting to try to apply astrology to a cryptocurrency, especially considering the greater overall astrological transits right now. Speaking of which,
...
IAS
Maybe a big contract or something like that? The approx $12,000,000 sale of SatoshiDice announced on the 18th was a nice big contract and price discovery, certainly quite a news shock for the many invested in it. ehheh, You beat me to it! I thought that yesterday. Certainly astrology being pretty close there, eh? And the down movement yesterday also got me thinking about the "darker" aspects of the 12th. Well, if that is a confirmation it should continue next week... IAS |
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What is this? A chart for ants? Close...  |
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Yes or No?
I say yes.
A few countries are clearly going to need more help. Greece just got another 8.7 Billion in loans. That won't change things a whole lot for BTC (but it will continue to draw attention to it.) What will rock things is if and when there are Bail ins. That is being talked about and many are ready for it. A few are probably preparing to move money into Gold, silver, BTC, etc (and actually, that has started. Which is why central banks around the world are huge gold buyers and at the same time depressing the gold price (e.g. - Everything is ok, gold is not high, move along people). Anything will be better than having your money (and gold from your bank like in Cypress) stolen just to get more printed money from a central bank. If that happens...  |
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interesting part is that people who are waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (which i think already happend and bubble deflated at $65) for $120 mark then they will have to buy back half the coins they could have at $65.
People here often show 2011 bubble to compare to 2013 one but they seem to don't see that no matter what, after one bubble there will be another 10 times bigger. This was the case 3 times now and will happen again. Then why one is trying to hit the bottom to buy if they can just buy now, sit, relax and enjoy the ride to the top? They will profit anyway and trying to hit bottom may as well end up in losing coins.
Because having 1,000 coins is very different to having 500 coins. Hitting the very bottom is pure luck, but buying 50% lower than you sold is quite achievable in a Bitcoin bear market. OK, let's run with your assertion. There are three broad groups: First, holders who haven't sold yet... If they haven't sold at $65, they're unlikely to do it at $50, $32, or whatever the fashionable number is. If forum melodrama about capitulation were going to affect them, it would have happened already. Then there are people who sold and are waiting for cheap coins. We can assume that most of these people sold well above $100 -- many passed the bag over at $160. These people would double their holdings by getting in between $65 and now. Provided they get in in time. Sure enough, that's where the recent volume came from. The third group is speculators who will ride each wave in either direction. For the purposes of this thought experiment, they aren't very relevant. The subset of people who sold much lower and later is likely smaller an less significant than the above groups. I'm not going to say for sure that the bottom is in -- markets take time to turn -- but it shouldn't be surprising to anyone if it is. The absolute certainty with which bears bay for blood after we're already more than 70% off the peak valuation just magnifies their folly, and is very similar to bulls' behaviour near the peak. The volatility has already been sufficient to redistribute coins appropriately. Bear in mind also that all this is against a background of increasing investment in Bitcoin infrastructure and start ups. Overall the baseline non-speculative value is constantly increasing. Good points. I do wonder about group 1 though. They now have the realization of the violence of the moves and probably a lot of them read the forums and we all see the amount of people yelling for $50 coins. And if they see the price starting to go down, I do wonder if they start to sell. The amount of coins they have is huge. Even a small percentage of them selling (which is reasonable) would affect the move down. There are probably a lot of people who have been buying in through all of this and who have loose hands. If the price gets much lower than current prices, I don't doubt they sell. Also, I think there are probably quite a few other scenarios that can take place but we'll see how this all ends up. Speculating is sort of fun. I guess, for me, the idea is not to get greedy (Make use of my abilities and try to increase my position with moves in and out since my funds are very limited). As Rampion said, don't try to call the absolute bottom, but if you can pick up more coins even within 50% of it, that is beneficial. And if we buy higher then hopefully lesson learned (though I still have a cushion). Those big buyers and sellers have certainly shown us this market can move violently and we should never lose sight of that. IAS |
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IAS, I think we will definitely visit the '50s but I'm not sure if it will happen so fast as in your extrapolation. My impression is that we have entered a "slowish" phase, and I don't expect impulsive moves downwards for the moment, just sideway trading + a few dumps that will gradually take us down for a while, mixed up with bounces and traps.
Regarding the SatoshiDice thing, I'm honestly not expecting big dumping by the shareholders who received the monies. My guess is that the big dump related to the SD buyout already happened, insiders dumped before the thing hit the news, as usual in both BTC and FIAT world - and that IMO explains at least partially the dump that took us to the '80s from the high '90s.
The dumping of SD shareholders don't seem to me like a probable bearapocalypse, what really intrigues me is when the SD buyer bought his +100k coins. Did he bought in the last weeks? In the last months? +100k are big volume, and I wonder how much of the big moves upwards triggered in the last weeks are direct consequence of the buying of the new owner of SD. If he did most of the buying in the last weeks, and thus is responsible of the impulsive move upwards from $66 to $104, I think the lack of buying pressure will be much more relevant than the eventual "dumping" of SD ex-shareholders.
I was thinking the bolded yesterday, after I heard the announcement. The big moves up were probably them buying shares. Though, that sounds really inefficient so doesn't make sense on another level. I can't imagine some of those guys will not be selling their BTC's. Though I doubt we see an exodus and we probably already would have seen that... Thanks for the prediction of a slow move down. Something I have to consider. |
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Nice site, if you haven't checked out https://www.tradingview.com/ I really recommend it. I don't know how to use most of the drawing tools but it is pretty intuitive and allows for creativity. So, what do you all think of visiting $50 - $40 between July 23rd ish and the beginning of August? I'm really happy with the triangle feature ;-) And the overbought needs correcting...  |
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... To see the truth in the false
The craving for experience is the beginning of illusion. As you now realize, your visions were but the projections of your background, of your conditioning, and it is these projections that you have experienced. Surely this is not meditation. The beginning of meditation is the understanding of the background, of the self, and without this understanding, what is called meditation, however pleasurable or painful, is merely a form of self-hypnosis. You have practised self-control, mastered thought, and concentrated on the furthering of experience. This is a self-centred occupation, it is not meditation; and to perceive that it is not meditation is the beginning of meditation. To see the truth in the false sets the mind free from the false. Freedom from the false does not come about through the desire to achieve it; it comes when the mind is no longer concerned with success with the attainment of an end. There must be the cessation of all search, and only then is there a possibility of the coming into being of that which is nameless. Stuff like that always reminds me of a line from Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: "Learning to fly is easy. The knack lies in learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss." ehehehe, which reminds me, I'd much rather have 42 BTC's than 45... |
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@bclcjunkie - Well said. The way I see it is that it doesn't matter if a person is a hater or a Fan boy. What matters is what they say (and in a sense how they say it). Even in bullshit there is truth. If someone is hating while I'm bullish, I still look at what they say, perhaps more so as then I have something "to lose". And likewise in the other direction. But even Shrooms..., ok, not him, but lets say coinseeker (who I have had my disagreements with), when he has something to say with a bit of proof - I listen. I just remember some wise words by J. Krishnamurti. I bolded the most relavant part but left it as one piece as it is really, well, deep... To see the truth in the false
The craving for experience is the beginning of illusion. As you now realize, your visions were but the projections of your background, of your conditioning, and it is these projections that you have experienced. Surely this is not meditation. The beginning of meditation is the understanding of the background, of the self, and without this understanding, what is called meditation, however pleasurable or painful, is merely a form of self-hypnosis. You have practised self-control, mastered thought, and concentrated on the furthering of experience. This is a self-centred occupation, it is not meditation; and to perceive that it is not meditation is the beginning of meditation. To see the truth in the false sets the mind free from the false. Freedom from the false does not come about through the desire to achieve it; it comes when the mind is no longer concerned with success with the attainment of an end. There must be the cessation of all search, and only then is there a possibility of the coming into being of that which is nameless. |
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Danke, Somehow this fits... Darth Vader: Your powers are weak, old man.  |
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Stop spreading FUD!!!  Hey Frozenlock, how can I propose you as a mod? I think Blitz could use some help I say you three, and you shall be known as "The Trivium"... ps - Anyone know of a good site to just get the basics of Elliot Wave? (I do think that is what guys are using when referring to waves? Ex Surfer here ;-) ) |
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