Using my simple D double o D double o style, my predictions for a bottom. ;-) 40 - 50
its great but why i don't see this in a bid walls or in the news. i'm getting tired of your promises of cheap coins. Its not going to happen, trend already reversed. It will never fall below 80. I think you should try to see out of "black and white." As has been said before, most of us short to mid term bears are long term BIG BULLS. That includes me. Sorry but the chart says otherwise, as do the fundamentals. Try to come up with a PE valuation for current levels. Not spouting but I did call the top on June 20 - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2535428#msg2535428 And a few other good calls along the way down. I mentioned a potential bounce of the 65 to 68 area when we were there, but couldn't pull the trigger at the bottom of a big red candle. And most recently the above chart and this one from 2 days ago - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2751229#msg2751229I say we are going lower. And what are you talking about in the bid walls? A big seller comes along and that bid wall is gone. We have learned it in both directions, and in the last few weeks. If you are tired and I was wrong that was one thing, but I've been right waaaaaaaay more than wrong (Just wish I played those calls but I'm a long term bull looking for a re-entry.) |
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Using my simple D double o D double o style, my predictions for a bottom. ;-) 40 - 50  |
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Right now Bitstamp shows the future price of MtGox.
Or MtGox shows the future price of Bitstamp. I think that bitstamp should follow gox, because of difference in volume...? Well think about it. If Gox has a problem getting money out, then how do you get money out? You buy coins and sell them elsewhere. What does that do? It drives the price down on these others exchanges. And, it also inflates the price on Gox as your choice there is to either buy coins or sit in fiat. No taking your money out, no moving it to another exchange (outside of via coins), etc. Gox is still the leader in volume but that is declining fairly steadily. I think they are a very secure exchange, but people are getting tired of their crap. The choices are increasing, and if you are not a daytrader, then Gox is no longer the clear leader (actually, even if you are...) the issue with that is once any other exchange gets the VOLUME and $$$$$$ amount in their banks they too will have more issues. it's not like mtgox INVENTED these banking problems. once bitstamp and campbx get huge influx they too many have issues regarding traditional banking wires and fiat liquidity Come on, you are really simplifying things. I think like Gox's trade engine their transfer "engine" (paper) is sub standard. Look at the volume on Bitstamp:  So, you mean to tell me that at 60 million you experience delays (for 1 month now) but at 20 million you don't??? 2 or 3 days to get money out of Bitstamp, 3 - 4 weeks for Gox. What is wrong with this ratio? I think someone at Gox is not telling the whole story. I do like Gox, but the transfer thing is fishy. |
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Right now Bitstamp shows the future price of MtGox.
Or MtGox shows the future price of Bitstamp. I think that bitstamp should follow gox, because of difference in volume...? Well think about it. If Gox has a problem getting money out, then how do you get money out? You buy coins and sell them elsewhere. What does that do? It drives the price down on these others exchanges. And, it also inflates the price on Gox as your choice there is to either buy coins or sit in fiat. No taking your money out, no moving it to another exchange (outside of via coins), etc. Gox is still the leader in volume but that is declining fairly steadily. I think they are a very secure exchange, but people are getting tired of their crap. The choices are increasing, and if you are not a daytrader, then Gox is no longer the clear leader (actually, even if you are...) |
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Just to get this out there. Still not sure where we go but...  |
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Things are interesting right now. Uranus is moving back over the Midheaven (10th house cusp at the top of the chart) and that is "shocking" to how BTC acts in the "workplace", BTC's workplace. It is in the sign of aries and I like to think of that as a bit of discovery via "trial and error".(Maybe a big contract or something like that?) Overall a positive thing, but often quite traumatic (Gox news?). Really interesting to try to apply astrology to a cryptocurrency, especially considering the greater overall astrological transits right now. Speaking of which,
There is a strong Trine in the heavens right now (3 planets roughly 120 degrees apart - quite nice, just needs a little activation or effort). We have Saturn (4th house in Scorpion), Neptune (8th house, Pisces) and Jupiter (12th house, Cancer). Also, Mars is right next to Jupiter about to touch in the next few days. That could ignite things, BUT the 12th house is very water and that might be repressed, or it might be just enough to create a "breakout", quite literally. In a sense that trine can overcome a bit of the danger present in the 12th (great house, but we must be careful here).
One can simplistically say something huge can arise from this. It is affecting the planet right now, in a positive way. Those three planets combined, hmmm, maybe a bit of structure close to home that brings about a transformation, a death of false "spiritual" perspectives and a bit more benevolence and luck spiritually or in a non physical way. Hard for me to combine those energies quickly. But things can be big or they can be boom.
The danger is all of our planets in the 12th house, which can often "disable" physically (or activate spiritually). We have the Sun, Mercury, Jupiter and soon Mars. That is dangerous to me but again, Mars might activate things and jupiter is just a huge beneficial planet to have.
I don't like the BTC stock chart much, but the community is pretty split on that, so it is a toss up.
Play this carefully but it can be an opportune time and/or a dangerous one in a way (that 12th house stuff).
IAS
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I'm debating pulling the trigger on one as well. I just don't like putting cash down for a unit when i could buy shares at this point. The bigger gamble is the price of BTC dropping hard. And to add some evidence to that, outside of the decent probability that we are still correcting, is the Gox problems regarding their illiquidity problem. That .25 BTC bounty for a screenshot of a successful withdrawl (active for days now and still unmet) is VERY TELLING. The growing disparity between Gox and STamp is also a concern. I would love to get a miner but right now buying BTC at these prices is a gamble. On top of that getting a September delivery met is a bigger gamble. And on top of that the large numbers of ASICs about to be shipped is an even bigger gamble. Suffice to say, the odds are not in our favor. My bet is to buy BTC if and when the price comes down. I'll support the network with my erupter and Client and whenever my 7Gh Jalapeno arrives... |
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MtGox price is decoupling from Bitstamp and BTC-e again. There seems to be concern because there hasn't been a single person sighted who has actually successfully withdrawn money from MtGox since they announced the end of the hiatus. If this is true, then money hasn't been allowed to flee MtGox for at least a month. I'd consider the MtGox price distorted, and I'm not sure how long Bitstamp and BTC-e are going to follow it that much, so the price gap will probably widen more.
Personally, I doubt MtGox is broke, but clearly they are having major problems probably with their banks, and they aren't forthright about things and keeping silent.
They discussed the insolvency possibility on this episode of Let's Talk Bitcoin? http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheDailyBitcoinShow/~5/Bv_o-_Nqxog/100831526-mindtomatter-e23-1-is-mt-gox-insolvent-lets.mp3One of the hosts makes a fairly good case to worry about things. Gox (and other exchanges) can be like banks. But, they hold BTC's and they Hold $$$. Well, people will not take all their coins out at one time (no runs) and Gox knows this (they observe this). The coins are just on the books (and offline) and there is no transparent way to see if they actually say they have what they have. Sort of fractional reserve Bitcoining. Anything like this happens and that would be terrible. Right now the pressure is on Gox, but any exchange can do likewise. They can sell BTC when they think it will be going lower and then buy it back later. This can get them in trouble of course. They can likewise be creative with their cash. I mean look at what banks do with our cash. (You deposit 10,000 and they can loan out 9,000 roughly, and so on, and so on.)  |
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With more and more people getting involved in mining, how profitable can it be for tens of thousands of people to compete for 3600 BTC's a day?
Just running some basic numbers, it doesn't look great. The big miners have an advantage but it is becoming more and more a gamble, for all
the reasons listed (and some unknowns for sure). And the risks are being compounded with BTC's falling price.
Wow, what it must have been like to be an early miner with no competition, great returns and a dream. But that is mostly a dream now.
Personally, I see it as helping the network (whenever my 7Gh BFL arrives) and hopefully I break even then have a nice piece of Nostalgia to show my daughter when BTC is around in 10 years. Seriously, I'll run that bad boy 10 years from now to keep my tea/coffee warm!
I just think at current prices (and lower) and considering the ever increasing amount of competition, mining is turning into something different.
Further, there is the chance that manufacturers become the miners and that is a big no as far as centralization goes.
Now when and if BTC gets into the hundreds and then thousands of dollars, there will probably be another wave of ASIC's in a new fashion...
Very interesting experiment we have on our hands...
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ATM everything is proceeding as expected.
Big bounce from the 200 day EMA, and then a longish period of "wait and see" (I said that as long as two weeks of sideways trading was expected, just as we had before the fast crash to $66).
Fiat in the order book increasing, coins decreasing. An important milestone will be the shipping of ASIC miners en mass. ATM they are just a few, and they still enjoy good profits. No need to dump all the coins on the market. That will change soon.
This is an interesting point I've been wondering about lately. I also believe they mentioned this on "Let's Talk Bitcoin" in the last week. What is going to happen with so many new mining rigs getting out there? The GPU miners will all off, almost there now. I do wonder though, how many of these miners are just going to sit on their mined coins. The thing is, if many expect a downward movement in the price, then why not sell some while you can??? And what about all those coins already mined? Hmmmmm Personally, I would probably sit on the coins, unless I was desperate for cash. Something about "owning" coins I've mined. I'm a miner myself, and people in here doesn't not understand what a deep change in the game are ASICs. With GPUs, you could buy a $500 set-up and mine to hoard, as the investment was negligible and you could always sell your GPUs to gamers, "recouping your costs" was no big deal and no priority, it was a hobbyist occupation for 95% of the miners. Now, the only purpose of those $2k, $4k, $7k ASIC rigs is to mine Bitcoin, and maaaany people didn't throw at those machines only "play money". Professional operations with the only purpose of generating PROFIT are being build up. Yes, many are still Bitcoin believers so they will hoard, but after they paid for their costs. And their aggregate costs are huge. BFL has millions of $ in preorders not shipped yet. KnC has millions of $ in preorders, there are millions of $ in Avalon chips, Bitfury machines and whatnot... Now the very few ASIC miners (mostly Avalon miners, they are just a few hundred individuals) have enjoyed very healthy profits. They paid for their machines in a few days, with a few coins. But the profitability is declining VERY HARD, so more coins will have to be sold by the miners to recoup their hardware costs, which are denominated in FIAT. Many seem to hide their heads in the ground, but the hard fact is that 10s of millions of $ have been invested in machines which only use is to mine BTC, and those 10s of millions of $ in mining rigs are a cost that miners are willing to recoup ASAP. Some in here say "well, the BTC/USD will be higher, and miners will have to sell less coins to recover their costs". That's a logical fallacy, because the higher is going to be the BTC/USD, the more people will invest in mining hardware, making the amount of generated coins more distributed and in fewer quantity per individual miner/operation, thus the 3,600 BTC generated per day will be probably dumped almost immediately, at least during the next few months, until the mining gold-rush is over and stabilizes, and the miners that are entering the ASIC game pay for their investment. Thanks for the info, helps me to postulate here a bit more. Well, it is becoming a much bigger gamble for miners. Their rigs will have no long term resale value as long as we have a very high or increasing difficulty. (Not to mention that there is talk of integrating Scrypt or a combination in the future, but that is just an unknown at this point.) I was close to ordering a Bitfury Rig (25Gh) for August delivery but I waited a few hours too long. 25Gh in August would have been good, but 25Gh for the same price in October would probably be bad and also very very risky. I still have a 7Gh on order from BFL but don't expect it till October, how do you think I feel? LOL I knew this when I ordered it though and honestly, a big part of the order is I think it will be worth more in 10 years than now.  I do hope they allow upgrades (more) as the shipping date gets closer as the difficulty is going up and they will just have a lot of cancelled orders to deal with. I do think quite a few of the miners have deep pockets as the cost of these rigs is getting higher and higher, so perhaps for some of them they will just hold ("hoard" is not appropriate here imo.) 3600 Coins are mined a day (25 per block, block=10 minutes=150hrX24=3600 per day) and that doesn't sound like too many coins (as long as we are growing). We have to look at the daily volume and find a reasonable percentage range that these coins will make up of it. So, let's say an average daily volume of 25,000, and into that we have to factor in 3600. Now, how many of those 3600 coins are sold daily into 25,000? If all are sold (which is not the case) we are talking only 14% and I think the market can absorb that. But, how much of that volume is day trading? Most of it? That changes things. What the market can't absorb is dumping by existing holders (from mining). Anyway, what is the true effect of potential sales here?... |
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ATM everything is proceeding as expected.
Big bounce from the 200 day EMA, and then a longish period of "wait and see" (I said that as long as two weeks of sideways trading was expected, just as we had before the fast crash to $66).
Fiat in the order book increasing, coins decreasing. An important milestone will be the shipping of ASIC miners en mass. ATM they are just a few, and they still enjoy good profits. No need to dump all the coins on the market. That will change soon.
This is an interesting point I've been wondering about lately. I also believe they mentioned this on "Let's Talk Bitcoin" in the last week. What is going to happen with so many new mining rigs getting out there? The GPU miners will all off, almost there now. I do wonder though, how many of these miners are just going to sit on their mined coins. The thing is, if many expect a downward movement in the price, then why not sell some while you can??? And what about all those coins already mined? Hmmmmm Personally, I would probably sit on the coins, unless I was desperate for cash. Something about "owning" coins I've mined. |
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1000 bid order is popping up desperately trying to push it up over 100.
It just doesn't stop. At face value they want it up over 100, or someone is just playing games... It's not some conspiracy, I'm sick and tired of newbs thinking the market is heavily manipulated because it doesn't go where they themselves baselessly predicted. Man, that isn't so nice to say. Not nice to try to group people by using words like conspiracy either - I don't see the connection. Who said anything about a conspiracy? (which means 2 or more individuals working together - that was not implied). Conspiracy and other name-calling (e.g. tin foil wearing) unfortunately, has become a word to discredit future digging. The larger point is the point made, which you skipped over and grouped as conspiracy, not to mention name called. The poster brought up someone flashing a 1000 BTC buy, why not address what that could mean? In general, people assume it's more than one person doing the manipulation, that's why I addressed it as a conspiracy. Although there's always the rich lone gunman trope that's not too far off. Anyways, there's always walls, and many whales are not so bright. Some think they can manipulate the market, but chances are, people will try calling what they think is a bluff. Then there's the genuine whales who places large bid/ask walls in hope that they actually gets quickly filled, for better or for worse, which I think is likely the case here. But some people might think it's a bluff and sell into it. As for whales with large orders, they think the market will go in a direction, and they want to cause a chain reaction by shifting their weight around. They aren't out to push the market up just a little then sell, they're in it for the more mid-term/long-term, unless they start to panic. Most whales only place small orders, unless something big is happening. Whales can't change the overall trend, unless they had millions, and timed everything perfectly, to include the correct wave counts, etc. This would likely be a great loss to them. It's better for them to go with the trend, and where the market is willing to go. Now why didn't you just say that to begin with? I enjoy learning and appreciate your reply. I've observed that emotion is more concerned with being right, but when you can use Grammar, Logic and Rhettoric (and maybe throw in some emotion - I'm not against it), well then you got a Triviumatic way of understanding... So, do you see these whales as being "successful" and if so, to what end? (e.g. - a mid term move here would be quite substantial, depending on what mid term means to you. And the correction, even more so.) Myself, I saw todays move as not really successful, at least not compared to the last big rise in price (but they had technical indicators on their side and now that isn't exactly there and I wonder about the lack of buying after "their" large buys today.) |
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1000 bid order is popping up desperately trying to push it up over 100.
It just doesn't stop. At face value they want it up over 100, or someone is just playing games... It's not some conspiracy, I'm sick and tired of newbs thinking the market is heavily manipulated because it doesn't go where they themselves baselessly predicted. Man, that isn't so nice to say. Not nice to try to group people by using words like conspiracy either - I don't see the connection. Who said anything about a conspiracy? (which means 2 or more individuals working together - that was not implied). Conspiracy and other name-calling (e.g. tin foil wearing) unfortunately, has become a word to discredit future digging. The larger point is the point made, which you skipped over and grouped as conspiracy, not to mention name called. The poster brought up someone flashing a 1000 BTC buy, why not address what that could mean? |
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1000 bid order is popping up desperately trying to push it up over 100.
It just doesn't stop. At face value they want it up over 100, or someone is just playing games... |
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I picked up a few coins today, sort of as insurance in case we run but also as I just hate not having any Bitcoins, yes, outside of 1 Casascius, I didn't have any! Knowing your fundamental view I must say you have balls of steel sitting there with no coins... Maybe he sold at $160 and believes tomorrow price will not be higher. :-) (but guy who can afford to lose $200M can keep price above $200 forever (only 20% btc are trading) ) I sold out at 106 (only 14% or so profit) and rode fiat down. Still upset I didn't buy at 68. I was sooooo close, really. Anyway, it won't matter in the end as BTC is going to probably do quite well. Balls of steal... Hmmmm, sort of but it was also a bit of overconfidence and we all have to be careful of that in this market. |
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Testing 100 again...
I almost didn't want to post my "taunt" above because of the ramifications... |
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looks to me like those whales have pushed the price up around 3% the last 24 hours, I wouldnt call that a failure
Not in and of itself. But when you saw the effort needed (the size of the buys) to move BTC up a few dollars and then retrace down (not to mention slippage), it was a bit amusing... To see few buyers follow "the leader" was even more amusing. Kazu - I think the longer we stay here the harder it becomes as those sells are stacked up pretty good. My bet is they want the bids to pile up before dumping (no big guess.) |
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I picked up a few coins today, sort of as insurance in case we run but also as I just hate not having any Bitcoins, yes, outside of 1 Casascius, I didn't have any! Sitting in pure fiat was too much for me. It is a pretty conflicting state to be in, loving BTC but not liking the current market/price/etc. All or nothing is probably not the smartest anyway. Enough self justification?  That said, what I noticed today was some VERY big buyers being unable to manipulate the price any higher. I say manipulate as the slippage was just too much. They were bad businessmen (unless they get a rally started). Probably the same "bad buyer" that stopped a crash below 100 on a Sunday weeks ago. Probably the same guys buying all the way up recently. It really looks like resistance at 100 and a little bit beyond is just too much. On the one hand (me being a HUGE BTC BULL) it was funny to hear crickets after that 5000+ BTC order went through. It felt good to be calm. I thought "It just isn't working anymore. How are they going to unload? How deep are there pockets?" On the other hand, you never know when the public at large buys into the rally. From sentiment on the TA boards/threads, it seems like people want to see us hold over 100 and perhaps even get past 107 or the like. Well, that is going to take a lot more buying than we saw today. And remember, for all those whale buyers we've seen lately, don't forget those whale sellers from before the recent rally. |
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What the heck, look at these examples given: Bear toss noun: a new market term that describes an argument or action that directly affects the market price positively. A successful bear toss this morning by a new ASIC developer brought bitcoin's market price up 20%.
Before leaving Wikileaks, Julian Assange made a failed attempt at a bear toss by claiming that the US government was supporting bitcoin.I don't get the term "bear toss" though, as it should be "bull toss" but perhaps they missed... |
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It certainly looks like that $500,000 buy had little effect. The resistance is building. The longer we stay here the more it may build.
It's the bid side that is building up, not the resistance...  Well, good to see those bids, a whale may come round for unloading purposes now. But regarding the resistance. What I mean is psychological and won't show up in the bid/sum. I guess you can find it over time as just being a tough 100 barrier to cross, a place where sellers enter. Really depends as I see another decent buy came in. Seems like all the big orders, maybe 90% + of them are buys. |
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