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2101  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 27, 2013, 03:23:27 PM
Anyone think these circled patterns resemble (perhaps not exactly) symmetrical triangles on a falling price?
Not sure how accurate a 4hour chart is but I'd say we are about to break down a bit here...

2102  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 27, 2013, 02:58:20 PM
The only reason someone is buying on ox now is to cash out on a exchange with USD withdrawals.  That's why there's a continued spread against the non-gox exchanges.

Prices will continue to slowly decrease.  Note that it won't be a sudden crash because now that so many cash outflow conduits are cut, it's much more difficult to withdraw the cash.  On CampBX for example, dumpin 500 coins will slip the price almost $20.   ...so people will be unloading slowly.

There's no upside here.  Adoption of BTC is well below the hype, and the public mindset, post-crash, that it's more like a pyramid scheme than a currency.

The underlying demand for btc purchases can be sustained by a price of under $10 (especially now with all the capital controls).   ...but think about that for a moment.   A loss of over 90% of the current price over the next few months will have a deleterious impact on the cash flows with various exchanges, which could cause some significant turbulence even at the bottom.  Some exchanges / services allow for margin / leverage.  Those exchanges may not be able to tolerate wild price swings and may end up insolvent overnight.

...so all in all, it's going to be a turbulent time.  Make sure to only play with money you don't mind losing.

I don't doubt what you say. The thing we have to fear with a high price is that we get noticed. It is better to have a low profile for the next year or two, build the infrastructure up and then take off. I imagine there will be a bit of accumulation during that time and the next move up will make the last one seem tame by comparison. A lot of this depends on what happens with our economic system though and the world situation.

If it comes down and believers accumulate more and then later the price is sky high, I hope those with lots will help society to go forward as things might be getting ugly the next few years.
Let us not forget the true purpose here. We are slowly adopting a new system and supplanting one that has been responsible for enslaving mankind via wars, usury, etc. for thousands of years.
2103  Economy / Speculation / Re: Looks more and more like a 2011 repeat on: June 27, 2013, 02:52:00 PM
That is a good news, it means 2015 it will touch 2000

I highly doubt that.

Look at Google Trends:


In spring of 2013 Bitcoin was everywhere in the Mainstream Media (e.g. because of the Euro crisis). What do you think comes next? The Intergalactic Media?


It seems like people are losing interest in Bitcoin. You can also see this in the trade volume on the exchanges:



This, and the big an small scandals & scams around Bitcoin (exchanges down (Vircurex, Cryptsy, Bter, btc-e), MtGox stopped USD withdrawals, aurumxchange closed, banks (Citi & Chase) no longer processing Bitcoin related transactions, shady ASIC companies (mining with customer hardware), etc.) will slowly kill Bitcoin.

I am expecting BTC's price to come down, perhaps largely so. But I think it is a huge jump to say "slowly kill Bitcoin". Yes, the banking system (corrupt one) wants it gone as they make wars, control people via usery, etc. with their system. But as things get more decentralized we should slowly come out on top. But it will be violent (in a volatile way...)
2104  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 27, 2013, 02:46:54 PM
If you follow the market book / depth:

(Sort of using the bitcoinchannel.com guys' method)

The sales figures have been steadily rising. Today is the highest value since mid may, around 133k
The 100k sales mark in $$$ is the lowest level since mid may. This is bearish.
Sum of sales within a $5 range have vastly overtaken buys within a $5 range.

Basically, most of the indicators look bearish to me. It is not the end of the world bearish, but something to watch closely the next few weeks.

IAS

ps - If todays candle remains red it is a Bearish confirmation after the last two indecisive days. Further it encompasses yesterdays "top" formation body.
2105  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 27, 2013, 02:39:16 PM
there is also a strong divergence in the chaikin money flow



That is much more pronounced than on the chart I posted. Either way, we should have a move to the downside. In my chart it would be a correction but the break below 100 could start a stampede.

2106  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 27, 2013, 01:45:24 PM
You can just see the average size of the sells compared to the buys by watching the tape. (I wish there was a statistic that actually showed this??? Anyone?)


Money Flow Index (MFI) ?

I don't think it takes the size of the sells into account. That is really what I am looking for. But of note, look below at what JUST HAPPENED FOR THE FIRST TIME WITH THE CHALKIN MONEY FLOW. Hmmmmm

Money Flow - Chaikin Money Flow measures buying and selling pressure for a given period of time.
As a volume-weighted version of RSI, the Money Flow Index (MFI) can be interpreted similar to RSI. The big difference is, of course, volume. Because volume is added to the mix, the Money Flow Index will act a little differently than RSI. Theories suggest that volume leads prices.
Overbought and oversold levels can be used to identify unsustainable price extremes. Typically, MFI above 80 is considered overbought and MFI below 20 is considered oversold.
Quotes taken from - http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:money_flow_index_mfi

Chalkin Money Flow - Overbought and oversold levels can be used to identify unsustainable price extremes. Typically, MFI above 80 is considered overbought and MFI below 20 is considered oversold.
Chaikin Money Flow can be used to define a general buying or selling bias simply with positive or negative values. The indicator oscillates above/below the zero line. Generally, buying pressure is stronger when the indicator is positive and selling pressure is stronger when the indicator is negative.

While this zero line cross seems simple enough, the reality is much choppier. Chaikin Money Flow sometimes only briefly crosses the zero line with a move that turns the indicator barely positive or negative. There is no follow through and this zero line cross ends up becoming a whipsaw (bad signal). Chartists can filter these signals with buffers by setting the bullish threshold a little above zero (+.05) and the bearish threshold a little below zero (-.05).
Quotes taken from - http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:chaikin_money_flow

So, what might this mean?

2107  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 27, 2013, 01:27:49 PM
Even with all the uncertainty around MtGox, the Bitcoins are returning and it's getting clearer and clearer that it's not worth 100.

Time to sell.

Also, the daily BB width is the lowest it's been since $30 or so. A massive impulsive moves is before us, and it's most probably down.

Regarding a Bollinger Band Sqeeze: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/030304.asp
Noteable quote:

Quote
When Bollinger Bands® are far apart, volatility is high, and when they are close together, it is low. A squeeze is triggered when volatility reaches a six-month low and is identified when Bollinger Bands® reach a six-month minimum distance apart.

Now, we are not at a 6 months low (BUT, it is only during the recent rise that BB widened. It is at its LOWEST rate since the rise got notable). There seems to be much more selling pressure than buying pressure. (So many of us are betting the squeeze is down). You can just see the average size of the sells compared to the buys by watching the tape. (I wish there was a statistic that actually showed this??? Anyone?)

2108  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 27, 2013, 07:34:33 AM
Atlantis (Silkroad competitor) doing publicity.

http://youtu.be/jFwPjUpv-9M

That's funny.  Grin

Funny one day and true the next.  Grin
That .onion extension wiped my smile away. eheheh
2109  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 27, 2013, 06:41:40 AM
Anyone familiar? Didnt read through whole thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=197175.0

Interesting way to "experiment" with some money.
Wonder if you can vary the parameters.

http://www.coinorama.net/ ratio still dropping (bearish)
2110  Local / Deutsch (German) / Re: Jetzt offiziell: Bitcoins nach einem Jahr Haltezeit steuerfei! on: June 26, 2013, 06:08:06 PM
Yes, that is the hammer!
And your English residents thank you for the work.
Any BTC community/users in the Nürnberg area?
2111  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 26, 2013, 06:07:07 PM
This is actually interesting to watch:http://www.coinorama.net/#
The 2nd indicator below dipped below 1 again, a fairly bearish warning. (Also, anyone watching the mini mini wall being constantly added to at 104.5?)





Yeah, have you read my posts? i'm watching that, its really weird. Wonder what the intent is. 

Yeah, I saw your post. It is nothing, just a simple unload point is my perhaps. When you watch the tape, you often see things like that.
The funny thing is to watch it grow as it is bought into. It is almost like the guy has a program doing that.
The thing about someone wanting the price to stay here is an interesting theory. Or it can just be market demand/supply.
2112  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 26, 2013, 06:04:53 PM
Bitcoins are legal and tax-free in Germany! BUY BUY BUY! Wink

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=243656.0

You only have to hold them a year! Yeah baby, I'm in Germany.  Cheesy
Looks like you may want to live in Germany for a bit, if you have enough the tax savings will pay for your stay.  Wink
2113  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 26, 2013, 05:18:21 PM
This is actually interesting to watch:http://www.coinorama.net/#
The 2nd indicator below dipped below 1 again, a fairly bearish warning. (Also, anyone watching the mini mini wall being constantly added to at 104.5?)





2114  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 26, 2013, 05:14:39 PM
I see an artificial raise to $105 this morning, plus a scary depth for Gox standards:

BTC43.25k to $120, the same amount to $85.
BTC17k to $110, the same amount to $96


Seems like Some groups (silkroad?) just want bitcoin price to fluctuate within a very tight range.  



I just see the price is desperately holding... Pretty crazy that the US guys cannot withdraw their money from Gox and their only choice is to buy coins to move them to another exchange, the latest news about Citibank rejecting wires coming from Gox its pretty outrageous... This motherfuckers, a PRIVATE company, are entitled to decide to who you may send YOUR money, and from who you can receive YOUR money... Honestly, I see a lot of comments and posts about how "doomed" is Gox, but I haven't seen ANY post complaining about those fuckers, I know that if I had an account at Citibank I would close it for good, they don't get to decide what I do with my fucking money.

BTW, Citibank/Citigroup has always been the evil empire, I will leave one link to internal Citigroup documents that leaked for those of you that missed them:

http://our99angrypercent.wordpress.com/2011/11/27/download-citigroup-plutonomy-memos/



I tried to describe this before but your word above "holding" is really perfect. The thing that I observe (and PLEASE someone tell me if I can search for it somewhere) is that the sell sizes are often quite large relative to the buy sizes. Sometimes you know it is the same seller (or buyer) doing the transaction as the orders are exactly down to the same second with no action leading up to it but spread out in smaller sizes.

I also get the impression, like SGExodus said, that someone wants the price at around the current level. Those "rescues" below or around $100 were really strange. Something stunk about them.

So, is there a way to see the average buy or sell size (removing those small bot trades)?
2115  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 26, 2013, 04:31:02 PM
This market feels like a coiling spring.

The coiling is slow...the release will be epic. Yes we could go more down...but fundamentals say we are going higher in the big picture.

Key word being "feels". I am really curious which TA you are using. I have followed a few pretty good TA guys and I have yet to see anyone, NOT ONE, bullish in the current state.
Yes, they all say we can go up from here, I don't disagree with that. But the overall impression is that we are in a correction.
And the coiled spring, well, the sells have been larger than the buys and the sells have been more frequent than the buys, hence our recent movement. I don't see a coiled spring.
We might explode up if buyers come in (though those large sellers would probably sell into any movement.)

I'm even more curious of your fundamentals.
I'm pro Bitcoin (and long term VERY BULLISH) but right now there are no real fundamentals. If you want to compare us to a mid size billion dollar company and use a variance of PE, we would be very very overvalued.
Now, I agree we have intrinsic value (if accepted) - like E Gold. But we are all betting this takes place and hasn't yet taken place. I agree we can hit a very very high cost per BTC, like $10,000 per,
but right now we are in the infant stage and until real fundaments OR real adoption (e.g. - as a store of value - E Gold) or real use (e.g. - Amazon, or more internet sales like pay pal of years ago)
comes into play, we are in between it seems.
2116  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 26, 2013, 10:13:53 AM
Is anybody else seeing a big dump approaching?

Funny you should say that. Things have been "odd" for a few days now. That huge volume for a few minutes yesterday added to the strangeness.
The dumps are larger than the buys - consistently so. No, Bitcoin Barometer is showing the sells outnumbering the buys (things have changed over the last 3 days).

The candlestick so far made today is showing more indecision after yesterdays "manipulated" indecision one. I just get the feeling that some bigger sells are going
to push us through 100 and once we hit mid 90's or so, the sell orders will flood in taking us to 80 ish. From there perhaps we bounce up but then head back down.

Overall, what I am seeing judging by the sizes of the buys is that small time guys are still buying quite regularly, but those dumps of 50-100 coins are making quick smackdowns.
It is like there are big players selling into the small ones.

Of course, the manipulation can be heavy, so the above is from watching "the tape"...
2117  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [12000 GH/s] Slush's Pool (mining.bitcoin.cz); TX FEES + UserDiff; ASIC tested on: June 25, 2013, 07:37:18 PM
Looks like the pool has issues again.... Slush?!?

Yes. I wonder if this has to do with the DDOS attacks from earlier???

Speaking of which, how do we go about having a strong network with DDOS attacks? Is there a thread somewhere regarding this?
2118  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [12000 GH/s] Slush's Pool (mining.bitcoin.cz); TX FEES + UserDiff; ASIC tested on: June 25, 2013, 07:36:14 PM
Looks like the pool has issues again.... Slush?!?

Yes. I wonder if this has to do with the DDOS attacks from earlier???
2119  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 25, 2013, 07:31:04 PM
Regarding earlier today:

http://btcbible.com/rumbles-detected-mt-gox/

Rumbles Detected on Mt. Gox
Published June 24, 2013 | By Dan Roseman
UPDATE: Thanks to Redditor Anenome5 for pointing out that the volume far exceeded 30,000 bitcoins, as originally reported. It was closer to 80,000.

BIG moves were detected on Mt. Gox less than an hour ago. A major surge of volume (around 30,000 80,000 bitcoins) exchanged hands in rapid succession, causing an almost instant price variation ranging between $100 to $109.4. Below is a 15-minute chart depicting the price action action:



I wish Gox had something to say about it, like, "Oh, sorry guys - we accidentally simulated trades to test our engine on the live orderbook... reversing all trades for those effected."

Now that would reaaally screw things up Tongue

Also, 1k wall pulled from 103.76 and market sold.



Good to know about the wall. Thanks for that. I was sitting and working and had the Clark Moody sounds on and caught a lot of red go by...
2120  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 25, 2013, 06:55:58 PM
Regarding earlier today:

http://btcbible.com/rumbles-detected-mt-gox/

Rumbles Detected on Mt. Gox
Published June 24, 2013 | By Dan Roseman
UPDATE: Thanks to Redditor Anenome5 for pointing out that the volume far exceeded 30,000 bitcoins, as originally reported. It was closer to 80,000.

BIG moves were detected on Mt. Gox less than an hour ago. A major surge of volume (around 30,000 80,000 bitcoins) exchanged hands in rapid succession, causing an almost instant price variation ranging between $100 to $109.4. Below is a 15-minute chart depicting the price action action:

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