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1821  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 15, 2013, 10:52:58 AM
Still waiting for the panic selling and sub 50$ like you guys in bear customes promised.
Our promise shall be fulfilled Cheesy

It seems like manipulation failed. Someone wasted 10kBTC, bumped price to 100$ and will loose some when it starts to fall.
I think that we seen 100$ too many times last week and are resistant to it's charms Cheesy

It certainly looks like that $500,000 buy had little effect. The resistance is building. The longer we stay here the more it may build. I say that as these last large buys had no rally behind them, price actually fell down and that is telling. But these guys might have very very deep pockets. Who knows, perhaps it's the FED as Manipulation is a part of their job...
1822  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 15, 2013, 09:19:41 AM
Buy large amount..... wait.... buy more... wait...
At least there is some excitement.

It just doesn't seem like people are piling on with buys outside the large buyer.

And a sell of 165!   Tongue
1823  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 15, 2013, 09:12:38 AM
No, we will escape when they lose patience and start to buy in.

You forgot the other option, which is holders get scared and start to sell out.

scared of what? Long term investment is bullish still, there is no reason to be scared.

On my mind are those big buyers that brought us to this level. They played the indicators perfectly and now those indicators (RSI for example, Candles) are showing a reversal. Are the bids piled enough for them to start selling?

It is up to them if we go down. If they don't come in and dump, I have a feeling small guys will bring things back up.
That said, the correction is not over and capitulation never happened. Feels like we are between a rock and a hard place.
Be careful...

Ahhhh, they'rrrrrrrrre baaaaaaaaack...

yes, but it's very, very impulsive - the panic will be? or back to 95-96 and fluent up after this jump?


So far, "crickets" is the response. I'm wondering why they did the large buy below resistance and for an amount not to take us above it? They have big pockets, perhaps more is to come and they are just seeing the response.

I have a strong feeling, no matter how much we do run, that these guys want the bids to pile up higher so they can then do a large market order sell. Then repeat process at bottom.
1824  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 15, 2013, 09:06:14 AM
No, we will escape when they lose patience and start to buy in.

You forgot the other option, which is holders get scared and start to sell out.

scared of what? Long term investment is bullish still, there is no reason to be scared.

On my mind are those big buyers that brought us to this level. They played the indicators perfectly and now those indicators (RSI for example, Candles) are showing a reversal. Are the bids piled enough for them to start selling?

It is up to them if we go down. If they don't come in and dump, I have a feeling small guys will bring things back up.
That said, the correction is not over and capitulation never happened. Feels like we are between a rock and a hard place.
Be careful...

Ahhhh, they'rrrrrrrrre baaaaaaaaack...
1825  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 15, 2013, 08:54:00 AM
No, we will escape when they lose patience and start to buy in.

You forgot the other option, which is holders get scared and start to sell out.

scared of what? Long term investment is bullish still, there is no reason to be scared.

On my mind are those big buyers that brought us to this level. They played the indicators perfectly and now those indicators (RSI for example, Candles) are showing a reversal. Are the bids piled enough for them to start selling?

It is up to them if we go down. If they don't come in and dump, I have a feeling small guys will bring things back up.
That said, the correction is not over and capitulation never happened. Feels like we are between a rock and a hard place.
Be careful...
1826  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 14, 2013, 07:25:20 PM
I like my support/resistance lines on the body of the candles, not wicks. We are sitting below 2 resistance lines if that is the case. Interesting to think we might have broken out of a descending triangle, but down and now come back up to meet it. Updated - And look at the negative volume divergences (2) with an up price. That had been a good reversal indicator, but not lately. Also, topping out on RSI.



That's an interesting chart. $100 is definitely a key battle ground and it has psychological meaning.

The last bear run broke $100 after the first two tests (May and June) held. Previous support levels often become new levels of resistance.

Compound with the highs getting gradually lower (about 155, 135, 115), with this final high barely breaking $100 and it paints an interesting picture.

Unless something big happens in the coming week to vault us cleanly over $100, I suspect breaching $100 again for any extended period will be unlikely for quite some time.

Yeah, $100 is a really key level and as you said, for more than one reason. We have had lower highs and lower lows since April/May and if we reverse this up movement below 110, then we will again have a lower high, and what about that lower low following?

People that were waiting below (me included) were a bit taken back by the Huge buyer that stopped the fall and basically walked BTC up to where it is now (at least in large part). But, as many TA guys will say, "market manipulation" only delays the inevitable (unless of course some huge great news comes...
1827  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 14, 2013, 01:06:34 PM
I am still trying to figure out what the heck happened on July 5-6 that would cause this so called 'trend reversal'.  I have come up with bubkis as it seems so arbitrary.  I would have expected it to touch closer to 50s first and then slowly increase, not a shot right to 100. WTF man WTF

Well, a lot of us saw a bounce there (key tech support and also was very oversold) but then some HUGE buyers came in and decided to take it higher. Still not a whole lot of bids piling up so I don't think they want to dump yet...
1828  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 14, 2013, 11:37:33 AM
I like my support/resistance lines on the body of the candles, not wicks. We are sitting below 2 resistance lines if that is the case. Interesting to think we might have broken out of a descending triangle, but down and now come back up to meet it.



Why use the body instead of the wick? The body just represents an arbitrary cutoff period, it's no more indicative of sentiment than any price along the wick.

Note the updated chart with the volume/price negative divergence. Was bearish for BTC until recently.

I disagree and know I'm in the minority, but when you have a long wick and a close, imo it shows that the price was pushed down to the body. To me that is significant. Yes, on the open it generally is just the prior days close (unless you have a gap up/down). The wick "just" shows the max or min movement but the body can (and often does) show an important price point (the close). Candlestick analysis in large part is about the bodies. e.g. - Small bodies and long wicks showing doji's (indecision, perhaps a reversal). It is often a toss up and even with great analysis, we are often wrong.

All in all, it is really not rocket science. But looking at BTC's candle chart, the bodies tell us tons of information as do the wicks and I'm not so sure we can say one is right and the other is wrong. Just staring at a price history one can make arguments for both.

1829  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 14, 2013, 11:16:33 AM
I like my support/resistance lines on the body of the candles, not wicks. We are sitting below 2 resistance lines if that is the case. Interesting to think we might have broken out of a descending triangle, but down and now come back up to meet it. Updated - And look at the negative volume divergences (2) with an up price. That had been a good reversal indicator, but not lately. Also, topping out on RSI.

1830  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 14, 2013, 10:56:32 AM
And true, if we are expecting a dump, maybe it won't happen. Really, it is a crap shoot, even when you "know" what you are talking about.

Do you feel lucky, punk ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xjr2hnOHiM



All the more special considering the times we live in and that... I loved them Vigilante films as a kid (But Brooklyn will do that to a guy...)

This one was my favorite "punk": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4jZ7rtWnvs

I predict some Banker Vigilante films on the horizon, and BTC is the Vigilante...
1831  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 14, 2013, 09:55:25 AM
4 days and, 75 to 104.
Bull trap , Reversal or Bubble-Bubble. Playing wait and watch.


Prediction: $65 within 14 days.
Although it might sound absurd, i'm sticking with it.

It is a very violent move up and one can argue we broke through resistance. But, the indicators are all overbought, I'd hate to enter now, especially being under 100. (Even 110 ish)
Also, the very large buyers that got us here might want to unload some. As they go, so do we. It all depends on the big money but sooner or later we have to finish the correction (I would think.)

I noticed they are doing exactly the opposite people here think. Nobody was expecting that rise in the price last week. Now everybody expecting a dump but it wont happen. When you start to feel comfortably and buy back at $140 then they will dump.

Quite often that is true. But those few who spent millions causing the price to rise last week did so with the technical indicators on their side. That is the part that is really tough...
And true, if we are expecting a dump, maybe it won't happen. Really, it is a crap shoot, even when you "know" what you are talking about.
1832  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 14, 2013, 09:29:40 AM


Bearish?

Camoooon... I should just start to trade with EMAs so I could go to outside to the sun and could smoke weed all day...

The price has pretty much gone up with the volume on the daily, I don't see cause for concern with any divergences there.
It has been an extremely good indicator, except for the last one on the move up. (July 10-11 but it was a very small move up.)
1833  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 14, 2013, 09:24:12 AM
4 days and, 75 to 104.
Bull trap , Reversal or Bubble-Bubble. Playing wait and watch.


Prediction: $65 within 14 days.
Although it might sound absurd, i'm sticking with it.

It is a very violent move up and one can argue we broke through resistance. But, the indicators are all overbought, I'd hate to enter now, especially being under 100. (Even 110 ish)
Also, the very large buyers that got us here might want to unload some. As they go, so do we. It all depends on the big money but sooner or later we have to finish the correction (I would think.)
1834  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 13, 2013, 09:27:39 PM
Please someone correct me if i'm wrong, i'm still learning, but i see a bearish wedge almost to conclude.
Should we be testing $80's soon? What do you think?  Smiley
I think we might see $70 within 48 hours.

I do not want to predict accurately whether 80 or 70 and at what time  Wink

But some indicators suggest that the market is overbought after the rapid boom from 69 to 94 (a peak 104).



I assume that the 104 was the top of this wave will soon see low. (it may not be in 48 hours Wink )






What are you seeing as the max down movement? Range?
1835  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 13, 2013, 09:24:09 PM
Abandon - What your chart needs is more lines, I mean Cowbells...



But seriously, looks like it is rolling over. I remember that at $130.  Cry
1836  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 13, 2013, 09:22:15 PM
It might be beneficial to look at the chart the other way around:



Yes, it is called an engulfing Vagina. Be very very careful going long guys...

1837  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 13, 2013, 08:13:37 PM
What do the charts tell you and what does a general assessment of the market psychology tell you IAS?

Hold me to this but first I must come clean (as all of us should).

I am in fiat, so my bias is bear (short to mid term bear). Long term is Über Bullish.

Trying to be as neutral as possible, what I see happening is a few HUGE players driving the price up and waiting for bids to fill so they can profit and let the correction continue.
I don't think we can argue the huge players involved. Remove them and we are not where we are. Is that wrong to say? They are a part of the market in a sense, no? Perhaps I am wrong.

psychologically - Same old, the bears see bearish charts, they search for them and find them. The bulls do likewise. (I see both, though the short/mid term still seems bearish, chart wise). I am really trying to be neutral but that is almost a mutually exclusive thing in general, especially when you believe in BTC as I do. Caught between a rock and a hard place. I understand to a point the dire situation of the global monetary situation. But I also know the miracle of a temporary bridge they have been able to sustain and it is more than I imagined. "Just print more".  For example, do you know the Federal Reserve loaned the EU 2.3 + trillion last year? Hardly anyone knows that and fewer know that is illegal, but they did it via overnight swaps. Avoiding laws, much like their gold "leasing" did. So, I am trying to increase my BTC position, all the while knowing the global financial situation is like a rope bridge across a burning valley and the fire is starting to touch... ouch. I think that is fairly accurate. And some of the players benefit from the bridge burning, go figure.

Hope that wasn't too long. But we (globally) are in a mess that most have no clue about. And here we are in BTC trying to save the few pennies the "elite" have allowed us to have. Dire, no. Freedom is coming, but the in between is going to be interesting. Long story short, I'm not sure it matters, but it certainly is a nice distraction.  Grin

IAS
1838  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 13, 2013, 07:26:46 PM
It's called false breakout. It seems the bears got what the bulls where so desperately hoping for 2 weeks ago.

I call it "phase of consolidation after +55 % change of value".. Tongue

A valid point. But what about:
the downtrend line not being violated.
the back to back candle reversal patterns?

I'm not saying I know, but it certainly is interesting...
1839  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: BitCoin mining difficulty forecast spreadsheet I made on Google Docs. on: July 13, 2013, 07:02:30 PM
So, what do you guys think about the October 13' prediction, really way over 100 million? That means I most probably shouldn't buy a Bitfury 25Gh for 1240 Euro. Be much much better to just buy BTC's with the money, especially if they come down in price.
100 million in October is very likely.
I also put together a spreadsheet, very optimistic one. That 25Gh miner will mine maybe 20btc first year, then another 5btc. With 1240€ you can buy 17btc @70€. 20 if the price is @60€.


Thanks a lot for that chart. I'm sure others appreciate it.

If it is that close I just can't imagine taking a chance. Though it would feel great to have coins I mine in a paper wallet till I'm old.   Cheesy
Being able to have coins now and trade in and out at opportune times is just a better gamble.

Again, I don't understand why the cost is the same for October considering their discount with the 400Gh machine. Would be nice to discount it.
Would also be nice to not see August units for sale on Ebay that weren't even paid for yet.  Angry
1840  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 13, 2013, 06:34:53 PM
Well yes, it has but it still appears we haven't broken (closed above) the downtrend.

Bitstamp at least broke it, though not sustainable till now. Smiley



Nah, I wouldn't call that breaking it. I'm looking for where it closes and I think that is pretty accepted. Even then, I'd look for 3 days of that unless it is taking off.
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