I really think this chart is key. Lower highs and lower lows have not really been broken since the April 24th rise. (There is one slight cross from the beginning of May and early June, but just a few dollars off.) The lower highs have thus far been consistently lower, just eying it around $10 each time. I'd say the $97 - $100 area is key. If we can rally above that then we have broken the lower high downtrend. But as of now and as long as we stay below around the $100 area (technically our last lower high was around $110) we are still in a downtrend. What do you TA guys think of the lower high and lower low consistency in your experience? I understand BTC is a different animal.  |
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On the 15 minute chart it looks like things are breaking down (or a double, tripple bottom) - 85 is key it seems. Even the 1 and 4 hour chart are dipping a bit. Interesting at this level:  |
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Looks like a flag forming. Don't know which way it will break.... originally thought up to 96 after another oscillation down, but this rally has me nervous. Didn't reach my target but happy to take profits at 89. All out, now dump please.  Depends on the chart. The daily chart looks to be topping or reversing. The one and four hour chart looks to be some type of flag continuation pattern, meaning up... IAS |
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Yesterday taught me just *how* pathetic my attempts at reading the Bitcoin market are, and *how* irrelevant both TA & common sense are to this market. Trying a new strategy today. Got me some black candles burning on both sides of the monitor, crayons for drawing pentagrams & magikal symbolz, got The Lord's Prayer queued up to loop backwards in Pro Tools. As soon as my cat learns to arch his back & hiss at the chart, i'll be set for a new day of trading  Every few posts I mention that when doing TA with BTC anything is possible. Don't feel bad. Had that huge buyer not come this rally would have been much shorter and not as high. Really dangerous just using TA as their are some big pocketed guys here. That said, they seem to use the entry/exit points we are following, but the violence of the moves are magnified. I stayed out on this bounce up as I didn't want to chance a big seller dumping at 68 ish... (Bad call on my part) |
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I'll put my bids at 66-68 and go to smoke some weed. I have just 25% of my assets on coins now so I need some relaxation.
Are you in Germany by any chance? |
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Goddamnit I go to the pub and all hell breaks loose. I'm not buying until 266
LOL!  |
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Feel free to taunt me with this one, but on the hourly, looks like a top:  |
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Oh come on, 4 out of 5 ain't bad. Plus I put a "?"  I was serious, but slightly wrong, I guess... It went little up, but now it's going a bit down. Nice to watch and wonder where it goes... To be honest, since about 75 I've been thinking "Why didn't I buy back in at 68?" But, even then I didn't think we'd cross 80 so easily. But, when you have people buying $1,000,000 worth of BTC a pop in a small market, it can kill good TA How do you measure the retracement? Anything online? |
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Oh come on, 4 out of 5 ain't bad. Plus I put a "?" |
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And now the FUD for bears... Will it really go down? Perhaps it was the last chance to get cheap coins... You know that everyone (that matters, money wise) was waiting for cheap coinz. Now your handle is making sense to me... |
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I'm watching the $85 level or so, that is the key point to this rally. And even if we break it I am still very leery about this "rally".
Sure, a few more people come in and buy up 6000 coins we will go up. But there are a whole lot of guys looking to sell their lot and
those bids are going to be placed and fill up behind us very shortly. Have to see if a big giant sell order comes around the 85 or so level.
IAS
A giant sell had its chance many times at 76-77. Only a large one came, and no one followed. Megabull's walls are gone [until 78], so if they wanted top dollar, they'd have sold into the 80 wall. Yeah, it is certainly manipulation. Where do you see them wanting to take us? My guess is just a little higher before a dump to break many a heart. Hell, what do I know. I've been sitting on the sidelines in USD since we were at 130.  Been to chicken to re-enter since. Regardless, this guy reminds me a lot of the 95-110 market order. Temporarily confused the market... then.. we fell. Not that it will happen again, necessarily. I got out at the next bump, just below 110. I was very close to exiting at 130 but I was a bit blind still then. Now I still see the short to mid term trend as down but this is a small market so I'm not locked in to my "beliefs". No matter how you play it there is some big money in a very small market, so any of us can get burned. At least we are sitting above and looking for an entry. I hope it stays that way for a while, as I'd hate to be looking up... Yes, that market order (as this one) just has manipulation written on it, but in a sense the buyer is supporting themselves by being a bit "careless". But thus far, no rally has ensued. We'll see how it pans out though as BTC has these moments of silence, tick tock tick tock... |
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Someone thinks that the real crash coming now ?
I think we are getting to a critical level, resistance wise. Mid to upper 80's. If we can get through that, then things get interesting more interesting. |
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this is way better than tv
You have to turn the sound on (Clark moody or http://trading.i286.org/) - Really adds to the excitement, especially the former imo. Just set the "beep" level to about 10... |
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I'm watching the $85 level or so, that is the key point to this rally. And even if we break it I am still very leery about this "rally".
Sure, a few more people come in and buy up 6000 coins we will go up. But there are a whole lot of guys looking to sell their lot and
those bids are going to be placed and fill up behind us very shortly. Have to see if a big giant sell order comes around the 85 or so level.
IAS
A giant sell had its chance many times at 76-77. Only a large one came, and no one followed. Megabull's walls are gone [until 78], so if they wanted top dollar, they'd have sold into the 80 wall. Yeah, it is certainly manipulation. Where do you see them wanting to take us? My guess is just a little higher before a dump to break many a heart. |
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I'm watching the $85 89 (was eyeing it) level or so, that is the key point to this rally. And even if we break it I am still very leery about this "rally".
Sure, a few more people come in and buy up 6000 coins we will go up. But there are a whole lot of guys looking to sell their lot and
those bids are going to be placed and fill up behind us very shortly. Have to see if a big giant sell order comes around the 85 or so level.
IAS
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hoping for a dip to buy back in but for now i'm on the sidelines because i've eroded too much of my profit, my risk appetite is much much lower
The opportunity is under 80..it's vanishing quickly. Read the news, not the boards What news? the german news maybe? Not sure how big: http://www.bitcoin-journal.de/bitcoin-de-und-fidor-bank-ag-vereinbaren-weitgehende-partnerschaft/bitcoin.de announced their banking partner (fidor bank) and will offer insured SEPA account to be used for live trading. EDIT: but that's not really news. At least we won't have the German version of the mtgox-dwolla drama. Not news, you said it. I'd say its "not bad news" Oh, it's maybe no great news for you. For me it is. Down here in germany most of us don't sleep well while our money rests on some place whitout an "Einlagensicherung". How many real banks are officially involved in Bitcoin? In germany I don't know any other. Fidor will make it easier, to get bitcoins. You can ask them, they help. And they don't help maybe in five years, like Kipochi, not in six monthe, like the winkle-bros, they help tomorrow or at least in some weeks. For short: Bitcoin in germany has an update. For me its the first real good news, since I bought my2 BTC one month ago  I'm in Germany as well and do worry a bit about the future of Bitstamps bank in Slovania. I think they are fine for the rest of the year but who knows about the future. I haven't traded on bitcoin.de in a while as it takes so long transferring money to another persons account, waiting for the verification, etc. Also been taken advantage of their 2X. Do you know when we can use the Bitcoin.de new banking partnership? They hopefully have made changes to their account already to allow for easy integration. |
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Someone just bought a whole lot o BTC's!
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With the difficulty and hashing rising by the day, what is going to happen when the small guys can no longer compete? (I have a 5Gh BFL on order, but things have slowed down again and I'll be lucky to see it this year.) 5 and 10 GH mining rigs have what, 6-8 months of life left in them? It is the much bigger rigs, if you can get one, where the profitability is at. The fun part seems to be leaving.
And this almost exponentially difficult level really cuts out the small players (except for group buys and such, but that still is a taking the mining out of the home).
This will probably mean we essentially have a fairly centralized network, which is against what BTC represents.
Will the network reach a max level and then just near halt or barely grow then?
Something about this just doesn't feel right. Agree with lunarboy, looks like a near fatal flaw and it is exponentially sneaking up on us!
Logical predictions about the effect of all this?
IAS
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Thanks Dalib, really interesting and I understand now (I do well with pictures) Gives me something to keep an eye on... |
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I sort of follow you but I hadn't been using short term periods like that. This is a bit over my head actually  How is the period (short or long) related to the effect on sell offs? (or buys) I thought it didn't matter, it was all in the order book (for the most part). |
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