For sure, I would not upgrade to a monarch until I got gen 1 units in my hands.
But some people are in a real dilemma. Like say you're a feb-aug 2013 mini rig or singles guy.
Get a refund.  They're still stuck on June last year and barely moving so you're looking at march before you get your gear.
Get a refund.  So basically anyone who ordered a mini rig or a single this year thinks rayed be better off then swapping their gen one for gen 2 and nearly tripling their hash power and they'd still end up getting their gen 2 at the same time if not sooner.
That is why they should get a refund.  Of course, the risk is that BFL is gonna do the same thing they've done all this time and keep moving the time-line out until June 2014 hits. That would be a huge mistake and if that happens I think they're gonna fold cause there's sure to be lawsuits at that point and at least 2-4 real competitors shipping real gen 2 ASICS.
If you have ordered from ButterFly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules). First ask ButterFly Labs for a refund, they will probably say no but you might get lucky. If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. Multiple customers have already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days. If you ordered via Bitcoin or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC and they will advocate for you with ButterFly Labs to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises. You can also do a paper filing with the DA here: http://da.jocogov.org/complaint-formsThere are also several threads on how to get a refund from ButterFly Labs, here are two: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0 |
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Josh appears and here we go...  You guys never stop...to fail hard...you really look like this hamster ! That is a mirror that you, bcp19, Red_Wolf2, and Inaba are looking at.  Ask your overseer at BFL: Now that BFL got a fresh infusion of cash, can we expect more mini-rigs to ship? Or are those customers just perma-screwed? |
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Since they did NOT go out of business, a lot of people are going to get what they paid for albeit later than expected. Every person that paid for a $30,000 mini will get that mini as long as the company is not brought to it's knees by detractors trying to shut them down. I don't know about you, but I'd be pretty damn happy getting a $30,000 unit a bit late VS paying $1,000,000 to ASICMiner for less hash and absolutely NO chance to get my money back.
There you go. YOU feel screwed, now let's take down the company and screw EVERYONE. Sorry, but THAT is the definition of childish in my book.
You are making assumptions again. If BFL is a Ponzi and has spent most of the pre-order money already, then they just got a fresh infusion of funds from the monarch photoshop. They could use these funds in a responsible manner and use them to build out the rest of the pre-order investor's merchandise. But then what would they spend on developing monarch? Also, why would you expect a Ponzi scheme to suddenly act responsibly. If they are not a Ponzi, then they could afford to refund everyone and mine themselves with the equipment. You assume that one day the music won't stop. Even Bernie Madoff who ran a Ponzi scheme for 20 years had to stop dancing eventually. The longer the music plays, the more money is eventually lost. That is why you put a stop to shady operations instead of letting them fester. PSA:
If you have ordered from ButterFly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules).
First ask ButterFly Labs for a refund, they will probably say no but you might get lucky.
If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. Multiple customers have already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days.
If you ordered via Bitcoin or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC and they will advocate for you with ButterFly Labs to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises.
You can also do a paper filing with the DA here: http://da.jocogov.org/complaint-forms
There are also several threads on how to get a refund from ButterFly Labs, here are two:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0
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600GH= @ 4000TH-network-diff @ 525536000 Coins Dollars per Day ฿0.57 $68.65 per Week ฿4.02 $480.57 per Month ฿17.45 $2,087.05 Not subtracting Electric............. We all have this to look forward too  4PH/S I think is a low estimate of what the network will hit next year. More like 20 maybe. Petahashes are the new Terrahashes  |
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You don't have to upgrade to a monarch. You can get a full refund from BFL! If you have ordered from ButterFly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules). First ask ButterFly Labs for a refund, they will probably say no but you might get lucky. If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. Multiple customers have already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days. If you ordered via Bitcoin or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC and they will advocate for you with ButterFly Labs to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises. You can also do a paper filing with the DA here: http://da.jocogov.org/complaint-formsThere are also several threads on how to get a refund from ButterFly Labs, here are two: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0 |
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I think the folks here that don't like the BFL ads should boycott these forums.
By supporting these forums, BFL is supporting our ability to reach thousands of readers with this message: If you have ordered from ButterFly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules). First ask ButterFly Labs for a refund, they will probably say no but you might get lucky. If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. Multiple customers have already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days. If you ordered via Bitcoin or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC and they will advocate for you with ButterFly Labs to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises. You can also do a paper filing with the DA here: http://da.jocogov.org/complaint-formsThere are also several threads on how to get a refund from ButterFly Labs, here are two: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0 |
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Oh yeah, and with 20/20 hindsight we all knew the bitcoin price was going to go to $250+... Suuuure...
No. Incorrect. This is not about exchange rates after you bought your mined BTC. You traded 26 BTC for 8 BTC. There is no single exchange rate that will make 8 BTC be worth more than 26 BTC. Truth is, people took some risks, and in their opinion it didn't pay off. As much as it seems to be the thing to blame others for mistakes made by people, you really do need to face up to the fact that it was always a risk to do business with BFL.
Yes. Doing business with BFL is very risky. They are shady. They tell you when you will have your product, and when that day comes they fail to deliver. For time sensitive deliveries (like mining equipment) that is very destructive to value. I did because the risk didn't bother me, in the end it will likely pay off for me.
You traded 26 BTC for 8 BTC. This makes you happy. Some people get their kicks being tortured and beaten. Who am I to judge. But when you try to convince others to buy BFL to justify your own failures, that is where I will judge. Again we get back to the paying with bitcoin stuff. That was my decision, and at the time I actually figured there was a good chance bitcoin would go back to the ~$3 range (the price rise already looked like a bubble then). I took that risk, it didn't pay off, but that is life. If I had invested real money rather than gpu time I would only be concerned with ROI on the cash I put in, namely what bitcoin is worth in FIAT today. Now if the price of bitcoin had remained steady but the difficulty had climbed as high as it has, then there would be reason to be pissed off.
Paying with Bitcoin or GBP or EUR or USD or RUS or RMB or HKD doesn't matter. What matters is how much value in Bitcoin you gave away in order to get the Bitcoin from BFL. You gave away 26 Bitcoin worth of value in order to get 8 Bitcoin (maybe less) worth of mining. That is always a bad deal. You will always do better by not making that trade. At the time you made the purchase, BFL promised you that you would get your product in time to make your 26 BTC back and then some. With the 20/20 hindsight, you may as well say we all got ripped off for not mining more with GPUs when bitcoin first started up, or when OpenCL based mining was developed. It is silly to work on this basis, and the only reason you do so is because you WANT people to feel ripped off, in order to stoke and stroke your ego more. Guess it makes you feel righteous and that you matter in this world a bit?
Is it silly to examine the result of a trade after the fact? Yes, we have 20/20 hindsight and with that hindsight we can now see that BFL ripped you off. Is the reason you blind yourself is because of pride? We have 20/20 hindsight now that they have finally delivered to you (some people we still don't know how badly they have been scammed). We can see that your trade with BFL was a bad one. What is even worse is that with 20/20 hindsight you cannot see it because of willful blindness. You gave BFL 26 BTC and they promised to give you back far more BTC in the form of delivering you the hashing power to mine it in Oct 2012. They did not do that. They gave you barely enough mining to get back 8 BTC in Aug 2013. The principal value in mining equipment is in the hashing power and the time you receive it. Your hashing power ordered was 10GH/s, your time to receive was Oct 2012. BFL failed to deliver the value they promised you. |
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Red wolf,
How do you think people who ordered after the first month feel? Have you no compassion for the position the company forced them into?
I ordered in November 2012. Sure I have compassion, at least until they start screaming like a little kid on public transport because they thought they were going to get a guaranteed ROI on something (hint, they only ever purchased hardware with a given hash rate, not a guarantee on ROI) Tell ya what Red_Wolf_2...give me $30,000 & I'll turn it into $50,000...............but first you have to wait a year & a half to get ANY returns on it,I guess you'd go for that Oh & NO REFUNDS!!!!!!!!!  I would just ask him to give you 26 BTC and you will give him back 8 BTC in a year's time. He seems to like that trade. Just put a QTY box and hope for double digits! |
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I see the anti-bfl circlejerk is in full swing again.
bcp19: heres some thoughts regarding the people here - you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink
Oh how false the first statement is and how true the second. Some people just don't have the math to see. I fully expect that statement to be turned around on non anti-bfl people. You'll say we are being scammed and just can't see it. Well my two jalapenos are close to 30% ROI already based on USD prices, so I really can't complain...
Oh how true the first statement is, and the second for that matter. The third is true, you can't complain because you haven't the wits to see that you were scammed. Just like people who "invest" $100 in a "gold" coin that has $10 of gold in it, you paid 26 BTC for a device that will only mine you 8 BTC. Of course, you were promised a lot more than that. You were promised a device that would return 3 to 4 times that in BTC and then some. But the delays nibbled away at your returns... Sure, the price of gold may rise 10 fold and bail out the gold coin "investor", but that doesn't change the fact that they got ripped off. If BFL delivered like they said they would, you would have mined your 26 BTC back and then some. Sadly it turns out that you paid $42 per BTC when the price was only $12. You'll never earn back your 26 BTC and thus will never have a positive ROI. BFL offered a hashrate to be delivered within a certain time, yet you still pretend the time part doesn't matter. But it does. That is what screwed you. |
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Most people are likely just so pissed over 'potential lost profits' that they just want to lash out.
I get the feeling that you have lost so much money in so many scams that you think it is just par for the course. Getting ripped off and lied to may be your lot in life, but it doesn't have to be that way for other people. You should take up sports gambling so you stop feeding the scammers. |
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If you have ordered from ButterFly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules). First ask ButterFly Labs for a refund, they will probably say no but you might get lucky. If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. Multiple customers have already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days. If you ordered via Bitcoin or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC and they will advocate for you with ButterFly Labs to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises. You can also do a paper filing with the DA here: http://da.jocogov.org/complaint-formsThere are also several threads on how to get a refund from ButterFly Labs, here are two: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0 |
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What why is Josh not betting? Nasser probably pulled his credit line after he lost 2000 BTC and didn't pay. |
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This is what people who can't do math type when they run out of arguments. Instead of equations, we get "forest forest forest"... Hmm, it appears you cannot see the forest for the trees. I'm sorry dude, the forest is RIGHT THERE. I cannot help it if all you see is trees.
That's still a forest. I'm sorry if you cannot wrap your head around it, your semantics do not change the fact that it is a forest.
Yet again, you see those trees? THAT is a forest! Your refusal to see that doesn't change it.
Forest. Forest. Forest. Forest. Forest. Forest. Forest.
Forest. Many trees = forest. Forest. Forest. Forest.
Still semantics and still a forest.
100 million orders is way out of the ballpark. There are only like 50,000 entities that mine bitcoin. That would be about 2000 orders per mining entity. They just changed their order number scheme part way though. If you look at the reported order list you can see where it changed. Looks like there is overlap on either side of the date too... so they did a bad job of the cut over. Maybe multiple systems handling orders and they got updated at different times.
Please don't say that! K9 says that can't possibly be true!!! You really don't want him against you! Actually, that is precisely what I said was true. The order books overlapped. Lack of reading comprehension pervades the posts of the BFL fan-bois. Coincidence? I think not. 1 order number != 1 order. Live it, learn it. How to identify a die hard BFL fan-boi? 1) knows next to nothing about how bitcoin mining works 2) lacks basic math skills 3) poor reading comprehension 4) high degree of financial illiteracy 5) no understanding of software or algorithms 6) no understanding of statistics (may understand what an average is) and the PSA for those afflicted with BFL orders: If you have ordered from ButterFly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules). First ask ButterFly Labs for a refund, they will probably say no but you might get lucky. If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. Multiple customers have already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days. If you ordered via Bitcoin or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC and they will advocate for you with ButterFly Labs to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises. You can also do a paper filing with the DA here: http://da.jocogov.org/complaint-formsThere are also several threads on how to get a refund from ButterFly Labs, here are two: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0 |
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Yet again, you refuse to read and simply act the king of trolls and nitpick things you do not understand to death.
I call it basic math, you call it nitpicking. Sorry, 2+2 != 5 is not nitpicking, even though you were just off by one. While there are some bad data points in the matrix, the overall premise still holds true. You seem to expect me to go through and vet 4951 entries to determine if every single one of the is correct? Impossible. I'd have to have BFL's order book in hand to do such a thing. We are still talking about an ESTIMATE. You are talking absolute accuracy. The two do not mesh.
It is fairly simple to screen out duplicate order numbers and even more simple to sort them and screen out obviously false order numbers. Even these simple steps were not taken. Your fallacious assertation that 100070471 is 100 million orders highlights your ignorance. That is only order number 70471.
No. It is order number 100070471. It might be the 70,471st order taken, but you have no evidence to support that claim. While the lower numbered orders were ONLY the order number, somewhere around mid February it appears the 1000 prefix was added. It really is too bad you cannot understand the simple logic behind that. Some people seeing the lower numbers did not include the 1000 and others faithfully typed in the full order number.
Supposition on your part how people are representing their order numbers. Furthermore, there are roughly 150 orders in a row that have the 1000 prefix, but are below 100016000. There are 250 orders that do not have the prefix but do have orders above 16000. These are grouped by date and do not overlap. That seems to blow your guesswork out of the water. I think you must have read somewhere on the internet about this, instead of looking at the data for yourself. Now, HOW you can say 2 out of 3 DEVICES ordered might be a Jalapeno, I really do not understand. There are 7668 devices for 4951 orders!!!!
Those two statements have nothing to do with each other. You care about how many devices are Jalapenos, not how many orders have Jalapenos in them. After all, there could be 1 order for 3900 Jalapenos and the average might still hold. By using the average as I stated, that was using as given that each Jalapeno order was for 1 unit. Who cares if 64 were ordered on 1 actual order? if 2 out of every 3 orders contained a Jalapeno, the overall total would equal virtually the same thing! WE ARE STILL ESTIMATING HERE!
Nope. Each Jalapeno order was NOT for just one unit. Quite the opposite actually. So you cannot extrapolate number of orders to number of Jalapenos because you do not understand the distribution of Jalapenos across orders. Worse, you then added a huge number of "dark mini-rig" orders to make your 7PH/s claim add up. What does it matter that I am using 1 order = 1 unit if the overall figures total the same in the end? Why is simplification of the process so bad a thing to do? Your need to pick things apart blinds you to the whole picture being displayed. Who cares if you can stand 1 inch from a computer generated picture and see black dots and red dots and yellow dots? What matters is when you step back and take it in as a whole it becomes a picture.
You simplified with bad assumptions and came up with an obviously incorrect number. Worse, you have been trying to defend it here and only made yourself look worse. If you thought BFL was going to ship 7PH/s and had already shipped 500TH/s, that might explain your undying support of them. Perhaps you can serve as an example to people out there that if they fail at math, they are liable to get fleeced by BFL. I doubt you have the math skills to ever understand your mistake. And If you have ordered from ButterFly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules). First ask ButterFly Labs for a refund, they will probably say no but you might get lucky. If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. Multiple customers have already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days. If you ordered via Bitcoin or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC and they will advocate for you with ButterFly Labs to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises. You can also do a paper filing with the DA here: http://da.jocogov.org/complaint-formsThere are also several threads on how to get a refund from ButterFly Labs, here are two: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0 |
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After all the BFL threads, and people still order from them...
Unbelievable.
^This |
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[You mean like this order number 234234?
4860 2013/07/10 234234 No 1 2 3 4 asdf
or this order?
1073 2012/11/23 100057492 No 2 0 0 15 Blacksheep
Name: BlackSheep
Posts: 9
Activity: 9
Position: Jr. Member
Date Registered: April 06, 2013, 08:28:04 PM
Last Active: May 14, 2013, 11:44:29 PM
2/3rds Jalapenos? 3575 Jalapenos ordered, 4951 orders total. That is 72.2% of orders have a Jalapeno if nobody ordered more than one.
Sadly, there are orders for 5,8,10,12,16,25,40,64, & dozens for 2 or 3. That blows your 2/3rds estimate out of the water.
You made the same mistake with your 5/9ths as Singles. More orders of singles were for multiple units than not. Far fewer than 1 in 27 orders had a mini-rig, and again many were for multiple units.
This is not the guesstimate of someone who attended MIT.
Have you never done anything with probability and statistics? if you pulll X samples out of a batch of Y and use the information from them, you can garner a working data point to extrapolate what the total would hold. We have 4951 orders and 3575 Jalapenos, yes. As you point out, this is 72%, but using 2 of 3 is a lot easier than using 18 of 25 to the average person. Now IF on AVERAGE 2 of every 3 orders is a Jalapeno, and you are 12,300 order numbers into the book, that means out of 12,300 that you should have ~8,200 Jalapenos. Nope. 2 out of 3 devices ordered might be a Jalapeno. But 2 out of 3 orders do not consist of orders of Jalapenos. You are mixing devices in absolute numbers with orders of devices (which can consist of multiple devices in multiple families). Also, order number 12000 does not equate to 12,000 orders. If that were true, then it would mean because there is an order number 100070471 in that data set that there are 100,070,471 orders from BFL. I think we can safely rule that out. This is how statistics work. On that day there had been ~6400 order numbers of LS. 1/4 of this is ~1600LS. 900 singles order numbers gives us 500 singles and 2100 mini order numbers gave us 77.7. 8,200*5 = 41TH. 6400*30 = 19.2 TH 500 * 60 = 30TH and 77* 500 = 38.5TH. 41+19.2+30+38.5 = 128.7. Obviously I am misremembering where the numbers were on that day, as I had a total at 165TH.
Actually, that is not how statistics works. Before you use a data set you need to assess it's quality. Determine how many entries are duplicates like these: 4843 2013/07/04 100070420 No 0 1 0 0 Algorn 4844 2013/07/04 100070420 No 0 1 0 0 Algorn 4845 2013/07/04 100070420 No 0 1 0 0 Algorn Determine how many are obviously false like this one: 4860 2013/07/10 234234 No 1 2 3 4 asdf Worse, you have based your entire assessment on 1 order number = 1 order. A cursory examination of the data will reveal this to be totally false (as would an understanding of databases and online order systems). Sneer all you want, I care not, just because you cannot understand, you belittle and demean. Go pat yourself on the back and try not to hurt yourself.
It is true, I cannot understand how someone who claims to attended MIT have such a bad aptitude at math and statistics. |
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Insert long post from k9quaint here
Got em' coach. I get paid by the ASCII code |
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Seems like a good place for a PSA: If you have ordered from ButterFly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules). First ask ButterFly Labs for a refund, they will probably say no but you might get lucky. If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. Multiple customers have already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days. If you ordered via Bitcoin or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC and they will advocate for you with ButterFly Labs to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises. You can also do a paper filing with the DA here: http://da.jocogov.org/complaint-formsThere are also several threads on how to get a refund from ButterFly Labs, here are two: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0 |
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Using information from http://bfl.ptz.ro/ as a guide, on average you see .1TH of network speed per order placed. Since ASIC orders start around 1600 due to upgraded FPGA orders, the then order numbers into the 72,000's indicated over 70,000 potential orders. Simple math gets you from .1TH * 70,000 = 7PH. This did not take into account, as I said, cancelled or refunded orders. It was a guess of the TOTAL ORDERBOOK. You are assuming that every time the order number increments, it indicates an order than corresponds to a single entry in bfl.ptz.ro worth 100GH/s. Incorrect assumption. We don't know how orders were grouped or what percentage of each device family registered with the list. What everyone could agree on was that mini-rigs were over represented in the data. Also, BFL would assign a number to an order that was never fully processed (payment did not complete), further skewing the numbers. Finally, the order number is probably a primary key in a database, they are not guaranteed to be a monotonically increasing sequence. Extrapolating the mini-rig orders out smoothly is not a wise assumption. Mini-rig orders are most likely to be from people who have been to both bitcointalk and BFL forums and would be most likely to have encountered the list at bfl.ptz.ro. 1 time Jalapeno orders would be the least likely to have entered their order into the list. Mini-rigs are also a large investment, so the people who ordered them have the most incentive to register on the list to keep BFL honest. Assigning each BFL order number a value of 100GH/s is certainly wildly optimistic. Finally, BFL is between 15% and 20% of the way through their order book. If your estimate held up, that would indicate that they have already shipped between 1050TH/s and 1400TH/s according to your "guesstimate". This is can be verified as false because the network hash rate is no where near that. First, I understand quite well that http://bfl.ptz.ro/ and reality don't mesh, but it was a starting point. I made no claims these were accurate, it was a guess and remains a guess. You mean like this order number 234234? 4860 2013/07/10 234234 No 1 2 3 4 asdf or this order? 1073 2012/11/23 100057492 No 2 0 0 15 Blacksheep Name: BlackSheep Posts: 9 Activity: 9 Position: Jr. Member Date Registered: April 06, 2013, 08:28:04 PM Last Active: May 14, 2013, 11:44:29 PM Second, I doubt the REALLY big mini-rig buyers listed their orders. According to http://bfl.ptz.ro/ only 10 minis were bought Day 1 and only 29 by the end of July. It took them 21 shipping days to clear day 1 minis... 1 every other day? Yet they cleared the other 19 in 11 shipping days? I remember reading a rumor that an order for 50 mini's was placed day 1. That would be 3 per shipping day for the day 1's IF TRUE and 2+ per shipping day since (if you add the 2/3's). Makes more sense than 1/2 followed by 2. So you think there are a massive number of "dark mini-rig orders" that make up the difference between what the data shows and your conclusions. Sadly, no, BFL is not even 10% of the way through their complete orderbook as I detailed it. You are discounting the fact that their 2 biggest lines are the farthest behind. If you go by order numbers alone, Jalapenos are only at 26%. Little singles are only at 17%, Singles are only at 4% and the mini's are at 6% for 1/3 of orders and maybe 1-2% of 2nd?
15% by order number, not by hash rate (which there is no way to divine). Again you rely on your "dark mini-rig" mass to account for the difference. That said, this also does not take into account cancelled orders and refunds.
Using the available data, i calculated 2/3 orders had a jalapeno, 1/4 had an LS, 5/9 had a single and 1/27 had a mini. Using the order numbers they were up to at the time, these averages gave me 165TH for BFL when total hash was ~450TH. Given the lack of other shippers and 40TH to bitfury, when added to the estimates everyone had for Avalon and ASICMiner, we were still about 30TH shy. I felt that was a pretty good estimate.
2/3rds Jalapenos? 3575 Jalapenos ordered, 4951 orders total. That is 72.2% of orders have a Jalapeno if nobody ordered more than one. Sadly, there are orders for 5,8,10,12,16,25,40,64, & dozens for 2 or 3. That blows your 2/3rds estimate out of the water. You made the same mistake with your 5/9ths as Singles. More orders of singles were for multiple units than not. Far fewer than 1 in 27 orders had a mini-rig, and again many were for multiple units. This is not the guesstimate of someone who attended MIT. Another example of bcp19 playing fast and lose with the facts: 3) I kinda just dislike k9 in general, cause he seems to think BTC is a set currency and not a volatile commodity.
I specifically disabused him of this notion and dismantled his assertions to the contrary. Again, obviously not MIT material as he is unable to understand even basic currency calculations. |
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Actually you are presenting non factual information as Inaba ie Joshua does post here. You are definitely posting like someone whom does not have a high IQ as all you have presented in any post is your assumptions. While I have used examples to show things people refuse to believe, I never claimed any of them were fact. I have said things like "If they shipped 1.5TH a day, this would be the result" and I have performed the calculations based on that IF. People have made statements that shipping has stalled all because Singles: July 4 appeared 2 days in a row. From there they make claims that BFL is intentionally NOT shipping to FORCE people to switch orders. Followed by: BFL: 7PH and rising.
Oops. bcp19 was asked to provide evidence of that 7PH and rising claim, but of course could not. There are many more examples of bcp19 confusing fact and fan-fiction. What you fail to note is that they asked for a GUESTIMATE of how mant TH of preorders each company has. A guess is a guess. I never claimed it to be fact, it was, is and always will be a guess. While you think cutting and pasting little anecdotes is cute and funny, in reality it is rather sad. Instead fo trying to find REAL proof of anything, you manufacture it and mis-repesent it. Grow up already. Guesstimate: an estimate based on a mixture of guesswork and calculation.When asked for your calculation, you could provide none. Of course, you could provide your calculations for the 7PH here. Then we could ridicule them and send you on your way. But I doubt someone with as much pride as you would risk showing your work. I stated then, as I do now, they were from another post that I looked for and did not find. So you read somewhere on the internet that there was 7PH, then represented it as fact. Got it. Using information from http://bfl.ptz.ro/ as a guide, on average you see .1TH of network speed per order placed. Since ASIC orders start around 1600 due to upgraded FPGA orders, the then order numbers into the 72,000's indicated over 70,000 potential orders. Simple math gets you from .1TH * 70,000 = 7PH. This did not take into account, as I said, cancelled or refunded orders. It was a guess of the TOTAL ORDERBOOK. You are assuming that every time the order number increments, it indicates an order than corresponds to a single entry in bfl.ptz.ro worth 100GH/s. Incorrect assumption. We don't know how orders were grouped or what percentage of each device family registered with the list. What everyone could agree on was that mini-rigs were over represented in the data. Also, BFL would assign a number to an order that was never fully processed (payment did not complete), further skewing the numbers. Finally, the order number is probably a primary key in a database, they are not guaranteed to be a monotonically increasing sequence. Extrapolating the mini-rig orders out smoothly is not a wise assumption. Mini-rig orders are most likely to be from people who have been to both bitcointalk and BFL forums and would be most likely to have encountered the list at bfl.ptz.ro. 1 time Jalapeno orders would be the least likely to have entered their order into the list. Mini-rigs are also a large investment, so the people who ordered them have the most incentive to register on the list to keep BFL honest. Assigning each BFL order number a value of 100GH/s is certainly wildly optimistic. Finally, BFL is between 15% and 20% of the way through their order book. If your estimate held up, that would indicate that they have already shipped between 1050TH/s and 1400TH/s according to your "guesstimate". This is can be verified as false because the network hash rate is no where near that. |
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