Sometimes laughing at yourself is the best way to relieve stress. Yes I will not deny that I am a little panicked seeing the price of bitcoin right now. I think that's perfectly fine, as long as the panic is not excessive. Sometimes before going to bed I like to fantasize that bitcoin is going to go bad, but after that I chuckle because it's not going to happen.  But make sure don’t repeat the mistakes that you have made that made you lose Bitcoins. 1 BTC will always be 1 BTC! and we should always be in the business of accumulating as much as we can by buying DIPs, not trade and risk of losing them.  Learn, or learn the hard way.  |
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...I like how easily Bitcoin and other shitcoins can get you profit, especially if you get the perfect dip, but I don't mind earning something from day trading using leverage. Of course, I use low leverage  Leverage allows a trader to open a short position, and accordingly earn money in a falling market. This is something that no trader in the spot market can do. So without using leverage, in most cases you would have to stay away from the market. Shorting is where good trader earns good money. Since the dips are usually bigger the bigger is the profit. That’s not true, ser. In sho ing, the maximum profit your trade can do is 100%. That’s only 2x of your money. To illustrate, many newbies make the common mistake of thinking that shorting from $10,000 to $5,000 gave them 100% of profit. No, it’s only 50%. You are also counting incorrectly, since you do not specify the amount of leverage in your calculations. Your calculations are valid only for x1. Thus, if you use x10 leverage, then the size of your profit in your case will be 500%. For context, we then go back to my original point, that what’s better for newbies? Simply HODLing, or gambling $100 with 50x leverage? Out of 100 newbies who do it, how many of them would not be liquidated? I would always tell them to buy the DIP, and HODL, not trade with leverage without the education, the skills, and the capital. |
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Post your best memes, sers. I believe we’ll be needing it to help us go through the toughest of crashes, and to relieve us from the stresses of the convictions of the HODL. Peter Schiff of he was a Bitcoin HODLer.  |
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[edited out]
I simply wanted a discussion. Yes... And, we more than sufficiently discussed - way beyond any relevance in regards to the topic of this thread. What I truly learned from our discussion/debate is that, the Stock To Flow Model will always be “on target”, Plan B will just move the goal posts again, and adjust the “model”. The model is already broadly framed, so even if PlanB was talking about specific price targets (floors) such as $98k in November and $135k in December, his discussion does not change the broad parameters in which the model is already framed. 2024 will be the year, then $1,000,000 per Bitcoin during 2026, or it’s invalidated.
Of course, you can do whatever you want Wind_FURY.. you seemingly disingenuine dweeb...  Disingenuine? Who? Didn’t you say Plan B can “tweak” the model, move the goal posts, if there’s new data that changes the market’s conditions, now you’re saying it’s “broadly framed”? How convenient. Yes... maybe you are starting to get it. Broadly framed.. good to use as a reference. Gaslight? “Tweaking” and “broadly framed” are two different things. To “tweak” is to change/move the goal posts, “broadly framed” is fixed. Didn’t you also ridicule me at the mere suggestion that a 30% price reduction of Bitcoin when it was trading over $60,000?
Perhaps... I don't recall that specific issue... but it could have been that I felt some need to attempt to ridicule you.. but there might be some need for a context, to the extent that it might be relevant to anything at this moment besides your hurt feelings... “You felt” a mere suggestion of a 30% reduction from above $60,000, based on Bitcoin’s volatility was to be ridiculed because you could not believe Bitcoin would crash below $50,000. Plus hurt my feelings? Hahaha. Neither you, nor franky1 can do that. What are you claiming now, that it isn’t ridiculous after all?
Your negating a currently valid model is ridiculous.. and your making up your own wild claims seems a bit ridiculous, too. Did we have a specific claim that we currently wanted to explore? Or you just want to whine about hypotheticals? Merely questioning the validity, ser. Plus because of you’re name-calling, you’re starting to remind me of my forum-bestie franky1. He was also one of those people I thought all plebs like me should be learning from.
You are misguided if you are making those kinds of comparisons.. but do what you like. Do you have anything topical, or you just want to cry over spilt milk or some past issues/grievances that you might have about some vague issues that are only quasi-relevant? It’s your name-calling reminded me of franky1. I thought you had a little more respect in you. |
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...I like how easily Bitcoin and other shitcoins can get you profit, especially if you get the perfect dip, but I don't mind earning something from day trading using leverage. Of course, I use low leverage Leverage allows a trader to open a short position, and accordingly earn money in a falling market. This is something that no trader in the spot market can do. So without using leverage, in most cases you would have to stay away from the market. Shorting is where good trader earns good money. Since the dips are usually bigger the bigger is the profit. That’s not true, ser. In shorting, the maximum profit your trade can do is 100%. That’s only 2x of your money. To illustrate, many newbies make the common mistake of thinking that shorting from $10,000 to $5,000 gave them 100% of profit. No, it’s only 50%. |
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[edited out]
I simply wanted a discussion. Yes... And, we more than sufficiently discussed - way beyond any relevance in regards to the topic of this thread. What I truly learned from our discussion/debate is that, the Stock To Flow Model will always be “on target”, Plan B will just move the goal posts again, and adjust the “model”. The model is already broadly framed, so even if PlanB was talking about specific price targets (floors) such as $98k in November and $135k in December, his discussion does not change the broad parameters in which the model is already framed. 2024 will be the year, then $1,000,000 per Bitcoin during 2026, or it’s invalidated.
Of course, you can do whatever you want Wind_FURY.. you seemingly disingenuine dweeb... Disingenuine? Who? Didn’t you say Plan B can “tweak” the model, move the goal posts, if there’s new data that changes the market’s conditions, now you’re saying it’s “broadly framed”? How convenient. Didn’t you also ridicule me at the mere suggestion that a 30% price reduction of Bitcoin when it was trading over $60,000? What are you claiming now, that it isn’t ridiculous after all? Plus because of you’re name-calling, you’re starting to remind me of my forum-bestie franky1. He was also one of those people I thought all plebs like me should be learning from. |
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What the 90% of “traders” don’t truly understand is that the top 10% of traders, who are real professionals, WANT them to continue trading. The “traders” are their victims. Do you want to be a victim? Or do you want to simply Buy Bitcoin, and HODL? , after all if I was in their position to make a lot of money thanks to the completely mistaken ideas that the majority of those that trade the markets have then I would do the same, and I think that is pretty much a given for everyone else. It is in their right, as newbies, to lose their own money gambling with high leverage in shitcoins, but it’s also in our right to give them an opposing point of view to make them stop from losing their own salary, their wife’s salary, their mother’s salary. Without a doubt, whenever I see a newbie with dreams of making 100x in a week I warn them that this is not possible, as you may guess the majority do not listen but I think there is a small percentage of them that do and it feels great to help other people on the beginning of their journey. However even if we help them out that does not mean that they have actually learned their lesson as the temptation to invest in all kind of useless coins or use a lot of leverage will always be there, and if they cannot remain firm on their desire to stay away from those options then they will eventually lose their money. The leverage is just too huge to resist for newbies but having just $100 with 50x is going to be easy money for the platform to bet on to get the margin call. Exchanges are also market makers, they are probably always betting against the 50x leverage plebs. They can make the price “DIP”, liquidated the plebs, then collect their money. “Thanks for playing ser, come again”. |
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As Turkish president, Erdogan should urge the country's citizens to use their national currency, the lira, more. This is his duty and the lira will indeed be strengthened in this way. But citizens must also consider their own interests. If the government is not running the country efficiently and the lira is subject to high inflation, it is of course better to seek a safe haven for your cryptocurrency savings. People should not pay for the mistakes of their leaders.
The citizens of Turkey don’t have a choice. They SHOULD use their currency to buy something, because inflation in Turkey will cause the prices of commodities, and services to surge. But never save their money in Lira. Erdogan is scamming his own people. |
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Okay, that's it. I can't continue this further. I don't make any sense and I can't stand the mood of the discussion with this unwholesome person. There's no discussion at all, it's just franky spitting nonsense perpetually trying to psychologically project himself. This thread is pointless. Neither we nor he will accomplish anything. Hahaha! I told you. I know franky1, I had the best learning experiences about Bitcoin from him and jonald_fyookball, the hard way. Everything, from being convinced that big blocks will scale Bitcoin, to debating about offchain layers. It’s better to post the truth, then ignore the trolls. You will not sound like franky1. Why? Because you’re neither gaslighting people, nor spreading disinformation. I’ll post it again.
The coins in channels are signed transactions that have not been broadcasted and included in the blockchain yet. No one in Lightning is sending something worthless in the network. They are literally BITCOINS, not IOUs.
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[edited out]
I simply wanted a discussion. Yes... And, we more than sufficiently discussed - way beyond any relevance in regards to the topic of this thread. What I truly learned from our discussion/debate is that, the Stock To Flow Model will always be “on target”, Plan B will just move the goal posts again, and adjust the “model”. 2024 will be the year, then $1,000,000 per Bitcoin during 2026, or it’s invalidated. Who doesn't want to buy from Dip. This can reduce your risk. Moreover, if you buy from any asset from dip, it can easily increase your asset later. Bitcoin is in terrible moment today but it will be in good condition or regain the full force with in short of time. If your purchasing skills and circumstances are favorable then of course it is not right to miss that opportunity.
I have buy orders set down every $1k down to $20k.. but it is not like I really even want then to fill.. I would prefer that the price goes up.... Many of us are merely plebs. We don’t have as much capital as you, which is why it’s more practical for us to actually try to buy the DIP. I believe if plebs want to wait for the lowest point of the market, it will probably during 2023, IF we are indeed in a bear market. |
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"Metaverse" is just a rebranding of "cyberspace". There is nothing new about it.
I believe it’s the same with “Web3”. What actually is Web3? Another rebranding, by some entities, to run a narrative and for people to ride that bandwagon for the entities to make billions.
Whoever succeeds and becomes the dominant meta-platform (call it Roblox, Meta or however is there) is very likely to use crypto, NFT and some form of governance. My question to the forum is what do members think that will be the regulations inside the Metaverse? Who set the law (government, the company, both, the users,...)? Who and how decides the "punishment" or penalties for missuse? How do they deal with privacy?
The Metaverse seems full of legal, philosophical and economic questions yet to be answered.
I believe incentivization, and reputation scores within the “metaverse” would be one idea to make users behave accordingly. |
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I meant issuance is reduced by half after every halving, and therefore also reducing selling-pressure.
I included the exchange inflows chart above to dispel that belief. You belief that the halving reduces the number of bitcoins sent to exchanges and thereby reduces "selling-pressure". However, the chart shows exactly the opposite -- the number of bitcoins sent to exchanges increases after a halving (in two instances). OK, then there’s greater demand, which makes the price surge, in spite of the increased selling-pressure after a halving. My next question is, then what’s your opinion on Plan B’s Stock To Flow Model? Is it then naive to assume that Bitcoin will simply increase in price because of the halvings? |
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So, yeah, if we are using any model, and facts are changing in such a way that had not been anticipated by the model whether it is in the near-term or further out in the model's life then we either tweak the model as we go or throw it out and substitute with a better model(s) if such better model(s) then exist.
S2F predicted $135,000 by December 2021. How can you “tweak” a predictive model if it’s wrong by obviously a very large percentage? It can’t be taken seriously after the “tweak”. This has been mentioned several times, and shows both your lack of interaction (just spouting out your own talking points over and over), and your not even understanding what the fuck you are talking about.. OK, then we should blindly follow, and believe PlanB’s Stock to Flow Model as a working Model, and accept that he can move the goal posts on a whim whenever there’s new circumstances/data that affects Bitcoin’s price. That’s a “Model” that will never be invalidated. If you choose to NOT give the model any weight and to poo poo what it is saying, then you have a right to live in a fantasy, and it seems to me that you are ignoring a presentation of facts and logic that is right in front of you. The debate is not about me, it’s about the model. Huh? Since when have I given any shits about you? Largely my criticisms of you have to do with how you are criticizing the model and spouting out baloney... so in that sense, I am talking about your ideas not you. It was not on “my idea”, I’m the stupid one. That was tweeted by one of the most respected Bitcoiners in the community. Is he full of “baloney” too? , then you have to take responsibility for what you are saying.... Seems that my interaction is with you, and I am not interacting with Aaron Vanwirdum.. .. you are the one who has both been making the bold and dumb statements and then subsequently mischaracterizing even what is going on by suggesting that PlanB's assertions about the floor model is the same as his assertions about stock to flow and also presuming that anyone gives too many shits about specifically what PlanB is saying on an ongoing basis in order to understand some of the concepts underlying the stock to flow model. Aaron Van Wirdum’s scarcasm aside, is questioning the validity of the model a dumb idea?
So your ongoing desires to keep talking about stock to flow is dead blah blah blah.. does not really seem to be progressing any kind of discussion in any kind of meaningful way... especially when you do not even seem to know what the fuck you are talking about so now you resort to saying "other smart people are saying it. blah blah blah." So what.
“Is dead”? I was merely questioning if it was currently valid, and if yes, then what factors should we consider until it starts to be invalid? Plus why is questioning the validity of the model be a person living in fantasy?
I have already explained. the model is correlated to data.. Of course, you do not have to agree with it, and you can give it little weight, but totally ignoring it or acting like it has no value seems to be quite detached from reality.. In the end, we are talking about various ways of framing BTC price movements where we have been, where we are at and from that, where we might be going. The model said $100,000 by December, it was off by how much?
Stock to flow model did not say that. How many times does this need to be repeated? Yes it did, https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/stock-to-flow/ Yes.. I see a line at the $100k level.. that does not mean that the price has to be on the line at a specific date. The line is near $100,000 ends during the first half of 2024, then next horizontal line is $1,000,000. If price regresses below the $100,000 line, and never surges to $1,000,000 during 2026, what now? Move goal posts because “reasons”, right? I believe that would be an admission that the model has been invalidated in the face of new data. Plan B was always tweeting “right on schedule” before the model started to break apart,
So fucking what in regards to what PlanB was saying about being on schedule, and the model is not broken.. in spite of all your fantasies and the various fantasies of other supposed "smart people." and everybody started laughing at him. Currently he goes around saying that Bitcoin’s price is being suppressed, probably the message is “I’m not wrong, the market is wrong”. Hahaha.
You are easily distracted. If there is a mean that is expected by the model there should be deviance from the mean on both sides of the mean.. .. so yeah, the longer that the price is below the mean, the more likely that the mean would need to be shifted or maybe there is something else wrong with the model.. too early to call like I said about 10,000 times.. Does a model being wrong by that much still should be considered a valid model? BUT Plan B is allowed to move the goal posts, then who is living in a fantasy?
You seem to be living in a fantasy.... and failing to even grapple with the topic that you are criticizing. So in that regard, you are both living in a fantasy and even difficult to follow about what the fuck you are talking about. Am I? .. you cannot even stick to the topic of this thread.. sure I understand the future BTC price can affect how much any of us might consider there to actually be a dip or if more dip might be coming and also attempt to inform us about what we might do right now in terms of our own cash flow.. just buy blindly and regularly or attempt to time some buys or just give up and don't do anything. If we are in BTC accumulation stage, it would be good to have some kind of a buying plan. whether that is on some kind of regular basis such as daily / Weekly or some kinds of price targets, as I am expecting that there may have been a lot of folks who already bought at several times in these lower $40ks since the first time we got to lower $40ks was December 3, and then we been revisiting lower $40ks in the past two weeks-ish. Exaggerating? Your over-reaction is exaggerating. I simply wanted a discussion. |
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This topic reminds me of my debates with franky1, but this topic is on steroids. BUT let’s make it simple. Newbies, whatever the trolls say to disinform you, whatever the trolls post to gaslight you, YOU only need to know that those coins in channels are signed transactions that have not been broadcasted and included in the blockchain yet. No one in Lightning is sending something worthless in the network. They are literally BITCOINS.
If only it was that simple. You have to make your point with arguments. Even if I consider franky a troll, I can't just say to everyone that he's a liar and I'm right. The whole point of the thread is to show why and where he's right/wrong. Also, there's no way newbies reach the 10th page of this mess. But it is that simple, because he is trolling you. Remember when I was alone debating him, and it only annoyed everyone because many topics became “Wind_FURY and franky1 show”? Someone actually said that. I have limited technical knowledge, but I tried debating him alone, without help except from DooMAD, because I knew he was lying, only to learn weeks and months later that he was gaslighting the NEWBIES who will read through without technical knowledge themselves. He is also trolling you now, and he will post long technical stuff to confuse you. It’s better not to debate franky1, it’s also better to educate newbies. |
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You are assuming that CBDC will be like stablecoins but owned by government, but this is very unlikely. Governments are not going to let people have full control over their own money, so you won't be able to do cross-chain swaps between Bitcoin and CBDC without intermediaries.
Converting between BTC and fiat is really not a problem for users, there are even Visa/Mastercard cards that allow you to use your crypto exchange balance to pay anywhere.
I’m assuming that the Central Banks will keep BRRR-printing more fiat into existence, in the form of both paper money AND CBDC, to inflate their balance sheets. It doesn’t only make the black hole of Bitcoin suck more value, it also makes the value of the narrative for Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap much higher in my opinion. |
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OP, no. Users of shitcoins like CBDC and worthless fiat always find their path to convert them to hard money, Bitcoin, and HODL. But “What is hard money” is different for some people. Some people say it’s Bitcoin, other people say it’s Gold. Whatever it is, it’s not CBDC. CBDC will make Bitcoin more valuable.
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This topic reminds me of my debates with franky1, but this topic is on steroids. BUT let’s make it simple. Newbies, whatever the trolls say to disinform you, whatever the trolls post to gaslight you, YOU only need to know that those coins in channels are signed transactions that have not been broadcasted and included in the blockchain yet. No one in Lightning is sending something worthless in the network. They are literally BITCOINS.
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People know the effect of the halving long before the halving actually occurs. If that is the cause then you would see the effect before the halving.
I debated about that during 2020, whether the halving was priced in, or not. I said the same thing as you, but I was proven wrong by the market. It’s the same as years 2012, and 2016. The price surged after the halving, showing everyone that it was not truly priced in. As I have already documented, the price surged after a halving only in 2012 (and then again a year later). Other surges were not until at least a year after a halving. Also, people ignore that the 2011 price surge was before the 2012 halving. Furthermore, the price had risen significantly before each halving. How is that not evidence that the halving was "priced in"? The surges later do not disprove it. Interestingly, Litecoin does show this effect. In both Litecoin halvings, the price rose sharply until just prior to the halving. Then, the bubble popped and the price fell sharply, and it continued to fall after the halving.
It’s probably no one really values Litecoin? That is not true of course, but it shouldn't matter either way. I think that it shows that speculation is much more of a factor in Litecoin because the effect was so strong. I believe that the actual causes of the Bitcoin bubbles are similar, but more general. News about the halvings or other events generates interest and promotes speculation, which which feeds on itself and slowly evolves into a bubble.
Finally, if we attribute the bubbles to what people believe about the supply and not the supply itself, then the bubbles have little to do with money supply and everything to do with demand.
But the supply itself does reduce after a halving. . I meant issuance is reduced by half after every halving, and therefore also reducing selling-pressure. Plus if we check the chart in weekly, actually buyers were starting to buy again during January of 2015 for the 2016 halving and January of 2019 for the 2020 halving. It’s probably in anticipation of everyone’s expectation of the halving, therefore increasing demand. Miners are also speculators, they probably loaned fiat to have the cashflow to pay for their bills now, and sell their coins later. |
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So, yeah, if we are using any model, and facts are changing in such a way that had not been anticipated by the model whether it is in the near-term or further out in the model's life then we either tweak the model as we go or throw it out and substitute with a better model(s) if such better model(s) then exist.
S2F predicted $135,000 by December 2021. How can you “tweak” a predictive model if it’s wrong by obviously a very large percentage? It can’t be taken seriously after the “tweak”. This has been mentioned several times, and shows both your lack of interaction (just spouting out your own talking points over and over), and your not even understanding what the fuck you are talking about.. OK, then we should blindly follow, and believe PlanB’s Stock to Flow Model as a working Model, and accept that he can move the goal posts on a whim whenever there’s new circumstances/data that affects Bitcoin’s price. That’s a “Model” that will never be invalidated. If you choose to NOT give the model any weight and to poo poo what it is saying, then you have a right to live in a fantasy, and it seems to me that you are ignoring a presentation of facts and logic that is right in front of you. The debate is not about me, it’s about the model. Huh? Since when have I given any shits about you? Largely my criticisms of you have to do with how you are criticizing the model and spouting out baloney... so in that sense, I am talking about your ideas not you. It was not on “my idea”, I’m the stupid one. That was tweeted by one of the most respected Bitcoiners in the community. Is he full of “baloney” too? Plus why is questioning the validity of the model be a person living in fantasy?
I have already explained. the model is correlated to data.. Of course, you do not have to agree with it, and you can give it little weight, but totally ignoring it or acting like it has no value seems to be quite detached from reality.. In the end, we are talking about various ways of framing BTC price movements where we have been, where we are at and from that, where we might be going. The model said $100,000 by December, it was off by how much?
Stock to flow model did not say that. How many times does this need to be repeated? Yes it did, https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/stock-to-flow/ Plan B was always tweeting “right on schedule” before the model started to break apart, and everybody started laughing at him. Currently he goes around saying that Bitcoin’s price is being suppressed, probably the message is “I’m not wrong, the market is wrong”. Hahaha. Does a model being wrong by that much still should be considered a valid model? BUT Plan B is allowed to move the goal posts, then who is living in a fantasy?
You seem to be living in a fantasy.... and failing to even grapple with the topic that you are criticizing. So in that regard, you are both living in a fantasy and even difficult to follow about what the fuck you are talking about. Am I? |
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I have had enough of my share of debates against franky1 about the Lighting Network, or anything, that many other people in the forum got annoyed because the topics ended with the both of us debating. He has been gaslighting/spreading disinformation everywhere. He always denies the fact that all Bitcoins in Lightning are actual Bitcoins, calling them IOUs. I give him an explanation why they’re not IOUs, he replies with a VERY LONG “technical” post of confusion to troll you.
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