Its impossible to count votes like that, the system is electoral college and not purely numbers like that.   This is the giant mess Press got wrong in 2016 in ignoring the complexities of the system and the division of votes in each region.   Its enough votes purely in a theoretical way but it its unlikely to work in any perfect case scenario to alter results just like that.   I would also argue alot of voters just stay away when they dont have their ideal candidate, think of all the people who wanted Bernie Sanders in a unique way quite a few wont find any reason to vote elsewhere just because a party orders them to.

Price action is drawing near to a point of note, 63.2k is just early March and a place of possible support but its 8 days of relevance in that area so we should not ignore those who traded there.    We can judge the reaction to this area for some measure of strength, I'd say 58k is about a more normal place to find support because its a longer term Fibonacci level also.
  However in the last year we've traded 58k on 3 days only, we ran over it care free pretty much and it was not shown as great significance on that first encounter.  March 6th sell off sharp and brief was near there on its low, most we could say about it near term wise.

As always we must observe, learn and conclude from what actually is occurring not stand in the way of a freight train stout in our belief or underneath a falling rock if BTC wants to go lower; only doubt trends when the pace deviates from a trajectory or respects some levels of support or volume traded prior.
   I think 63k might show us more then 58k for the moment, also I want to see BTC in the next working week.  I'm not sure if the emphasis upwards is greater during the week perhaps then weekends where we fall back with sellers who just want to use up the BTC not accumulate for higher with patience of some unknown period required in that venture.

Great quote but I find if you personally are the only reason for motivation then its not much depth to your wanting something.   It doesn't have to be greed but it sounds like it could easily end up as just being self centered egotistical desire to lavish luxury on yourself, that might be enough for some but I don't expect greatness from a person only motivated by the range of what they see personally.    

Theres a thousand others who also want the best for themselves and will do anything, to actually get the luxury element and premium wages to pay for it I believe it requires great vision beyond yourself in some way and thats exceptional hence you not only want but will secure the means to gain luxuries above normal society.  Of course many in rich countries already have luxury and think its normal, there is that too.

Warren Buffet who I would not argue in any case goes without luxuries he has a private Jet so if anything he agrees with the above and more so, a great luxury to own the time of your own departure and circumstances etc.   However he gave a good example in not owning a car without cosmetic damage, if a car receives hail damage while sitting on the car sales lot it looks far worse covered in dents all over.  However a hail damaged car drives no worse and is far cheaper hence a good definition of luxury, something you have which has no effect practically and is just personal preference for yourself.   This isn't rare as people will pay and decide car purchase by car colors and other non utility reasons, that would be luxury though quite ordinary if its costing more to do so.

Food prices will rise over 20 years because of how the world economy is developing, at present many people avoid eating meat due to the price it costs.  If you find many more countries able to purchase limited resources then the prices will rise for that product so part of the inflation people complain about will be the export of food to countries able to pay a higher price for it.

Part of the rising cost to food will be Fertilizer and control of that resource which not every country has a source of, this greatly alters crop yield and enhances the local market prices around the productive farms with this resource.  If you continually grow and harvest without returning anything to the soil it will turn farms into poor performing enterprises and business advantage will go elsewhere.  SO just judging Fertilizer prices and access to this resource should indicate some of the demand, its a decade long term market imo as harvest though annual is reliant on long term factors such as the water table, weather and quality of soil

Out of gas is my rough take on what I can see today.   Its not yet over, this week that is & I'm only calling this short term action in its current cycle we appear to need to close back down below the old ATH and review prices in this area.    If weekly bar closes here and a few other signs add in to indicate some weakness and turn to a negative trend then don't fight price action as its normal.


My measure which I've used for years now is the weekly average, below it we are weak and recent prices at highest only just touched that measure and fell back.  We have attempted higher and failed, its not recovering the prices it needs to prove BTC is still positive in this moment.  So we are negative trend near term and set to continue downwards until we can find support.  Daily bar close today to confirm and this Sunday is the weekly bar that should seal our fate until and only if next week can solidly reverse this negative action can I change my mind, for now I'm set negative and looking downwards possibly & probably for the rest of this month.

Im maybe in a rare position on this thread, this was an old program and Im fairly sure I watched it live on TV at the time of broadcast.   Not the entire series I thought it was just a brief premise personally though its a big deal for one person not that complicated overall.  Anyhow it is real, Im 90% certain I recognize the face of this person and  I imagine even the episodes are stored somewhere to purchase if really wanted to verify authenticity.

Alot of gambling is publicity and the show and it was a good show as a one off, quite feasible etc.


Yea not too much to doubt, people win this kind of bet often enough and it was a modest outcome.  Only the fact he bet literally all at once made it big and it was smart in that way to just not over complicate go for a simple chance outcome and even better get something for making a show about it.   I dont think it was fixed in any way, he was going to benefit in some part even if he lost but it would be a real loss and the casino themselves can insure and cover the risk on bets; they too gain from good amount of people looking at their casino and maybe coming to bet themselves.

Im pretty that was his motivation alot of times, he just happens to have an excess of skill and natural ability at various times in his life.   I find it hard to doubt him now even years later but health of someone older can be in question just because he is human like all of us so they will stay safe on that aspect pretty sure.

Only 10m for Jake Paul is quite funny, this is only a streamer or YouTube kid he isnt anything beyond just a famous hype merchant.  If he gets 10m he better be very happy about it, I would guess he'll get more in proportion to whatever Tyson gets and in any case they'll be alot of costs and taxes and so on.   Both are lucky so much attention will be given to a fight which is close to fiction in its basis just for show, they should both be glad of the money when real boxing involves risking your life and I doubt this fight is anywhere in that region.

AI is about convenience and routine tasks performed with computer aid, so we can call it laziness but at some point technology enables those who otherwise would not have a handle on that technology otherwise.  If AI is genuine in its development and potential then it will enable society, this is almost the same for any really successful product you will make the millions and billions when you get to a product which anyone can both use, actually afford and then easily benefit from.

  Its part of why modern society is so rich even if you are not that well off in a capital way we are all quite lucky in technology.  I hope AI becomes part of that and enables some interesting things that have been obscure prior, so that could enable more stats based answers delivered in gambling because thats already been a thing for those who bothered prior, now it may be less effort perhaps.

I learnt 10 onwards, its not really a big deal.  Legally it doesnt matter to learn about anything, actually doing investment and risk of capital is not allowed till 18 as you cannot own a share etc.   It would be perfectly healthy to learn risk reward and the general dynamics of business in a market economy, some of this they do teach in school.   I did business studies at school and liked it, I didnt grade massively high because my language skills were so poor but the main thing with any subject is to give the opportunity and start the process.

Hopefully people even children may teach themselves, once they have learnt to read its more a choice beyond that to learn more and actually focus on what you would like to know most about.   Always a good idea to try and teach children some subject they may appreciate, most times it wont catch on in their minds but I see no reason not to supply the tools and means to learn always.    

Some speculation we can return to this area which is fair but much counter trend to which we've had for a while now and that has been noticeably positive Bitcoin price action so my reckoning is only for a reset within those gains; 52k is just late Feb so hardly distant tbh.   We are breaking the fast trend upwards or threatening very much to do so, it may yet recover upwards from here cant be sure for now.

Todays price action is actually back above 12hr average however it cant get back above the 2 day average which I think suggests a couple days over the weekend and a new weekly bar might help heal some of the selling that came in above the ATH.  I dont take this as a seriously negative just now, just hesitancy and a pullback of some kind which is a normal move after being positive for so long as some will naturally sell of course.

You can buy into a dip like this one but truly I think the skill is knowing when times are more uncertain for BTC then others.  We cant know for sure but some ability to decipher when a pullback has finished or is still developing is useful in getting a good average entry for example.

So my measure right now is we are under a weekly average and also 68k.   The 68k being the old ATH is more psychological but we would like to regain momentum upwards to be fully confident of being part of a gain process to BTC rather then buying into a downturn and requiring more patience.    Patience is somewhat key to finding the best place to buy in; today is Friday and I would wait to this next week beginning at least to begin to level off and develop this price action for best observation ie. let the dust settle some.

Just this part I would comment on as its very common to discover and test support.   I dont know any absolutes but most of what I would state is either experience or observations of others who I respect and hopefully understood and gained something by remembering.      Support is also resistance as I understand it so we have to be careful to not be caught relying on support which becomes a ceiling after we have fallen through that previously good area.   Its all open to being defeated on the daily tape and we can never be sure when this failure occurs unfortunately, or the opposite none of us wants to miss out on a big gain either.

The big repeated statement I read often on support is the word potential has to be used.  Potential support, potential resistance, the historic price volume vs the present and how we contrast the two and guess direction is deciding how likely are we to find buyers in this area so that it is support.

  I think Bitcoin is especially hard as its not just one market, its probably 4 or more areas as we continually switch into a new time zone and a new set of trades dominated by the largest traders and companies in that area so current timeframe is Japan, Australia that region is most prominent imo even though parts of America might be awake or any country I'd assume the focus is with Asia now.  In 8 hours Europe and then after its definitely back to USA as determiner of where price closes.   How do decide anything for sure when not everyone will agree perfectly, I think its all a constant test with a few things in common like the Dollar being weak or strong is usually a universal point of strength or weakness that day.

Im slightly concerned BTC is testing support here too many times.  My analogy is a bowling ball bouncing on ice, once or twice sure but keep repeating in one place I get worried its going to give way :p   I'm probably jumping the gun but we are slower in this area for some time now, less danger in trades might be after we find a resolution.   Problem with rising so fast it can create some weakness and ability to reverse downwards also, some caution thats all.

Luxury is by definition the unnecessary and this will depend by the person.   IF you totally need a reliable car and make it part of your living everyday in this reliance then an expensive but well made car can be justified.  IF you may just walk everywhere and do no worse then the car is a luxury, walking might even be the better choice for health but people drive for luxury instead.   Its true lots of people drive a car almost as a status symbol and it might be the biggest luxury they have but as they sit in it and are seen in it then its part of their identity to be seen to do well.

This definition definitely matters, especially when we talk about cars, industry and the finance packages that surround new cars.   This all could be in danger of collapse because if we check the nature of the product in a consumerist economy if luxury changes or is altered by a recession etc. alot of this business will be weak and constrict quite easily.  That people dont require that luxury transport not at that price not new especially, they can fix old cars for twenty or more years.   Add in that cars will need to become near to zero emissions at some point if agreements made by countries to reduce their national use of fossil fuels is serious; that big turning point could trip up the whole supply chain I guess.

Even bigger wider point of reference certainly I have to mention is Exters triangle which tries to define assets by security.    Car loans has to be one of the most risky types of debt there are due to the underlying asset itself being so uncertain, the chances of non performance and the unsecured debt short falls is quite substantial imo.    This would relate back to 2008 with sub prime though mostly Housing, cars were related in unreliable debt expansion and subsequent collapse.

I went slow method and it cleared in an hour or so because the timer or countdown for it was low which is when it should go ahead.  Its 3 hours now try verify you have everything correct.


BTC price is still blipping about the 68k level so Im thinking we are into new prices isnt this a rocket launch move from lack of volume to resist in this area.   Seems looking back to December 2020 we did take a few weeks before launching higher, I guess its not yet been long enough to call it.  Todays lows are weekly average, if thats the last touch of this support I'll take it as likely to continue otherwise it might stall if BTC price action waits much longer.  I do see us taking a bit more time to gain further, its not yet broken the pattern of prior gains but most of March so far has orbited around this one price.

Its not fake, I've seen this play out before and I bet its been done a thousand times over the centuries of roulette being a game.  Its a calculated risk, not all possessions are monetary its possible the person gambling will actually be fine even if they lose all their money as many people are lucky enough to be supported.  

If they have a job they may still have the ticket home and the opportunity with good health to re-earn what they have lost, wish that all men are so lucky as they are not.  Ultimately we have to admit to ourselves especially this example outlines that rich men gamble while some cannot entertain such a past time if only because they have little time to spare or anything else.  Quite a few cannot spin everything on a roulette wheel because all their money is immediately owed to bills, what can they gamble freely if they have nothing hence gambling is quite a luxury.  I dont dispute some have this luxury and the spin is real but its not all of us for sure, my roulette spin would not be that impressive as I owe too much to do so.

Probably correct in that we are not near the end but trying to predict hype is a very uncertain game to play.     Some of the hype and buying is not really reliable or advisable in its nature, I much prefer to see a benefit from actual genuine growth of Bitcoin and its ongoing usage thats all bullish and takes years to filter through.

   The tail of a bull whip achieves incredible speeds from its chain effect and sure we can see a parallel to that in how BTC moves under pressure because of its undiluted nature but I would not especially want to rely on that fast movement for a reliable achievement.  BTC can gain outside of consumerist type retail buying just because others have or plain reaction to prior gains snowballing an effect etc.

Age gap here is 30 where as Foreman on his win was a gap of 19 and a world record in that respect along with the others.

You can summarize the fight up on that key point really.  Nobody is going to allow a fight that will damage an old man like Tyson, I hate to call him that because Im sure he'll teach me a lesson easily but the medical aspect will dominate contracts and so the manner in which the fight is conducted.  The essence of the fight will be safety over any other factor because they will get sued if anyone gets hurt in a long-term way; most competitive championship fights where death is still a possible outcome are regulated by a medical requirement for fitness.  

They wont be pressing this fight too much in any extreme way because just the age alone brings forward medical concerns, they want a show they dont want a large liability from actual injuries that wont heal or a bad bleed in some way.   Its something to consider the fight will go ahead on a show basis for sure imo.


George Foreman is probably a good comparison, last fought at 48 though he did have $10m lined up for a return fight after that each in a couple attempts to re-enter the ring, with each fight failing to go through:
Since he made $138m just from the grill, even 10m imo wasnt worth the risk of damage to his health I think age played a part despite his success at becoming the oldest ever heavy weight world champion.

Number one factor will be the economy, check this graph out for jobs creation:

While this might be some positive spin for Biden the reality is not something not always believed by workers on the ground.  I dont doubt the data is there as indicated in that specific layout,  if only because Biden came in after a pandemic and there has been some revival from that backdrop no doubt.   I personally feel many western economies are suffering and the effects are quite unfair because inflation benefits a few who can make debts work in their favor while being able to renew that debt at rates below inflation hence its a subsidy to their business usually.

Workers who are struggling to match bills with pay unevenly matched to inflation may not find this graph accurate to their own personal situation.  If that is true and enough people feel the economy is bad then Biden being upset in his reelection remains quite possible, its probably the most powerful simple factor there is to deciding success or not.

Great pullback occuring today, if that were to hold its very bullish in a similar fashion to what has happened previously.   A pullback is quite ironic, its improvement that looks like a worse price the point being that volume testing supporting resolved to continue upwards is far stronger then it would be untested.  Think of it as hammering a steel sword, better to test in the process then go ahead without ever resolving weakness and sellers in the price.  

Now we have seen support tested, if daily and weekly bar closes in a positive resolution then remain optimistic for further gains like 78k price target stated overhead.

We've barely moved past the last ATH so some people think 100k is within reach this time around I reckon some compromise figure between 68k and 99k maybe is more reasonable for this year then a pullback then maybe later a higher figure or not depending on the wider world economy.

78k is the near term target figure given for this current wave upwards, so March or April type time frame.  I do think even within halvening timeframe occurring we can pullback before high summer and then rise higher in this year.  Reason being is always a pullback occurs even during positive periods of BTC, some of the moves forward contain sellers and they will go out of the price from time to time no matter what; everyone is trying to second guess the other guy in a game of chicken when they sell in any particular time frame.

Behind the spikes up and down theres a tide of price action movement that will take us within grasp of much higher figures.  I've really been waiting for Dollar index to lose 100 before expecting the largest figures to appear, its been down recently and some news of speculative FED moves to loosen some of the higher base rates by central banks but thats just rumor which can swing either way.

  Judge these 70k prices, observe strength or if the market is tired and base your guess from that.  I still dont feel especially wrong to believe we stay around 68k for most of the year but I can be wrong easily as inflation is no way cured for all the major currencies.