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percentage wise this is close
again, no comment on any absolutes as I stared with much smaller amounts
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pffft forget it. I wont tell you any absolute numbers. I also dont need to know if and how rich you are.
Fact is that I outperformed B&H by factor 1.5-2.0.
Orders of magnitude is wrong as I mistyped this and corrected it already in the original thread.
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[/quote]
Not concerned about that at all. It's the accuracy of your claims I'm concerned about. especially the ones about outperforming buy and hold.
If one reads the title of your sub thread and your comments within it, one would think you've never made a trading mistake on the way up from $0.60 to $1200. If true, you should be richer than the many buy and holders who have indeed become rich over the same time period.
[/quote]
Noone is perfect and neither me.
I have had losers as well in BTC trading, no doubt. What is accurate is the outperformance vs. buy and hold and getting out at 1100-1175. Since then, did only short term trades, no position trades any more. Will get back in if the technical picture warrants it.
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Update 3.
Assets September 19, 2014.
85% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)
Hi. This is an interesting thread to watch. Great job S30S2! I'm a bit wary on your 2016-17 predictions but I will grand you the dubiousness about the timing. The outcome is definitely certain and I have the same opinion as well. What I find intriguing though is that you moved your Monero holdings to BTC. Why did you do so? Cheers
In fact I moved cash to BTC today around 390 for a brief trade with stop at 379.
And moved another cash portion to short S&P 500 (2012) and Nasdaq 100 (4107) |
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This is unusual to have a crypto media source that does not have excuses in the back pocket to explain BTC crash (exactly crash, not up) events that are certainly going to happen. I always thought the media already knows who will be the scapegoat. Price dropped. However, this sort of thing could be a fore taste of things to come. Market manipulations happen. Nowadays you can trade BTC on a leveraged basis. This give people that hold a lot of BTC a huge amount of power. They have enough BTC to move the market any time they want.
So what they can do, for example, is open a “short” position on a leveraged BTC exchange, then DUMP a load of BTC on to the market. Their dump forces the price of BTC down. They “win” their short bet, and (if they so desire) can slowly buy back their BTC at a cheaper price. They can even increase their holding. Remember, the trade is leveraged, which means that they can get 10x or even (in some cases) 100x the percentage move. So if the % move was 2%, they can get a 20% return, or even a 200% return, which can be an incentive for people to play dirty. If you look at a 4 year logarithmic chart you’ll see that the huge bull runs are almost perfectly 8 months apart
Price highs and lows run in a well defined sequence. We are now upon the next 8 month increment also the previous huge bull runs were preceded by unusually long periods of price stability in similar triangle patterns. All of this would lead you to believe the price will go into another huge bull run till the end of a year.
Sure they can do that and no doubt they have recently but in actuality these types of trades are extraordinarily difficult and risky to pull off especially on foreign exchanges with unknown owners who could run with your money at any moment. As with any other trades, timing is paramount. If you're wrong about sentiment there could be a bull whale lying in wait to squeeze the hell out of your short. You also never know if the exchange owner himself is looking to screw you. I've never left a dime on any of these sites and am so glad I didn't which is also why im so skeptical of people who claim they sold out their 100% BTC position @1200. How the hell could they have done that since the only real exchange they would likely have used was gox back in December. And that's when they weren't wiring any USD out so even if you were good enough to have picked the top how could you have gotten the money out. I don't wish any theft on anyone but if some whale is trying to short the price down it would serve him right to get nailed. Now is not the time to try that.
People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well.I didn't see 1200 on bitfinex, although it could have happened briefly. But between 1000 and 1100 was certainly possible on both bitfinex and bitstamp. At the same time, I think that most people who claim to have sold out at those prices are more commenting on the small size of their stash then their investing acumen. As Cypherdoc was implying, a typical large holder would not accept the risk of trusting these sites with 1000s of coins or the fiat equivalent. Of course, YMMV, nothing ventured nothing gained. And a whale professional investor may be flying to HK/UK to personally meet the exchange owners, have a staff researching the past history of said owners, etc. Good point, 1200 only happened on gox and was significantly higher than all other exchanges. S3052? Guys you are how we in German say "Korinthenkacker". 1175 was the top and the selling range was 1100-1175 if it is so important to you. >>logictense My method was to store BTC in cold wallets and only briefly put them on bitfinex or stamp for selling and withdrawing thereafter. It worked. |
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You are right in most aspects except of one.
People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well.
[/quote]
So then you should be richer than rich having sold a100% BTC portfolio @$1200 after having successfully navigated all the twists and turns on the way up from $0.60.
[/quote]
Not sure why you are concerned about my "richness" or lack of.
I am very happy.
Believe it or not, I did sell a lot between 1100 and 1200.
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This is unusual to have a crypto media source that does not have excuses in the back pocket to explain BTC crash (exactly crash, not up) events that are certainly going to happen. I always thought the media already knows who will be the scapegoat. Price dropped. However, this sort of thing could be a fore taste of things to come. Market manipulations happen. Nowadays you can trade BTC on a leveraged basis. This give people that hold a lot of BTC a huge amount of power. They have enough BTC to move the market any time they want.
So what they can do, for example, is open a “short” position on a leveraged BTC exchange, then DUMP a load of BTC on to the market. Their dump forces the price of BTC down. They “win” their short bet, and (if they so desire) can slowly buy back their BTC at a cheaper price. They can even increase their holding. Remember, the trade is leveraged, which means that they can get 10x or even (in some cases) 100x the percentage move. So if the % move was 2%, they can get a 20% return, or even a 200% return, which can be an incentive for people to play dirty. If you look at a 4 year logarithmic chart you’ll see that the huge bull runs are almost perfectly 8 months apart
Price highs and lows run in a well defined sequence. We are now upon the next 8 month increment also the previous huge bull runs were preceded by unusually long periods of price stability in similar triangle patterns. All of this would lead you to believe the price will go into another huge bull run till the end of a year.
Sure they can do that and no doubt they have recently but in actuality these types of trades are extraordinarily difficult and risky to pull off especially on foreign exchanges with unknown owners who could run with your money at any moment. As with any other trades, timing is paramount. If you're wrong about sentiment there could be a bull whale lying in wait to squeeze the hell out of your short. You also never know if the exchange owner himself is looking to screw you. I've never left a dime on any of these sites and am so glad I didn't which is also why im so skeptical of people who claim they sold out their 100% BTC position @1200. How the hell could they have done that since the only real exchange they would likely have used was gox back in December. And that's when they weren't wiring any USD out so even if you were good enough to have picked the top how could you have gotten the money out. I don't wish any theft on anyone but if some whale is trying to short the price down it would serve him right to get nailed. Now is not the time to try that.
People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well. |
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ugly, just ugly:
*silver falling*
Ugly? Beauty is in the eye of the behloder.  To me, $18 silver is lovely. Can't wait to stack more $20 SAE and Maples! I hope it goes back down to $5/oz...  |
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Update 3.
Assets September 19, 2014.
85% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)
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nope, at least its below the line at the moment
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Has this become an Alibaba thread, or a lawsuit thread.
I thought it was about BTC price movements.
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1) Stocks will crash by 2016 and will mark new 15-20 year lows.
2) Precious metals will survive better but will also decline first before rallying strongly. It is key to own physical precious metal, not paper certificates.
3) The US Dollar will initially fare better against other currencies (particularly against the EUR), but then crash as well and may disappear in its current form by 2017-2018.
4) Overall asset prices and prices of goods will decline = we are in a unprecedented deflation.
Are you saying stocks will crash by January 1st 2016? So within one year and 3.5 months? So if USD will fare better than other currencies and you hold 90% USD, when USD crashes and disappears where will you move your money in 2017-2018? Great questions! First, timing is the most difficult to forecast. Price is easier. Along those lines, the S&P 500 will crash at least to a lower low than in 2009 in USD terms. Quite probably it will fall even lower into the 100 point range. In terms of timing, I'd give a range between 2016 and 2017. We will keep trying to narrow down the timing in the forecasting work we do. Second, when moving out of USD? I will probably move a high percentage into physical hold and silver stored in a safe location like at safe store from safewealth.com. And only keep the needed cash in local currencies to survive and buy food. |
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2.
Assets September 18, 2014.
89% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
4% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)
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I don't think it is entirely fair to compare B&H to someone's trading results purely on past profits of a few years.
1) Unconditional B&H is subject to complete risk of loss. On the other hand, trading is subject to counterparty risk. This risk can be managed in some ways at least (pick a longer term trading style and withdraw your money in between trades, try spread your assets on multiple exchanges). Presumably, this risk will decrease once Bitcoin gets away from shady exchanges and becomes tradeable via ETF on actual brokers.
2) The performance of Bitcoin the past few years may not be the expected outcome, and the strategy that worked very well in the past may not work as well in the future
Not to say buy and hold doesn't have merit. It is a great "set it and forget it" strategy. But say you allocate 5% to BTC and then it becomes 90% because it appreciated so much, then you'll probably want to do risk management either via re-allocation or by trading.
PS: I did not think you lost anything to MtGox, I'm surprised to hear that. Had thought you switched it all to Bitstamp before.
Blitz, well said! On MtGox, I lost some, but it was minor - because indeed I switched most to Stamp before. Where I lots a lot was bitcoinica. |
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My personal outperformance was 1.5-2x vs. buy and holding bitcoins.
BitcoinBullbear.com forecast performance tracking can be found on the website.
And from now on, you can track my portfolio performance live here in this thread.
Since the start, bitcoin is down as predicted and thats why I only keep 1%.
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But yes, I have outperformed buy and hold with bitcoin by orders of magnitude :-) and this led to a very sizable absolute gain. This is now re-invested into other areas.
So you've experienced a +1,000,000x return but you're not rich? You should be on the Forbes list indeed... "by orders of magnitude" = at least 100x better than B&H  so let's say OP just bought 100$ worth of BTC in 2010, that's about 1000BTC at ~0.1$ each 100 * 1000 BTC * 1200 $/BTC = 120 million $ ... yeah that's not rich at all... just moderately wealthy correction. not orders of magnitudes, but 1.5-2x better than B&H. And also recognize that there were hacks and losses due to MtGox and bitcoinica going down. 1.5 * 1 000 BTC * $1 200 USD/BTC = 1 800 000 USD -> "We are talking a couple (1,800) of thousands here" What are you trying to prove here? As I mentioned, when BTC were worth much less, I donated a lot to good projects and lost some during hacks and exchange closures. This is why the real numbers are nowhere near your numbers and I need to work hard everyday. |
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But yes, I have outperformed buy and hold with bitcoin by orders of magnitude :-) and this led to a very sizable absolute gain. This is now re-invested into other areas.
So you've experienced a +1,000,000x return but you're not rich? You should be on the Forbes list indeed... "by orders of magnitude" = at least 100x better than B&H so let's say OP just bought 100$ worth of BTC in 2010, that's about 1000BTC at ~0.1$ each 100 * 1000 BTC * 1200 $/BTC = 120 million $ ... yeah that's not rich at all... just moderately wealthy correction. not orders of magnitudes, but 1.5-2x better than B&H. And also recognize that there were hacks and losses due to MtGox and bitcoinica going down. |
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Why so few cryptos?
Because
i) Cryptos have the second mover disadvantage. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and unless bitcoin runs into a major problem, will always be stronger longterm. Just look at Coke. First mover and always ahead of Pepsi, despite unrelentless attempts of Pepsi to take over market leadership.
ii) Most cryptos do not have a big enough competitive advantage or differentiation to overcome barrier i)
iii) Monero might gain more traction and that's why I hold them
Which ones do you suggest. I am happy to get convinced depending on your arguments.OK thanks, but then why so few BTC? 1% doesn't sound a lot, unless you are very rich.
We are talking a couple of thousands here, but more importantly, the point of this is to show the allocation in percentages, so that rich or less rich people can scale it to their needs.
About why no more BTC? I had close to 100% a while ago. But since the 1200 $ top, I went out. I will go in again when I judge the time is right.Not to be an ass here, but if you were around 5 years ago, how the heck are you not "rich" or at least close to it? I think you should share this as a cautionary tale in your thread for full disclosure. It seems like there is confusion. I have never and will also not here disclose my wealth to anyone. But yes, I have outperformed buy and hold with bitcoin by orders of magnitude :-) and this led to a very sizable absolute gain. This is now re-invested into other areas. But this thread is about a percentage example portfolio approach. |
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90% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
2% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
1% Bitcoin
0.8% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)
If this is meant to be some form of investment strategy then i can't take you seriously. I will share 2 reasons. No doubt the forum will add a few more. 1. 90% investment in cash. Cash isn't an investment at less than 1% return so unless you think every other form of investment is about to devalue, by comparision, then its like putting it under your bed. 2 Having 1% only in bitcoin. What is the point? bitcoin is high risk with high potential return. 1% suggests you don't believe in Bitcoin so why bother as when it flies off to the moon you will enjoy unprecedented returns on almost F! all! Seems to me you are worried about losing more than making. 1. That's exactly what he is postulating. Deflation. 2. Maybe he wants to preserve his capital more and tries to minimize risk by reducing exposure during certain periods. Comparatively, he certainly isn't that risk averse, given that he stated that he held almost 100% in BTC before. You know, trading? 
And indeed, you are right. It is not abou clinging to BTC just because we love it. It is solely about how to best trade it. And apart from some short term opportunities, I do not see any reason to hold or accumulate BTC unless certain technical criteria will have been met. |
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